2016年江淮地区梅汛期首场持续性暴雨的持续原因初探

利用NCEP/NCAR的再分析资料和逐6 h降水实况观测资料,对2016年6月30日—7月6日江淮地区首场持续性暴雨的持续原因进行了初步分析。结果表明,此次持续性暴雨的主雨带位于西太平洋副热带高压(简称西太副高,下同)的西北侧、中低层江淮切变线的南侧,高空急流入口区的右侧,低空急流轴的左前侧;高空强辐散与低空强辐合长时间维持为暴雨的持续提供了有利的动力条件,西风槽前和西太副高外围两个水汽通道为此次暴雨过程提供了充分的水汽,其周期性辐合为暴雨的持续提供了有利的水汽条件;江淮流域上空大气上干冷、下暖湿状态的重复形成,为暴雨的持续提供了足够的能量;江淮切变线附近中尺度低涡的新生、发展和维持为暴雨的持续提供了持续的辐合抬升条件;锋生的周期性增强对降水强度的预报具有一定指示意义。

高层动力强迫对回流型华南暖区暴雨影响的个例研究

应用NCEP再分析资料,分析了2014年5月8—9日发生在华南的一次暖区暴雨过程,研究高层动力强迫对此次华南暖区暴雨的影响。此次暴雨过程发生在暖湿的西南气流中,无明显天气尺度锋面系统影响,属于华南暖区暴雨过程。根据中尺度对流系统(MCS)的生消发展特征,可以将其分为5月8日与9日两个阶段,第一阶段具有显著的回流型暖区暴雨的特征,主要研究该阶段。研究发现,高PV扰动沿对流层高层南亚高压东北侧的西北气流下滑东移,导致IPV正异常,其东侧的辐散气流显著发展,在高层辐散气流的抽吸作用下,上升运动首先从中上层发展起来。在过程发展前期,IPV正异常主要是由平流作用引起,且在其东侧诱发出南风异常,进而导致辐散气流发展。当降水发生后,潜热加热反馈作用使高层辐散气流进一步加强,此时,辐散增强是对流发展的结果。此外,低层浅薄偏东风是本次暖区暴雨发生的低层背景场,其与西南风气流汇合,提供有利的低层辐合条件。

基于数值方法确定冷却塔雨区水滴粒径分布

以某电厂逆流式自然通风冷却塔为研究对象,采用数值模拟方法对雨区水滴粒径大小的选取进行探究。针对过往研究中雨区水滴采用单一粒径不能同时兼顾热力特性和阻力特性准确性的不足,提出采用高斯分布粒径来实现DPM模型的数值模拟。通过将单一粒径、均匀分布粒径和高斯分布粒径3种设置条件下的数值模拟结果与冷却塔实测工况进行对比,结果表明粒径呈高斯分布的数值模拟能够更好的反映实测雨区的热力和阻力特性。

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED SHEAR LINES OVER THE TIBETAN PLATEAU AND ITS RELATIONSHIP WITH RAINSTORMS IN THE BOREAL SUMMER HALF-YEAR

In this paper,European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Reanalysis-Interim(ERAInterim)data and daily precipitation data in China from May to October during 1981-2016 are used to study the climatic characteristics of the meridionally oriented shear lines(MSLs)over the Tibetan Plateau(TP).The relationship between the MSL and rainstorms in the eastern TP and neighboring areas of the TP during the boreal summer half-year is also investigated.An objective method,which uses a combination of three parameters,i.e.the zonal shear of the meridional wind,the relative vorticity and the zero line of meridional wind,is adopted to identify the shear line.The results show that there are two high-occurrence centers of MSL.One is over the central TP(near 90°E)and the other is over the steep slope area of the eastern TP.Fewer MSLs are found along the Yarlung Zangbo River over the western TP and the southern Tibet.There are averagely 42.2 MSL days in each boreal summer half-year.The number of MSL days reaches the maximum of 62 in 2014 and the minimum of 22 in 2006.July and October witness the maximum of 10.2 MSL days/year and the minimum of 4.2 MSL days/year,respectively.The annual number of the MSL days shows periodicities of 2-4 and 4-6 years,which is quite similar to those of the MSL rainstorm days.In the neighboring areas of the TP,nearly56%of the MSLs lead to rainstorms,and nearly 40%of rainstorms are caused by the MSLs,indicating a close relationship between the MSLs and rainstorms in this region.

Intercomparison of CRA-Interim Precipitation Products with ERA5 and JRA-55

Based on the hourly observational data during 2007-2016 from surface meteorological stations in China,this paper compares the influence of 3-hourly precipitation data,mainly from the Chinese Reanalysis-Interim(CRA-Interim),ECMWF Reanalysis 5(ERA5)and Japanese Reanalysis-55(JRA-55),on the simulation of the spatial and temporal distribution of regional precipitation in China and the bias distribution of the simulation.The results show that:(1)The three sets of reanalysis datasets can all reflect the basic spatial distribution characteristics of annual average precipitation in China.The simulation of topographic forced precipitation in complex terrain by using CRA-interim is more detailed,while CRA-interim has larger negative bias in central and East China,and larger positive bias in southwest China.(2)In terms of seasonal precipitation,the three sets of reanalysis datasets overestimate the precipitation in the heavy rainfall zone in spring and summer,especially in southwest China.According to CRA-interim,location of the rain belt in the First Rainy Season in South China is west by south,and the summer precipitation has positive bias in southwest and South China.(3)All of the reanalysis datasets can basically reflect the distribution difference of inter-annual variation of drought and flood,but overall the CRA-Interim generally shows negative bias,while the ERA5 and JRA-55 exhibit positive bias.(4)For the diurnal variation of precipitation in summer,all the reanalysis datasets perform better in simulating the daytime precipitation than in the night,and the bias of CRA-interim is less in the Southeast and Northeast than elsewhere.(5)The ERA5 generally performs the best on the evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecast,the JRA-55 is the next,followed by the CRA-Interim.The CRA-Interim has higher missing rate and lower threat score for heavy rains;however,at the level of downpour,the CRA-Interim performs slightly better.

AN ANALYSIS OF THE APPLICABILITY OF FUZZY CLUSTERING IN ESTABLISHING AN INDEX FOR THE EVALUATION OF METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE SATISFACTION

An evaluation index is a prerequisite for the scientific evaluation of a public meteorological service.This paper aims to explore a technical method for determining and screening evaluation indicators.Based on public satisfaction survey data obtained in Wafangdian,China in 2010,this study investigates the suitability of fuzzy clustering analysis method in establishing an evaluation index.Through quantitative analysis of multilayer fuzzy clustering of various evaluation indicators,correlation analysis indicates that if the results of clustering were identical for two evaluation indicators in the same sub-evaluation layer,then one indicator could be removed,or the two indicators merged.For evaluation indicators in different sub-evaluation layers,although clustering reveals attribute correlations,these indicators may not be substituted for one another.Analysis of the applicability of the fuzzy clustering method shows that it plays a certain role in the establishment and correction of an evaluation index.

Impact of Dynamic and Thermal Forcing on the Intensity Evolution of the Vortices over the Tibetan Plateau in Boreal Summer

The Tibetan Plateau Vortex(TPV)is one of the main weather systems causing heavy rainfall over the Tibetan Plateau in boreal summer.Based on the second Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications(MERRA-2)reanalysis datasets provided by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration(NASA),8 cases of TPV over the Tibetan Plateau generated in June-August with a lifetime of 42 hours are composited and analyzed to reveal the impact of dynamic and thermal forcing on the intensity evolution of TPVs.The results are as follows.(1)The TPVs appear obviously at 500 h Pa and the TPVs intensity(TPVI)shows an obvious diurnal variation with the strongest at 00 LT and the weakest at 12 LT(LT=UTC+6 h).(2)A strong South Asia High at 200 h Pa as well as a shrunken Western Pacific Subtropical High at 500 h Pa provide favorable conditions for the TPVI increasing.(3)The vorticity budget reveals that the divergence is indicative of the variation of the TPVI.The TPVI decreases when the convergence center at500 h Pa and the divergence center at 200 h Pa lie in the east of the TPVs center and increases when both centers coincide with the TPVs center.(4)Potential vorticity(PV)increases with the enhancement of the TPVI.The PV budget shows that the variation of the TPVI is closely related to the diabatic heating over the Tibetan Plateau.The increased sensible heating and radiative heating in the boundary layer intensify the ascent and latent heating release.When the diabatic heating center rises to 400 h Pa,it facilitates the development of the TPVs.

Characteristics of an Explosive Cyclone over Northeast China Revealed by Satellite Water Vapor Imagery

In this paper,an explosive cyclone(EC)that occurred over Northeast China in the spring of 2016 is studied by using 6.7μm FY satellite water vapor(WV)imagery and NCEP(1°×1°)reanalysis data.Moreover,the evolutions of the upper-level jet stream(ULJ),the vertical motions,and the potential vorticity(PV)are analyzed in detail.Results show that different shapes of the WV image dark zones could reflect different stages of the EC.At the pre-explosion stage,a small dark zone and an S-shaped baroclinic leaf cloud can be found on the WV imagery.Then the dark zone expands and the leaf cloud grows into a comma-shaped cloud at the explosively developing stage.At the post-explosion stage,the dark zone brightens,and the spiral cloud forms.The whole process can be well described by the WV imagery.The dynamic dry band associated with the sinking motion and the ULJ can develop into the dry intrusion later,which is an important signal in forecasting the EC and should be paid attention to when analyzing the WV imagery.Furthermore,the mechanism is also analyzed in detail in this article.EC usually occurs in the left-exit region of the 200-h Pa jet and the region ahead of the 500-h Pa trough where there is significant positive vorticity advection(PVA).When the EC moves onto the sea surface,the decreased friction would favour the development of the EC.The upper-level PVA,the strong convergence at low level,and the divergence at high levels can maintain the strong updraft.Meanwhile,the high PV zone from the upper levels extends downward,approaching the cyclone.Together,they keep the cyclone deepening continuously.

Study on the Structure of a Horizontal Shear Line over the Tibetan Plateau Based on CRA-Interim Datasets and Its Comparison with ERA-Interim Datasets

The CRA-Interim trial production of the global atmospheric reanalysis for 10 years from 2007 to 2016 was carried out by the China Meteorological Administration in 2017. The structural characteristics of the horizontal shear line over the Tibetan Plateau (TPHSL) based on the CRA-Interim datasets are examined by objectively identifying the shear line, and are compared with the analysis results of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data (ERA-Interim). The case occurred at 18UTC on July 5, 2016. The results show that both of the ERA-Interim and CRA-Interim datasets can well reveal the circulation background and the dynamic and thermal structure characteristics of TPHSL, and they have shown some similar features. The middle and high latitudes at 500 hPa are characterized by the circulation situation of"two troughs and two ridges", and at 200 hPa, the TPHSL is located in the northeast quadrant of the South Asian High Pressure (SAHP). The TPHSL locates in the positive vorticity zone and passes through the positive vorticity center corresponding to the ascending motion. Near the TPHSL, the contours of pseudo-equivalent potential temperature (θse) tend to be intensive, with a high-value center on the south side of the TPHSL. The TPHSL can extend to460 hPa and vertically inclines northward. There is a positive vorticity zone near the TPHSL which is also characterized by the northward inclination with the height, the ascending motion near the TPHSL can extend to 300 hPa, and the atmospheric layer above the TPHSL is stable. However, the intensities of the TPHSL’s structure characteristics analyzed with the two datasets are different, revealing the relatively strong intensity of geopotential height field, vertical velocity field, vorticity field and divergence field from the CRA-Interim datasets. In addition, the vertical profiles of the dynamic and water vapor thermal physical quantities of the two datasets are also consistent in the east and west part of the TPHSL. In summary, the reliable and usable CRA-Interim datasets show excellent properties in the analysis on the structural characteristics of a horizontal shear line over the Tibetan Plateau.

Molecular analysis for diagnosis of Marfan syndrome and Marfan-associated disorders

Marfan syndrome is a systemic disorder of connective tissue, caused by mutations in the FBN1, TGFBR1 or TGFBR2 genes. This syndrome is characterized by involvement of three major systems, skeletal, ocular, and cardiovascular. The continuing improvements in molecular biology and increasing availability of molecular diagnosis in clinical practice allow recognition of Marfan syndrome in patients with incomplete phenotypes. Additionally, molecular analyses could also be used for preimplantation genetic diagnosis. The identification of a mutation allows for early diagnosis, prognosis, genetic counseling, preventive management of carriers and reassurance for unaffected relatives. The importance of knowing in advance the location of the putative family mutation is highlighted by its straightforward application to prenatal and postnatal screening.

Febuxostat, a nonpurine selective inhibitor of xanthine oxidase： a promising medical therapy for chronic heart failure？

Heart failure is currently one of the most common and most cost-intensive of the chronic diseases The main cause of chronic heart failure （CHF） is the abnormalities of both cardiac contractile performance and myocardial energy metabolism. Elevated levels of reactive oxygen species （ROS） have been proposed to contribute to both of them. Xanthine oxidoreductase （XO） is a major source of ROS in the cardiovascular system. XO inhibitors （XOIs） have been the cornerstone of the clinical management of gout and conditions associated with hyperuricemia for several decades.

614例急性腹泻患者诺如病毒基因型分析

目的 分析急性腹泻患者中诺如病毒的感染情况及流行基因型。方法 采用实时荧光定量PCR(RT-q PCR)对2014年-2019年丽水市人民医院614例急性腹泻患者的粪便标本进行诺如病毒的检测。结果 诺如病毒的检出率为19. 22%(118/614),其中性别差异无统计学意义(χ^(2)=1. 408,P> 0. 05);基因型以GⅡ型为主,其中GⅠ型和GⅡ型单独感染以及两者共同感染的检出率分别为0. 98%(6/614)、16. 78%(103/614)和1. 47%(9/614);感染对象主要为<15岁的儿童与少年,检出率为35. 81%(77/215),各年龄组检出率差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=61. 68,P <0. 000 1);感染存在明显的季节性,每年11月为感染高峰期,且各月份检出率差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=76. 12,P <0. 000 1)。结论 应在秋季中旬至冬季中旬,加强GⅡ型诺如病毒在丽水地区儿童群体中的分子流行病学监测与防控工作。