Forecasting Tesla’s Stock Price Using the ARIMA Model

The stock market is an important economic information center.The economic benefits generated by stock price prediction have attracted much attention.Although the stock market cannot be predicted accurately,the stock market’s prediction of the trend of stock prices helps in grasping the operation law of the stock market and the influence mechanism on the economy.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model is one of the most widely accepted and used time series forecasting models.Therefore,this paper first compares the return on investment(ROI)of Apple and Tesla,revealing that the ROI of Tesla is much greater than that of Apple,and subsequently focuses on ARIMA model’s prediction on the available time series data,thus concluding that the ARIMA model is better than the Naïve method in predicting the change in Tesla’s stock price trend.

Structural architecture of Neoproterozoic rifting depression groups in the Tarim Basin and their formation dynamics

The Tarim Basin is the largest, oil-bearing, superimposed basin in the northwest of China. The evolution and tectonic properties of the initial Tarim Basin have been hotly disputed and remain enigmatic. The Neoproterozoic basin is covered by a vast desert and a huge-thickness of sedimentary strata, has experienced multiple tectonic movements, had a low signal to noise ratios(SNRs) of deep seismic reflection data, all of which have posed critical obstacles to research. We analysed four field outcrops, 18 wells distributed throughout the basin, 27 reprocessed seismic reflection profiles with higher SNRs across the basin and many ancillary local 2D and 3D profiles and aeromagnetic data. We found about 20 normal fault-controlled rifting depressions of the Cryogenian and Ediacaran scattered throughout the basin, which developed on the Precambrian metamorphic and crystalline basement. The structural framework is clearly different from that of the overlying Phanerozoic. The rifting depressions consist of mainly half grabens, symmetrical troughs and horst-grabens. From the northeast to southwest of the basin,they are divided into three rifting depression groups with the WNW, ENE, and NW-trends that are mainly controlled by normal faults. The maximum thicknesses of the strata are up to 4100 m. From the Cryogenian to Ediacaran, most of the main inherited faults to active and eventually ceased at the end of the Ediacaran or Early Cambrian, while subsidence centres appeared and migrated eastward along the faults. They revealed that the different parts of the Tarim continental block were in NNE-SSWoriented and NNW-SSE-oriented extensional paleo-stress fields(relative to the present) during the Neoproterozoic, and were accompanied by clockwise shearing. According to the analysis of the activities of syn-sedimentary faults, filling sediments,magmatic events, and coordination with aeromagnetic anomalies, the tectonic properties of the fault depressions are different and are primarily continental rifts or intra-continental fault-controlled basins. The rifting phases mainly occurred from 0.8–0.61 Ga.The formation of the rifting depression was associated with the initial opening of the South Altun-West Kunlun Ocean and the South Tianshan Ocean, which were located at the northern and southern margins of the Tarim Block, respectively, in response to the break-up of the Supercontinent Rodinia and the initial opening of the Proto-Tethys Ocean.

Sedimentary Characteristics and Formation Mechanisms of Lacustrine Beach-Bars in the Fourth Member of the Shahejie Formation in the Shubei Area, Western Depression of the Liaohe Oilfield, China

Beach-bars are well developed in the fourth member of the Shahejie Formation in the Shubei area, western depression of the Liaohe oilfield. The fourth member is composed of two three-order sequences, including a lower Sequence 1（SQ1） and an upper Sequence 2（SQ2）. SQ2, which is the focus of this study, comprises a lowstand systems tract（LST） and a transgressive system tract（TST）. Three types of beach-bars have been recognized： shallow-littoral lacustrine sandy beach-bars, semi-deep lacustrine storm-related sandy beach-bars and shallow-littoral lacustrine carbonate beach-bars. Paleo-environments during the deposition of SQ2, including the paleo-geomorphology, paleo-water depth and paleo-source have been reconstructed to determine the formation mechanisms of the different types of beach-bars. The shallow-littoral lacustrine sandy beach-bars formed mainly by waves and currents and were mostly deposited in the LST, where water depths ranged from 3 to 9 m and the terrestrial clast supply is sufficient. The storm-related sandy beach-bars developed in the TST in the southern part of the study area near previously massively deposited sand bodies where there was sufficient water depth to preserve them. The carbonate beach-bars formed primarily in the TST in the Shubei low buried hill belt where there was a lack of terrestrial clast supply and complex, uneven geomorphology that easily gave rise to a lagoonal environment.

Reservoir Characteristics and Controlling Factors of Silurian Lower Kepingtage Formation in Tahe Area, Tarim Basin, NW China

With the breakthrough of exploration in Well TP16-1, the lower Kepingtage Formation becomes a key target for petroleum exploration of deep clastic reservoir in Tahe area. In this paper we focused on the research of the reservoir characteristics and its controlling factors in two sub-member formations（S1k11 and S1k13）. Based on X-ray diffraction, conventional physical properties data（porosity and permeability） and reservoir storage space data（casting thin section and scanning electron microscope）, we determined that the S1k1 Formation belongs to extra-low porosity and permeability reservoir, although the upper S1k13 Formation shows relative better physical characteristic than the lower S1k11 Formation. The development of storage space in the study area is controlled by sedimentary microfacies, diagenesis process. Reservoirs in S1k1 Formation are mainly located in channel（S1k11 sandstones） and sand flat（S1k13 sandstones）. The sand flat sediments with a more coarse grain size compared with the channel. In diagenesis, compaction is the major controlling factor for reducing the porosity, followed by cementation. Dissolution of diagenesis is the major controlling factor in enhancing the reservoir porosities. Compared with channel（S1k11） sandstones, sand flat sandstones（S1k13） have better reservoir quality for its weaker compaction, cementation and stronger dissolution. On the basis of sedimentary characteristics（grain size and subfacies）, physical property（porosity and permeability） and reservoir storage space, we divide the S1k1 reservoir into three categories（I, II and III）. Type I reservoir is high quality reservoir. It is mainly distributed in the south area of S1k11 and S1k13 reservoir. Type II is moderate reservoir. It is located in the middle of S1k11 reservoir and in the north of S1k13 reservoir. Type III is the poor reservoir. It is only located in the north of S1k11 reservoir.

Controlling Factors and Accumulation Model of Hydrocarbon Reservoirs in the Upper Cretaceous Yogou Formation, Koulele Area, Termit Basin, Niger

Based on the sedimentary and tectonic background of the Termit Basin, this paper focuses on the Upper Cretaceous Yogou Formation and uses organic geochemistry, logging, oil testing and seismic data to analyze the primary control factors of the hydrocarbon accumulation and establish corresponding model in order to predict favorable exploration target zones of hydrocarbon reservoirs. This study demonstrates that the Upper Cretaceous Yogou Formation is a self-generation and self-accumulation type reservoir. The Yogou Formation hydrocarbon reservoirs in the Koulele area are controlled by four factors：（1） the source rock is controlled by a wide range of YS1-YS2 marine shale,（2） the sandstone reservoir is controlled by the YS3 underwater distributary channel and storm dunes,（3） migration of hydrocarbons is controlled by faults and the regional monocline structure, and（4） the accumulation of hydrocarbons is controlled by lateral seal. The structures in the western Koulele area are primarily reverse fault-blocks with large throws, and the structures in the east are dominantly fault-blocks with small throws（co-rotating and reverse） and a fault-nose. In the western Koulele area, where the facies are dominated by storm dunes on a larger scale, it is easier to form lithologic reservoirs of sandstone lens. In the eastern Koulele area, high-quality channel sandstone reservoirs, fault-blocks with small throws, and the monocline structure benefit for the formation of updip pinch out lithologic traps, fault lithologic reservoirs and fault-nose structural reservoirs. Future exploration targets should be focused in the western storm dunes zone and eastern distributary channel sand zone with small fault-blocks.