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基于SVD与机器学习的华南降水预报订正方法 被引量:15
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作者 谢舜 孙效功 +3 位作者 张苏平 熊朝晖 魏晓敏 崔丛欣 《应用气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2022年第3期293-304,共12页
降水是在多种天气系统和复杂物理过程共同影响下形成的,因此降水预报难度较大。由于数值预报模式的局限性,使得模式预报产品存在一定误差。为探讨更加有效的模式预报产品误差订正方法,基于奇异值分解(SVD)与机器学习(多元线性回归、套... 降水是在多种天气系统和复杂物理过程共同影响下形成的,因此降水预报难度较大。由于数值预报模式的局限性,使得模式预报产品存在一定误差。为探讨更加有效的模式预报产品误差订正方法,基于奇异值分解(SVD)与机器学习(多元线性回归、套索回归、岭回归)构建订正模型,对2007—2019年4月1日—6月30日华南前汛期欧洲中期天气预报中心(EC)模式降水预报产品进行误差订正试验。结果表明:基于SVD与机器学习相结合的订正模型能有效降低EC模式降水预报产品在华南的预报误差,均方根误差最大优化率达4.2%,累计超过69%的站点得到不同程度的优化;SVD与机器学习相结合的订正模型能很好地处理因子间共线性问题,具有更好的鲁棒性;而对多个订正模型加权集成,均方根误差优化率达5.7%,累计超过77%的站点得到优化,显然加权集成方法订正效果不仅优于EC模式预报产品,也优于参与集成的任一订正模型。 展开更多
关键词 奇异值分解 机器学习 加权集成 降水 预报订正
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Analysis of the Structure and Propagation of a Simulated Squall Line on 14 June 2009 被引量:8
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作者 LIU Lu RAN Lingkun sun xiaogong 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2015年第8期1049-1062,共14页
A squall line on 14 June 2009 in the provinces of Jiangsu and Anhui was well simulated using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model. Based on high resolution spatial and temporal data, a detailed analy... A squall line on 14 June 2009 in the provinces of Jiangsu and Anhui was well simulated using the Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) model. Based on high resolution spatial and temporal data, a detailed analysis of the structural features and propagation mechanisms of the squall line was conducted. The dynamic and thermodynamic structural charac- teristics and their causes were analyzed in detail. Unbalanced flows were found to play a key role in initiating gravity waves during the squall line's development. The spread and development of the gravity waves were sustained by convection in the wave-CISK process. The squall line's propagation and development mainly relied on the combined effect of gravity waves at the midlevel and cold outflow along the gust front. New cells were continuously forced by the cold pool outflow and were enhanced and lifted by the intense upward motion. At a particular phase, the new cells merged with the updraft of the gravity waves, leading to an intense updraft that strengthened the squall line. 展开更多
关键词 squall line structural feature gravity wave cold pool outflow
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The grain-size distribution of the suspended particulate matter in the Huanghe Estuary and its adjacent sea area in winter 被引量:1
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作者 ZENG Ming FAN Dejiang +2 位作者 sun xiaogong WANG Shuai YANG Zuosheng 《Acta Oceanologica Sinica》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2011年第2期75-83,共9页
The grain-size of suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the Huanghe Estuary and its adjacent sea area was investigated with an in situ laser particle size analyzer (LISST-100) in November 2006.The spatial distribu... The grain-size of suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the Huanghe Estuary and its adjacent sea area was investigated with an in situ laser particle size analyzer (LISST-100) in November 2006.The spatial distribution of the grain-size parameters was very complicated.The results show that (1) the mean particle size of SPM ranged from 3.00Φ to 6.41Φ,with an average value of 4.66Φ;(2) the frequency distribution patterns of the SPM grain-size showed three different types,which were mono-mode,dual-mode and tri-mode,respectively;(3) C-M chart suggested that the transportation-processes of the SPM not only included suspended mode,but also the bed load transportation mode.The bed load transportation mode mainly occurred at the bottom layer.The characteristics and space distribution of SPM grain-size might be mainly controlled by sediment discharge of the Huanghe River,hydrodynamics condition,surface sediment types,and biological process within the study area. 展开更多
关键词 the Huanghe Estuary grain-size of suspended particulate matter spatial distribution influence factor
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Effects of the Upstream Temperature Anomaly on Freezing Rain and Snowstorms over Southern China in Early 2008 被引量:2
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作者 ZUO Qunjie GAO Shouting sun xiaogong 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2016年第5期694-705,共12页
By using ERA-Interim data, the temperature anomaly of the freezing rain and snowstorm event that occurred from Ii to 22 January 2008 in southern China was analyzed. During this period, diabatic heating and temperature... By using ERA-Interim data, the temperature anomaly of the freezing rain and snowstorm event that occurred from Ii to 22 January 2008 in southern China was analyzed. During this period, diabatic heating and temperature advection caused the temperature to increase anomalously over the Tibetan Plateau. The anomalously high temperature moving from the Tibetan Plateau to southern Chin.a played several roles. First, the upper-level subtropical jet over China was split into two parts in the north-south direction, which affected the development of freezing rain in southern China; second, a ridge formed because of the warmer air moving to China, which hindered the transport of cold air from its upstream blocking high, forced the cold air to gather behind the ridge, and facilitated the severe cold air outbreak in the later period of the event; third, an inversion layer formed because of the lower-level cold air and upper-level warmer air over southern China, which was conducive to the development of the event over southern China; and finally, because of the temperature anomaly, opposite wind directions appeared at the lower levels (below 700 hPa), which helped transport of warm-moist and cold-dry air to the event area. 展开更多
关键词 freezing rain upper- and lower-level jets diabatic heating Tibetan Plateau temperature ano- maly
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