For high-reliability systems in military,aerospace,and railway fields,the challenges of reliability analysis lie in dealing with unclear failure mechanisms,complex fault relationships,lack of fault data,and uncertaint...For high-reliability systems in military,aerospace,and railway fields,the challenges of reliability analysis lie in dealing with unclear failure mechanisms,complex fault relationships,lack of fault data,and uncertainty of fault states.To overcome these problems,this paper proposes a reliability analysismethod based on T-S fault tree analysis(T-S FTA)and Hyper-ellipsoidal Bayesian network(HE-BN).The method describes the connection between the various systemfault events by T-S fuzzy gates and translates them into a Bayesian network(BN)model.Combining the advantages of T-S fault tree modeling with the advantages of Bayesian network computation,a reliability modeling method is proposed that can fully reflect the fault characteristics of complex systems.Experts describe the degree of failure of the event in the form of interval numbers.The knowledge and experience of experts are fused with the D-S evidence theory to obtain the initial failure probability interval of the BN root node.Then,the Hyper-ellipsoidal model(HM)constrains the initial failure probability interval and constructs a HE-BN for the system.A reliability analysismethod is proposed to solve the problem of insufficient failure data and uncertainty in the degree of failure.The failure probability of the system is further calculated and the key components that affect the system’s reliability are identified.The proposedmethod accounts for the uncertainty and incompleteness of the failure data in complex multi-state systems and establishes an easily computable reliability model that fully reflects the characteristics of complex faults and accurately identifies system weaknesses.The feasibility and accuracy of the method are further verified by conducting case studies.展开更多
Tropical cyclones(TCs)in the South China Sea(SCS)cause serious disasters and loss every year to the coastal and inland areas of southern China.The types of TCs are usually difficult to forecast,and studies on the unde...Tropical cyclones(TCs)in the South China Sea(SCS)cause serious disasters and loss every year to the coastal and inland areas of southern China.The types of TCs are usually difficult to forecast,and studies on the understanding of the TCs affecting the SCS are lacking.In this study,the authors use the TC data during 1965–2017 from two best-track datasets to analyse the climatic characteristics in terms of the frequency,the track activity,and the influencing indexes of the TCs affecting the SCS and investigate the possible causes.The results show that,during 1965–2017,there were 535 TCs affecting the SCS,mainly occurring from June to November of each year,with the annual average frequency exhibiting a significant downward trend.Meanwhile,the frequency of the track activity in most areas of the SCS also demonstrate a remarkable decreasing trend but an increase in the Gulf of Tonkin and the Taiwan Strait.The large-scale environmental anomalous westerlies and the decrease of humidity in the mid-and low-level over the northern part of the SCS are likely the main causes for the decrease in frequency and the track activity.In addition,the analysis using the cyclone activity index shows that the influence of the before mentioned TCs in southern China gradually decreases,while the influence of TCs in the SCS show a decreasing trend during past decades.展开更多
The Tian Shan is a vast range that spans several countries in Asia.Understanding its evolutionary history may provide valuable insights into intracontinental orogenic dynamics.In this study,we explored the crustal cha...The Tian Shan is a vast range that spans several countries in Asia.Understanding its evolutionary history may provide valuable insights into intracontinental orogenic dynamics.In this study,we explored the crustal characteristics of the Tian Shan and their relationships to the tectonic evolution of the region.A new H-stacking method that combines the P receiver function and gravity anomalies was used to estimate the thickness and ratio of P-to S-wave velocities(Vp/Vs)for 91 broadband seismic stations in the central and western Tian Shan.Our results revealed significant lateral variations in crustal thickness and Vp/Vs.A—45-km-thick crust and an intermediate-high Vp/Vs(-1.74-1.84)were found in the Kazakh Shield and Tarim Basin,which we interpreted to indicate a mafic crystalline basement and lower crust.The central Tian Shan varied greatly in crustal thickness(40-64 km)and Vp/Vs ratio(1.65-2.00).which may be due to crustal shortening,mafic underplating,and crustal melting.In contrast,we observed a relatively thin crust(42-50 km)with an intermediate Vp/Vs ratio(-1.78)in the western Tian Shan.The differences in the crustal structures between the western and central Tian Shan imply that the Talas-Fergana Fault may be trans-lithospheric.展开更多
Multiple failuremodes and strength degradation are usually inherent in the gear transmission system,which brings new challenges for conducting fatigue reliability analysis and design.This paper proposes a novel dynami...Multiple failuremodes and strength degradation are usually inherent in the gear transmission system,which brings new challenges for conducting fatigue reliability analysis and design.This paper proposes a novel dynamic fatigue reliability analysis method for failure dependence and strength degradation based on the combination of theCopula function and Gamma process.Firstly,the dynamic simulation model of the gear transmission system is established to obtain the dynamic stress-time history.The Gamma process is then used to describe the strength degradation to establish the dynamic stress-strength interference model.The marginal distribution functions of tooth contact fatigue and dedendumbending fatigue are calculated respectively based on the dynamic interferencemodel.Finally,the joint distribution of the two failure modes can be obtained by the t-Copula function to characterize the failure dependence,and so the dynamic fatigue reliability considering failure dependence can be estimated.The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated with examples.The results reveal the temporal law of reliability and the effects of failure dependence on dynamic fatigue reliability.展开更多
[Objectives] To establish a HPLC method for the simultaneous determination of three components( namely,quercetin,quercitrin and avicularin) in Herba Taxilli. [Methods]Agilent C18 liquid chromatography column( column s...[Objectives] To establish a HPLC method for the simultaneous determination of three components( namely,quercetin,quercitrin and avicularin) in Herba Taxilli. [Methods]Agilent C18 liquid chromatography column( column size: 150 mm × 4. 6 mm,5 m) was used;mobile phase Dacetonitrile∶ water = 22∶ 78; flow rate: 1. 0 m L/min; column temperature: 35℃; injection volume: 10 μL; detection wavelength: 254 nm. [Results]The injection volume of quercetin,quercitrin and avicularin was in a good linear relationship with the peak area in the range of 0. 22-4. 4 μg( R = 1),0. 096-3. 84 μg( R = 0. 999 6),and 0. 106-5. 3 μg( R = 0. 999 9),and the average sample recovery was 99. 32%,100. 53%,and 98. 96%,respectively. [Conclusions]The stability and reproducibility of the established method for determining the content of Herba Taxilli in this experiment are good,and it is expected to provide reference for its quality control and evaluation.展开更多
Purpose – This study aims to reduce the redundant weight of the anti-roll torsion bar brought by thetraditional empirical design and improving its strength and stiffness.Design/methodology/approach – Based on the fi...Purpose – This study aims to reduce the redundant weight of the anti-roll torsion bar brought by thetraditional empirical design and improving its strength and stiffness.Design/methodology/approach – Based on the finite element approach coupled with the improved belugawhale optimization (IBWO) algorithm, a collaborative optimization method is suggested to optimize the designof the anti-roll torsion bar structure and weight. The dimensions and material properties of the torsion bar weredefined as random variables, and the torsion bar’s mass and strength were investigated using finite elements.Then, chaotic mapping and differential evolution (DE) operators are introduced to improve the beluga whaleoptimization (BWO) algorithm and run case studies.Findings – The findings demonstrate that the IBWO has superior solution set distribution uniformity,convergence speed, solution correctness and stability than the BWO. The IBWO algorithm is used to optimizethe anti-roll torsion bar design. The error between the optimization and finite element simulation results wasless than 1%. The weight of the optimized anti-roll torsion bar was lessened by 4%, the maximum stress wasreduced by 35% and the stiffness was increased by 1.9%.Originality/value – The study provides a methodological reference for the simulation optimization process ofthe lateral anti-roll torsion bar.展开更多
A shear-wave velocity model of the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the SE Tibetan plateau was derived by inverting Rayleigh-wave group-velocity mea- surements of periods between 10 and 70 s. Rayleigh-wave group-vel...A shear-wave velocity model of the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the SE Tibetan plateau was derived by inverting Rayleigh-wave group-velocity mea- surements of periods between 10 and 70 s. Rayleigh-wave group-velocity dispersions along more than 3,000 inter- station paths were measured based on analysis of telese- ismic wavelbrm data recorded by temporary seismic stations. These observations were then utilized to construct 2D group-velocity maps in the period range of 10-70 s. Tile new group-velocity maps have an enhanced resolution compared with previous global and regional group-velocity models in this region because of the denser and more uniform data coverage. The lateral resolution across the region is about 0.5° for the periods used in this study. Local dispersion curves were then inverted for a 3D shear-wave velocity model of the region by applying a linear inversion scheme. Our 3D shear-wave model confirms the presence of low-velocity zones (LVZs) in the crust beneath the northern part of this region. Our irnaging shows that the upper-middle crustal LVZ beneath the Tengchong region is isolated from these LVZs beneath the eastern and northern part of this region. The upper-middle crustal LVZ may be regarded as evidence of a rnagma chamber in the crust beneath the Tengchong Volcanoes. Our model also reveals a slow lithospheric structure beneath Tengchong and a fast shield-like mantle beneath the stable Yangtze block.展开更多
This study investigated the distribution pattern of biological soil crust (BSC) in Artemisia ordosica communities in Mu Us Sandy Land. Three experimental sites were selected according to grazing pressure gradient. I...This study investigated the distribution pattern of biological soil crust (BSC) in Artemisia ordosica communities in Mu Us Sandy Land. Three experimental sites were selected according to grazing pressure gradient. In each experimental site, the total vegetation cover, A. ordosica cover, BSC cover, litter-fall cover, BSC degree of fragmentation, BSC thickness and soil properties were investigated in both fixed and semi-fixed sand dunes and simultaneously analyzed in the laboratory. The results showed that at the same grazing pressure, BSC cover and composition were significantly affected by the fixation degree of sand dunes. In addition, BSC cover in the fixed sand dunes was 83.74% on average, whereas it is proportionally dominated by 28% mosses, 21% lichens, and 51% algae. Meanwhile, BSC cover in the semi-fixed sand dunes was 23.54% on average, which is proportionally domi- nated by 6.3% mosses, 2.5% lichens, and 91.2% algae. Fine sand, organic matter, and total nitrogen (N) contents in the fixed sand dunes were all significantly higher than those in the semi-fixed sand dunes. Litter-fall cover de- creased along the grazing pressure gradient, whereas BSC fragmentation degree increased. Fine sand content decreased along with the increase of grazing pressure, whereas medium sand content increased in both fixed and semi-fixed dunes. The organic matter and total N contents in the no grazing site were significantly higher than those in light and normal grazing sites. However, there were no significant differences between the light and normal grazing sites. In addition, there were also no significant differences in BSC thickness between the light and normal grazing sites in the fixed sand dunes. However, a significant decrease was observed in both BSC cover and thick- ness in the normal grazing site. The BSC in the semi-fixed dunes was more sensitive to disturbance.展开更多
The protocol is the foundation of IoT technology, which plays an important role in the IoT device interworking and interoperability. The 5 G wireless communication system provides large-scale NB-IoT terminals access w...The protocol is the foundation of IoT technology, which plays an important role in the IoT device interworking and interoperability. The 5 G wireless communication system provides large-scale NB-IoT terminals access with F-RAN, and the vertical industry applications need support for the device management. As one of the most influential protocol in the IoT application, the oneM2M protocol not only has a complete architecture, but also has an interface with other IoT protocols. Therefore, to bridge the gap between the operator and industrial enterprises, the main contributions of this paper are as follows: Firstly, a general multi-protocol conversion method is proposed based on oneM2M platform where the protocol classification is used in different scenarios. Secondly, the F-RAN architecture of oneM2M platform is designed and implemented with NB-IoT device access. Thirdly, a multiplexing scheme to process the device information is proposed for interworking proxy entity(IPE), which improves the conversion efficiency for different protocols. Finally, the feasibility and efficiency of the scheme are verified.展开更多
Spatial scale partly explains the differentiated effects of habitat fragmentation on plant biodiversity,but the mechanisms remain unclear.To investigate the effects of habitat fragmentation on genetic diversity at dif...Spatial scale partly explains the differentiated effects of habitat fragmentation on plant biodiversity,but the mechanisms remain unclear.To investigate the effects of habitat fragmentation on genetic diversity at different scales,we sampled Actinidia chinensis Planch.at broad and fine scales,China.The broad-scale sampling included five mountain populations and one oceanic island population(Zhoushan Archipelago),and the fine-scale sampling covered 11 lake islands and three neighboring land populations in Thousand-Island Lake(TIL).These populations were genotyped at 30 microsatellite loci,and genetic diversity,gene flow,and genetic differentiation were evaluated.Genetic differentiation was positively related to geographical distance at the broad scale,indicating an isolation-bydistance effect of habitat fragmentation on genetic diversity.The oceanic population differed from the mainland populations and experienced recent bottleneck events,but it showed high gene flow with low genetic differentiation from a mountain population connected by the Yangtze River.At the fine scale,no negative genetic effects of habitat fragmentation were found because seed dispersal with water facilitates gene flow between islands.The population size of A.chinensis was positively correlated with the area of TIL islands,supporting island biogeography theory,but no correlation was found between genetic diversity and island area.Our results highlight the scale-dependent effects of habitat fragmentation on genetic diversity and the importance of connectivity between island-like isolated habitats at both the broad and fine scales.展开更多
Dendroremediation,a novel strategy for cleaning up contaminants from the environment by using special woody plant species and microbes,is a popular phytoremediation approach.It is a cost-effective and environmentally ...Dendroremediation,a novel strategy for cleaning up contaminants from the environment by using special woody plant species and microbes,is a popular phytoremediation approach.It is a cost-effective and environmentally friendly method that is being increasingly adopted.Poplar species(Populus L.)have been suggested for use in remediation because of their characteristics of high biomass production,fast growth,and potential for removing pollutants.Our environment is often contaminated by toxic substances produced by human activities,and remediation of contamination is therefore a global issue.Atrazine is one of the most widely used herbicides in China.In the present study,‘I-69/55’poplar(P.deltoides cv.‘I-69/55’)and hybrid poplar(Populus deltoides×nigra,DN34)grown in pots were assayed for their ability to remediate atrazine-contaminated soils.The degradation dynamics of atrazine were assessed with a high-performance liquid chromatography system using materials from a greenhouse with different rhizosphere environments.We studied the dynamic variation in microbes and microbial biomass carbon to elucidate the rhizosphere effects and mechanism of remediation of atrazine-contaminated soil by poplar.Our four treatments included a control with uncontaminated soil without a tree,atrazine pollution without a tree,atrazine pollution with‘I-69/55’poplar,and atrazine pollution with hybrid poplar.Hybrid poplar showed potential for remediation of atrazine-contaminated soil,and the degradation of atrazine in the rhizosphere was faster than that in non-rhizosphere soil.Atrazine significantly inhibited bacteria growth in nonrhizosphere soil.The high concentration of bacteria in the hybrid poplar rhizosphere might be key to atrazine degradation.Trends of change among fungi and actinomyces did not correspond to trends in atrazine degradation throughout the trial period.Further research is needed to predict the effects of atrazine on cultivable microorganisms in various soils.Atrazine had significant inhibitory effects on microbial biomass carbon in non-rhizosphere soil,and the rhizosphere environment of poplars enhanced the recovery of microbial biomass carbon.The potential for hybrid poplar as a dendroremediation material needs further study.展开更多
The North China Craton(NCC)is one of the oldest cratons on earth.Several important tectonic transformations of MesozoicCenozoic tectonic regime led to the destruction of the North China craton.The knowledge of crustal...The North China Craton(NCC)is one of the oldest cratons on earth.Several important tectonic transformations of MesozoicCenozoic tectonic regime led to the destruction of the North China craton.The knowledge of crustal structure can provide important constraints for the formation and evolution of cratons.New maps of sediment thickness,crustal thickness(H)and v_(P)/v_(S)(κ)in the central and western NCC were obtained using sequential H-κstacking.P-wave receiver functions are calculated using teleseismic waveform data recorded by 405 stations from Chin Array project.Benefiting from the densely distribution of temporary seismic stations,our results reveal details of the crustal structure in the study area.The thickness of sedimentary layer in North China ranges from 0–6.4 km,and the thickest sedimentary layer is in Ordos block and its surroundings(about 2.8–6 km);The thickness of sedimentary layer in the Mongolia fold belt and Yinshan orogenic belt is relatively thin(less than 1 km).The crustal thickness of the study area varies between 27–48 km,of which the crust of the North China Plain is about 30–33 km,the central NCC is about 33–40 km,and the Ordos block is 40–48 km thick.The average v_(P)/v_(S)ratios in the study area is mostly between 1.66 and 1.90,and that in the Yanshan-Taihang mountain fold belt is between 1.70 and 1.85,and that in the Ordos block is between 1.65 and 1.90,with an average value of 1.77,indicating the absence of a thick basaltic lower crust.The obvious negative correlation between crustal thickness and average v_(P)/v_(S)ratio within Ordos and Central Asia orogenic belt may be related to magmatic underplating during the crustal formation.There is no significant correlation between the crustal thickness and the v_(P)/v_(S)ratio in the Lüliang-Taihang mountain fold belt,which may be related to the multiple geological processes such as underplating and crustal extension and thinning in this area.The lack of correlation between crust thickness and topography in the central orogenic belt and the North China Basin indicates the topography of these areas are controlled not only by crustal isostatic adjustment but also by the lithospheric mantle processes.展开更多
In order to analyze the effect of rain enrichment on soil respiration rate of a Nitraria sphaerocarpa community, we measured soil respiration rate in bare and vegetated areas in a hyperarid area (Dunhuang) during th...In order to analyze the effect of rain enrichment on soil respiration rate of a Nitraria sphaerocarpa community, we measured soil respiration rate in bare and vegetated areas in a hyperarid area (Dunhuang) during the growing season. Results show that rain enrichment can increase bare and vegetated soil respiration rates. The more rainfall enrichment, the greater the increment and the longer duration time effect for soil respiration rate. 200% (16 mm) and 300% (24 mm) of rain enrichment can significantly increase bare soil respiration rates by 90% and 106% (P〈0.01), respectively. By contrast, areas with 100% (8 mm), 200% (16 mm) and 300% (24 mm) of rain enrichment can significantly increase shrub area respiration rates by 68%, 157% and 205% (P〈0.01), respectively. The response time of bare and vegetated soil respiration to rainfall enrichment is asynchronous. Response variable of soil respiration in vegetated soil is higher (118%) than in bare soil. There was significant positive correlation between soil respiration rate and soil water content during the growing season (P〈0.01). For every 1 mm increment of precipitation, soil respiration rate increased by 0.01 and 0.04 pmol/(m2.s), respectively in vegetated and bare soils.展开更多
With the development of the Internet of Things(Io T), people's lives have become increasingly convenient. It is desirable for smart home(SH) systems to integrate and leverage the enormous information available fro...With the development of the Internet of Things(Io T), people's lives have become increasingly convenient. It is desirable for smart home(SH) systems to integrate and leverage the enormous information available from IoT. Information can be analyzed to learn user intentions and automatically provide the appropriate services. However, existing service recommendation models typically do not consider the services that are unavailable in a user's living environment. In order to address this problem, we propose a series of semantic models for SH devices. These semantic models can be used to infer user intentions. Based on the models, we proposed a service recommendation probability model and an alternative-service recommending algorithm. The algorithm is devoted to providing appropriate alternative services when the desired service is unavailable. The algorithm has been implemented and achieves accuracy higher than traditional Hidden Markov Model(HMM). The maximum accuracy achieved is 68.3%.展开更多
For city planning and reducing potential earthquake risk,it’s necessary to detect the information of the buried faults in an urban area especially,including the location and activities.An integrated technique with ge...For city planning and reducing potential earthquake risk,it’s necessary to detect the information of the buried faults in an urban area especially,including the location and activities.An integrated technique with geophysical and geological methods,including the shallow seismic reflection profile,electrical resistivity measurement,geologic borehole section,and exploration trench,was used to detect the Chengnanhe fault,which is one of the two main faults passing through the Weihai urban area in Shandong province,China.The results show that it is a normal fault striking with E-W direction,and it is relatively inactive and stable.By using the thermoluminescence(TL)dating,we found that the Chengnanhe fault initiated in mid-Pleistocene and there was no offset after late Pleistocene.Such an integrated technique with multiple geological and geophysical methods provides a significant assessment of earthquake risk for city planning in urban areas.展开更多
The slagging characteristic of coal effects the safe operation of boiler unit directly, the study on coal slagging is paid more and more attention by scholars of the world. Because of the complexity of coal characteri...The slagging characteristic of coal effects the safe operation of boiler unit directly, the study on coal slagging is paid more and more attention by scholars of the world. Because of the complexity of coal characteristic, the blending coals slagging characteristic is more complex than single coal. The study method of blending coals characteristic is the same as the single coal method, but the simple method can’t distinguish the blending coals slagging characteristic well and truly. This paper gives the new distinguish method of blending coals slagging characteristic based on experimentation condition, it is the rate of slag and furnace refuse. The rate of slagging on furnace wall and the refuse on furnace bottom has utilized to distinguish the slagging characteristic of coal. The result shows that the rate of slag and furnace refuse method has better veracity.展开更多
In this study,the performance of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)Climate System Model version 1.1(BCCCSM1.1)(280-km resolution)and the BCC-CSM1.1 m(110-km resolution)in simulating extreme climate events over China in t...In this study,the performance of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)Climate System Model version 1.1(BCCCSM1.1)(280-km resolution)and the BCC-CSM1.1 m(110-km resolution)in simulating extreme climate events over China in the last 40 years is compared.Both models capture the main spatial distribution features of heavy precipitation(R95T),the number of consecutive wet days(CWD),the annual count of days with precipitation≥1 mm(R1),the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(Rx5),and the numbers of frost days(FD)and summer days(SU).The BCC-CSM1.1 m has a better ability to simulate the detailed distribution of extreme climate events than the BCCCSM1.1,including R95T,CWD,R1,and the simple precipitation intensity index(SDII).However,the BCCCSM 1.1 m does not show an improvement in simulating the number of days with extreme precipitation(R90N),the number of consecutive dry days(CDD),the heat wave duration index(HWDI),the warm day frequency(TX90 P),and cold night frequency(TN10P).This indicates that the simulation of the R95T,CWD,R1,and SDII climate events is more sensitive to the resolution of the model.The improved BCC-CSM1.1 m is used to explore the projection of extreme climate change in China during the 21 st century under the RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathways)and RCP8.5 scenarios.The results show that extreme precipitation will increase dramatically over North and Southwest China in the late 21 st century.The CWD index will decrease on the Tibetan Plateau and in northeastern and central China and will increase in other parts of China;R1 will increase in northern China and decrease in southern China;Rx5 will increase dramatically in southern China;FD will decrease and SU will increase over China in the late 21 st century under both emission scenarios,with larger amplitudes in RCP8.5.展开更多
Based on the recently released NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP)Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) dataset and the gridded observational daily dataset CN05.1, this stu...Based on the recently released NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP)Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) dataset and the gridded observational daily dataset CN05.1, this study evaluates the performance of 26 CMIP6 models in simulating extreme high temperature(EHT) indices in southwestern China and estimates future changes in the EHT indices under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs) SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 using 11 optimal CMIP6 models. Five EHT indices are employed:annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature(TXX), high temperature days(T35), warm days(TX90P),heat wave frequency(HWF), and heat wave days(HWD). The main results are as follows.(1) NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 is highly capable of simulating the spatial patterns of TXX and T35 in southwestern China but it presents a weaker ability to simulate the spatial patterns of TX90P, HWF, and HWD.(2) The simulated time series of T35, TX90P, HWF,and HWD in southwestern China exhibit consistent upward trends with the observations. The linear trends of increase in TX90P and HWD are much greater than those of increase in TXX, T35, and HWF.(3) The estimated increases in TXX and T35 in southwestern China are significantly greater in Chongqing and the adjacent areas of Sichuan than in the other regions. Spatial distributions of the increases in TX90P, HWF, and HWD generally show higher values in the west and lower values in the east.(4) In the three different scenarios, the projected future TXX,T35, TX90P, and HWD in southwestern China all display a continuous increase with time and radiative forcing levels, whereas HWF initially increases but then decreases under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, TXX and T35 are projected to increase by 6.0℃ and 45.0 days, respectively. The duration of individual heat waves is also expected to increase.展开更多
Marine protected areas(MPAs)across various countries have contributed to safeguarding coastal and marine environments.Despite these efforts,marine non-native species(NNS)continue to threaten biodiversity and ecosystem...Marine protected areas(MPAs)across various countries have contributed to safeguarding coastal and marine environments.Despite these efforts,marine non-native species(NNS)continue to threaten biodiversity and ecosystems,even within MPAs.Currently,there is a lack of comprehensive studies on the inventories,distribution patterns,and effect factors of NNS within MPAs.Here we show a database containing over 15,000 occurrence records of 2714 marine NNS across 16,401 national or regional MPAs worldwide.To identify the primary mechanisms driving the occurrence of NNS,we utilize model selection with proxies representing colonization pressure,environmental variables,and MPA characteristics.Among the environmental predictors analyzed,sea surface temperature emerged as the sole factor strongly associated with NNS richness.Higher sea surface temperatures are linked to increased NNS richness,aligning with global marine biodiversity trends.Furthermore,human activities help species overcome geographical barriers and migration constraints.Consequently,this influences the distribution patterns of marine introduced species and associated environmental factors.As global climate change continues to alter sea temperatures,it is crucial to protect marine regions that are increasingly vulnerable to intense human activities and biological invasions.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51875073).
文摘For high-reliability systems in military,aerospace,and railway fields,the challenges of reliability analysis lie in dealing with unclear failure mechanisms,complex fault relationships,lack of fault data,and uncertainty of fault states.To overcome these problems,this paper proposes a reliability analysismethod based on T-S fault tree analysis(T-S FTA)and Hyper-ellipsoidal Bayesian network(HE-BN).The method describes the connection between the various systemfault events by T-S fuzzy gates and translates them into a Bayesian network(BN)model.Combining the advantages of T-S fault tree modeling with the advantages of Bayesian network computation,a reliability modeling method is proposed that can fully reflect the fault characteristics of complex systems.Experts describe the degree of failure of the event in the form of interval numbers.The knowledge and experience of experts are fused with the D-S evidence theory to obtain the initial failure probability interval of the BN root node.Then,the Hyper-ellipsoidal model(HM)constrains the initial failure probability interval and constructs a HE-BN for the system.A reliability analysismethod is proposed to solve the problem of insufficient failure data and uncertainty in the degree of failure.The failure probability of the system is further calculated and the key components that affect the system’s reliability are identified.The proposedmethod accounts for the uncertainty and incompleteness of the failure data in complex multi-state systems and establishes an easily computable reliability model that fully reflects the characteristics of complex faults and accurately identifies system weaknesses.The feasibility and accuracy of the method are further verified by conducting case studies.
基金This work was jointly supported by General Project of Technological Innovation and Application Demonstration of Chongqing Municipality[cstc2018jscx-msybX0165]Special Project for Development of Key Technology for Meteorological Forecast Service of China Meteorological Administration[YBGJXM(2018)04-08]+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China[41875111]Innovation Team Project of Intelligent Meteorological Technology of Chongqing Meteorological Bureau[ZHCXTD-201804].
文摘Tropical cyclones(TCs)in the South China Sea(SCS)cause serious disasters and loss every year to the coastal and inland areas of southern China.The types of TCs are usually difficult to forecast,and studies on the understanding of the TCs affecting the SCS are lacking.In this study,the authors use the TC data during 1965–2017 from two best-track datasets to analyse the climatic characteristics in terms of the frequency,the track activity,and the influencing indexes of the TCs affecting the SCS and investigate the possible causes.The results show that,during 1965–2017,there were 535 TCs affecting the SCS,mainly occurring from June to November of each year,with the annual average frequency exhibiting a significant downward trend.Meanwhile,the frequency of the track activity in most areas of the SCS also demonstrate a remarkable decreasing trend but an increase in the Gulf of Tonkin and the Taiwan Strait.The large-scale environmental anomalous westerlies and the decrease of humidity in the mid-and low-level over the northern part of the SCS are likely the main causes for the decrease in frequency and the track activity.In addition,the analysis using the cyclone activity index shows that the influence of the before mentioned TCs in southern China gradually decreases,while the influence of TCs in the SCS show a decreasing trend during past decades.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China (Nos. U1839210, 41874097, 41474072, and 41874108)
文摘The Tian Shan is a vast range that spans several countries in Asia.Understanding its evolutionary history may provide valuable insights into intracontinental orogenic dynamics.In this study,we explored the crustal characteristics of the Tian Shan and their relationships to the tectonic evolution of the region.A new H-stacking method that combines the P receiver function and gravity anomalies was used to estimate the thickness and ratio of P-to S-wave velocities(Vp/Vs)for 91 broadband seismic stations in the central and western Tian Shan.Our results revealed significant lateral variations in crustal thickness and Vp/Vs.A—45-km-thick crust and an intermediate-high Vp/Vs(-1.74-1.84)were found in the Kazakh Shield and Tarim Basin,which we interpreted to indicate a mafic crystalline basement and lower crust.The central Tian Shan varied greatly in crustal thickness(40-64 km)and Vp/Vs ratio(1.65-2.00).which may be due to crustal shortening,mafic underplating,and crustal melting.In contrast,we observed a relatively thin crust(42-50 km)with an intermediate Vp/Vs ratio(-1.78)in the western Tian Shan.The differences in the crustal structures between the western and central Tian Shan imply that the Talas-Fergana Fault may be trans-lithospheric.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Contract No.51875073the Scientific Research Project of Education Department of Liaoning Province under Contract No.JDL2019005+1 种基金the Dalian Science and Technology Innovation Fund Plan under Contract No.2019J11CY017the Innovation Team Support Plan of Liaoning Higher Education under Contract No.LT2016010.
文摘Multiple failuremodes and strength degradation are usually inherent in the gear transmission system,which brings new challenges for conducting fatigue reliability analysis and design.This paper proposes a novel dynamic fatigue reliability analysis method for failure dependence and strength degradation based on the combination of theCopula function and Gamma process.Firstly,the dynamic simulation model of the gear transmission system is established to obtain the dynamic stress-time history.The Gamma process is then used to describe the strength degradation to establish the dynamic stress-strength interference model.The marginal distribution functions of tooth contact fatigue and dedendumbending fatigue are calculated respectively based on the dynamic interferencemodel.Finally,the joint distribution of the two failure modes can be obtained by the t-Copula function to characterize the failure dependence,and so the dynamic fatigue reliability considering failure dependence can be estimated.The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated with examples.The results reveal the temporal law of reliability and the effects of failure dependence on dynamic fatigue reliability.
基金Supported by Natural Science Foundation Project of Guangxi(2014GXNSFBA118195)Talent Training Construction Program of Team of Professor Yang Shilin in Guangxi University of Chinese Medicine(YSL17005)Project of National Natural Science Foundation(81660669)
文摘[Objectives] To establish a HPLC method for the simultaneous determination of three components( namely,quercetin,quercitrin and avicularin) in Herba Taxilli. [Methods]Agilent C18 liquid chromatography column( column size: 150 mm × 4. 6 mm,5 m) was used;mobile phase Dacetonitrile∶ water = 22∶ 78; flow rate: 1. 0 m L/min; column temperature: 35℃; injection volume: 10 μL; detection wavelength: 254 nm. [Results]The injection volume of quercetin,quercitrin and avicularin was in a good linear relationship with the peak area in the range of 0. 22-4. 4 μg( R = 1),0. 096-3. 84 μg( R = 0. 999 6),and 0. 106-5. 3 μg( R = 0. 999 9),and the average sample recovery was 99. 32%,100. 53%,and 98. 96%,respectively. [Conclusions]The stability and reproducibility of the established method for determining the content of Herba Taxilli in this experiment are good,and it is expected to provide reference for its quality control and evaluation.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No:51875073)China RAILWAY(No:K2021J042).
文摘Purpose – This study aims to reduce the redundant weight of the anti-roll torsion bar brought by thetraditional empirical design and improving its strength and stiffness.Design/methodology/approach – Based on the finite element approach coupled with the improved belugawhale optimization (IBWO) algorithm, a collaborative optimization method is suggested to optimize the designof the anti-roll torsion bar structure and weight. The dimensions and material properties of the torsion bar weredefined as random variables, and the torsion bar’s mass and strength were investigated using finite elements.Then, chaotic mapping and differential evolution (DE) operators are introduced to improve the beluga whaleoptimization (BWO) algorithm and run case studies.Findings – The findings demonstrate that the IBWO has superior solution set distribution uniformity,convergence speed, solution correctness and stability than the BWO. The IBWO algorithm is used to optimizethe anti-roll torsion bar design. The error between the optimization and finite element simulation results wasless than 1%. The weight of the optimized anti-roll torsion bar was lessened by 4%, the maximum stress wasreduced by 35% and the stiffness was increased by 1.9%.Originality/value – The study provides a methodological reference for the simulation optimization process ofthe lateral anti-roll torsion bar.
基金supported by the China National Special Fund for Earthquake Scientific Research in Public Interest(201008001)NSFC(41074067)
文摘A shear-wave velocity model of the crust and uppermost mantle beneath the SE Tibetan plateau was derived by inverting Rayleigh-wave group-velocity mea- surements of periods between 10 and 70 s. Rayleigh-wave group-velocity dispersions along more than 3,000 inter- station paths were measured based on analysis of telese- ismic wavelbrm data recorded by temporary seismic stations. These observations were then utilized to construct 2D group-velocity maps in the period range of 10-70 s. Tile new group-velocity maps have an enhanced resolution compared with previous global and regional group-velocity models in this region because of the denser and more uniform data coverage. The lateral resolution across the region is about 0.5° for the periods used in this study. Local dispersion curves were then inverted for a 3D shear-wave velocity model of the region by applying a linear inversion scheme. Our 3D shear-wave model confirms the presence of low-velocity zones (LVZs) in the crust beneath the northern part of this region. Our irnaging shows that the upper-middle crustal LVZ beneath the Tengchong region is isolated from these LVZs beneath the eastern and northern part of this region. The upper-middle crustal LVZ may be regarded as evidence of a rnagma chamber in the crust beneath the Tengchong Volcanoes. Our model also reveals a slow lithospheric structure beneath Tengchong and a fast shield-like mantle beneath the stable Yangtze block.
基金Funding was provided by the National Key Technology R&DP rogram (2012BAD16B01)the Special Research Program for Public-welfare Forestry of China (201104077)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31170667)
文摘This study investigated the distribution pattern of biological soil crust (BSC) in Artemisia ordosica communities in Mu Us Sandy Land. Three experimental sites were selected according to grazing pressure gradient. In each experimental site, the total vegetation cover, A. ordosica cover, BSC cover, litter-fall cover, BSC degree of fragmentation, BSC thickness and soil properties were investigated in both fixed and semi-fixed sand dunes and simultaneously analyzed in the laboratory. The results showed that at the same grazing pressure, BSC cover and composition were significantly affected by the fixation degree of sand dunes. In addition, BSC cover in the fixed sand dunes was 83.74% on average, whereas it is proportionally dominated by 28% mosses, 21% lichens, and 51% algae. Meanwhile, BSC cover in the semi-fixed sand dunes was 23.54% on average, which is proportionally domi- nated by 6.3% mosses, 2.5% lichens, and 91.2% algae. Fine sand, organic matter, and total nitrogen (N) contents in the fixed sand dunes were all significantly higher than those in the semi-fixed sand dunes. Litter-fall cover de- creased along the grazing pressure gradient, whereas BSC fragmentation degree increased. Fine sand content decreased along with the increase of grazing pressure, whereas medium sand content increased in both fixed and semi-fixed dunes. The organic matter and total N contents in the no grazing site were significantly higher than those in light and normal grazing sites. However, there were no significant differences between the light and normal grazing sites. In addition, there were also no significant differences in BSC thickness between the light and normal grazing sites in the fixed sand dunes. However, a significant decrease was observed in both BSC cover and thick- ness in the normal grazing site. The BSC in the semi-fixed dunes was more sensitive to disturbance.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2019PTB-017)
文摘The protocol is the foundation of IoT technology, which plays an important role in the IoT device interworking and interoperability. The 5 G wireless communication system provides large-scale NB-IoT terminals access with F-RAN, and the vertical industry applications need support for the device management. As one of the most influential protocol in the IoT application, the oneM2M protocol not only has a complete architecture, but also has an interface with other IoT protocols. Therefore, to bridge the gap between the operator and industrial enterprises, the main contributions of this paper are as follows: Firstly, a general multi-protocol conversion method is proposed based on oneM2M platform where the protocol classification is used in different scenarios. Secondly, the F-RAN architecture of oneM2M platform is designed and implemented with NB-IoT device access. Thirdly, a multiplexing scheme to process the device information is proposed for interworking proxy entity(IPE), which improves the conversion efficiency for different protocols. Finally, the feasibility and efficiency of the scheme are verified.
基金supported by the Biodiversity Survey,Observation and Assessment of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment,China(2019HJ2096001006)the General Research Project of CRAES,China(No.2016YSKY-08).
文摘Spatial scale partly explains the differentiated effects of habitat fragmentation on plant biodiversity,but the mechanisms remain unclear.To investigate the effects of habitat fragmentation on genetic diversity at different scales,we sampled Actinidia chinensis Planch.at broad and fine scales,China.The broad-scale sampling included five mountain populations and one oceanic island population(Zhoushan Archipelago),and the fine-scale sampling covered 11 lake islands and three neighboring land populations in Thousand-Island Lake(TIL).These populations were genotyped at 30 microsatellite loci,and genetic diversity,gene flow,and genetic differentiation were evaluated.Genetic differentiation was positively related to geographical distance at the broad scale,indicating an isolation-bydistance effect of habitat fragmentation on genetic diversity.The oceanic population differed from the mainland populations and experienced recent bottleneck events,but it showed high gene flow with low genetic differentiation from a mountain population connected by the Yangtze River.At the fine scale,no negative genetic effects of habitat fragmentation were found because seed dispersal with water facilitates gene flow between islands.The population size of A.chinensis was positively correlated with the area of TIL islands,supporting island biogeography theory,but no correlation was found between genetic diversity and island area.Our results highlight the scale-dependent effects of habitat fragmentation on genetic diversity and the importance of connectivity between island-like isolated habitats at both the broad and fine scales.
基金supported by the Central Non-profit Research Institution of Chinese Academy of Forestry(CAFYBB2017MA027,CAFYBB2014QB046)the Overseas Outstanding Scholars Lecture Program+2 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Non-profit Research Institution of CAF(CAFYBB2017ZF005)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.30700637,31460133)‘‘948’’ Project(No.2013-4-80)
文摘Dendroremediation,a novel strategy for cleaning up contaminants from the environment by using special woody plant species and microbes,is a popular phytoremediation approach.It is a cost-effective and environmentally friendly method that is being increasingly adopted.Poplar species(Populus L.)have been suggested for use in remediation because of their characteristics of high biomass production,fast growth,and potential for removing pollutants.Our environment is often contaminated by toxic substances produced by human activities,and remediation of contamination is therefore a global issue.Atrazine is one of the most widely used herbicides in China.In the present study,‘I-69/55’poplar(P.deltoides cv.‘I-69/55’)and hybrid poplar(Populus deltoides×nigra,DN34)grown in pots were assayed for their ability to remediate atrazine-contaminated soils.The degradation dynamics of atrazine were assessed with a high-performance liquid chromatography system using materials from a greenhouse with different rhizosphere environments.We studied the dynamic variation in microbes and microbial biomass carbon to elucidate the rhizosphere effects and mechanism of remediation of atrazine-contaminated soil by poplar.Our four treatments included a control with uncontaminated soil without a tree,atrazine pollution without a tree,atrazine pollution with‘I-69/55’poplar,and atrazine pollution with hybrid poplar.Hybrid poplar showed potential for remediation of atrazine-contaminated soil,and the degradation of atrazine in the rhizosphere was faster than that in non-rhizosphere soil.Atrazine significantly inhibited bacteria growth in nonrhizosphere soil.The high concentration of bacteria in the hybrid poplar rhizosphere might be key to atrazine degradation.Trends of change among fungi and actinomyces did not correspond to trends in atrazine degradation throughout the trial period.Further research is needed to predict the effects of atrazine on cultivable microorganisms in various soils.Atrazine had significant inhibitory effects on microbial biomass carbon in non-rhizosphere soil,and the rhizosphere environment of poplars enhanced the recovery of microbial biomass carbon.The potential for hybrid poplar as a dendroremediation material needs further study.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China(No.U1839210)。
文摘The North China Craton(NCC)is one of the oldest cratons on earth.Several important tectonic transformations of MesozoicCenozoic tectonic regime led to the destruction of the North China craton.The knowledge of crustal structure can provide important constraints for the formation and evolution of cratons.New maps of sediment thickness,crustal thickness(H)and v_(P)/v_(S)(κ)in the central and western NCC were obtained using sequential H-κstacking.P-wave receiver functions are calculated using teleseismic waveform data recorded by 405 stations from Chin Array project.Benefiting from the densely distribution of temporary seismic stations,our results reveal details of the crustal structure in the study area.The thickness of sedimentary layer in North China ranges from 0–6.4 km,and the thickest sedimentary layer is in Ordos block and its surroundings(about 2.8–6 km);The thickness of sedimentary layer in the Mongolia fold belt and Yinshan orogenic belt is relatively thin(less than 1 km).The crustal thickness of the study area varies between 27–48 km,of which the crust of the North China Plain is about 30–33 km,the central NCC is about 33–40 km,and the Ordos block is 40–48 km thick.The average v_(P)/v_(S)ratios in the study area is mostly between 1.66 and 1.90,and that in the Yanshan-Taihang mountain fold belt is between 1.70 and 1.85,and that in the Ordos block is between 1.65 and 1.90,with an average value of 1.77,indicating the absence of a thick basaltic lower crust.The obvious negative correlation between crustal thickness and average v_(P)/v_(S)ratio within Ordos and Central Asia orogenic belt may be related to magmatic underplating during the crustal formation.There is no significant correlation between the crustal thickness and the v_(P)/v_(S)ratio in the Lüliang-Taihang mountain fold belt,which may be related to the multiple geological processes such as underplating and crustal extension and thinning in this area.The lack of correlation between crust thickness and topography in the central orogenic belt and the North China Basin indicates the topography of these areas are controlled not only by crustal isostatic adjustment but also by the lithospheric mantle processes.
基金supported by the key projects of the central public research institutes for basic research funds(CAFYBB2007008)Forestry public sector specific research(201104077)
文摘In order to analyze the effect of rain enrichment on soil respiration rate of a Nitraria sphaerocarpa community, we measured soil respiration rate in bare and vegetated areas in a hyperarid area (Dunhuang) during the growing season. Results show that rain enrichment can increase bare and vegetated soil respiration rates. The more rainfall enrichment, the greater the increment and the longer duration time effect for soil respiration rate. 200% (16 mm) and 300% (24 mm) of rain enrichment can significantly increase bare soil respiration rates by 90% and 106% (P〈0.01), respectively. By contrast, areas with 100% (8 mm), 200% (16 mm) and 300% (24 mm) of rain enrichment can significantly increase shrub area respiration rates by 68%, 157% and 205% (P〈0.01), respectively. The response time of bare and vegetated soil respiration to rainfall enrichment is asynchronous. Response variable of soil respiration in vegetated soil is higher (118%) than in bare soil. There was significant positive correlation between soil respiration rate and soil water content during the growing season (P〈0.01). For every 1 mm increment of precipitation, soil respiration rate increased by 0.01 and 0.04 pmol/(m2.s), respectively in vegetated and bare soils.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program(No.2016YFB0800302)
文摘With the development of the Internet of Things(Io T), people's lives have become increasingly convenient. It is desirable for smart home(SH) systems to integrate and leverage the enormous information available from IoT. Information can be analyzed to learn user intentions and automatically provide the appropriate services. However, existing service recommendation models typically do not consider the services that are unavailable in a user's living environment. In order to address this problem, we propose a series of semantic models for SH devices. These semantic models can be used to infer user intentions. Based on the models, we proposed a service recommendation probability model and an alternative-service recommending algorithm. The algorithm is devoted to providing appropriate alternative services when the desired service is unavailable. The algorithm has been implemented and achieves accuracy higher than traditional Hidden Markov Model(HMM). The maximum accuracy achieved is 68.3%.
基金the Special Fund of China Seismic Experimental Site(Nos.2019CSES0103,2018CESE0102 and 2016CESE0203)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41630210,41674060,41974054,and 41974061)the“Active Faults Exploration and Seismic Hazard Assessment in Weihai City”funded by Weihai Municipal People's Government.
文摘For city planning and reducing potential earthquake risk,it’s necessary to detect the information of the buried faults in an urban area especially,including the location and activities.An integrated technique with geophysical and geological methods,including the shallow seismic reflection profile,electrical resistivity measurement,geologic borehole section,and exploration trench,was used to detect the Chengnanhe fault,which is one of the two main faults passing through the Weihai urban area in Shandong province,China.The results show that it is a normal fault striking with E-W direction,and it is relatively inactive and stable.By using the thermoluminescence(TL)dating,we found that the Chengnanhe fault initiated in mid-Pleistocene and there was no offset after late Pleistocene.Such an integrated technique with multiple geological and geophysical methods provides a significant assessment of earthquake risk for city planning in urban areas.
文摘The slagging characteristic of coal effects the safe operation of boiler unit directly, the study on coal slagging is paid more and more attention by scholars of the world. Because of the complexity of coal characteristic, the blending coals slagging characteristic is more complex than single coal. The study method of blending coals characteristic is the same as the single coal method, but the simple method can’t distinguish the blending coals slagging characteristic well and truly. This paper gives the new distinguish method of blending coals slagging characteristic based on experimentation condition, it is the rate of slag and furnace refuse. The rate of slagging on furnace wall and the refuse on furnace bottom has utilized to distinguish the slagging characteristic of coal. The result shows that the rate of slag and furnace refuse method has better veracity.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFE0102404)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41875111)+1 种基金Forecasters’ Project of China Meteorological Administration(CMAYBY2018-062 and CMAYBY2019-096)Project for Construction of Chongqing Short-Term Climate Prediction Operational Platform
文摘In this study,the performance of the Beijing Climate Center(BCC)Climate System Model version 1.1(BCCCSM1.1)(280-km resolution)and the BCC-CSM1.1 m(110-km resolution)in simulating extreme climate events over China in the last 40 years is compared.Both models capture the main spatial distribution features of heavy precipitation(R95T),the number of consecutive wet days(CWD),the annual count of days with precipitation≥1 mm(R1),the maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation(Rx5),and the numbers of frost days(FD)and summer days(SU).The BCC-CSM1.1 m has a better ability to simulate the detailed distribution of extreme climate events than the BCCCSM1.1,including R95T,CWD,R1,and the simple precipitation intensity index(SDII).However,the BCCCSM 1.1 m does not show an improvement in simulating the number of days with extreme precipitation(R90N),the number of consecutive dry days(CDD),the heat wave duration index(HWDI),the warm day frequency(TX90 P),and cold night frequency(TN10P).This indicates that the simulation of the R95T,CWD,R1,and SDII climate events is more sensitive to the resolution of the model.The improved BCC-CSM1.1 m is used to explore the projection of extreme climate change in China during the 21 st century under the RCP4.5(Representative Concentration Pathways)and RCP8.5 scenarios.The results show that extreme precipitation will increase dramatically over North and Southwest China in the late 21 st century.The CWD index will decrease on the Tibetan Plateau and in northeastern and central China and will increase in other parts of China;R1 will increase in northern China and decrease in southern China;Rx5 will increase dramatically in southern China;FD will decrease and SU will increase over China in the late 21 st century under both emission scenarios,with larger amplitudes in RCP8.5.
基金Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Innovation and Development Project (CXFZ2022J031 and CXFZ2021J018)National Natural Science Foundation of China (41875111 and 40975058)Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing,China(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX0558 and CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX0890)。
文摘Based on the recently released NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP)Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) dataset and the gridded observational daily dataset CN05.1, this study evaluates the performance of 26 CMIP6 models in simulating extreme high temperature(EHT) indices in southwestern China and estimates future changes in the EHT indices under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs) SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 using 11 optimal CMIP6 models. Five EHT indices are employed:annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature(TXX), high temperature days(T35), warm days(TX90P),heat wave frequency(HWF), and heat wave days(HWD). The main results are as follows.(1) NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 is highly capable of simulating the spatial patterns of TXX and T35 in southwestern China but it presents a weaker ability to simulate the spatial patterns of TX90P, HWF, and HWD.(2) The simulated time series of T35, TX90P, HWF,and HWD in southwestern China exhibit consistent upward trends with the observations. The linear trends of increase in TX90P and HWD are much greater than those of increase in TXX, T35, and HWF.(3) The estimated increases in TXX and T35 in southwestern China are significantly greater in Chongqing and the adjacent areas of Sichuan than in the other regions. Spatial distributions of the increases in TX90P, HWF, and HWD generally show higher values in the west and lower values in the east.(4) In the three different scenarios, the projected future TXX,T35, TX90P, and HWD in southwestern China all display a continuous increase with time and radiative forcing levels, whereas HWF initially increases but then decreases under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, TXX and T35 are projected to increase by 6.0℃ and 45.0 days, respectively. The duration of individual heat waves is also expected to increase.
基金Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program[grant number 2019QZKK0501]Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program[grant number 2021xjkk0600]+1 种基金Biodiversity Survey,Monitoring and Assessment Project of Ministry of Ecology and Environment,China[grant number 2019HB2096001006]Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Public-interest Scientific Institution[grant number 2020YSKY-008].
文摘Marine protected areas(MPAs)across various countries have contributed to safeguarding coastal and marine environments.Despite these efforts,marine non-native species(NNS)continue to threaten biodiversity and ecosystems,even within MPAs.Currently,there is a lack of comprehensive studies on the inventories,distribution patterns,and effect factors of NNS within MPAs.Here we show a database containing over 15,000 occurrence records of 2714 marine NNS across 16,401 national or regional MPAs worldwide.To identify the primary mechanisms driving the occurrence of NNS,we utilize model selection with proxies representing colonization pressure,environmental variables,and MPA characteristics.Among the environmental predictors analyzed,sea surface temperature emerged as the sole factor strongly associated with NNS richness.Higher sea surface temperatures are linked to increased NNS richness,aligning with global marine biodiversity trends.Furthermore,human activities help species overcome geographical barriers and migration constraints.Consequently,this influences the distribution patterns of marine introduced species and associated environmental factors.As global climate change continues to alter sea temperatures,it is crucial to protect marine regions that are increasingly vulnerable to intense human activities and biological invasions.