Climatic response of Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica tree-ring width and precipitation reconstruction for the northern Greater Higgnan Mountains, China, since 1720

August-June precipitation has been reconstructed back to AD 1720 for the northern Greater Higgnan Mountains, China, by use ofPinus sylvestris var. mongolica tree-ring width. The reconstruction explains the variance of 39% in observed precipitation from 1973 to 2008. Some extremely dry/wet signals in historical documents and other precipitation reconstructions in previous studies are precisely captured in our reconstruction. Wet periods occurred during the periods of 1730 to 1746, 1789 to 1812, 1844 to 1903, 1920 to 1930, 1942 to 1961, and 1985 to 1998; while periods of 1747 to 1788, 1813 to 1843, 1904 to 1919, 1931 to 1941, and 1962 to 1984 were relatively dry. Power spectral and wavelet analyses demon- strated the existence of significant 24-year, 12-year, and 2-year cycles of variability.

Coupled Pacific Rim megadroughts contributed to the fall of the MingDynasty’s capital in 1644 CE

Historical documents provide evidence for regional droughts preceding the political turmoil and fall of Beijing in 1644 CE,when more than 20 million people died in northern China during the late Ming famine period.However,the role climate and environmental changes may have played in this pivotal event in Chinese history remains unclear.Here,we provide tree-ring evidence of persistent megadroughts from1576 to 1593 CE and from 1628 to 1644 CE in northern China,which coincided with exceptionally cold summers just before the fall of Beijing.Our analysis reveals that these regional hydroclimatic extremes are part of a series of megadroughts along the Pacific Rim,which not only impacted the ecology and society of monsoonal northern China,but likely also exacerbated external geopolitical and economic pressures.This finding is corroborated by last millennium reanalysis data and numerical climate model simulations revealing internally driven Pacific sea surface temperature variations and the predominance of decadal scale La Ni?a-like conditions to be responsible for precipitation decreases over northern China,as well as extensive monsoon regions in the Americas.These teleconnection patterns provide a mechanistic explanation for reoccurring drought spells during the late Ming Dynasty and the environmental framework fostering the fall of Beijing in 1644 CE,and the subsequent demise of the Ming Dynasty.

High-resolution reconstruction of April-September precipitation and major extreme droughts in China over the past∼530 years

Extreme drought events have increased,causing serious losses and damage to the social economy under current warming conditions.However,short-term meteorological data limit our understanding and projection of these extremes.With the accumulation of proxy data,especially tree-ring data,large-scale precipitation field reconstruction has provided opportunities to explore underlying mechanisms further.Using point-by-point regression,we reconstructed the April-September precipitation field in China for the past~530 years on the basis of 590 proxy records,including 470 tree-ring width chronologies and 120 drought/flood indices.Our regression models explained average 50%of the variance in precipitation.In the statistical test on calibration and verification,our models passed the significance level that assured reconstruction quality.The reconstruction data performed well,showing consistency and better quality than previously reported reconstructions.The first three leading modes of variability in the reconstruction revealed the main distribution modes of precipitation over China.Wet/drought and extremely wet/drought years accounted for 12.81%/10.92%(68 years/58 years)and 1.69%/3.20%(9 years/17 years)of the past~530 years in China,respectively.Major extreme drought events can be identified explicitly in our reconstruction.The detailed features of the Chongzhen Great Drought(1637-1643),the Wanli Great Drought(1585-1590),and the Ding-Wu Great Famine(1874-1879),indicated the existence of potentially different underlying mechanisms that need further exploration.Although further improvements can be made for remote uninhabited areas and large deserts,our gridded reconstruction of April-September precipitation in China over the past~530 years can provide a solid database for studies on the attribution of climate change and the mechanism of extreme drought events.