本论文基于WACCM(Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model)模式最新版本WACCM6和DART(Data Assimilation Research TestBed)同化工具最新版本Manhattan,开发了中高层大气温度、臭氧和水汽卫星资料的同化接口,搭建了一个包含完整平流...本论文基于WACCM(Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model)模式最新版本WACCM6和DART(Data Assimilation Research TestBed)同化工具最新版本Manhattan,开发了中高层大气温度、臭氧和水汽卫星资料的同化接口,搭建了一个包含完整平流层过程的数值同化、天气预报和短期气候预测模型(此后简称模型);本模型对2020年3~4月平流层大气变化进行了同化观测资料的模拟,并以同化试验输出的分析场作为初值,对5~6月的平流层大气进行了0~30天天气尺度预报以及31~60天短期气候尺度预测的回报试验。结果表明:本模型能较好地重现2020年3、4月北极平流层出现的大规模臭氧损耗事件随时间的演变特征,模拟结果和Microwave Limb Sounder(MLS)卫星观测结果很接近;而未进行同化的模拟试验,虽然可以模拟出北极臭氧损耗现象,但是模拟的臭氧损耗规模相比MLS卫星观测结果要低很多;利用同化试验4月末输出的分析场作为初值,预报的5月北极平流层臭氧体积混合比变化与MLS卫星观测值的差值小于0.5,预测的6月北极平流层臭氧变化只在10~30 hPa之间的区域,与观测之间的差异达到了1 ppm(ppm=10^(-6))。本模型不但改善了北极平流层化学成分变化的模拟,也显著地提升了北极平流层温度和环流的模拟。本模型同化模拟的3~4月、预报预测的5~6月北极平流层温度和纬向风变化与Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications,Version 2(MERRA2)再分析资料结果具有很好的一致性,仅在北极平流层顶部,预报预测的温度和纬向风分别与再分析资料之间的均方根误差(RMSE)约为3 K和4 m s^(-1)。未进行同化的试验模拟的3~4月、预报预测的5~6月北极平流层的温度和纬向风与MERRA2再分析资料之间的RMSE在大部分区域都达到6 K及5 m s^(-1)以上。从全球范围来看,本模型对平流层中低层模拟性能改善最为显著,其预报预测结果与观测值之间的差异,比未进行同化试验的结果,减少了50%以上。展开更多
Changes in rainfall extremes pose a serious and additional threat to water resources planning and management, natural and artificial oasis stability, and sustainable development in the fragile ecosystems of arid inlan...Changes in rainfall extremes pose a serious and additional threat to water resources planning and management, natural and artificial oasis stability, and sustainable development in the fragile ecosystems of arid inland river basins. In this study, the trend and temporal variation of extreme precipitation are analyzed using daily precipitation datasets at 11 stations over the arid inland Heihe River basin in Northwest China from 1960 to 2011. Eight indices of extreme precipitation are studied. The results show statistically significant and large-magnitude increasing and decreasing trends for most indices, primarily in the Qilian Mountains and eastern Hexi Corridor. More frequent and intense rainfall extremes have occurred in the southern part of the desert area than in the northern portion. In general, the temporal variation in precipitation extremes has changed throughout the basin. Wet day precipitation and heavy precipitation days show statistically significant linear increasing trends and step changes in the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor. Consecutive dry days have decreased obviously in the region in most years after approximately the late 1980s, but meanwhile very long dry spells have increased, especially in the Hexi Corridor. The probability density function indicates that very long wet spells have increased in the Qilian Mountains. The East Asian summer monsoon index and western Pacific subtropical high intensity index possess strong and significant negative and positive correlations with rainfall extremes, respectively. Changes in land surface characteristics and the increase in water vapor in the wet season have also contributed to the changes in precipitation extremes over the river basin.展开更多
The effects of E1Nifio Modoki events on global ozone concentrations are investigated from 1980 to 2010 E1 Nifio Modoki events cause a stronger Brewer-Dobson （BD） circulation which can transports more ozone-poor air ...The effects of E1Nifio Modoki events on global ozone concentrations are investigated from 1980 to 2010 E1 Nifio Modoki events cause a stronger Brewer-Dobson （BD） circulation which can transports more ozone-poor air from the troposphere to stratosphere, leading to a decrease of ozone inthe lower-middle stratosphere from 90~S to 90~N. These changes in ozone concentrations reduce stratospheric column ozone. The reduction in stratospheric column ozone during E1 Nifio Modoki events is more pronounced over the tropical eastern Pacific than over other tropical areas because transport of ozone-poor air from middle-high latitudes in both hemispheres to low latitudes is the strongest between 60°W and 120°W. Because of the decrease in stratospheric column ozone during E1 Nifio Modoki events more UV radiation reaches the tropical troposphere leading to significant increases in tropospheric column ozone An empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis of the time series from 1980 to 2010 of stratospheric and tropospheric ozone monthly anomalies reveals that： E1 Nifio Modoki events are associated with the primary EOF modes of both time series. We also found that E1 Nifio Modoki events can affect global ozone more significantly than canonical E1 Nifio events. These results imply that E1 Nifio Modoki is a key contributor to variations in global ozone from 1980 to 2010.展开更多
文摘本论文基于WACCM(Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model)模式最新版本WACCM6和DART(Data Assimilation Research TestBed)同化工具最新版本Manhattan,开发了中高层大气温度、臭氧和水汽卫星资料的同化接口,搭建了一个包含完整平流层过程的数值同化、天气预报和短期气候预测模型(此后简称模型);本模型对2020年3~4月平流层大气变化进行了同化观测资料的模拟,并以同化试验输出的分析场作为初值,对5~6月的平流层大气进行了0~30天天气尺度预报以及31~60天短期气候尺度预测的回报试验。结果表明:本模型能较好地重现2020年3、4月北极平流层出现的大规模臭氧损耗事件随时间的演变特征,模拟结果和Microwave Limb Sounder(MLS)卫星观测结果很接近;而未进行同化的模拟试验,虽然可以模拟出北极臭氧损耗现象,但是模拟的臭氧损耗规模相比MLS卫星观测结果要低很多;利用同化试验4月末输出的分析场作为初值,预报的5月北极平流层臭氧体积混合比变化与MLS卫星观测值的差值小于0.5,预测的6月北极平流层臭氧变化只在10~30 hPa之间的区域,与观测之间的差异达到了1 ppm(ppm=10^(-6))。本模型不但改善了北极平流层化学成分变化的模拟,也显著地提升了北极平流层温度和环流的模拟。本模型同化模拟的3~4月、预报预测的5~6月北极平流层温度和纬向风变化与Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications,Version 2(MERRA2)再分析资料结果具有很好的一致性,仅在北极平流层顶部,预报预测的温度和纬向风分别与再分析资料之间的均方根误差(RMSE)约为3 K和4 m s^(-1)。未进行同化的试验模拟的3~4月、预报预测的5~6月北极平流层的温度和纬向风与MERRA2再分析资料之间的RMSE在大部分区域都达到6 K及5 m s^(-1)以上。从全球范围来看,本模型对平流层中低层模拟性能改善最为显著,其预报预测结果与观测值之间的差异,比未进行同化试验的结果,减少了50%以上。
基金supported by the Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No.KZZDEW-04-05)supported by the Australia–China Joint Research Centre on River Basin Management
文摘Changes in rainfall extremes pose a serious and additional threat to water resources planning and management, natural and artificial oasis stability, and sustainable development in the fragile ecosystems of arid inland river basins. In this study, the trend and temporal variation of extreme precipitation are analyzed using daily precipitation datasets at 11 stations over the arid inland Heihe River basin in Northwest China from 1960 to 2011. Eight indices of extreme precipitation are studied. The results show statistically significant and large-magnitude increasing and decreasing trends for most indices, primarily in the Qilian Mountains and eastern Hexi Corridor. More frequent and intense rainfall extremes have occurred in the southern part of the desert area than in the northern portion. In general, the temporal variation in precipitation extremes has changed throughout the basin. Wet day precipitation and heavy precipitation days show statistically significant linear increasing trends and step changes in the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor. Consecutive dry days have decreased obviously in the region in most years after approximately the late 1980s, but meanwhile very long dry spells have increased, especially in the Hexi Corridor. The probability density function indicates that very long wet spells have increased in the Qilian Mountains. The East Asian summer monsoon index and western Pacific subtropical high intensity index possess strong and significant negative and positive correlations with rainfall extremes, respectively. Changes in land surface characteristics and the increase in water vapor in the wet season have also contributed to the changes in precipitation extremes over the river basin.
基金supported by the 973 Program (Grant No.2010CB950400)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41225018 and 41305036)
文摘The effects of E1Nifio Modoki events on global ozone concentrations are investigated from 1980 to 2010 E1 Nifio Modoki events cause a stronger Brewer-Dobson （BD） circulation which can transports more ozone-poor air from the troposphere to stratosphere, leading to a decrease of ozone inthe lower-middle stratosphere from 90~S to 90~N. These changes in ozone concentrations reduce stratospheric column ozone. The reduction in stratospheric column ozone during E1 Nifio Modoki events is more pronounced over the tropical eastern Pacific than over other tropical areas because transport of ozone-poor air from middle-high latitudes in both hemispheres to low latitudes is the strongest between 60°W and 120°W. Because of the decrease in stratospheric column ozone during E1 Nifio Modoki events more UV radiation reaches the tropical troposphere leading to significant increases in tropospheric column ozone An empirical orthogonal function （EOF） analysis of the time series from 1980 to 2010 of stratospheric and tropospheric ozone monthly anomalies reveals that： E1 Nifio Modoki events are associated with the primary EOF modes of both time series. We also found that E1 Nifio Modoki events can affect global ozone more significantly than canonical E1 Nifio events. These results imply that E1 Nifio Modoki is a key contributor to variations in global ozone from 1980 to 2010.
