Accurate vehicle dynamic information plays an important role in vehicle driving safety.However,due to the characteristics of high mobility and multiple controllable degrees of freedom of drive-by-wire chassis vehicles...Accurate vehicle dynamic information plays an important role in vehicle driving safety.However,due to the characteristics of high mobility and multiple controllable degrees of freedom of drive-by-wire chassis vehicles,the current mature application of traditional vehicle state estimation algorithms can not meet the requirements of drive-by-wire chassis vehicle state estimation.This paper proposes a state estimation method for drive-by-wire chassis vehicle based on the dual unscented particle filter algorithm,which make full use of the known advantages of the four-wheel drive torque and steer angle parameters of the drive-by-wire chassis vehicle.In the dual unscented particle filter algorithm,two unscented particle filter transfer information to each other,observe the vehicle state information and the tire force parameter information of the four wheels respectively,which reduce the influence of parameter uncertainty and model parameter changes on the estimation accuracy during driving.The performance with the dual unscented particle filter algorithm,which is analyzed in terms of the time-average square error,is superior of the unscented Kalman filter algorithm.The effectiveness of the algorithm is further verified by driving simulator test.In this paper,a vehicle state estimator based on dual unscented particle filter algorithm was proposed for the first time to improve the estimation accuracy of vehicle parameters and states.展开更多
The representation of the Arctic stratospheric circulation and the quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)during the period 1981–2019 in a 40-yr Chinese global reanalysis dataset(CRA-40)is evaluated by comparing two widely u...The representation of the Arctic stratospheric circulation and the quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)during the period 1981–2019 in a 40-yr Chinese global reanalysis dataset(CRA-40)is evaluated by comparing two widely used reanalysis datasets,ERA-5 and MERRA-2.CRA-40 demonstrates a comparable performance with ERA-5 and MERRA-2 in characterizing the winter and spring circulation in the lower and middle Arctic stratosphere.Specifically,differences in the climatological polar-mean temperature and polar night jet among the three reanalyses are within±0.5 K and±0.5 m s^(–1),respectively.The onset dates of the stratospheric sudden warming and stratospheric final warming events at 10 hPa in CRA-40,together with the dynamics and circulation anomalies during the onset process of warming events,are nearly identical to the other two reanalyses with slight differences.By contrast,the CRA-40 dataset demonstrates a deteriorated performance in describing the QBO below 10 hPa compared to the other two reanalysis products,manifested by the larger easterly biases of the QBO index,the remarkably weaker amplitude of the QBO,and the weaker wavelet power of the QBO period.Such pronounced biases are mainly concentrated in the period 1981–98 and largely reduced by at least 39%in 1999–2019.Thus,particular caution is needed in studying the QBO based on CRA-40.All three reanalyses exhibit greater disagreement in the upper stratosphere compared to the lower and middle stratosphere for both the polar region and the tropics.展开更多
Vehicle–bicycle conflict incurs a higher risk of traffic accidents,particularly as it frequently takes place at intersections.Mastering the traffic characteristics of vehicle–bicycle conflict and optimizing the desi...Vehicle–bicycle conflict incurs a higher risk of traffic accidents,particularly as it frequently takes place at intersections.Mastering the traffic characteristics of vehicle–bicycle conflict and optimizing the design of intersections can effectively reduce such conflict.In this paper,the conflict between right-turning motor vehicles and straight-riding bicycles was taken as the research object,and T-Analyst video recognition technology was used to obtain data on riding(driving)behavior and vehicle–bicycle conflict at seven intersections in Changsha,China.Herein,eight typical traffic characteristics of vehicle–bicycle conflict are summarized,the causes of vehicle–bicycle conflict are analyzed using 18 factors in three dimensions,the internal relationship between intersection design factors and traffic conflicts is explored,and the guiding of design optimization based on the width of bicycle lanes and the soft separation between vehicles and bicycles is discussed.The results showed that colored paved bicycle lanes were better,performing better at a width of 2.5 m compared to 1.5 m.However,the colored pavement was not suitable for the entire road and had to be set at the position,at which the trajectories of a bicycle and motor vehicle overlapped.Thus,a 2.5-m-wide bicycle lane provides good safety.However,there are still defects in the existing safety indicators,so it is necessary to develop new indicators to reflect real vehicle–bicycle conflict situations more comprehensively.展开更多
To study the effects of estrogen on the structure of the intestinal mucosal barrier, 18 healthy female Wistar Rats underwent estrus synchronization. In diestrus, they were divided into three groups: one sham operated...To study the effects of estrogen on the structure of the intestinal mucosal barrier, 18 healthy female Wistar Rats underwent estrus synchronization. In diestrus, they were divided into three groups: one sham operated control group (SHAM) ; one ovariec- tomized group (OVX) ; and one ovariectomized plus estradiol benzoate group ( OVX + E2 ). Intestinal mu- cosal epithelial cells, intraepithelial lymphocytes ([EL), and goblet cells (GCs) were observed by light microscope. The results showed that in the OVX group, the intestinal mucosa damaged obviously, the villus atrophied, the ratio of villus height to crypt depth reduced, and the number of IELs and GCs re- duced. The indicators of OVX + Ez group were signif- icantly higher than OVX group, but some indicators were lower than SHAM. These indicated that the function of intestinal mucosal barrier was greatly dam- aged in ovariectomied rat, and proper dosage of estra- diol benzoate Would improve the function of small in- testinal mucosal barrier in ovariectomied rat to some degree.展开更多
The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of estradiol (E) and progesterone (P) on mastocyte distribution in the uterus of ovari- ectomized rats. Thirty-five adult female rats were divided randomly ...The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of estradiol (E) and progesterone (P) on mastocyte distribution in the uterus of ovari- ectomized rats. Thirty-five adult female rats were divided randomly into seven groups:one sham operated control group ( SHAM ) ; one ovariectomized group (OVX) ;three ovariectomized plus E treatment grouPs (OVX +E 20,100,or 500 μg/kg body weight · d) ; and two ovariectomized plus P groups ( OVX + P 2 or 10 mg/kg body weight · d). Seven days after treatment, the contents of estradiol and progesterone in serum were detected by radioimmunoassay, and mastocytes in the uterus were stained by toluidine blue staining. Results were as following: (1) Compared to ovariectomized rat, the concent ration of estradiol in serum increased by 97. 13 % in OVX + E 20 (P 〈 0.05),204. 84 % in OVX+E 100 (P〈0.05),and 936.45 % in OVX + E500 group (P〈0.05);the progesterone concent ration increased by 77.25 % in OVX +P 2 (P 〈0.05) and 235.25 %in OVX +P 10 group ( P 〈 0.05 ). (2) Compared to ovariectomized rat, the number of mast cells in uteri decreased by 32.65% in OVX +E 20,64.50 % in OVX +E 100 (P〈0.05),74.49 % in OVX+E500 (P〈0.05) and 70.67 % in OVX +P 10 groups (P〈0.05). However, the number of mast cells increased by 66.73% in OVX + P 2 group ( P 〈 0.05 ) compared with OVX. The trend of mast cells number in the rat uterus was decreased gradually with the increase of estrogen or progesterone concent ration. The number of mast cells in ovariectomized rat uterus was affected by estrogen or progesterone. These results demonstrated that estrogen or progesterone directly affected the number of mast cells in the uterus of rat.展开更多
Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease caused by the SFTS virus (SFTSV). Predicting the incidence of this disease in advance is crucial for policymakers to develop prevent...Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease caused by the SFTS virus (SFTSV). Predicting the incidence of this disease in advance is crucial for policymakers to develop prevention and control strategies. In this study, we utilized historical incidence data of SFTS (2013–2020) in Shandong Province, China to establish three univariate prediction models based on two time-series forecasting algorithms Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Prophet, as well as a special type of recurrent neural network Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm. We then evaluated and compared the performance of these models. All three models demonstrated good predictive capabilities for SFTS cases, with the predicted results closely aligning with the actual cases. Among the models, the LSTM model exhibited the best fitting and prediction performance. It achieved the lowest values for mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The number of SFTS cases in the subsequent 5 years in this area were also generated using this model. The LSTM model, being simple and practical, provides valuable information and data for assessing the potential risk of SFTS in advance. This information is crucial for the development of early warning systems and the formulation of effective prevention and control measures for SFTS.展开更多
Co_(3)O_(4)spinel oxides have manifested promising activity toward the oxygen evolution reaction(OER)through effective modifications.For them to become top electrocatalysts,however,accurate accounts of the catalytic k...Co_(3)O_(4)spinel oxides have manifested promising activity toward the oxygen evolution reaction(OER)through effective modifications.For them to become top electrocatalysts,however,accurate accounts of the catalytic kinetics are essential to gain a deep understanding of the activity promotion mechanisms.Herein,we use a newly proposed kinetic model based on energetic span as the rate-determining term for the electrocatalytic reaction to throw light on the promotion mechanism of Co_(3)O_(4)interfaced with nickel hydroxides(NiO_(x)H_(y))for the OER.We find that depending on the electrode potential,the OER kinetics at the designed interface between Co_(3)O_(4)and NiO_(x)H_(y)are boosted in entirely different ways.As a result,the OER can occur at a lower onset potential as well as a low Tafel slope.This work emphasizes the benefit of using rational theoretical models for electrocatalyst design.展开更多
Circulating tumor cells(CTCs)have tremendous potential to indicate disease progression and monitor therapeutic response using minimally invasive approaches.Considering the limitations of affinity strategies based on t...Circulating tumor cells(CTCs)have tremendous potential to indicate disease progression and monitor therapeutic response using minimally invasive approaches.Considering the limitations of affinity strategies based on their cost,effectiveness,and simplicity,size-based enrichment methods that involve low-cost,label-free,and relatively simple protocols have been further promoted.Nevertheless,the key challenges of these methods are clogging issues and cell aggregation,which reduce the recovery rates and purity.Inspired by the natural phenomenon that the airflow around a windmill is disturbed,in this study,a windmill-like hole array on the SU-8 membrane was designed to perturb the fluid such that cells in a fluid would be able to self-mix and that the pressure acting on cells or the membrane would be dispersed to allow a greater velocity.In addition,based on the advantages of fluid coatings,a lipid coating was used to modify the membrane surface to prevent cell aggregation and clogging of the holes.Under the optimal conditions,recovery rates of 93%and 90%were found for A549 and HeLa cells in a clinical simulation test of our platform with a CTC concentration of 20-100 cells per milliliter of blood.The white blood cell(WBC)depletion rate was 98.7%(n=15),and the CTC detection limit was less than 10 cells per milliliter of blood(n=6).Moreover,compared with conventional membrane filtration,the advantages of the proposed device for the rapid(2 mL/min)and efficient enrichment of CTCs without clogging were shown both experimentally and theoretically.Due to its advantages in the efficient,rapid,uniform,and clog-free enrichment of CTCs,our platform offers great potential for metastatic detection and therapy analyses.展开更多
Introduction:Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS)is an emerging infectious disease caused by the SFTS virus,which has a high mortality rate.Predicting the number of SFTS cases is essential for early outbr...Introduction:Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS)is an emerging infectious disease caused by the SFTS virus,which has a high mortality rate.Predicting the number of SFTS cases is essential for early outbreak warning and can offer valuable insights for establishing prevention and control measures.Methods:In this study,data on monthly SFTS cases in Hubei Province,China,from 2013 to 2020 were collected.Various time series models based on seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average(SARIMA),Prophet,eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost),and long short-term memory(LSTM)were developed using these historical data to predict SFTS cases.The established models were evaluated and compared using mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean squared error(RMSE).Results:Four models were developed and performed well in predicting the trend of SFTS cases.The XGBoost model outperformed the others,yielding the closest fit to the actual case numbers and exhibiting the smallest MAE(2.54)and RMSE(2.89)in capturing the seasonal trend and predicting the monthly number of SFTS cases in Hubei Province.Conclusion:The developed XGBoost model represents a promising and valuable tool for SFTS prediction and early warning in Hubei Province,China.展开更多
基金Supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2021YFB2500703)Science and Technology Department Program of Jilin Province of China(Grant No.20230101121JC).
文摘Accurate vehicle dynamic information plays an important role in vehicle driving safety.However,due to the characteristics of high mobility and multiple controllable degrees of freedom of drive-by-wire chassis vehicles,the current mature application of traditional vehicle state estimation algorithms can not meet the requirements of drive-by-wire chassis vehicle state estimation.This paper proposes a state estimation method for drive-by-wire chassis vehicle based on the dual unscented particle filter algorithm,which make full use of the known advantages of the four-wheel drive torque and steer angle parameters of the drive-by-wire chassis vehicle.In the dual unscented particle filter algorithm,two unscented particle filter transfer information to each other,observe the vehicle state information and the tire force parameter information of the four wheels respectively,which reduce the influence of parameter uncertainty and model parameter changes on the estimation accuracy during driving.The performance with the dual unscented particle filter algorithm,which is analyzed in terms of the time-average square error,is superior of the unscented Kalman filter algorithm.The effectiveness of the algorithm is further verified by driving simulator test.In this paper,a vehicle state estimator based on dual unscented particle filter algorithm was proposed for the first time to improve the estimation accuracy of vehicle parameters and states.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41975048, 42030605, and 42175069)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (Grant No.BK20191404)
文摘The representation of the Arctic stratospheric circulation and the quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)during the period 1981–2019 in a 40-yr Chinese global reanalysis dataset(CRA-40)is evaluated by comparing two widely used reanalysis datasets,ERA-5 and MERRA-2.CRA-40 demonstrates a comparable performance with ERA-5 and MERRA-2 in characterizing the winter and spring circulation in the lower and middle Arctic stratosphere.Specifically,differences in the climatological polar-mean temperature and polar night jet among the three reanalyses are within±0.5 K and±0.5 m s^(–1),respectively.The onset dates of the stratospheric sudden warming and stratospheric final warming events at 10 hPa in CRA-40,together with the dynamics and circulation anomalies during the onset process of warming events,are nearly identical to the other two reanalyses with slight differences.By contrast,the CRA-40 dataset demonstrates a deteriorated performance in describing the QBO below 10 hPa compared to the other two reanalysis products,manifested by the larger easterly biases of the QBO index,the remarkably weaker amplitude of the QBO,and the weaker wavelet power of the QBO period.Such pronounced biases are mainly concentrated in the period 1981–98 and largely reduced by at least 39%in 1999–2019.Thus,particular caution is needed in studying the QBO based on CRA-40.All three reanalyses exhibit greater disagreement in the upper stratosphere compared to the lower and middle stratosphere for both the polar region and the tropics.
基金This work was supported in part by the Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China Project of Humanities and Social Sciences under Grant No.19YJCZH208,author X.X,http://www.moe.gov.cn/in part by the Philosophy and Social Science Foundation Project of Hunan Province under Grant No.15YBA406,author X.X,http://www.hnsk.gov.cn/+3 种基金in part by the Social Science Evaluation Committee Project of Hunan Province under Grant No.XSP18YBZ125,author X.X,http://www.hnsk.gov.cn/in part by the Social Sciences Federation Think Tank Project of Hunan Province under Grant No.ZK2019025,author X.X,http://www.hnsk.gov.cn/in part by the Education Bureau Research Foundation Project of Hunan Province under Grant No.20A531,author X.X,http://jyt.hunan.gov.cn/in part by the Science and Technology Project of Changsha City,under Grant No.kq2004092,author X.X,http://kjj.changsha.gov.cn/.
文摘Vehicle–bicycle conflict incurs a higher risk of traffic accidents,particularly as it frequently takes place at intersections.Mastering the traffic characteristics of vehicle–bicycle conflict and optimizing the design of intersections can effectively reduce such conflict.In this paper,the conflict between right-turning motor vehicles and straight-riding bicycles was taken as the research object,and T-Analyst video recognition technology was used to obtain data on riding(driving)behavior and vehicle–bicycle conflict at seven intersections in Changsha,China.Herein,eight typical traffic characteristics of vehicle–bicycle conflict are summarized,the causes of vehicle–bicycle conflict are analyzed using 18 factors in three dimensions,the internal relationship between intersection design factors and traffic conflicts is explored,and the guiding of design optimization based on the width of bicycle lanes and the soft separation between vehicles and bicycles is discussed.The results showed that colored paved bicycle lanes were better,performing better at a width of 2.5 m compared to 1.5 m.However,the colored pavement was not suitable for the entire road and had to be set at the position,at which the trajectories of a bicycle and motor vehicle overlapped.Thus,a 2.5-m-wide bicycle lane provides good safety.However,there are still defects in the existing safety indicators,so it is necessary to develop new indicators to reflect real vehicle–bicycle conflict situations more comprehensively.
文摘To study the effects of estrogen on the structure of the intestinal mucosal barrier, 18 healthy female Wistar Rats underwent estrus synchronization. In diestrus, they were divided into three groups: one sham operated control group (SHAM) ; one ovariec- tomized group (OVX) ; and one ovariectomized plus estradiol benzoate group ( OVX + E2 ). Intestinal mu- cosal epithelial cells, intraepithelial lymphocytes ([EL), and goblet cells (GCs) were observed by light microscope. The results showed that in the OVX group, the intestinal mucosa damaged obviously, the villus atrophied, the ratio of villus height to crypt depth reduced, and the number of IELs and GCs re- duced. The indicators of OVX + Ez group were signif- icantly higher than OVX group, but some indicators were lower than SHAM. These indicated that the function of intestinal mucosal barrier was greatly dam- aged in ovariectomied rat, and proper dosage of estra- diol benzoate Would improve the function of small in- testinal mucosal barrier in ovariectomied rat to some degree.
文摘The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of estradiol (E) and progesterone (P) on mastocyte distribution in the uterus of ovari- ectomized rats. Thirty-five adult female rats were divided randomly into seven groups:one sham operated control group ( SHAM ) ; one ovariectomized group (OVX) ;three ovariectomized plus E treatment grouPs (OVX +E 20,100,or 500 μg/kg body weight · d) ; and two ovariectomized plus P groups ( OVX + P 2 or 10 mg/kg body weight · d). Seven days after treatment, the contents of estradiol and progesterone in serum were detected by radioimmunoassay, and mastocytes in the uterus were stained by toluidine blue staining. Results were as following: (1) Compared to ovariectomized rat, the concent ration of estradiol in serum increased by 97. 13 % in OVX + E 20 (P 〈 0.05),204. 84 % in OVX+E 100 (P〈0.05),and 936.45 % in OVX + E500 group (P〈0.05);the progesterone concent ration increased by 77.25 % in OVX +P 2 (P 〈0.05) and 235.25 %in OVX +P 10 group ( P 〈 0.05 ). (2) Compared to ovariectomized rat, the number of mast cells in uteri decreased by 32.65% in OVX +E 20,64.50 % in OVX +E 100 (P〈0.05),74.49 % in OVX+E500 (P〈0.05) and 70.67 % in OVX +P 10 groups (P〈0.05). However, the number of mast cells increased by 66.73% in OVX + P 2 group ( P 〈 0.05 ) compared with OVX. The trend of mast cells number in the rat uterus was decreased gradually with the increase of estrogen or progesterone concent ration. The number of mast cells in ovariectomized rat uterus was affected by estrogen or progesterone. These results demonstrated that estrogen or progesterone directly affected the number of mast cells in the uterus of rat.
基金funded by Medical Science and Technology Projects,China(JK2023GK002,JK2023GK003,and JK2023GK004).
文摘Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is an emerging infectious disease caused by the SFTS virus (SFTSV). Predicting the incidence of this disease in advance is crucial for policymakers to develop prevention and control strategies. In this study, we utilized historical incidence data of SFTS (2013–2020) in Shandong Province, China to establish three univariate prediction models based on two time-series forecasting algorithms Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Prophet, as well as a special type of recurrent neural network Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm. We then evaluated and compared the performance of these models. All three models demonstrated good predictive capabilities for SFTS cases, with the predicted results closely aligning with the actual cases. Among the models, the LSTM model exhibited the best fitting and prediction performance. It achieved the lowest values for mean absolute error (MAE), mean square error (MSE), and root mean square error (RMSE). The number of SFTS cases in the subsequent 5 years in this area were also generated using this model. The LSTM model, being simple and practical, provides valuable information and data for assessing the potential risk of SFTS in advance. This information is crucial for the development of early warning systems and the formulation of effective prevention and control measures for SFTS.
基金This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 21832004)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2042021kf1047)+1 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project(2021M692470)China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents(Grant BX20200253).The theoretical calculations have been done on the supercomputing system in the Supercomputing Center of Wuhan University.
文摘Co_(3)O_(4)spinel oxides have manifested promising activity toward the oxygen evolution reaction(OER)through effective modifications.For them to become top electrocatalysts,however,accurate accounts of the catalytic kinetics are essential to gain a deep understanding of the activity promotion mechanisms.Herein,we use a newly proposed kinetic model based on energetic span as the rate-determining term for the electrocatalytic reaction to throw light on the promotion mechanism of Co_(3)O_(4)interfaced with nickel hydroxides(NiO_(x)H_(y))for the OER.We find that depending on the electrode potential,the OER kinetics at the designed interface between Co_(3)O_(4)and NiO_(x)H_(y)are boosted in entirely different ways.As a result,the OER can occur at a lower onset potential as well as a low Tafel slope.This work emphasizes the benefit of using rational theoretical models for electrocatalyst design.
基金This work was supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFC2500401)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61874133,No.61901469,No.22005331)+4 种基金the Key Research and Development Program of Jiangsu Province(No.BE2018080,No.BE2019684,No.BE2020768)the Jihua Laboratory Foundation(No.X190181TD190)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of CAS(No.2019322,No.2018360,No.Y201856)the Instrument Developing Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.YJKYYQ20190057,No.YJKYYQ20200046,No.ZDKYYQ20210004)the Science and Technology Development Program of Suzhou(No.SYG201907).
文摘Circulating tumor cells(CTCs)have tremendous potential to indicate disease progression and monitor therapeutic response using minimally invasive approaches.Considering the limitations of affinity strategies based on their cost,effectiveness,and simplicity,size-based enrichment methods that involve low-cost,label-free,and relatively simple protocols have been further promoted.Nevertheless,the key challenges of these methods are clogging issues and cell aggregation,which reduce the recovery rates and purity.Inspired by the natural phenomenon that the airflow around a windmill is disturbed,in this study,a windmill-like hole array on the SU-8 membrane was designed to perturb the fluid such that cells in a fluid would be able to self-mix and that the pressure acting on cells or the membrane would be dispersed to allow a greater velocity.In addition,based on the advantages of fluid coatings,a lipid coating was used to modify the membrane surface to prevent cell aggregation and clogging of the holes.Under the optimal conditions,recovery rates of 93%and 90%were found for A549 and HeLa cells in a clinical simulation test of our platform with a CTC concentration of 20-100 cells per milliliter of blood.The white blood cell(WBC)depletion rate was 98.7%(n=15),and the CTC detection limit was less than 10 cells per milliliter of blood(n=6).Moreover,compared with conventional membrane filtration,the advantages of the proposed device for the rapid(2 mL/min)and efficient enrichment of CTCs without clogging were shown both experimentally and theoretically.Due to its advantages in the efficient,rapid,uniform,and clog-free enrichment of CTCs,our platform offers great potential for metastatic detection and therapy analyses.
基金Supported by Medical Science and Technology Projects(JK2023002)National Natural Science Foundation of China(82273691)Open Research Fund Program of the State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity(No.SKLPBS2137).
文摘Introduction:Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS)is an emerging infectious disease caused by the SFTS virus,which has a high mortality rate.Predicting the number of SFTS cases is essential for early outbreak warning and can offer valuable insights for establishing prevention and control measures.Methods:In this study,data on monthly SFTS cases in Hubei Province,China,from 2013 to 2020 were collected.Various time series models based on seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average(SARIMA),Prophet,eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost),and long short-term memory(LSTM)were developed using these historical data to predict SFTS cases.The established models were evaluated and compared using mean absolute error(MAE)and root mean squared error(RMSE).Results:Four models were developed and performed well in predicting the trend of SFTS cases.The XGBoost model outperformed the others,yielding the closest fit to the actual case numbers and exhibiting the smallest MAE(2.54)and RMSE(2.89)in capturing the seasonal trend and predicting the monthly number of SFTS cases in Hubei Province.Conclusion:The developed XGBoost model represents a promising and valuable tool for SFTS prediction and early warning in Hubei Province,China.