Predictive factors for the local recurrence and distant metastasis of phyllodes tumors of the breast: a retrospective analysis of 192 cases at a single center

The local recurrence rate of phyllodes tumors of the breast varies widely among different subtypes, and distant metastasis is associated with poor survival. This study aimed to identify factors that are predictive of local recurrence-free survival(LRFS), distant metastasis-free survival(DMFS), and overall survival(OS) in patients with phyllodes tumors of the breast. Clinical data of all patients with a phyllodes tumor of the breast(n = 192) treated at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between March 1997 and December 2012 were reviewed. The Pearson χ2 test was used to investigate the relationship between clinical features of patients and histotypes of tumors. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify factors that are predictive of LRFS, DMFS, and OS. In total, 31(16.1%) patients developed local recurrence, and 12(6.3%) developed distant metastasis. For the patients who developed local recurrence, the median age at the diagnosis of primary tumor was 33 years(range, 17-56 years), and the median size of primary tumor was 6.0 cm(range, 0.8-18 cm). For patients who developed distant metastasis, the median age at the diagnosis of primary tumor was 46 years(range, 24-68 years), and the median size of primary tumor was 5.0 cm(range, 0.8-18 cm). In univariate analysis, age, size, hemorrhage, and margin status were found to be predictive factors for LRFS(P = 0.009, 0.024, 0.004, and 0.001, respectively), whereas histotype, epithelial hyperplasia, margin status, and local recurrence were predictors of DMFS(P = 0.001, 0.007, 0.007, and < 0.001, respectively). In multivariate analysis, independent prognostic factors for LRFS included age [hazard ratio(HR) = 3.045, P = 0.005], tumor size(HR = 2.668, P = 0.013), histotype(HR = 1.715, P = 0.017), and margin status(HR = 4.530, P< 0.001). Histotype(DMFS: HR = 4.409, P = 0.002; OS: HR = 4.194, P = 0.003) and margin status(DMFS: HR = 2.581, P = 0.013; OS: HR = 2.507, P = 0.020) were independent predictors of both DMFS and OS. In this cohort, younger age, a larger tumor size, a higher tumor grade, and positive margins were associated with lower rates of LRFS. Histotype and margin status were found to be independent predictors of DMFS and OS.

Population attributable risks of cigarette smoking for deaths of all causes, all cancers and other chronic diseases among adults aged 40-74 years in urban Shanghai, China

Objective： To evaluate the population attributable risks （PARs） between cigarette smoking and deaths of all causes, all cancers, lung cancer and other chronic diseases in urban Shanghai. Methods： In total, 61,480 men aged 40-74 years from 2002 to 2006 and 74,941 women aged 40-70 years from 1997 to 2000 were recruited to undergo baseline surveys in urban Shanghai, with response rates of 74.0% and 92.3%, respectively. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate relative risks （RRs） and 95% confidence intervals （95% CIs） of deaths associated with cigarette smoking. PARs and 95 % CIs for deaths were estimated from smoking exposure rates and the estimated RRs. Results： Cigarette smoking was responsible for 23.9% （95% CI： 19.4-28.3%） and 2.4% （95% Ch 1.6- 3.2%） of all deaths in men and women, respectively, in our study population. Respiratory disease had the highest PAR in men [37.5% （95% CI： 21.5-51.6%）], followed by cancer [31.3% （95% Ch 24.6-37.7%）] and cardiovascular disease （CVD） [24.1% （95% CI： 16.7-31.2%）]. While the top three PARs were 12.7% （95% CI： 6.1-19.3%）, 4.0% （95% CI： 2.4-5.6%）, and 1.1% （95% CI： 0.0-2.3%）, for respiratory disease, CVD, and cancer, respectively in women. For deaths of lung cancer, the PAR of smoking was 68.4% （95% CI： 58.2- 76.5%） in men. Conclusions： In urban Shanghai, 23.9% and 2.4% of all deaths in men and women could have been prevented if no people had smoked in the area. Effective control programs against cigarette smoking should be strongly advocated to reduce the increasing smoking-related death burden.

Risk prediction models for hepatocellular carcinoma in different populations

Hepatocellular carcinoma （HCC） is a malignant disease with limited therapeutic options due to its aggressive progression. It places heaW burden on most low and middle income countries to treat HCC patients. Nowadays accurate HCC risk predictions can help making decisions on the need for HCC surveillance and antiviral therapy. HCC risk prediction models based on major risk factors of HCC are useful and helpful in providing adequate surveillance strategies to individuals who have different risk levels. Several risk prediction models among cohorts of different populations for estimating HCC incidence have been presented recently by using simple, efficient, and ready-to-use parameters. Moreover, using predictive scoring systems to assess HCC development can provide suggestions to improve clinical and public health approaches, making them more cost-effective and effort-effective, for inducing personalized surveillance programs according to risk stratification. In this review, the features of risk prediction models of HCC across different populations were summarized, and the perspectives of HCC risk prediction models were discussed as well.