Redefining pandemic preparedness:Multidisciplinary insights from the CERP modelling workshop in infectious diseases,workshop report

In July 2023,the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 pandemic.This report summarizes the rich discussions that occurred during the workshop.The workshop participants discussed multisource data integration and highlighted the benefits of combining traditional surveillance with more novel data sources like mobility data,social media,and wastewater monitoring.Significant advancements were noted in the development of predictive models,with examples from various countries showcasing the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence in detecting and monitoring disease trends.The role of open collaboration between various stakeholders in modelling was stressed,advocating for the continuation of such partnerships beyond the pandemic.A major gap identified was the absence of a common international framework for data sharing,which is crucial for global pandemic preparedness.Overall,the workshop underscored the need for robust,adaptable modelling frameworks and the integration of different data sources and collaboration across sectors,as key elements in enhancing future pandemic response and preparedness.

Large-scale frequent testing and tracing to supplement control of Covid-19 and vaccination rollout constrained by supply

Non-pharmaceutical interventions(NPI)were implemented all around the world in the fight against COVID-19:Social distancing,shelter-in-place,mask wearing,etc.to mitigate transmission,together with testing and contact-tracing to identify,isolate and treat the infected.The majority of countries have relied on the former measures,followed by a ramping up of their testing and tracing capabilities.We present here the cases of South Korea,Italy,Canada and the United States,as a look back to lessons that can be drawn for controlling the pandemic,specifically through the means of testing and tracing.By fitting a disease transmission model to daily case report data in each of the four countries,we first show that their combination of social-distancing and testing/tracing have had a significant impact on the evolution of their first wave of pandemic curves.We then consider the hypothetical scenario where the only NPI measures implemented past the first pandemic wave consisted of isolating individuals due to repeated,country-scale testing and contact tracing,as a mean of lifting social distancing measures without a resurgence of COVID-19.We give estimates on the average isolation rates needed to occur in each country.We find that testing and tracing each individual of a country,on average,every 4.5 days(South Korea),5.7 days(Canada),6 days(Italy)and 3.5 days(US),would have been sufficient to mitigate their second pandemic waves.We also considered the situation in Canada to see how a frequent large-scale asymptomatic testing and contact tracing could have been used in combination with vaccination rollout to reduce the infection in the population.This could offer an alternative approach towards preventing and controlling an outbreak when vaccine supply is limited,while testing capacity has been increasingly enhanced.