Research on Short-Term Load Forecasting of Distribution Stations Based on the Clustering Improvement Fuzzy Time Series Algorithm

An improved fuzzy time series algorithmbased on clustering is designed in this paper.The algorithm is successfully applied to short-term load forecasting in the distribution stations.Firstly,the K-means clustering method is used to cluster the data,and the midpoint of two adjacent clustering centers is taken as the dividing point of domain division.On this basis,the data is fuzzed to form a fuzzy time series.Secondly,a high-order fuzzy relation with multiple antecedents is established according to the main measurement indexes of power load,which is used to predict the short-term trend change of load in the distribution stations.Matlab/Simulink simulation results show that the load forecasting errors of the typical fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−50,20]and[−50,30],while the load forecasting errors of the improved fuzzy time series on the time scale of one day and one week are[−20,15]and[−20,25].It shows that the fuzzy time series algorithm improved by clustering improves the prediction accuracy and can effectively predict the short-term load trend of distribution stations.

A Fault Risk Warning Method of Integrated Energy Systems Based on RelieF-Softmax Algorithm

The integrated energy systems,usually including electric energy,natural gas and thermal energy,play a pivotal role in the energy Internet project,which could improve the accommodation of renewable energy through multienergy complementary ways.Focusing on the regional integrated energy system composed of electrical microgrid and natural gas network,a fault risk warning method based on the improved RelieF-softmax method is proposed in this paper.The raw data-set was first clustered by the K-maxmin method to improve the preference of the random sampling process in the RelieF algorithm,and thereby achieved a hierarchical and non-repeated sampling.Then,the improved RelieF algorithm is used to identify the feature vectors,calculate the feature weights,and select the preferred feature subset according to the initially set threshold.In addition,a correlation coefficient method is applied to reduce the feature subset,and further eliminate the redundant feature vectors to obtain the optimal feature subset.Finally,the softmax classifier is used to obtain the early warnings of the integrated energy system.Case studies are conducted on an integrated energy system in the south of China to demonstrate the accuracy of fault risk warning method proposed in this paper.

Optimal Scheduling for Flexible Regional Integrated Energy Systemwith Soft Open Point

The Regional Integrated Energy System(RIES)has brought new modes of development,utilization,conversion,storage of energy.The introduction of Soft Open Point(SOP)and the application of Power to Gas(P2G)technology will greatly deepen the coupling of the electricity-gas integrated energy system,improve the flexibility and safety of the operation of the power system,and bring a deal of benefits to the power system.On this background,an optimal dispatch model of RIES combined cold,heat,gas and electricity with SOP is proposed.Firstly,RIES architecture with SOP and P2G is designed and its mathematical model also is built.Secondly,on the basis of considering the optimal scheduling of combined cold,heat,gas and electricity,the optimal scheduling model for RIES was established.After that,the original model is transformed into a mixed-integer second-order cone programming model by using linearization and second-order cone relaxation techniques,and the CPLEX solver is invoked to solve the optimization problem.Finally,the modified IEEE 33-bus systemis used to analyze the benefits of SOP,P2G technology and lithium bromide absorption chillers in reducing systemnetwork loss and cost,as well as improving the system’s ability to absorb wind and solar and operating safety.

Fuzzy Droop Control for SOC Balance and Stability Analysis of DC Microgrid with Distributed Energy Storage Systems

The unbalanced state of charge(SOC)of distributed energy storage systems(DESSs)in autonomous DC microgrid causes energy storage units(ESUs)to terminate operation due to overcharge or overdischarge,which severely affects the power quality.In this paper,a fuzzy droop control for SOC balance and stability analysis of DC microgrid with DESSs is proposed to achieve SOC balance in ESUs while maintaining a stable DC bus voltage.First,the charge and discharge modes of ESUs are determined based on the power supply requirements of the DC microgrid.One-dimensional fuzzy logic is then applied to establish the relationship between SOC and the droop coefficient R,in the aforementioned two modes.In addition,when integrated with voltage-current double closed-loop control,SOC balance in different ESUs is realized.To improve the balance speed and precision,an exponential acceleration factor is added to the input variable of the fuzzy controller.Finally,based on the average model of converter,the system-level stability of microgrid is analyzed.MATLAB/Simulink simulation results verify the effectiveness and rationality of the proposed method.

Unified Residue Method for Design of Compact Wide-area Damping Controller Based on Power System Stabilizer

A wide-area damping controller(WADC)is effective in damping inter-area low-frequency oscillation(LFO),if the time delay in a wide-area control loop can be properly handled.In order to simplify the WADC design and enlarge the delay adaptation range,the classic power system stabilizer(PSS)is adopted,and a new unified residue(UR)method is proposed for compact WADC design.The strategy of control loop selection is also improved by modifying the relative residue index based on a few dominant oscillation modes.The designed PSSbased compact WADC is as simple as classic PSS with no more than two lead-lag phase compensation units.Case studies are carried out on an IEEE 16-machine 68-bus power system.Simulation results demonstrate that the control loop selection before the WADC design is necessary and that the proposed selection strategy can easily pick out the suitable candidate control loops.In addition,it is feasible for the UR method to design WADCs with different time delays in the selected control loops.All the designed WADCs are effective in damping inter-area LFO and robust to time delay variations under operation conditions.Comparisons among five design methods for PSS-based WADC show that the proposed UR method is superior in delay adaptation,the conciseness of WADC structure and computation speed of parameters.