Prognostic value and predictive model of tumor markers in stageⅠtoⅢgastric cancer patients

BACKGROUND Preoperative serum tumor markers have been widely used in the diagnosis and treatment of gastric cancer patients.However,few studies have evaluated the prognosis of gastric cancer patients by establishing statistical models with multiple serum tumor indicators.AIM To explore the prognostic value and predictive model of tumor markers in stage I and III gastric cancer patients.METHODS From October 2018 to April 2020,a total of 1236 patients with stage I to III gastric cancer after surgery were included in our study.The relationship between serum tumor markers and clinical and pathological data were analyzed.We established a statistical model to predict the prognosis of gastric cancer based on the results of COX regression analysis.Overall survival(OS)was also compared across different stages of gastric cancer.RESULTS The deadline for follow-up was May 31,2023.A total of 1236 patients were included in our study.Univariate analysis found that age,clinical stage,T and N stage,tumor location,differentiation,Borrmann type,size,and four serum tumor markers were prognostic factors of OS(P<0.05).It was shown that clinical stage,tumor size,alpha foetoprotein,carcinoembryonic antigen,CA125 and CA19-9(P<0.05)were independent prognostic factors for OS.According to the scoring results obtained from the statistical model,we found that patients with high scores had poorer survival time(P<0.05).Furthermore,in stage I patients,the 3-year OS for scores 0-3 ranged from 96.85%,95%,85%,and 80%.In stage II patients,the 3-year OS for scores 0-4 were 88.6%,76.5%,90.5%,65.5%and 60%.For stage III patients,3-year OS for scores 0-6 were 70.9%,68.3%,64.1%,50.9%,38.4%,18.5%and 5.2%.We also analyzed the mean survival of patients with different scores.For stage I patients,the mean OS was 55.980 months.In stage II,the mean OS was 51.550 months.The mean OS for stage III was 39.422 months.CONCLUSION Our statistical model can effectively predict the prognosis of gastric cancer patients.

Nomogram established using risk factors of early gastric cancer for predicting the lymph node metastasis

BACKGROUND For the prognosis of patients with early gastric cancer(EGC),lymph node metastasis(LNM)plays a crucial role.A thorough and precise evaluation of the patient for LNM is now required.AIM To determine the factors influencing LNM and to construct a prediction model of LNM for EGC patients.METHODS Clinical information and pathology data of 2217 EGC patients downloaded from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results database were collected and analyzed.Based on a 7:3 ratio,1550 people were categorized into training sets and 667 people were assigned to testing sets,randomly.Based on the factors influencing LNM determined by the training sets,the nomogram was drawn and verified.RESULTS Based on multivariate analysis,age at diagnosis,histology type,grade,T-stage,and size were risk factors of LNM for EGC.Besides,nomogram was drawn to predict the risk of LNM for EGC patients.Among the categorical variables,the effect of grade(well,moderate,and poor)was the most significant prognosis factor.For training sets and testing sets,respectively,area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of nomograms were 0.751[95%confidence interval(CI):0.721-0.782]and 0.786(95%CI:0.742-0.830).In addition,the calibration curves showed that the prediction model of LNM had good consistency.CONCLUSION Age at diagnosis,histology type,grade,T-stage,and tumor size were independent variables for LNM in EGC.Based on the above risk factors,prediction model may offer some guiding implications for the choice of subsequent therapeutic approaches for EGC.