Whole lesion histogram analysis of apparent diffusion coefficient predicts therapy response in locally advanced rectal cancer

BACKGROUND Whole-tumor apparent diffusion coefficient(ADC)histogram analysis is relevant to predicting the neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy(nCRT)response in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer(LARC).AIM To evaluate the performance of ADC histogram-derived parameters for predicting the outcomes of patients with LARC.METHODS This is a single-center,retrospective study,which included 48 patients with LARC.All patients underwent a pre-treatment magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)scan for primary tumor staging and a second restaging MRI for response evaluation.The sample was distributed as follows:18 responder patients(R)and 30 non-responders(non-R).Eight parameters derived from the whole-lesion histogram analysis(ADCmean,skewness,kurtosis,and ADC10^(th),25^(th),50^(th),75^(th),90^(th) percentiles),as well as the ADCmean from the hot spot region of interest(ROI),were calculated for each patient before and after treatment.Then all data were compared between R and non-R using the Mann-Whitney U test.Two measures of diagnostic accuracy were applied:the receiver operating characteristic curve and the diagnostic odds ratio(DOR).We also reported intra-and interobserver variability by calculating the intraclass correlation coefficient(ICC).RESULTS Post-nCRT kurtosis,as well as post-nCRT skewness,were significantly lower in R than in non-R(both P<0.001,respectively).We also found that,after treatment,R had a larger loss of both kurtosis and skewness than non-R(Δ%kurtosis and Δ skewness,P<0.001).Other parameters that demonstrated changes between groups were post-nCRT ADC10^(th),Δ%ADC10^(th),Δ%ADCmean,and ROIΔ%ADCmean.However,the best diagnostic performance was achieved byΔ%kurtosis at a threshold of 11.85%(Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve[AUC]=0.991,DOR=376),followed by post-nCRT kurtosis=0.78×10^(-3)mm^(2)/s(AUC=0.985,DOR=375.3),Δskewness=0.16(AUC=0.885,DOR=192.2)and post-nCRT skewness=1.59×10^(-3)mm^(2)/s(AUC=0.815,DOR=168.6).Finally,intraclass correlation coefficient analysis showed excellent intraobserver and interobserver agreement,ensuring the implementation of histogram analysis into routine clinical practice.CONCLUSION Whole-tumor ADC histogram parameters,particularly kurtosis and skewness,are relevant biomarkers for predicting the nCRT response in LARC.Both parameters appear to be more reliable than ADCmean from one-slice ROI.