Response of Xiao Dongkemadi Glacier in the central Tibetan Plateau to the current climate change and future scenarios by 2050

The Tibetan Plateau （TP） holds ten thousands of alpine glaciers in mid-latitude. They have shrunk with an accelerating retreat rate recently. We applied a distributed temperature-index massbalance model developed by Regine Hock, and coupled with a volume-area scaling method to Xiao Dongkemadi Glacier （XDG） in the central TP, to assess its response to climate change. The result shows the simulated mass balance is in a good agreement with observations （R2=0.75, p〈0.001） during the period of 1989-2012. The simulated mean annual mass balance （-213 mm w.e.） is close to the observation （-233 mm w.e.）, indicating the model can be used to estimate the glacier variation in the future. Then the model was forced under the climate scenarios by the output of RegCM4 RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 from 2013 to 2050. The simulated terminus elevation of the glacier will rise from 5454 m a.s.1, in 2o13 to 5533 m a.s.1. （RCP4.5） and 5543 m a.s.1. （RCP8.5） in 2050. XDG will lose its volume with an increasing rate of 600-700 m3 a-1 during the period of 1989-2o5o, indicating the melting water will enhance the river runoff. But for the long term, the contribution to the river runoff will decrease for the shrinkage of glacier scale.

Luminescence chronology and age model application for the upper part of the Chumbur-Kosa loess sequence in the Sea of Azov, Russia

A reliable chronology is essentially critical for correlating loess records with other paleoenvironmental time series, as well as for continuing improvements in the reconstruction of paleoenvironment and paleoclimate changes. It is exactly that the scarcity of chronologies across the Sea of Azov has limited the interpretation of climatic and environmental information in the East European Plain. In view of this, this paper conducted an exploratory study to investigate whether the optically stimulated luminescence(OSL) dating of medium-grained quartz could be used to obtain a set of chronologies and the age models could be used to establish an independent time scale since the Late Pleistocene for the Sea of Azov loess. The results showed that an internally consistent set of optical ages for the Azov loess deposited up to ~76 ka. In addition, the ages developed based on magnetic susceptibility and grain size ages models showed good comparability with independent OSL ages at an acceptable range, suggesting that it might be practicable to establish an independent time scale using age models at the Sea of Azov loess, at least for the uppermost part of the Chumbur-Kosa section. Comparison with the ages based on two age models,the grain size ages using fine-grain fractions may provide a more reliable chronological sequence at the Azov loess since the Late Pleistocene. With the help of absolute ages and climate proxies(magnetic susceptibility and grain size), paleoclimatic change in the Sea of Azov have been traced for the Late Pleistocene.

Paleoclimatic record from Chumbur-Kosa section in Sea of Azov region since Marine Isotope Stage 11

Abstract： Loess-paleosol sequences preserve records of climatic change during the Quaternary, which is important for paleoclimate study. In this study, a loess-palaeosol sequence from the Chumbur- Kosa （CK） site in the Sea of Azov region was investigated to reconstruct climatic variability during the Marine Isotope Stage （MIS）11- MIS 1, using proxies of grain size （GS）, magnetic susceptibility （xlf and Xfd（%））, carbonate content （CaCO3%） and soil color The results enabled formulation of a detailed description of the climatic characteristics related to each individual layer. The sequence indicates that the paleoclimate shifted progressively towards increasingly cooler, somewhat drier conditions. The CK section may thus be ideal for reconstructing climatie eondifions during the Middle and Late Pleistocene in the Sea of Azov region. However, the ）Of value of paleosol $2 in the CK profile indicates different characteristics from the other paleosol layers, dilution of carbonate resulting from carbonate leaching in L2 may be the main reason for the decrease in magnetic susceptibility. Furthermore, through simple analysis part of the environmental evolution process in the Sea of Azov region and Serbia during Middle and Late Pleistocene cycles. The climate cycle expressed by Xfd（%） and Xlf variations show similar patterns, with rapidly alternating cold and warm intervals. Nevertheless, although the two areas had different climatic regimes, geographical settings, and loess source areas, both exhibited similar climate change trends since the MIS 11.

塔里木盆地南缘风速变化特征分析

采用趋势分析、相关分析、Morlet小波函数和M-K突变检验等方法,分析位于塔里木盆地南缘的8个气象站点平均风速的变化趋势、变化周期、突变情况和变化机制.研究结果表明:1961-2013年间塔里木盆地南缘各气象站点的平均风速为1.61～2.50m·s^(-1),风速的年际差异较小;各站点的风速递减速率为0.01～0.29m·s^(-1)·(10a)^(-1),存在明显差异,平均速率和西北地区整体变化速率一致,但仍具有区域特殊性,不同于西北地区整体变化过程和北疆的变化过程;各研究点风速变化波动周期在4a、15～18a较为一致,但在其他研究中发现的8～10a的波动周期在本研究区不同研究点之间差异较大;喀什、民丰平均风速突变时间为1974年,皮山、和田为1973年,且末、于田分别为1984年和1981年,莎车、若羌没有突变点,说明突变情况差异较大.

Effect of lake surface temperature on the summer precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau

There are numerous lakes on the Tibetan Plateau(TP),but the role of lake temperature in precipitation over the TP remains unclear.Here the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model was used to detect the impact of lakes on summer rainfall.Three test cases were used to evaluate the effect of lakes surface temperature(LSTs) on precipitation variability.The three cases used different methods to determine initial LSTs,including using sea surface temperature data(SST),the WRF inland water module(avg_tsfc),and a lake model.Results show that when precipitation was stimulated over the TP,LSTs cannot be initialized using SST,which led to large discrepancies of precipitation.Compared with the simulations,the simulated precipitation were improved obviously with LSTs using avg_tsfc,indicating that LSTs have an considerable influence on determining precipitation over the TP.Due to a lack of observational data,the lake scheme does not improve on rainfall simulation,but does effectively simulate precipitation pattern over lakes,such as rainfall over the lakes was dominated by convection during the nighttime.Though the simulated precipitation using SST to initialize LSTs caused largediscrepancies,it suggested that precipitation increase especially convective precipitation with increase in LSTs,which confirmed that the moisture from lakes cannot be neglected over the TP.Generally,it was necessary to monitor the LSTs for accurate weather and climate prediction over the TP.