Stress rise precursor to earthquakes in the Tibetan Plateau

Earthquake prediction thus far has proven to be a very difficult task, but changes in situ stress appear to offer a viable approach for forecasting large earthquakes in Tibet and perhaps other continental regions. High stress anomalies formed along active faults before large earthquakes and disappeared soon after the earthquakes occurred in the Tibetan Plateau. Principle stress increased up to ~2 -?5 times higher than background stress to form high stress anomalies along causative faults before the Ms 8.1 West Kunlun Pass earthquake in November 2001, Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake in May 2008, Ms 6.6 Nimu earthquake in October 2009, Ms 7.1 Yushu earthquake in April 2010 and the Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake in April 2013. Stress near the epicenters rapidly increased 0.10 - 0.12 MPa over 45 days, ~8 months before the Ms 6.6 Nimu earthquake occurred. The high principle stress anomalies decreased quickly to the normal stress state in ~8 -?12 months after the Ms 8.1 West Kunlun Pass and the Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquakes. These high stress anomalies and their demise appear directly related to the immediate stress rise along a fault prior to the earthquakes and the release during the event. Thus, the stress rise appears to be a viable precursor in prediction of large continental earthquakes as in the Tibetan Plateau.

Crustal Stress State and Seismic Hazard along Southwest Segment of the Longmenshan Thrust Belt after Wenchuan Earthquake

The crustal stress and seismic hazard estimation along the southwest segment of the Longmenshan thrust belt after the Wenchuan Earthquake was conducted by hydraulic fracturing for in-situ stress measurements in four boreholes at the Ridi, Wasigou, Dahegou, and Baoxing sites in 2003, 2008, and 2010. The data reveals relatively high crustal stresses in the Kangding region （Ridi, Wasigou, and Dahegou sites） before and after the Wenchuan Earthquake, while the stresses were relatively low in the short time after the earthquake. The crustal stress in the southwest of the Longmenshan thrust belt, especially in the Kangding region, may not have been totally released during the earthquake, and has since increased. Furthermore, the Coulomb failure criterion and Byerlee＇s law are adopted to analyzed in-situ stress data and its implications for fault activity along the southwest segment. The magnitudes of in-situ stresses are still close to or exceed the expected lower bound for fault activity, revealing that the studied region is likely to be active in the future. From the conclusions drawn from our and other methods, the southwest segment of the Longmenshan thrust belt, especially the Baoxing region, may present a future seismic hazard.

The Stress State of the Beichuan-Jiangyou Segment of the Longmenshan Fault before and after the Wenchuan M_S 8.0 Earthquake

After the Wenchuan MS 8.0 Earthquake, which occurred on May 12, 2008, in Sichuan Province, China, we conducted a series of hydraulic fracturing stress measurements in three 200 m deep boreholes（ZK01, ZK02, and ZK03） drilled in Beichuan and Jiangyou regions near the northeastern segment of Longmenshan fault belt in 2009. These measurements revealed the near-surface stress field in the fault region one year after the Wenchuan MS 8.0 Earthquake. However, the lack of the stress measurements before the earthquake in the same region makes it difficult to understand variations of the in situ stress field（near-surface） by comparative analysis. In order to determine the unknown horizontal principal stresses before the earthquake in Beichuan and Jiangyou regions, the following research method was tentatively applied. Firstly, we calculate the static co-seismic stress field by linear elastic finite element numerical simulation with ANSYS, based on the co-seismic static displacement generated by the Wenchuan MS 8.0 Earthquake along the central Longmenshan fault plane in Beichuan and Jiangyou. Secondly, combining hydraulic fracturing measurements（after the earthquake） with the co-seismic stress（simulation）, the magnitudes and orientations of horizontal principal stresses before the earthquake were calculated. Finally, the variation of the in situ stress（near-surface） in Beichuan and Jinagyou, both before and after the Wenchuan MS 8.0 Earthquake, were obtained by comparative analysis. To do this the magnitude of SHmax was decreased on average by 13.01 and 6.54 MPa after the earthquake in ZK02 and ZK03, respectively and the magnitude of SHmin was decreased by 2.54 and 5.29 MPa in ZK02 and ZK03, respectively. Following the earthquake, the average direction of SHmax rotated anticlockwise by 42.5°.