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用近地层温差因子改进广东沿海海雾区域预报 被引量:5
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作者 黄辉军 黄健 +2 位作者 刘春霞 毛伟康 毕雪岩 《热带气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2013年第6期907-914,共8页
利用2000—2011年的NCEP 1°×1°的再分析资料和2010—2011年的台站海雾观测资料,分析了近地层温差因子(T1 000 hPa-T2 m)与海雾发生的关系;尝试将近地层温差因子作为GRAPES模式的预报变量因子,改进广东沿海海雾区域预报。... 利用2000—2011年的NCEP 1°×1°的再分析资料和2010—2011年的台站海雾观测资料,分析了近地层温差因子(T1 000 hPa-T2 m)与海雾发生的关系;尝试将近地层温差因子作为GRAPES模式的预报变量因子,改进广东沿海海雾区域预报。(1)近地层温差因子与海雾发生有较明确的对应关系:当台站出现海雾时,近地层温差一般处于某一时间段的高值区,近地层温差负值明显减小或转为正值。这是近地层暖湿空气平流逐渐加强的结果,存在海雾发生发展的可能。(2)广东沿海地区暖湿平流的输送具有阶段性和跳跃性,而且是不断增强的;同时,暖湿平流的向北推进与中国沿海海雾自南向北推进的演变过程相一致。(3)GRAPES模式能较好地模拟和实现近地层温差因子,引入该预报变量因子后,海雾区域预报的准确率、Ts和Hss评分都有明显的提高。 展开更多
关键词 天气预报 海雾区域预报 广东沿海 GRAPES模式 近地层温差因子
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A CASE STUDY OF NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF SEA FOG ON THE SOUTHERN CHINA COAST 被引量:3
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作者 黄辉军 詹国伟 +2 位作者 刘春霞 涂静 毛伟康 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2016年第4期497-507,共11页
This study uses numerical simulations to examine a case of sea fog that was observed from 20 to 22 March2011 on the southern China coast. The observation dataset includes observatory data, cloud-top temperature from M... This study uses numerical simulations to examine a case of sea fog that was observed from 20 to 22 March2011 on the southern China coast. The observation dataset includes observatory data, cloud-top temperature from MODIS, GPS sonde, and data from the Integrated Observation Platform for Marine Meteorology(IOPMM). The simulations are based on the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model with four distinct parameter settings.Both the observations and simulations focus on the characteristics of the fog extent, boundary layer structure, and meteorological elements near the air-sea interface. Our main results are as follows:(1) The extent of mesoscale sea fog can be well simulated when the sea surface temperature has at least 0.5 ×0.5 horizontal resolution.(2) To accurately model the vertical structure of the sea fog, particularly the surface-based inversion, vertical levels must be added in the boundary layer.(3) When these model conditions are met, the simulations faithfully reproduce the measured downward shortwave radiation, downward longwave radiation, and surface sensible heat flux during the sea fog period. 展开更多
关键词 marine METEOROLOGY sea FOG numerical simulation southern China COAST SCOPE boundary layercharacteristics
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IMPROVEMENT OF REGIONAL PREDICTION OF SEA FOG ON GUANGDONG COASTLAND USING THE FACTOR OF TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE IN THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER 被引量:1
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作者 黄辉军 黄健 +2 位作者 刘春霞 毛伟康 毕雪岩 《Journal of Tropical Meteorology》 SCIE 2016年第1期66-73,共8页
The relationship between the factor of temperature difference of the near-surface layer(T_(1000 hPa)-T_(2m))and sea fog is analyzed using the NCEP reanalysis with a horizontal resolution of l°xl°(2000 to 201... The relationship between the factor of temperature difference of the near-surface layer(T_(1000 hPa)-T_(2m))and sea fog is analyzed using the NCEP reanalysis with a horizontal resolution of l°xl°(2000 to 2011) and the station observations(2010 to 2011).The element is treated as the prediction variable factor in the GRAPES model and used to improve the regional prediction of sea fog on Guangdong coastland.(1) The relationship between this factor and the occurrence of sea fog is explicit:When the sea fog happens,the value of this factor is always large in some specific periods,and the negative value of this factor decreases significantly or turns positive,suggesting the enhancement of warm and moist advection of air flow near the surface,which favors the development of sea fog.(2) The transportation of warm and moist advection over Guangdong coastland is featured by some stages and the jumping among these states.It also gets stronger over time.Meanwhile,the northward propagation of warm and moist advection is quite consistent with the northward advancing of sea fog from south to north along the coastland of China.(3) The GRAPES model can well simulate and realize the factor of near-surface temperature difference.Besides,the accuracy of regional prediction of marine fog,the relevant threat score and Heidke skill score are all improved when the factor is involved. 展开更多
关键词 weather prediction regional prediction of marine fog Guangdong coastland GRAPES model factor of near-surface temperature difference
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