The earth's rotation-dominated seismicity preceding the 2023 M_(W) 7.8 Gaziantep, Türkiye, earthquake

For earthquakes (M≥4.0) occurring along and around the East Anatolian fault zone and the Dead Sea fault zone within ten years immediately before the MW7.8 Gaziantep earthquake,Türkiye,of February 6,2023,we explored the correlation between seismicity and the earth's rotation.We statistically evaluated the correlation using the Schuster's test.The results are quantitatively assessed by a p-value.We found a clear downward trend in the p-values from early 2020 to late 2022 in the studied region.We also obtained a spatial distribution of the p-values showing a low p-value area near the northeastern end of the aftershock zone.Although the stress induced by the rotation of the earth is very weak,it could control the earthquake occurrence when the focal medium is loaded to the critical state to release a large earthquake.The decrease in the b-value in the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) relation is considered in the form of the tectonic stress increase in the crust.We investigated the b-value as a function of time in the study region.We found that the b-value had decreased for about eleven years before the p-value started to decrease,with a relative reduction of 57%.Therefore,the result of the lower p-values obtained in the present study infers that the earthquakes were dominated by the earth's rotation prior to the MW7.8 Türkiye earthquake due to a critical state of the focal region.

A Well Productivity Model for Multi-Layered Marine and Continental Transitional Reservoirs with Complex Fracture Networks

Using the typical characteristics of multi-layered marine and continental transitional gas reservoirs as a basis,a model is developed to predict the related well production rate.This model relies on the fractal theory of tortuous capillary bundles and can take into account multiple gas flow mechanisms at the micrometer and nanometer scales,as well as the flow characteristics in different types of thin layers(tight sandstone gas,shale gas,and coalbed gas).Moreover,a source-sink function concept and a pressure drop superposition principle are utilized to introduce a coupled flow model in the reservoir.A semi-analytical solution for the production rate is obtained using a matrix iteration method.A specific well is selected for fitting dynamic production data,and the calculation results show that the tight sandstone has the highest gas production per unit thickness compared with the other types of reservoirs.Moreover,desorption and diffusion of coalbed gas and shale gas can significantly contribute to gas production,and the daily production of these two gases decreases rapidly with decreasing reservoir pressure.Interestingly,the gas production from fractures exhibits an approximately U-shaped distribution,indicating the need to optimize the spacing between clusters during hydraulic fracturing to reduce the area of overlapping fracture control.The coal matrix water saturation significantly affects the coalbed gas production,with higher water saturation leading to lower production.

Investigation on variations of apparent stress in the region in and around the rupture volume preceding the occurrence of the 2021 Alaska MW8.2 earthquake

On July 29, 2021, a large earthquake of MW8.2 occurred south of the Alaska Peninsula. To investigate the spatial-temporal changes of crustal stress in the earthquake-stricken area before this event, we selected 159 earthquakes of 4.7 ≤ MW ≤ 6.9 that occurred in the epicentral region and its surroundings between January 1980 and June 2021 to study the temporal variation and spatial distribution of their apparent stress. In addition, we analyzed the correlation between seismic activities and Earth’s rotation and explored the seismogenic process of this earthquake. The crustal stress rose from January 2008 to December 2016. This period was followed by a sub-instability stage from January 2017 until the occurrence of the MW8.2 earthquake. The average rate of apparent stress change in the first five years of the stress increase period was roughly 2.3 times that in the last four years. The lateral distribution of the apparent stress shows that the areas with apparent stress greater than 1.0 MPa exhibited an expanding trend during the seismogenic process. The maximum apparent stress was located at the earthquake epicenter during the last four years. The distribution of the apparent stress in the E-W vertical cross section revealed that an apparent stress gap formed around the hypocenter during the first five years of the stress increase period, surrounded by areas of relatively high apparent stress. After the Alaska earthquake, most parts of this gap were filled in by aftershocks. The seismic activities during the sub-instability stage exhibited a significant correlation with Earth’s rotation.

Apparent stress as an indicator of stress meta-instability:The 2021 M_(S)6.4 Yangbi earthquake in Yunnan,China

Investigating spatiotemporal changes in crustal stress associated with major earthquakes has implications for understanding seismogenic processes.However,in individual earthquake cases,the characteristics of the stress after it reaches its maximum value are rarely discussed.In this study,we use the 2021 M_S6.4 Yangbi earthquake in Yunnan,China and events of magnitudes M_L≥3.0 occurred in the surrounding area in the previous 11 years to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of apparent stress.The results indicate that apparent stress began to increase in January 2015 and reached a maximum in January 2020.Apparent stress then remained at a high level until October 2020,after which it declined considerable.We suggest that the stress was in the accumulation stage from January 2015 to January 2020,and entered the meta-instability stage after October 2020.During the meta-instability stage,the zone of decreasing stress expanded continuously and the apparent stress increased around the Yangbi earthquake source region.These features are generally consistent with the results of laboratory rock stress experiments.We propose that apparent stress can be a good indicator for determining whether the stress at a specific location has entered the meta-instability stage and may become the epicenter of an impending strong earthquake.

Joint analysis of b-value and apparent stress before the 2011 M_(W)9.0 Tohoku-Oki, Japan earthquake

Detecting tempo-spatial changes of crust stress associated with major earthquakes has implications for understanding earthquake seismogenic processes.We conducted a joint analysis of b-value and apparent stress in the source region before the March 11,2011 MW9.0 TohokuOki,Japan earthquake.Earthquakes that occurred between January 1,2000 and March 8,2011 were used to estimate bvalues,while source parameters of events with magnitudes of Ms5.0–6.9 between January 1,1997 and March 8,2011 were used to calculate the apparent stresses.Our results show that the average b-value decreased steadily from 1.26 in 2003 to 0.99 before the Tohoku-Oki mainshock.This b-value decrease coincided with an increase in the apparent stress from 0.65 MPa to 1.64 MPa.Our results reveal a clear negative correlation between the decrease in b-value and increase in apparent stress,which lasted for approximately eight years prior to the 2011 mainshock.Additionally,spatial pattern results of the relative change in b-value show that the area associated with drastic b-value decreases(25%or greater)was concentrated near the 2011 mainshock epicenter.The joint analysis of b-value and apparent stress provides a promising method for detecting anomalies that could serve as potential indicators of large earthquakes.

唐山Ms7.8级地震前中小地震与地球自转的关系

临近强震发生前,震源区变得极不稳定,在震中附近地区的中小地震活动或许会对微小的应力变化敏感.为了考察1976年7月28日河北唐山Ms7.8级地震发生前,震中附近地区是否存在与地球自转速率变化显著相关的地震活动,利用舒斯特(Schuster)统计检验方法,根据1970年1月~1976年6月期间发生的ML≥2.0级地震,研究了地球自转与唐山Ms7.8级地震前发生在其破裂区及其附近地区中小地震之间的相关性.检验结果用P值来评估,P值越低表示相关性越显著.就不同震级范围内的地震分析了P值随时间的变化,发现唐山Ms7.8级地震前ML≥2.5级地震存在低于1%的P值,80%的地震发生时地球自转速率季节性变化处于加速状态.进一步分析了较大空间范围(33°~44°N,113°~122°E)内,在研究区内P值处于最低值期间的空间分布,发现低于2%的P值集中分布在唐山Ms7.8级地震破裂区的东北端部.另外,唐山Ms7.8级地震发生时,地球自转速率刚经历了1次季节性变化的加速过程,处于极大值附近.因此,地球自转加速对唐山Ms7.8级地震的发生可能起到了促进作用.