在国内外研究的基础上,对印太暖池区的沃克环流和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)、热带辐合带(ITCZ)等低纬过程的空间分布和随时间的变化规律及其研究方法进行初步归纳,并指出研究中存在的问题。本文论述了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动变率在全新世早期...在国内外研究的基础上,对印太暖池区的沃克环流和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)、热带辐合带(ITCZ)等低纬过程的空间分布和随时间的变化规律及其研究方法进行初步归纳,并指出研究中存在的问题。本文论述了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动变率在全新世早期及中世纪气候异常期(1 000~700 a BP)的晚期逐渐增强,介绍了热带辐合带在BA暖期(B?llingAller?d Warm Period)和前北方期(pre-Boreal,10.3~9.5 ka BP)的北移,以及在新仙女木事件(Younger Dryas Event,12.5~11.5 ka BP)和北大西洋冷期(距今7.5~5 ka BP)期间的南移。对低纬过程长时间尺度轨道周期的探讨表明,末次冰盛期赤道东太平洋出现了较偏南的热带辐合带锋面系统,甚至在1.65 Ma冰期,热带辐合带也有快速南移的证据。海洋沉积的粒度、黏土矿物、陆源粉尘、元素和同位素、有孔虫分析等研究方法在推测厄尔尼诺-南方涛动和热带辐合带位移中有很好的应用,建议以陆源生态系统对气候的响应为切入点、以孢粉为手段来探讨陆源植被、气候、火灾和海-陆大气环流等低纬过程的变化特征,进而反演沃克环流(或厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)演化和热带辐合带位移的影响。展开更多
Mangroves play a pivotal role in tropical and subtropical coastal ecosystem,yet they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change,particularly the accelerated global sea level rise(SLR)and stronger tropical ...Mangroves play a pivotal role in tropical and subtropical coastal ecosystem,yet they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change,particularly the accelerated global sea level rise(SLR)and stronger tropical cyclones(TCs).However,there is a lack of research addressing future simultaneous combined impacts of the slow-onset of SLR and rapid-onset of TCs on China's mangroves.In order to develop a comprehensive risk assessment method considering the superimposed effects of these two factors and analyze risk for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,Hainan Island,China,we used observational and climate model data to assess the risks to mangroves under low,intermediate,and very high greenhouse gas(GHG)emission scenarios(such as SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)in 2030,2050,and 2100,and compiled a risk assessment scheme for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China.The results showed that the combined risks from SLR and TCs will continue to rise;however,SLRs will increase in intensity,and TCs will decrease.The comprehensive risk of the Dongzhaigang mangroves posed by climate change will remain low under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios by 2030,but it will increase substantially by 2100.While under SSP5-8.5 scenario,the risks to mangroves in Dongzhaigang are projected to increase considerably by 2050,and approximately 68.8%of mangroves will be at very high risk by 2100.The risk to the Dongzhaigang mangroves is not only influenced by the hazards but also closely linked to their exposure and vulnerability.We therefore propose climate resilience developmental responses for mangroves to address the effects of climate change.This study for the combined impact of TCs and SLR on mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China can enrich the method system of mangrove risk assessment and provide references for scientific management.展开更多
The future inundation by storm surge on coastal areas are currently ill-defined.With increasing global sealevel due to climate change,the coastal flooding by storm surge is more and more frequently,especially in coast...The future inundation by storm surge on coastal areas are currently ill-defined.With increasing global sealevel due to climate change,the coastal flooding by storm surge is more and more frequently,especially in coastal lowland with land subsidence.Therefore,the risk assessment of such inundation for these areas is of great significance for the sustainable socio-economic development.In this paper,the authors use Elevation-Area method and Regional Ocean Model System(ROMS)model to assess the risk of the inundation of Bohai Bay by storm surge.The simulation results of Elevation-Area method show that either a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can inundate coastal areas exceeding 8000 km^(2);the numerical simulation results based on hydrodynamics,considering ground friction and duration of the storm surge high water,show that a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can only inundate an area of over 2000 km^(2),which is far less than 8000 km^(2);while,when taking into account the land subsidence and sea level rise,the very inundation range will rapidly increase by 2050 and 2100.The storm surge will greatly impact the coastal area within about 10-30 km of the Bohai Bay,in where almost all major coastal projects are located.The prompt response to flood disaster due to storm surge is urgently needed,for which five suggestions have been proposed based on the geological background of Bohai Bay.This study may offer insight into the development of the response and adaptive plans for flooding disasters caused by storm surge.展开更多
Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast ...Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast and thus cause casualties,economic losses,and environmental damage.Using a 3D tidal model,we reconstructed the typhoon(TY)wind field to simulate the storm surge induced by typical STYs.The TY activity was then analyzed using historical data.Results showed a downtrend of varying degrees in the annual frequency of STYs and TCs in the Western North Pacific(WNP)Basin,with a significant trend change observed for TCs from 1949 to 2021.A large difference in the interannual change in frequency was found between STYs and TCs in the WNP and Eastern China Sea(ECS).Along the coast of EC,the frequency of landfall TCs showed a weak downtrend,and the typical STYs showed reverse micro growth with peak activity in August.Zhejiang,Fujian,and Taiwan were highly vulnerable to the frontal hits of typical STYs.Affected by climate change,the average lifetime maximum intensity(LMI)locations and landfall locations of typical STYs in the ECS basin showed a significant poleward migration trend.In addition,the annual average LMI and accumulated cyclone energy showed an uptrend,indicating the increasing severity of the disaster risk.Affected by the typical STY activity in the ECS,the maximum storm surge area also showed poleward migration,and the coast of North China faced potential growth in high storm surge risks.展开更多
Storm surge is often the marine disaster that poses the greatest threat to life and property in coastal areas.Accurate and timely issuance of storm surge warnings to take appropriate countermeasures is an important me...Storm surge is often the marine disaster that poses the greatest threat to life and property in coastal areas.Accurate and timely issuance of storm surge warnings to take appropriate countermeasures is an important means to reduce storm surge-related losses.Storm surge numerical models are important for storm surge forecasting.To further improve the performance of the storm surge forecast models,we developed a numerical storm surge forecast model based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation(SCVT)grid.The model is based on shallow water equations in vector-invariant form,and is discretized by Arakawa C grid.The SCVT grid can not only better describe the coastline information but also avoid rigid transitions,and it has a better global consistency by generating high-resolution grids in the key areas through transition refinement.In addition,the simulation speed of the model is accelerated by using the openACC-based GPU acceleration technology to meet the timeliness requirements of operational ensemble forecast.It only takes 37 s to simulate a day in the coastal waters of China.The newly developed storm surge model was applied to simulate typhoon-induced storm surges in the coastal waters of China.The hindcast experiments on the selected representative typhoon-induced storm surge processes indicate that the model can reasonably simulate the distribution characteristics of storm surges.The simulated maximum storm surges and their occurrence times are consistent with the observed data at the representative tide gauge stations,and the mean absolute errors are 3.5 cm and 0.6 h respectively,showing high accuracy and application prospects.展开更多
文摘在国内外研究的基础上,对印太暖池区的沃克环流和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)、热带辐合带(ITCZ)等低纬过程的空间分布和随时间的变化规律及其研究方法进行初步归纳,并指出研究中存在的问题。本文论述了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动变率在全新世早期及中世纪气候异常期(1 000~700 a BP)的晚期逐渐增强,介绍了热带辐合带在BA暖期(B?llingAller?d Warm Period)和前北方期(pre-Boreal,10.3~9.5 ka BP)的北移,以及在新仙女木事件(Younger Dryas Event,12.5~11.5 ka BP)和北大西洋冷期(距今7.5~5 ka BP)期间的南移。对低纬过程长时间尺度轨道周期的探讨表明,末次冰盛期赤道东太平洋出现了较偏南的热带辐合带锋面系统,甚至在1.65 Ma冰期,热带辐合带也有快速南移的证据。海洋沉积的粒度、黏土矿物、陆源粉尘、元素和同位素、有孔虫分析等研究方法在推测厄尔尼诺-南方涛动和热带辐合带位移中有很好的应用,建议以陆源生态系统对气候的响应为切入点、以孢粉为手段来探讨陆源植被、气候、火灾和海-陆大气环流等低纬过程的变化特征,进而反演沃克环流(或厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)演化和热带辐合带位移的影响。
基金Under the auspices of the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No.2017YFA0604902,2017YFA0604903,2017YFA0604901)。
文摘Mangroves play a pivotal role in tropical and subtropical coastal ecosystem,yet they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change,particularly the accelerated global sea level rise(SLR)and stronger tropical cyclones(TCs).However,there is a lack of research addressing future simultaneous combined impacts of the slow-onset of SLR and rapid-onset of TCs on China's mangroves.In order to develop a comprehensive risk assessment method considering the superimposed effects of these two factors and analyze risk for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,Hainan Island,China,we used observational and climate model data to assess the risks to mangroves under low,intermediate,and very high greenhouse gas(GHG)emission scenarios(such as SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)in 2030,2050,and 2100,and compiled a risk assessment scheme for mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China.The results showed that the combined risks from SLR and TCs will continue to rise;however,SLRs will increase in intensity,and TCs will decrease.The comprehensive risk of the Dongzhaigang mangroves posed by climate change will remain low under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 scenarios by 2030,but it will increase substantially by 2100.While under SSP5-8.5 scenario,the risks to mangroves in Dongzhaigang are projected to increase considerably by 2050,and approximately 68.8%of mangroves will be at very high risk by 2100.The risk to the Dongzhaigang mangroves is not only influenced by the hazards but also closely linked to their exposure and vulnerability.We therefore propose climate resilience developmental responses for mangroves to address the effects of climate change.This study for the combined impact of TCs and SLR on mangroves in Dongzhaigang,China can enrich the method system of mangrove risk assessment and provide references for scientific management.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42293261)projects of the China Geological Survey(DD20230091,DD20189506,DD20211301)+1 种基金the 2024 Qinhuangdao City level Science and Technology Plan Self-Financing Project(Research on data processing methods for wave buoys in nearshore waters)the project of Hebei University of Environmental Engineering(GCZ202301)。
文摘The future inundation by storm surge on coastal areas are currently ill-defined.With increasing global sealevel due to climate change,the coastal flooding by storm surge is more and more frequently,especially in coastal lowland with land subsidence.Therefore,the risk assessment of such inundation for these areas is of great significance for the sustainable socio-economic development.In this paper,the authors use Elevation-Area method and Regional Ocean Model System(ROMS)model to assess the risk of the inundation of Bohai Bay by storm surge.The simulation results of Elevation-Area method show that either a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can inundate coastal areas exceeding 8000 km^(2);the numerical simulation results based on hydrodynamics,considering ground friction and duration of the storm surge high water,show that a 50-year or 100-year storm surge can only inundate an area of over 2000 km^(2),which is far less than 8000 km^(2);while,when taking into account the land subsidence and sea level rise,the very inundation range will rapidly increase by 2050 and 2100.The storm surge will greatly impact the coastal area within about 10-30 km of the Bohai Bay,in where almost all major coastal projects are located.The prompt response to flood disaster due to storm surge is urgently needed,for which five suggestions have been proposed based on the geological background of Bohai Bay.This study may offer insight into the development of the response and adaptive plans for flooding disasters caused by storm surge.
基金supported by four funds,including the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3106102)the Marine Science and Technology Innovation Project of Jiangsu Province(Nos.JSZRH YKJ202105,JSZRHYKI202303)+1 种基金the Nantong Social and Livelihood Science and Technology Project(Nos.MS12022009,MS22022082,MS22022083)the Project on Excellent Post-Graduate Dissertation of Hohai University(No.422003470).
文摘Climate change affects the activity of global and regional tropical cyclones(TCs).Among all TCs,typical super typhoons(STYs)are particularly devastating because they maintain their intensity when landing on the coast and thus cause casualties,economic losses,and environmental damage.Using a 3D tidal model,we reconstructed the typhoon(TY)wind field to simulate the storm surge induced by typical STYs.The TY activity was then analyzed using historical data.Results showed a downtrend of varying degrees in the annual frequency of STYs and TCs in the Western North Pacific(WNP)Basin,with a significant trend change observed for TCs from 1949 to 2021.A large difference in the interannual change in frequency was found between STYs and TCs in the WNP and Eastern China Sea(ECS).Along the coast of EC,the frequency of landfall TCs showed a weak downtrend,and the typical STYs showed reverse micro growth with peak activity in August.Zhejiang,Fujian,and Taiwan were highly vulnerable to the frontal hits of typical STYs.Affected by climate change,the average lifetime maximum intensity(LMI)locations and landfall locations of typical STYs in the ECS basin showed a significant poleward migration trend.In addition,the annual average LMI and accumulated cyclone energy showed an uptrend,indicating the increasing severity of the disaster risk.Affected by the typical STY activity in the ECS,the maximum storm surge area also showed poleward migration,and the coast of North China faced potential growth in high storm surge risks.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No.42076214.
文摘Storm surge is often the marine disaster that poses the greatest threat to life and property in coastal areas.Accurate and timely issuance of storm surge warnings to take appropriate countermeasures is an important means to reduce storm surge-related losses.Storm surge numerical models are important for storm surge forecasting.To further improve the performance of the storm surge forecast models,we developed a numerical storm surge forecast model based on an unstructured spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellation(SCVT)grid.The model is based on shallow water equations in vector-invariant form,and is discretized by Arakawa C grid.The SCVT grid can not only better describe the coastline information but also avoid rigid transitions,and it has a better global consistency by generating high-resolution grids in the key areas through transition refinement.In addition,the simulation speed of the model is accelerated by using the openACC-based GPU acceleration technology to meet the timeliness requirements of operational ensemble forecast.It only takes 37 s to simulate a day in the coastal waters of China.The newly developed storm surge model was applied to simulate typhoon-induced storm surges in the coastal waters of China.The hindcast experiments on the selected representative typhoon-induced storm surge processes indicate that the model can reasonably simulate the distribution characteristics of storm surges.The simulated maximum storm surges and their occurrence times are consistent with the observed data at the representative tide gauge stations,and the mean absolute errors are 3.5 cm and 0.6 h respectively,showing high accuracy and application prospects.