The inter-event time of terrorism attack events is investigated by empirical data and model analysis. Empirical evidence shows that it follows a scale-free property. In order to understand the dynamic mechanism of suc...The inter-event time of terrorism attack events is investigated by empirical data and model analysis. Empirical evidence shows that it follows a scale-free property. In order to understand the dynamic mechanism of such a statistical feature, an opinion dynamic model with a memory effect is proposed on a two-dimensional lattice network. The model mainly highlights the role of individual social conformity and self-affirmation psychology. An attack event occurs when the order parameter indicating the strength of public opposition opinion is smaller than a critical value. Ultimately, the model can reproduce the same statistical property as the empirical data and gives a good understanding for the possible dynamic mechanism of terrorism attacks.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos 60744003, 10975126 and 70871082, the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China under Grant No 20060358065, and the National Basic Research Program of China under Grant No 2006CB705500.
文摘The inter-event time of terrorism attack events is investigated by empirical data and model analysis. Empirical evidence shows that it follows a scale-free property. In order to understand the dynamic mechanism of such a statistical feature, an opinion dynamic model with a memory effect is proposed on a two-dimensional lattice network. The model mainly highlights the role of individual social conformity and self-affirmation psychology. An attack event occurs when the order parameter indicating the strength of public opposition opinion is smaller than a critical value. Ultimately, the model can reproduce the same statistical property as the empirical data and gives a good understanding for the possible dynamic mechanism of terrorism attacks.
