澳大利亚墨累-达令河流域水文气候变化的影响与适应对策

应澳大利亚联邦科学与工业研究组织(Commonwealth scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, CSIRO)邀请,2018年4月清华大学组织科技考察团赴澳大利亚墨累-达令河流域开展为期一周的科学考察。考察团从墨累河出海口逆流而上,通过学习交流、现场考察和访问农场等方式,与澳大利亚同行们进行了深入交流,对澳大利亚墨累-达令河流域的气候变化与水的影响与适应对策研究,尤其是陆面水文-气候、极端水文研究、水资源管理体系的最新动态,及其气候变化应对与减缓、极端水文事件风险管理等进一步了解。此次考察对认识多时空尺度的气候-陆面-水文相互作用机理及其对自然强迫和人类活动(含人为强迫和下垫面人类活动)的响应机制,揭示全球气候系统能量-水循环动态演变规律和极端水文事件变化成因,构建全球增暖背景下应对极端水文事件的风险管理体系,提出中国适应性对策具有重要的借鉴意义。

气候变化条件下中国灌溉面积变化的产量效应

灌溉可以有效缓解气候变化对粮食生产的不利影响。采用中国不同区域2006-2019年实际灌溉用水量,对4个气候模式(GFDL-ESM2M,Had GEM2-ES,IPSL-CAM5-LR,MIROC5)驱动下的3种作物模型(GEPIC、PEPIC和LPJml)的灌溉用水量进行评估,优选模拟结果较好的前5个模式组合,分析RCP2.6和RCP6.0情景下,2021-2050年中国玉米、水稻、大豆和小麦产量变化,评估灌溉面积扩张的增产效应。结果显示:未来气候变化下,2021-2050年降水量的增加使得中国水稻和大豆以及北方地区玉米和小麦产量均呈现增长趋势,其中东北80%左右的地区和西北70%左右的地区玉米产量将提高0.2~0.8 t/hm^(2),东北85%左右的地区水稻和大豆增产幅度分别超过1.0、0.5 t/hm^(2),东北90%左右的地区和西北75%左右的地区小麦产量增幅分别介于1.0~2.0、0.5~1.0 t/hm^(2)之间。降水量的减少使得西南南部地区的玉米和小麦产量均下降0.2 t/hm^(2)左右。不同区域玉米和小麦的增产效应差异明显,由于北部地区光热条件较差、小麦基础产量较低,使得小麦灌溉增产潜力(1%~11%)以及增产效率((0.12±0.06)kg/m^(2))均较高,北部地区小麦的灌溉面积扩张可有效应对气候变化的不利影响。

黄河流域内蒙古段植被时空变化特征及条带状分布成因

监测干旱、半干旱地区植被覆盖度的动态变化,评估大尺度区域地质背景,尤其是活动构造在植被变化过程中发挥的作用对植被时空格局的认识具有重要意义。黄河流域内蒙古段地处干旱半干旱区,植被多依赖于地下水;且该地区活动构造较发育,是认识植被非地带性特征的理想区域。基于中分辨率成像光谱仪(MODIS)、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、气象与土地利用数据,对2000—2018年黄河流域内蒙古段植被覆盖度(FVC)的时空变化及稳定性进行分析,在此基础上针对河套段植被条带状特征及其成因进行讨论。结果表明,近20年研究区的FVC总体表现为增加趋势。降雨增加是大黑河流域、浑河流域及十大孔兑区域FVC增加的主要原因,沙漠地区FVC的增加得益于三北防护林工程建设。大黑河与浑河流域水分条件较好,物种多样性丰富,植被覆盖度高,能较好的抵御气候变化;而十大孔兑区域和沙漠地区FVC较低,生态系统脆弱,对气候波动的响应较大。河套灌区受人类活动主导,对气候变化的敏感性较低。河套段山前植被赋存环境为条带状地下水溢出带,在地下水储量增多条件下呈条带状增加趋势;而在山前过渡带,新构造运动及其造成的较大地表高差使得土壤层薄且储水能力较差,表现为FVC的高波动。现今黄河干流沿岸植被受土地利用转变影响整体减少;且在河流摆动、河道变迁扰动下,稳定性较差。河套盆地与鄂尔多斯台地边界处,受隐伏断裂和地震活动影响,地下水易沿带状透水断裂下渗,难以维持浅表水分和稳定的补给条件,使得FVC呈线状显著降低,且稳定性较差。研究从宏观水文地质条件和地表过程的角度,更加深入认识了植被空间分布的非地带性特征,为相似地区的研究提供了较好的科学依据。

Runoff of arid and semi-arid regions simulated and projected by CLM-DTVGM and its multi-scale fluctuations as revealed by EEMD analysis

Runoff is a major component of the water cycle, and its multi-scale fluctuations are important to water resources management across arid and semi-arid regions. This paper coupled the Distributed Time Variant Gain Model （DTVGM） into the Community Land Model （CLM 3.5）, replacing the TOPMODEL-based method to simulate runoff in the arid and semi-arid regions of China. The coupled model was calibrated at five gauging stations for the period 1980-2005 and validated for the period 2006-2010. Then, future runoff （2010-2100） was simulated for different Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） emission scenarios. After that, the spatial distributions of the future runoff for these scenarios were discussed, and the multi-scale fluctuation characteristics of the future annual runoff for the RCP scenarios were explored using the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition （EEMD） analysis method. Finally, the decadal variabilities of the future annual runoff for the entire study area and the five catchments in it were investigated. The results showed that the future annual runoff had slowly decreasing trends for scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 during the period 2010-2100, whereas it had a non-monotonic trend for the RCP 4.5 scenario, with a slow increase after the 2050s. Additionally, the future annual runoff clearly varied over a decadal time scale, indicating that it had clear divisions between dry and wet periods. The longest dry period was approximately 15 years （2040-2055） for the RCP 2.6 scenario and 25 years （2045-2070） for the RCP 4.5 scenario. However, the RCP 8.5 scenario was predicted to have a long dry period starting from 2045. Under these scenarios, the water resources situation of the study area will be extremely severe. Therefore, adaptive water management measures addressing climate change should be adopted to proactively confront the risks of water resources.

陆面水文—气候耦合模拟研究进展

陆面水文过程是全球/区域气候模式十分重要而又十分薄弱的环节。本文通过科学文献计量法,分析了陆面水文—气候耦合研究的发展状况及研究热点和趋势,并进一步对研究中存在的问题和挑战进行综述和探讨。现有多数气候模式中的陆面模式主要基于一维垂向结构设计,缺乏对流域尺度水文过程的精细描述,尤其缺乏下垫面人类活动影响的描述。因此,为了科学认识水文过程与气候变化的相互反馈作用机制,大量研究主要通过耦合流域水文模型与气候模式,研究不同时空尺度下水文过程变化的气候反馈效应。陆面过程模式中水文过程的改进和大尺度水文模型发展为陆面水文—气候耦合模拟奠定基础,在此基础上,陆面水文—气候耦合研究正从传统的单向耦合研究逐步发展为考虑气候—水文反馈的双向耦合研究。然而,双向耦合研究远未成熟,其问题集中表现为陆面水文—气候模型耦合过程如何匹配并提高系统稳定性、研制有效的尺度转换方案、完善参数化方案并评估参数不确定性、研制有效参数移植方法并提高模型适用性以及高分辨率甚至超分辨率模拟等方面,逐步解决上述问题并提高模拟精度是未来水文—气候耦合模拟研究的重要发展方向。

基于CMIP6的莱茵河流域极端水文事件变化特征研究

基于第6次国际耦合模式比较计划(the coupled model intercomparison program in phase 6,CMIP6)中的12个气候模式,以莱茵河流域为研究对象,开展了气候模式对极端气温和极端降水模拟能力的评估优选。在此基础上,应用多模式集合平均方法预估了不同情景下未来时期(2021—2050年)极端气温和降水的变化情况,并通过构建SWAT(soil and water assessment tool)模型预估了未来极端洪水变化趋势。结果表明:未来时期莱茵河流域极端降水量增加且基本呈上升趋势,流域内极端高温事件增加;流域内罗克瑙站和特里尔站未来时期年径流量相对历史时期有所增加,洛比特站和法兰克福站则减少;不同情景下洛比特站、法兰克福站和罗克瑙站未来极端洪水强度和频率相对历史时期均呈减小趋势,特里尔站变化的不确定性较大。

A review of fully coupled atmosphere-hydrology simulations

The terrestrial hydrological process is an essential but weak link in global/regional climate models. In this paper, the development status, research hotspots and trends in coupled atmosphere-hydrology simulations are identified through a bibliometric analysis, and the challenges and opportunities in this field are reviewed and summarized. Most climate models adopt the one-dimensional (vertical) land surface parameterization, which does not include a detailed description of basin-scale hydrological processes, particularly the effects of human activities on the underlying surfaces. To understand the interaction mechanism between hydrological processes and climate change, a large number of studies focused on the climate feedback effects of hydrological processes at different spatio-temporal scales, mainly through the coupling of hydrological and climate models. The improvement of the parameterization of hydrological process and the development of large-scale hydrological model in land surface process model lay a foundation for terrestrial hydrological-climate coupling simulation, based on which, the study of terrestrial hydrological-climate coupling is evolving from the traditional unidirectional coupling research to the two-way coupling study of "climate-hydrology" feedback. However, studies of fully coupled atmosphere-hydrology simulations (also called atmosphere-hydrology two-way coupling) are far from mature. The main challenges associated with these studies are: improving the potential mismatch in hydrological models and climate models; improving the stability of coupled systems; developing an effective scale conversion scheme; perfecting the parameterization scheme; evaluating parameter uncertainties; developing effective methodology for model parameter transplanting; and improving the applicability of models and high/super-resolution simulation. Solving these problems and improving simulation accuracy are directions for future hydro-climate coupling simulation research.

Multi-object approach and its appfication to adaptive water management under climate change

This paper addresses issues on adaptive water management under the impact of climate change. Based on a set of comprehensive indicators of water system, a decision making approach of multi-objects is developed and applied to quantify water adaptive man- agement for the demands of water sustainable use, water environmental protection and eco-water requirement under the climate change. For this study in China, two key indicators are proposed, namely （1） the water resources vulnerability （V） that was represented by inte- grated sensitivity （S） and resilience （C） of climate change impact on water resources, and （2） the sustainability of socio-economy and water environment, marked by DD, that is integrated scaler of socio-economic development （EG） based on the amount of GDP and the water en- vironment and relative eco-system quality （LI）. To find a reasonable solution for adaptive water management, a multi-objective decision making model of adaptive water management is further developed and the multi-objective model was transformed into an integrated single optimization model through developing an integrated measure function, called as VDD=DD/V. This approach has been applied to adaptive water resources planning and management for case study of China with new policy, called as the strict management of water resources based on three red line controls, i.e., the control of total water use by the total water re- sources allocation, the control of lower water use efficiency by the water demand manage- ment and the control of the total waste water load by water quality management in the East- ern China Monsoon Region that covers major eight big river basins including Yangtze River, Yellow River, Haihe River and Huaihe River. It is shown that the synthetic representation of water resource vulnerability and socio-economic sustainability by the integrated objective function （VDD） and integrated decision making model are workable and practicable. Adaptive management effect of the criterion compliance rate and water use efficiency are more ap- preciable through new water policy of the three red line controls, which can reduce 21.3% of the water resources vulnerability （V） and increase 18.4% of the sustainability of socio- economy and water environment （DD） for the unfavorable scenario of climate change in2030.