Since the inaugural international collaboration under the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP)in 2007,numerous forecast models have been developed and operated for earthquake...Since the inaugural international collaboration under the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP)in 2007,numerous forecast models have been developed and operated for earthquake forecasting experiments across CSEP testing centers(Schorlemmer et al.,2018).Over more than a decade,efforts to compare forecasts with observed earthquakes using numerous statistical test methods and insights into earthquake predictability,which have become a highlight of the CSEP platform.展开更多
The 2022 M_(S)6.8 Luding earthquake is the strongest earthquake in Sichuan Province, Western China, since the 2017 M_(S)7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake. It occurred on the Moxi fault in the southeastern segment of the Xians...The 2022 M_(S)6.8 Luding earthquake is the strongest earthquake in Sichuan Province, Western China, since the 2017 M_(S)7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake. It occurred on the Moxi fault in the southeastern segment of the Xianshuihe fault, a tectonically active and mountainous region with severe secondary earthquake disasters. To better understand the seismogenic mechanism and provide scientific support for future hazard mitigation, we summarize the preliminary results of the Luding earthquake, including seismotectonic background, seismicity and mainshock source characteristics and aftershock properties, and direct and secondary damage associated with the mainshock.The peak ground displacements in the NS and EW directions observed by the nearest GNSS station SCCM are ~35 mm and ~55 mm, respectively, resulting in the maximum coseismic dislocation of 20 mm along the NWW direction, which is consistent with the sinistral slip on the Xianshuihe fault. Back-projection of teleseismic P waves suggest that the mainshock rupture propagated toward south-southeast. The seismic intensity of the mainshock estimated from the back-projection results indicates a Mercalli scale of Ⅷ or above near the ruptured area,consistent with the results from instrumental measurements and field surveys. Numerous aftershocks were reported, with the largest being M_(S)4.5. Aftershock locations(up to September 18, 2022) exhibit 3 clusters spanning an area of 100 km long and 30 km wide. The magnitude and rate of aftershocks decreased as expected, and the depths became shallower with time. The mainshock and two aftershocks show left-lateral strike-slip focal mechanisms. For the aftershock sequence, the b-value from the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relationship, h-value, and p-value for Omori’s law for aftershock decay are 0.81, 1.4, and 1.21, respectively, indicating that this is a typical mainshock-aftershock sequence. The low b-value implies high background stress in the hypocenter region. Analysis from remote sensing satellite images and UAV data shows that the distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides was consistent with the aftershock area. Numerous small-size landslides with limited volumes were revealed, which damaged or buried the roads and severely hindered the rescue process.展开更多
基金granted by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42004038)Earthquake Tracking Orientation Tasks of CEA(Grant No.2024020104)+1 种基金the Special Fund of IEFCEA(Grant No.CEAIEF2022030206)the China Scholarship Council(CSC)exchange program(Grant No.202204190019)。
文摘Since the inaugural international collaboration under the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(CSEP)in 2007,numerous forecast models have been developed and operated for earthquake forecasting experiments across CSEP testing centers(Schorlemmer et al.,2018).Over more than a decade,efforts to compare forecasts with observed earthquakes using numerous statistical test methods and insights into earthquake predictability,which have become a highlight of the CSEP platform.
基金the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2021YFC3000702-05)the Natural Science Foundation of China(41922025,41874062 and 42072248).
文摘The 2022 M_(S)6.8 Luding earthquake is the strongest earthquake in Sichuan Province, Western China, since the 2017 M_(S)7.0 Jiuzhaigou earthquake. It occurred on the Moxi fault in the southeastern segment of the Xianshuihe fault, a tectonically active and mountainous region with severe secondary earthquake disasters. To better understand the seismogenic mechanism and provide scientific support for future hazard mitigation, we summarize the preliminary results of the Luding earthquake, including seismotectonic background, seismicity and mainshock source characteristics and aftershock properties, and direct and secondary damage associated with the mainshock.The peak ground displacements in the NS and EW directions observed by the nearest GNSS station SCCM are ~35 mm and ~55 mm, respectively, resulting in the maximum coseismic dislocation of 20 mm along the NWW direction, which is consistent with the sinistral slip on the Xianshuihe fault. Back-projection of teleseismic P waves suggest that the mainshock rupture propagated toward south-southeast. The seismic intensity of the mainshock estimated from the back-projection results indicates a Mercalli scale of Ⅷ or above near the ruptured area,consistent with the results from instrumental measurements and field surveys. Numerous aftershocks were reported, with the largest being M_(S)4.5. Aftershock locations(up to September 18, 2022) exhibit 3 clusters spanning an area of 100 km long and 30 km wide. The magnitude and rate of aftershocks decreased as expected, and the depths became shallower with time. The mainshock and two aftershocks show left-lateral strike-slip focal mechanisms. For the aftershock sequence, the b-value from the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relationship, h-value, and p-value for Omori’s law for aftershock decay are 0.81, 1.4, and 1.21, respectively, indicating that this is a typical mainshock-aftershock sequence. The low b-value implies high background stress in the hypocenter region. Analysis from remote sensing satellite images and UAV data shows that the distribution of earthquake-triggered landslides was consistent with the aftershock area. Numerous small-size landslides with limited volumes were revealed, which damaged or buried the roads and severely hindered the rescue process.
