基于交通管控效应的中国COVID-19疫情扩散的时空特征及其危险性

基于中国各级卫健委公布的疫情数据和全国列车数据,结合交通管控措施解析了中国COVID-19疫情扩散的时空特征和危害性,以及湖北“封省”对全国铁路系统的影响,结果发现:1)中国的疫情增长过程高度符合Logistic分布;空间上由湖北往东、南方向蔓延强度较大,各省内部疫情较为严重的地区通常为省会或经济发达城市。基于交通管控对疫情扩散的扰动,揭示了COVID-19的平均潜伏期约为4 d;并基于此测算了疫情的基本再生指数(R0),结果显示:R0整体上呈波动下降趋势,截至2020-04-08全国各地区的R0均趋于1;湖北以外的愈亡比远高于湖北,表明在医疗资源充足的情况下,疫情的危险性可以大幅降低。2)通过湖北“封省”管控前后的铁路网络对比得出,湖北“封省”措施对中心性较高的城市影响较大,尤其是长三角地区,对中心性较低的城市影响微弱;此外,“封省”措施对全国铁路网络整体连通性不会产生根本性的影响。

不同发展模式下资源环境承载力评价——以海南省为例

文章关注于产业、人口与资源环境要素的作用关系,建构了资源环境承载力综合评价框架,并以海南省为案例区开展应用研究。该框架首先对区域产业重要性进行评价并分级,为产业结构调整提供依据;其次解析了区域产业、人口资源消耗与污染排放强度,最后,基于产业评价结果设定不同的产业结构调整情景,结合产业和人口的资源消耗与污染排放强度评价不同产业结构下的资源环境承载力,即产业和人口的规模上限。结果表明:2016年海南省的经济规模并未超载,产业有进一步发展空间。其中土地资源成为海南省发展的首要限制因素,其次是水环境;海南经济效益较高的支柱产业和基础性产业多为高耗水、高污染的产业,亟需加强水资源的集约利用,并降低污染排放强度。为提升经济发展规模上限,需要培育低能耗、低排放的产业。文章建构的资源环境承载力评价方法将产业、人口与资源环境相联系,其评价结果政策意义更为明确,可为优化产业结构调整、控制产业及人口发展规模提供决策参考。

城市住宅空间分布模拟研究

构建城市住宅开发模拟模型(FDM),并以北京市为案例,模拟城市住宅规模时空演化。FDM综合考虑了政策限制和市场规律模拟开发商决策行为,分4个步骤预测城市住宅面积的空间分布格局演变过程:①假设无政府限制条件、开发商追求最大利润的前提下,预测城市住宅开发总面积;②在政府限制条件下,对上述预测结果予以修正,预测实际住宅开发总面积;③根据各区块的利润以及政策许可对住宅开发面积进行空间配置;④确定各个区块的建筑规模总量。北京案例表明,延续近几年住宅开发模式,未来住宅规模的增长主要发生在五环外,尤其是五环到六环的区域,而中心城区的开发程度较弱。一方面是由于城市中心地带已经被高度开发,土地利用空间较小;另一方面与政府疏解中心人口、缓解交通阻塞的政策有关。FDM模型的开发为城市土地利用政策的制定提供了良好的模拟分析工具,为城市空间模拟分析研究提供方法上的参考。

城市群形成理论建构与实证分析--产业演进视角

城市群在国家发展战略中日益得到重视,也成为学界研究的热点,但目前关于城市群形成扩展机制的研究仍然薄弱,理论体系尚未形成。文章构建了城市群研究理论框架,基于此解析了城市群扩张过程,认为:在城市群空间形成过程中,核心城市制造业首先得以发展,在经济发展至一定水平后,用地开始紧张、地价逐步攀升、经营成本上升;为寻求更低成本,部分制造业逐步外推至周边城市,带动周边城市发展,同时核心城市的生产性服务业得以集聚并服务于整个城市群;城市群空间扩张、产业结构演变将导致劳动力市场和就业结构发生变化,形成高收入群体,引发收入分配、空间公平性等社会秩序问题,同时经济的发展会引起资源环境等问题;此外,随着周边城市的不断发展,彼此联系不断加强,形成复杂的城市网络。基于该框架,文章以长三角城市群为例解析了城市群扩张过程,并对比分析了京津冀城市群发育滞后的原因。文章对城市群这一“黑盒”做了进一步破解,在探索城市群扩张机理、建构城市群研究理论体系上迈出了一步,理论框架给出了亟须进一步探索的研究内容。

资源型城市脆弱性评价和预警机制研究:以山西省为例

资源型城市面临经济、社会和生态环境等多方面发展问题,制约了其转型升级。加强资源型城市脆弱性评价研究有利于全面评估其发展面临的现实困难,合理有效的预警机制为其发展方向调整提供依据。本文构建了资源型城市脆弱性评价指标体系,运用TOPSIS模型对其进行综合评价,以山西省为例进行实证研究,并基于山西省资源型城市脆弱性评价结果和现实情况,对其预警机制从前期到中远期具体措施进行了初探,为建立预警机制提供理论支撑,具有现实意义。

Urban Agglomeration Formation and Its Spatiotemporal Expansion Process in China: From the Perspective of Industrial Evolution

Urban agglomeration research has received increasing attention in China’s national development strategies, and has become a hot topic in academic research. This study develops a theoretical framework that explores the formation mechanism and expansion process of urban agglomerations from the perspective of industrial evolution, and identifies the development issues and their causes by taking Yangtze Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations as case studies. In the process of urban agglomeration formation within a free market, as has happened in Yangtze Delta region, the central city develops first, its secondary industry is then transferred to its neighboring cities, and the work division and cooperation with the neighboring cities is gradually established. However, in the 1990 s, aiming to become an international metropolis, Beijing implemented a series of administrative policies to encourage the reduction of the secondary industry and the development of the tertiary industry, before its secondary industry were fully developed and transferred to its neighboring cities. This delayed the integration process and the development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration. This study builds a good foundation for the construction of the theoretical system’s urban agglomeration study, and provides references for decision making in an urban agglomeration development.

Urban Metabolism Based on Emergy and Slack Based Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

The key to studying urban sustainable development depends on quantifying stores, efficiencies of urban metabolisms and capturing urban metabolisms′ mechanisms. This paper builds up the metabolic emergy account and quantifies some important concepts of emergy stores. Emphasis is placed on the urban metabolic model based on the slack based model(SBM) method to measure urban metabolic efficiencies. Urban metabolic mechanisms are discussed by using the regression method. By integrating these models, this paper analyzes the urban metabolic development in Beijing from 2001 to 2010. We conclude that the metabolic emergy stores of Beijing increased significantly from 2001 to 2010, with the emergy imported accounting for most of the increase. The metabolic efficiencies in Beijing have improved since the 2008 Olympic Games. The population, economic growth, industrial structures, and environmental governance positively affect the overall urban metabolism, while the land expansion, urbanization and environmentally technical levels hinder the improving of urban metabolic efficiencies. The SBM metabolic method and the regression model based on the emergy analysis provide insights into the urban metabolic efficiencies and the mechanism. They can promote to integrate such concepts into their sustainability analyses and policy decisions.

资源环境承载力评价方法回顾与展望

中国经济的快速发展导致资源大量消耗和环境污染加剧,资源环境承载力研究成为热点。本文对国内外资源环境承载力相关研究进行了系统的回顾,以人口总量为出口界定了资源环境承载力概念,在此基础上对资源环境承载力评价方法研究进行了展望,总结分析了资源环境承载力评价方法存在的不足。研究认为:目前对资源环境承载力认知并未统一,评价方法也存在差异;研究侧重单要素评价,而对资源环境要素与社会经济要素的相互作用机理、区域资源环境承载力综合评价研究较为薄弱;在开放的系统下如何剥离要素流动导致的资源环境压力转移,率定社会经济系统对当地资源环境压力,透析区域资源环境承载力并提供可操作的政策建议有待进一步深化。为此,将区域社会经济同人口、资源、生态环境予以集成,开展综合评价的理论方法研究具有重要意义。

资源环境承载力综合评价方法在西藏产业结构调整中的应用

经济的快速发展造成资源的过度消耗和环境恶化,资源环境承载力研究逐渐得以关注。本文构建了产业、人口、经济、资源、环境综合分析框架,该框架首先评价各产业对区域社会经济的重要性,确定产业结构调整方向;进而分析产业、人口与资源环境间相互作用机制,明晰产业经济、人口规模与资源利用、环境污染的关系;然后开展资源环境承载力综合评价,为实现环境友好、资源有效利用前提下的最大社会经济发展规模提供依据。西藏自治区案例研究结果显示,有色金属矿采选业、旅游业、酒饮料和精制茶制造业对当地社会经济系统有着重要作用,成为支柱产业;不同发展情景的资源环境承载力评价,确定了资源环境限制下各种产业结构调整所能支撑的最大人口和经济规模,为区域产业发展提供决策依据。本文所构建的分析框架可为实现"社会经济-资源环境"系统可持续发展提供决策支撑。该框架的建立增强了资源环境承载力评价方法在辅助决策方面的可操作性,有助于推进区域资源环境承载力理论研究和实践应用。

资源环境承载力与中国经济发展可持续性模拟

1978年改革开放以来中国经济创造了长期高速增长的奇迹,但人和自然关系出现严重不协调,突出表现为资源的过度消耗与环境污染的加剧。与此同时,为实现2050年成为现代化强国的发展目标,中国亟需持续发展。为此,中国学者和政府需着力解决问题是,在未来中长期内,中国应当期望多高的经济增长率及其对应的发展模式或调控手段?本文对影响乃至决定国民经济增长的资源环境支撑系统以及建立在这之上的发展模式进行分析,揭示经济增长及发展模式与支撑系统之间的耦合关系,模拟发展与环境之间相互作用过程,阐释未来经济增长可能的方案及其对资源环境支撑系统(主要因素)的要求,对中国资源环境状态和发展状态做出预警。模拟结果显示,为实现2050年进入发达国家行列并保持良好生态环境的发展目标,在考虑技术进步会改善资源利用效率和污染排放的前提下,中国采取3.8%~6.3%的经增速较为适宜。在该区间内,3.8%~4.4%是较为安全的发展速度,而4.4%~6.3%的发展速度则要求较高的技术进步。本文所构建的系统动力学模型可用于对比分析不同发展情景,选择更优发展方案,为实现国家的可持续发展提供决策支持。本研究也是对"未来地球"框架文件的响应,从人口和产业发展速度方面发展了资源环境承载力的理论体系,具有重要理论探索意义和应用价值。

城市土地利用—交通集成模型的构建与应用

中国目前正经历着城市化转型,科学合理的空间政策是城市可持续发展的重要保障,因此开展政策情景实验、辅助空间决策具有重要现实意义。本文构建了土地利用—交通集成模型,模拟城市活动空间分布,称作SDA(Spatial Distribution of Activities)模型。该模型主要包含4个子模型:交通模型、家庭区位模型、经济活动区位模型、房租模型;并以北京市为例模拟土地利用政策对城市空间发展的影响。研究表明,延续过去5年(2009-2013年)房地产开发模式至2030年,则由于周边房地产开发数量较高、房租较低,越来越多的人口和企业将向郊区聚集(增长速度更大)。该趋势与目前疏解北京社会经济活动、缓解交通拥堵的规划目标相一致,模型可以很好地检验土地利用政策情景影响。而"基于活动"的模型被认为是模型发展趋势,因此,本文构建的SDA模型不仅可以检验不同政策对城市空间影响、辅助城市空间决策,也有助于推动LUTI模型的发展及其在国内的应用,丰富和发展国内城市空间模拟分析的研究内容。

中国高铁站的溢出效应及其空间分异——基于夜间灯光数据的实证分析

高铁作为中国交通运输史上一次划时代的变革,对沿线地区的经济发展和区域空间格局产生了重大影响。准确度量高铁站溢出效应及其空间分异规律,对于布设高铁站点、规划高铁新城具有重要意义。本研究解译了2017年前开通的527个高铁站点(对应180个城市)周围地区2004—2017连续14年的夜间灯光数据,采用双重差分法测度了高铁站溢出效应,并解析其空间分异规律。研究发现:第一,在全国层面,中国高铁的投运使站点周围区域经济活动强度提升约4.7%,其中东部地区高铁站溢出效应更为显著。第二,同城高铁站及机场的存在会削弱高铁站的溢出效应,其中机场和高铁站的竞争关系在发达城市更为显著。第三,城市规模与高铁站溢出效应呈非线性关系,特大城市的高铁站溢出效应最为显著;城市第三产业的发展能够提升高铁站溢出效应。此外,与北京、上海、广州(北上广)三大都市的距离是影响高铁站溢出效应的重要因素,随着距离的增加高铁站溢出效应变得不显著甚至为负。上述结论可为高铁站选址、高铁新城规划建设提供重要参考。

基于新闻大数据的北极地区地缘关系研究

随着全球气候变暖,北极地区海冰大面积消融,引发了严重环境问题,同时使得北极航道成为可能,北极地区的战略地位显著提升。作为近北极国家,北极地区国际关系变化对中国的北极政策有直接影响。全面实时地分析北极地区地缘关系及其变化特征,对中国制定北极地区的政治、经济、外交政策具有重要指导作用。海量全球实时开放数据库的出现以及大数据技术的发展,如GDELT新闻事件数据库提供了覆盖全世界的源于各国主要媒体服务平台的新闻数据,为地缘关系实时监控及分析提供了可能性。本文利用GDELT数据库,引入labeledLDA主题分析的理论与方法,挖掘了2013—2019年北极圈内8个国家和地区社会发展关键要素,构建了国家(地区)交互网络,发现了北极地区国家(地区)之间关系的演变格局。主要结论为:(1)北极地区热点新闻主题聚焦于气候变化/冰盖融化,冰盖融化是北极地缘关系变化的主要驱动因子;(2)冰盖融化新闻热度与海冰监测数据变化存在极强的相关性;(3)随着冰盖融化,北极地区的社会经济军事活动激增,其主导权的争夺日趋激烈,总体呈现出俄罗斯、加拿大主导的格局。

中文文本蕴含气象灾害事件信息多模型融合抽取方法

随着气候变暖加剧,全球极端天气事件频发,重大气象灾害的发生频率与日俱增。研究气候变化与气象灾害发生频率的关系,对于气候变化背景下的防灾减灾具有重要意义。文献资料及泛在网络数据中蕴含了海量的气象灾害时空事件,为此,本文基于自然语言处理技术研发了文本气象灾害时空事件自动抽取方法。(1)提出了基于专业文献的由粗到精的气象灾害标注语料训练库构建方法。首先针对不同文献资料存在的歧义和不兼容等问题,构建了面向文本事件统一的气象灾害知识体系。然后构建了基于章节结构的粗标注方法,分别针对长文本(现代文)和短文本(文言文)研发了基于Labeled LDA模型及基于TF-IDF和N-gram模型的精细标注语料筛选方法,解决了语料库的快速构建问题;(2)基于BERT-CNN模型研发了融合上下文语义特征和多粒度的局部语义特征的、面向长短文本一体化处理的气象灾害时空事件自动分类方法;(3)利用该方法分别从文言文和泛在网络数据中自动抽取了灾害时空事件,其宏F1值分别达到89.09%和80.06%,主要气象灾害时空事件分布与专业统计数据相关性较高;(4)基于以上结果,重建了我国各历史时期灾害时空演变过程,发现各时期灾害数据量整体呈现出逐步上升趋势,暴雨灾害、洪涝灾害与干旱灾害是影响我国的主要灾种。本方法既可实现网络长文本事件的自动发现,也可实现文言文短文本事件的自动检测,为文本数据便捷应用于气象灾害研究和监测提供了新的技术方法。

A study on urban economic vulnerability evaluation system

Chinese cities face high and rapidly increasing exposure to disasters. Reducing disaster vulnerability is a direct and effective countermeasure for disaster management and risk reduction, which requires first and foremost objective assessment of the vulnerabilities of societies and economies. Assessment of economic vulnerability is a significant step in risk evaluation, a prerequisite for effective disaster prevention planning and an important base for emergency management. This paper develops a model for assessing economic vulnerability, which takes into account of the size of enterprises, the vulnerability and importance of various industrial sectors and economic density. Based on the model, this paper develops an urban economic vulnerability evaluation system and applies it to Haidian District in Beijing, the results help identify where in its 647 blocks are highly and very highly vulnerable in terms of economies, and it provides useful and practical information for pre-disaster prevention planning, disaster preparedness and emergency management. The economic vulnerability assessment model and the system developed in this study make it possible for the government to quickly evaluate the general economic vulnerability and identify the specific vulnerable areas, making contribution to disaster management information system and decision support system.

Modelling urban spatial impacts of land-use/transport policies

China is now experiencing rapid urbanization. Powerful tools are required to assess its urban spatial policies before implemented toward a more competitive and sustainable development paradigm. This study develops a Land Use Transport Interaction(LUTI) model to evaluate the impacts of urban land-use policies on urban spatial development. The model consists of four sub-models, i.e., transport, residential location, employment location and real estate rent sub-models. It is then applied to Beijing metropolitan area to forecast the urban activity evolution trend based on the land-use policies between 2009 and 2013. The modeling results show that more and more residents and enterprises in the city choose to agglomerate on outskirts, and new centers gradually emerge to share the services originally delivered by central Beijing. The general trend verifies the objectives of the government plan to develop more sub-centers around Beijing. The proposed activity-based model provides a distinct tool for the urban spatial policy makers in China. Further research is also discussed at the end.

Economic sustainability of China's growth from the perspective of its resource and environmental supply system:National scale modeling and policy analysis

Since the implementation of the economic reform and opening up policy in 1978,China has miraculously created long-term high-speed economic growth,but has also had to face the problem of excessive consumption of resources as well as an intensification of environmental pollution.As a result,China is now facing a slowdown in development.China must maintain a certain speed of development to realize its goal of being a powerful nation,and becoming a developed country by 2050.To this end,China is facing a transformation of its economic development.There is a need to agree on an expected economic growth rate,along with the corresponding development modes or means of regulation in the medium-and long-term periods.This study developed a systematic-dynamic model to simulate the coupling relationship between economic growth,development modes,and the environmental supply system,and explored the possible options for future economic growth as well as the resource use and environmental protection requirements(the main factors).The results showed that to achieve the development goal of becoming a developed country by 2050,while maintaining a good ecological environment,the suitable growth rate for China's economy is 3.8%–6.3%.Within this range,a growth rate of 3.8%–4.4%was found to be relatively safe,while a growth rate of 4.4%–6.3%required further technical progress.This study provides an early warning in regard to China's environmental and development status.The study was a response to the"Future Earth"framework document and,in terms of development speed,it developed a theoretical system for the determination of resource and environmental carrying capacity(RECC).

Application of an evaluation method of resource and environment carrying capacity in the adjustment of industrial structure in Tibet

With the degradation of natural resources and environment caused by industrial development in some developing countries,the requirement of implementing a“social ecological”approach to development is imminent.Resource and environment carrying capacity provides a means of assessing regional development potential by measuring regional sustainable development in terms of economy,population and resources&environment.This study develops a conceptual framework for resource and environment carrying capacity estimation to support the co-development planning of industries,population and resources&environment.First,the framework constructs an index system for evaluating importance of industry or influence based on the role of industry played in the local socio-economic system.Then,the framework computes the quantitative relations through the importance of local industry,population size and resource utilization and environment effects,and subsequently estimates the resource and environment carrying capacity of the study area.With a particular attention to its land resources,water resources and environment,the Tibet case study shows that:the non-ferrous metal mining,tourism,liquor and refined tea industries play a pillar role in the Tibet’s socio-economic system;under each industrial structure,land resource carrying capacity is the weakest,and water resources carrying capacity is the strongest;to focus on tourism will improve local resource and environment carrying capacity.The research results provide a solid guide for Tibet government’s co-actions in industrial restructuring,ecological protection,and the pursuit of economic development.This study will contribute to bridge the gap between theoretical research and practical applications of resource and environment carrying capacity,and help local governments plan the regional“socio-ecological”sustainable development.

Review of and prospects for China＇s human and economic geography

The ＂High-Level Forum of the Development of China＇s Human Geography Under the Background of Change＂ was held in Beijing on January 22-23, 2016. More than 30 pro-fessors attended this forum. At this conference, they discussed the major progress made towards developing China＇s human geography, as well as the existing problems, limiting fac- tors, opportunities, international collaborations, emerging directions, and prospects in the development of this discipline. In recent years human geography has boomed, generating many important opportunities for its development. Establishing an academic community for joint research on major research issues and collaborative innovation is a promising and im- portant route to take. We should embrace both domestic and international characteristics, to promote China＇s human geography onto the world stage. Meanwhile, the cultivation of vari- ous scholarly talents is also of great value to enrich and advance the discipline.

Spatio-temporal evolution and influencing factors of geopolitical relations among Arctic countries based on news big data

Global warming has caused the Arctic Ocean ice cover to shrink.This endangers the environment but has made traversing the Arctic channel possible.Therefore,the strategic position of the Arctic has been significantly improved.As a near-Arctic country,China has formulated relevant policies that will be directly impacted by changes in the international relations between the eight Arctic countries(regions).A comprehensive and real-time analysis of the various characteristics of the Arctic geographical relationship is required in China,which helps formulate political,economic,and diplomatic countermeasures.Massive global real-time open databases provide news data from major media in various countries.This makes it possible to monitor geographical relationships in real-time.This paper explores key elements of the social development of eight Arctic countries(regions)over 2013-2019 based on the GDELT database and the method of labeled latent Dirichlet allocation.This paper also constructs the national interaction network and identifies the evolution pattern for the relationships between Arctic countries(regions).The following conclusions are drawn.(1)Arctic news hotspot is now focusing on climate change/ice cap melting which is becoming the main driving factor for changes in geographical relationships in the Arctic.(2)There is a strong correlation between the number of news pieces about ice cap melting and the sea ice area.(3)With the melting of the ice caps,the social,economic,and military activities in the Arctic have been booming,and the competition for dominance is becoming increasingly fierce.In general,there is a pattern of domination by Russia and Canada.