川西松潘上窑沟古滑坡复活特征及危险性预测研究

随着近年来人类活动加剧和极端天气的频繁出现,古滑坡复活问题日益突出,严重威胁着工程设施和城镇安全。以青藏高原东缘松潘县上窑沟古滑坡为例,在剖析古滑坡复活特征的基础上,分析了不同重现期降雨条件下滑坡的破坏范围和失稳概率,并采用DAN^（3D）软件模拟研究了滑坡运动过程和堆积范围,开展了古滑坡复活的危险性预测评价。结果表明：（1）受坡脚浸润侵蚀和强降雨的影响,上窑沟古滑坡前缘局部H1已经复活,呈现出多级序、多期次活动的特点,目前地表宏观变形迹象清晰,存在进一步失稳可能;（2）H1在20 a一遇的10 d连阴雨条件下处于不稳定状态,失稳概率达99.12%,而后部的H2在100 a一遇10 d连阴雨条件下处于不稳定状态,失稳概率达96.36%,可能和前部H1发生连续失稳下滑;（3）仅前缘局部H1失稳时,滑体最远运移距离约350 m,堆积体前缘不会抵达居民区;（4）当后部H2和前部H1连续失稳时,滑体最远运移距离达550 m,沟口居民区的排导槽首端至国道G213间半径约150 m的扇形区遭受滑坡–碎屑流的危险性大。

多轴联动的风洞变角度机构同步协调控制

为解决风洞尾撑变角度机构运动过程中多轴之间的同步协调控制问题,本文提出了一种结合并行控制和交叉耦合控制的同步控制方法.首先,将并行控制应用于多轴联动控制中,根据前后侧滑轴定位时间一致以及速度变化时间一致的原则,开展了提高多轴同步性能的研究.然后,采用了基于同步误差传递函数的交叉耦合控制方法,对并行控制给定的运动参数进行修正补偿.最后,通过机构运动进行了实验验证,实验结果表明该控制方法可有效减小横向同步误差,提高同步性能,满足风洞试验控制要求.该方法也为类似机构的同步控制提供了参考.

川西松潘地区裂隙性黄土强度特性试验

节理裂隙破坏了黄土的结构完整性,影响其力学性质,一定程度上控制着黄土地区滑坡和崩塌等地质灾害的演化进程和破坏规模。为研究裂隙对黄土强度特性的影响,选取川西松潘地区黄土为研究对象,开展了不同裂隙面倾角、含水率和含砂量等条件下的三轴试验。研究结果表明:仅当黄土中的裂隙面倾角与理论破裂角相近时,剪切破裂面才会迁就已有裂隙面发展;裂隙面倾角大小对黄土强度影响明显,裂隙面倾角为0°时,土体抗剪强度最大,接近理论破裂角时最小;不同含水率和含砂量条件下,裂隙性黄土强度特性均存在倾角效应,但随着条件不同而有所变化;裂隙性黄土的黏聚力受含水量和含砂量变化影响较明显,内摩擦角受其影响相对较小。通过预设不同倾角裂隙面的黄土三轴压缩试验来分析裂隙性黄土强度特性的思路,同样适用于古滑坡滑带土强度特性研究,开展滑坡不同部位的滑带土切面三轴试验可以为深入分析古滑坡复活机制提供借鉴。

含砾滑带土复活启动强度研究

砾石在古滑坡滑带土中广泛存在,确定含砾滑带土的启动强度是古滑坡稳定性评价和灾害防范的关键。以2018年甘肃舟曲县江顶崖古滑坡复活事件为例,基于试验测试和反演分析方法,研究了含砾滑带土的复活启动强度。结果表明:(1)长距离剪切后,滑带土中的胶结作用已逐渐丧失,其残余抗剪强度主要由土颗粒之间的滑动摩擦阻力和咬合作用所导致,砾石含量较高时土颗粒之间的力较强,因而其残余强度也相对较大。剪切面摩擦系数与粗糙度呈正线性相关性,砾石改变了剪切面的粗糙度,使剪切面摩擦阻力增大,导致其残余强度增大。(2)含砾滑带土的残余内摩擦角同时受黏粒含量和砾石含量的控制,与黏土质滑带土主要受黏粒含量控制的机制具有明显差异,建议采用砾石含量与黏粒含量之比作为估算含砾滑带土残余内摩擦角的指标。(3)古滑坡复活启动强度一般大于残余强度但略小于恢复强度,复活启动前的滑带土强度已经由恢复强度向残余强度逐渐衰减,此时古滑坡整体上处于蠕滑状态,在外力作用下,滑带土强度易发生急剧衰减,从而诱发古滑坡加速滑动。

含砾滑带土残余强度与剪切面粗糙度的细观响应机制

含砾滑带土的力学性质与剪切面细观结构紧密相关,定量化表征剪切面的粗糙度对于揭示含砾滑带土残余强度变化的细观机制具有重要意义。基于反复直剪试验和高精度三维激光扫描技术,对含砾滑带土剪切面的粗糙度进行了定量刻画,并剖析了其与残余强度参数之间的关系,结果表明:滑带土剪切面摩擦系数与粗糙度呈较明显的相关性;砾石是滑带土残余强度变化的内在因素,垂向应力和水是残余强度变化的外部因素。含砾滑带土的残余强度由剪切面砾石的接触性质和剪切面的起伏程度共同决定:砾石含量决定了咬合摩擦接触面的数量,随含石量增大,剪切面中咬合摩擦接触面增加;砾石最大粒径控制了接触面积和夹角,粒径越大,咬合摩擦越大;垂向应力的压实作用和水的软化作用有助于咬合摩擦向滑动摩擦转化,减小滑带土的残余强度。

Landslide susceptibility mapping using an integrated model of information value method and logistic regression in the Bailongjiang watershed,Gansu Province,China

Bailongjiang watershed in southern Gansu province, China, is one of the most landslide-prone regions in China, characterized by very high frequency of landslide occurrence. In order to predict the landslide occurrence, a comprehensive map of landslide susceptibility is required which may be significantly helpful in reducing loss of property and human life. In this study, an integrated model of information value method and logistic regression is proposed by using their merits at maximum and overcoming their weaknesses, which may enhance precision and accuracy of landslide susceptibility assessment. A detailed and reliable landslide inventory with 1587 landslides was prepared and randomly divided into two groups,(i) training dataset and(ii) testing dataset. Eight distinct landslide conditioning factors including lithology, slope gradient, aspect, elevation, distance to drainages,distance to faults, distance to roads and vegetation coverage were selected for landslide susceptibility mapping. The produced landslide susceptibility maps were validated by the success rate and prediction rate curves. The validation results show that the success rate and the prediction rate of the integrated model are 81.7 % and 84.6 %, respectively, which indicate that the proposed integrated method is reliable to produce an accurate landslide susceptibility map and the results may be used for landslides management and mitigation.

Predicting landslide scenes under potential earthquake scenarios in the Xianshuihe fault zone, Southwest China

Earthquake-induced landslides can seriously aggravate the earthquake's destructive consequences and have caused widespread concern in recent decades. The Xianshuihe fault is a large active left-lateral strike-slip fault in the southeast margin of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, Southwest China, where the frequent strong earthquakes have brought abundant geo-hazards. This study focuses mainly on exploring and predicting the landslide scenes induced by the potential earthquakes. Firstly, the sophisticated Newmark model is improved through landslide cases induced by the Ms7.9 Luhuo earthquake in 1973 to adapt the field seismotectonics of the Xianshuihe fault zone. Then, it is used to predict the landslide scenes under one speculated potential earthquake scenario with the similar focal mechanism with the Luhuo earthquake. The preliminary results show that the slope displacement resulted from Newmark model can reflect spatial distribution characteristics ofearthquake-induced landslides. The predicted potential earthquake-induced landslide scenes present an obvious extending trend along the Xianshuihe fault. The landslide hazard is greater in the northeast regions than southwest regions of the Xianshuihe fault, where there are more complex topographic conditions. The study procedure will be a helpful demonstration for exploration and prediction of landslide scenes under potential earthquakes in the regions with high seismic activity.

Development characteristics and failure modes of reactivated ancient landslides in the Sichuan–Tibet transportation corridor,China

The risk of reactivated ancient landslides in the Sichuan–Tibet transportation corridor in China is significantly increasing,primarily driven by the intensification of engineering activities and the increased frequency of extreme weather events.This escalation has resulted in a considerable number of fatalities and extensive damage to critical engineering infrastructure.However,the factors contributing to the reactivation and modes of destruction of ancient landslides remain unknown.Therefore,it is imperative to systematically analyze the developmental characteristics and failure modes of reactivated ancient landslides to effectively mitigate disaster risks.Based on a combination of data collection,remote sensing interpretation,and field investigations,we delineated the developmental attributes of typical ancient landslides within the study area.These attributes encompass morphological and topographic aspects,material composition,and spatial structure of ancient landslides.Subsequently,we identified the key triggers for the reactivation of ancient landslides,including water infiltration,reservoir hydrodynamics,slope erosion,and excavation,by analyzing representative cases in the study area.Reactivation of ancient landslides is sometimes the result of the cumulative effects of multiple predisposing factors.Furthermore,our investigations revealed that the reactivation of these ancient landslides primarily led to local failures.However,over extended periods of dynamic action,the entire zone may experience gradual creep.We categorized the reactivation modes of ancient landslides into three distinct types based on the reactivation sequences:progressive retreat,backward thrusting,and forward pulling–backward thrusting.This study is of great significance for us to identify ancient landslides,deepen our understanding of the failure modes and risks of reactivated ancient landslides on the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,and formulate effective disaster prevention and mitigation measures.

Field investigations and numerical modeling of a giant landslide in the region of Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis:Jiaobunong landslide

Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis(EHS)is a tectonically active region that undergoes continuous geomorphic changes.Large landslides are predominant in this region.A giant landslide called Jiaobunong landslide on the northwestern flank of the EHS were studied and simulated to investigate the formation mechanism,evolutionary process,and failure mechanism of the landside,so that we could better understand the large complex ancient landslides in this region.Field investigation,geological background analyses,and numerical modeling were conducted to reveal the natural and seismic characteristics,as well as dynamic process of the landslide.The results show that the Jiaobunong landslide was the result of long-term geological and geomorphic evolution.Uplift,river incision,weathering,fault creep,glaciation,and earthquakes play key roles in the formation of landslides.Given the huge landslide volume,strong seismicity of the study area,proximity to an active fault,and the need for extra forces to induce landsliding,the Jiaobunong landslide was triggered by a paleo-earthquake.Using numerical simulation based on the discrete element method,the slope dynamic response of the earthquake as well as the mass movement and accumulation process was reproduced.Simulation results showed that the landslide movement experienced four stages:initiation phase(0-5 s),acceleration phase(5-35 s),deceleration phase(35-95 s),and the compaction and self-stabilization stage(after 95 s).The rock mass was disintegrated and experienced strong collisions during the movement.The dammed lake gradually disappeared because of long-term river incision by the overtopping river water.These processes play a vital role in the evolution of landforms in the region of EHS.