The authors present a methodology and an example of preparing an order of merit list to rank terrorist based upon decision maker weights. This research used an old terrorist data set as our base data to keep the infor...The authors present a methodology and an example of preparing an order of merit list to rank terrorist based upon decision maker weights. This research used an old terrorist data set as our base data to keep the information unclassified. This data is used to demonstrate this methodology. The authors perform numerical iterative criteria weight sensitivity analysis to show the effects on the model’s outputs in changes in the weights. Through their analysis the most critical criterion is identified.展开更多
In game theory, in order to properly use mixed strategies, equalizing strategies or the Nash arbitration method, we require cardinal payoffs. We present an alternative method to the possible tedious lottery method of ...In game theory, in order to properly use mixed strategies, equalizing strategies or the Nash arbitration method, we require cardinal payoffs. We present an alternative method to the possible tedious lottery method of von Neumann and Morgenstern to change ordinal values into cardinal values using the analytical hierarchy process. We suggest using Saaty’s pairwise comparison with combined strategies as criteria for players involved in a repetitive game. We present and illustrate a methodology for moving from ordinal payoffs to cardinal payoffs. We summarize the impact on how the solutions are achieved.展开更多
A Dark Network is a network that cannot be accessed through tradition means. Once uncovered, to any degree, dark network analysis can be accomplished using the SNA software. The output of SNA software includes many me...A Dark Network is a network that cannot be accessed through tradition means. Once uncovered, to any degree, dark network analysis can be accomplished using the SNA software. The output of SNA software includes many measures and metrics. For each of these measures and metric, the output in ORA additionally provides the ability to obtain a rank ordering of the nodes in terms of these measures. We might use this information in decision making concerning best methods to disrupt or deceive a given dark network. In the Noordin Dark network, different nodes were identified as key nodes based upon the metric used. Our goal in this paper is to use methodologies to identify the key players or nodes in a Dark Network in a similar manner as we previously proposed in social networks. We apply two multi-attribute decision making methods, a hybrid AHP & TOPSIS and an average weighted ranks scheme, to analyze these outputs to find the most influential nodes as a function of the decision makers’ inputs. We compare these methods by illustration using the Noordin Dark Network with seventy-nine nodes. We discuss sensitivity analysis that is applied to the criteria weights in order to measure the change in the ranking of the nodes.展开更多
In 2007-2008, the writer’s guild of America went on strike in order to receive a better outcome from management. We built a game to analyze the situation. The Nash equilibrium of that game says that the writers shoul...In 2007-2008, the writer’s guild of America went on strike in order to receive a better outcome from management. We built a game to analyze the situation. The Nash equilibrium of that game says that the writers should not strike and that management should maintain the status quo. The equilibrium is quite unattractive to the writers leading to a strike and forcing management to negotiate. We illustrate the results in order to gain insights into the process. We demonstrate finding the Nash equilibrium with both ordinal and then cardinal values. We demonstrate a method to find the cardinal values using the analytical hierarchy processes to measure the utility for the strategies. We show finding the prudential strategies and security levels as well as finding threat levels in this example. We show using the threat level in Nash arbitration leads to a better solution for the writers than using the security levels.展开更多
文摘The authors present a methodology and an example of preparing an order of merit list to rank terrorist based upon decision maker weights. This research used an old terrorist data set as our base data to keep the information unclassified. This data is used to demonstrate this methodology. The authors perform numerical iterative criteria weight sensitivity analysis to show the effects on the model’s outputs in changes in the weights. Through their analysis the most critical criterion is identified.
文摘In game theory, in order to properly use mixed strategies, equalizing strategies or the Nash arbitration method, we require cardinal payoffs. We present an alternative method to the possible tedious lottery method of von Neumann and Morgenstern to change ordinal values into cardinal values using the analytical hierarchy process. We suggest using Saaty’s pairwise comparison with combined strategies as criteria for players involved in a repetitive game. We present and illustrate a methodology for moving from ordinal payoffs to cardinal payoffs. We summarize the impact on how the solutions are achieved.
文摘A Dark Network is a network that cannot be accessed through tradition means. Once uncovered, to any degree, dark network analysis can be accomplished using the SNA software. The output of SNA software includes many measures and metrics. For each of these measures and metric, the output in ORA additionally provides the ability to obtain a rank ordering of the nodes in terms of these measures. We might use this information in decision making concerning best methods to disrupt or deceive a given dark network. In the Noordin Dark network, different nodes were identified as key nodes based upon the metric used. Our goal in this paper is to use methodologies to identify the key players or nodes in a Dark Network in a similar manner as we previously proposed in social networks. We apply two multi-attribute decision making methods, a hybrid AHP & TOPSIS and an average weighted ranks scheme, to analyze these outputs to find the most influential nodes as a function of the decision makers’ inputs. We compare these methods by illustration using the Noordin Dark Network with seventy-nine nodes. We discuss sensitivity analysis that is applied to the criteria weights in order to measure the change in the ranking of the nodes.
文摘In 2007-2008, the writer’s guild of America went on strike in order to receive a better outcome from management. We built a game to analyze the situation. The Nash equilibrium of that game says that the writers should not strike and that management should maintain the status quo. The equilibrium is quite unattractive to the writers leading to a strike and forcing management to negotiate. We illustrate the results in order to gain insights into the process. We demonstrate finding the Nash equilibrium with both ordinal and then cardinal values. We demonstrate a method to find the cardinal values using the analytical hierarchy processes to measure the utility for the strategies. We show finding the prudential strategies and security levels as well as finding threat levels in this example. We show using the threat level in Nash arbitration leads to a better solution for the writers than using the security levels.
