Relationship between the Guinea Current and the Coastal Upwelling in Northern of Gulf of Guinea

The variability of ocean circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic, especially in the Gulf of Guinea (GG), defines this region as exceptionally rich from an oceanographic perspective. The Guinea Current (GC), as the major surface current, plays a significant role in marine productivity and coastal upwelling in the GG. This coastal upwelling is known to influence the climate of the surrounding region, primary productivity and local fisheries. Studies on GC variability and its impact on this coastal upwelling have highlighted that the upwelling downstream of Cape Palmas is influenced by GC detachment, topographic variations and advective processes leading to significant vertical mixing. This study aims to analyze the interannual variability of the GC and its impact on coastal upwelling using the Coastal and Regional Ocean COmmunity model (CROCO). The model’s evaluation is conducted using observational data, specifically Geostrophic and EKman Current Observatory (GEKCO) and Ocean Surface Current Analysis (OSCAR) for currents, and Air-sea Fluxes for the global Tropic ocean-description (TROPFLUX) and Optimum Interpolation-Sea Surface Temperature (OI-SST) for temperature. Thus, the model evaluation indicates that it accurately replicates ocean circulation and SST patterns in the tropical Atlantic and the GG. The joint analysis of upwelling indices (surface and intensity) and the position of the GC core allowed us to conclude that the displacement of the GC core does indeed influence the upwelling indices in the northern part of GG. However, other oceanic and atmospheric mechanisms such as vertical diffusion and horizontal advection as proposed by previous studies may also affect the year-by-year variability of coastal upwelling in the northern GG.

Effects of Natural Processes on Sea Level Change along the West African Coastline

Coastal hazards induced by meteo-marine forcing are exacerbated by sea level change along the West African coastline. Changes in sea level are induced by ocean processes such as ocean heat content and river discharge. However, although these processes control largely change in sea level, they remain poorly understood. This study analyzes changes in ocean heat content, river discharge, and sea level and establishes an interconnection between these parameters using several statistical methods over the 1993-2021 period. Results showed a significant correlation between sea level and ocean heat content at 2000 m depth. The yearly minimum value appears in July from Cote d’Ivoire to Benin, whilst this value appears in June in Nigeria. The temporal variability of ocean heat content, river discharge and sea level along the West African coastline exhibits three or four periods interrupted by some breakpoints with unequal duration. The results indicate that the 1993-2000 period was dominated by an increasing ocean heat content along the coastline, while the period after the 2000s exhibits mostly a decreasing trend. Positive and negative trends characterized river discharge and sea level along this coastline. The result of multiple linear regression between sea level, river discharge and ocean heat content is a good approximation of sea level trend along the West African coastline. The results of this study could be used to predict future sea level trends along the coast.

Influence of Continental Atmospheric Forcing on the Decadal Variability of the West African Monsoon

The West African Monsoon (WAM) is characterized by strong decadal and multi-decadal variability and the impacts can be catastrophic for the local populations. One of the factors put forward to explain this variability involves the role of atmospheric dynamics, linked in particular to the Saharan Heat Low (SHL). This article addresses this question by comparing the sets of preindustrial control and historical simulation data from climate models carried out in the framework of the CMIP5 project and observations data over the 20th century. Through multivariate statistical analyses, it was established that decadal modes of ocean variability and decadal variability of Saharan atmospheric dynamics significantly influence decadal variability of monsoon precipitation. These results also suggest the existence of external anthropogenic forcing, which is superimposed on the decadal natural variability inducing an intensification of the signal in the historical simulations compared to preindustrial control simulations. We have also shown that decadal rainfall variability in the Sahel, once the influence of oceanic modes has been eliminated, appears to be driven mainly by the activity of the Arabian Heat Low (AHL) in the central Sahel, and by the structure of the meridional temperature gradient over the inter-tropical Atlantic in the western Sahel.

Diagnosis of the Causes of the Rain Flooding in June in the West Africa Coastal Area

Rain flooding during June on the West Africa coastal area is analyzed by using the 95th and 75th percentiles, which represent extreme and intense rainfall events respectively. Thus, the contribution of these events that reaches around 50% shows their impact on the rainfall in June. Atmospheric and oceanic factors influence the rain flooding. Indeed, the extreme events are associated with easterly waves propagating from 20°E, while those of intense events are initiated around 5°E. The impact of oceanic conditions exhibits the warming of the equatorial rail and the Atlantic cold tongue, the warming of the whole ocean basin and a north-south dipole of SST anomalies. The West African monsoon that reaches Abidjan corresponds to a low-level atmospheric flow, whose upward motion extends in latitude from the ocean to the continent. An increase of disturbance contributes to enhancing these events. This is confirmed by the inflow on to the continent of oceanic moisture coming from the ventilation by evaporation of warm water. In addition, the coupled ocean-atmosphere simulations are one of the best candidates that could help to better explain these dramatic events. This study is useful because of showing solutions that could help in adoption of policies for the risks management related to these events.