In 2022,four earthquakes with M_(S)≥6.0 including the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes occurred in the North-South Seismic Zone(NSSZ),which demonstrated high and strong seismicity.Pattern Informatics(...In 2022,four earthquakes with M_(S)≥6.0 including the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes occurred in the North-South Seismic Zone(NSSZ),which demonstrated high and strong seismicity.Pattern Informatics(PI)method,as an effective long and medium term earthquake forecasting method,has been applied to the strong earthquake forecasting in Chinese mainland and results have shown the positive performance.The earthquake catalog with magnitude above M_(S)3.0 since 1970 provided by China Earthquake Networks Center was employed in this study and the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)method was applied to test the forecasting efficiency of the PI method in each selected region related to the North-South Seismic Zone systematically.Based on this,we selected the area with the best ROC testing result and analyzed the evolution process of the PI hotspot map reflecting the small seismic activity pattern prior to the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes.A“forward”forecast for the area was carried out to assess seismic risk.The study shows the following.1)PI forecasting has higher forecasting efficiency in the selected study region where the difference of seismicity in any place of the region is smaller.2)In areas with smaller differences of seismicity,the activity pattern of small earthquakes prior to the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes can be obtained by analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution process of the PI hotspot map.3)The hotspot evolution in and around the southern Tazang fault in the study area is similar to that prior to the strong earthquakes,which suggests the possible seismic hazard in the future.This study could provide some ideas to the seismic hazard assessment in other regions with high seismicity,such as Japan,Californi,Turkey,and Indonesia.展开更多
目的:探究单纯疱疹病毒(HSV)感染后脑脊液(CSF)中S100B、Cys-C、MMP-9水平对自身免疫性脑炎(AE)的预测价值。方法:选取2016年1月至2021年3月河北中石油中心医院收治的200例HSV感染患者为研究对象,根据是否继发AE分为研究组(继发AE,35例...目的:探究单纯疱疹病毒(HSV)感染后脑脊液(CSF)中S100B、Cys-C、MMP-9水平对自身免疫性脑炎(AE)的预测价值。方法:选取2016年1月至2021年3月河北中石油中心医院收治的200例HSV感染患者为研究对象,根据是否继发AE分为研究组(继发AE,35例)和对照组(未继发AE,165例)。多因素Logistic回归分析HSV感染患者继发AE的独立影响因素。Spearman法分析脑脊液中Cys-C、MMP-9与S100B水平的相关性。受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析S100B、Cys-C、MMP-9对AE的预测价值。构建风险预测模型并进行评价。结果:多因素Logistic回归分析显示,MRI异常、脑脊液S100B、MMP-9升高、EEG异常是HSV感染患者继发AE的独立危险因素,脑脊液Cys-C是其保护因素(P<0.05)。Spearman分析显示,HSV感染患者Cys-C浓度与S100B水平呈负相关(r=-0.83,P<0.05),MMP-9浓度与S100B水平呈正相关(r=0.88,P<0.05)。构建的联合预测因子pre1诊断HSV患者继发AE的AUC明显大于S100B、Cys-C、MMP-9单独预测的AUC(0.876 vs 0.827、0.787、0.750)。构建的风险预测模型具有良好的区分度和一致性。结论:脑脊液中S100B、Cys-C、MMP-9水平均可对HSV感染患者诱发AE的可能性进行有效预测,且三项指标联合预测价值最大,其次是S100B蛋白、Cys-C、MMP-9。展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China Study on the Theory and Methods of Deterministic-Probabilistic(No.U2039207)the National Key Research and Development Program of China‘CSEP China in the Context of China Seismic Experimental Site’(No.2018YFE0109700).
文摘In 2022,four earthquakes with M_(S)≥6.0 including the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes occurred in the North-South Seismic Zone(NSSZ),which demonstrated high and strong seismicity.Pattern Informatics(PI)method,as an effective long and medium term earthquake forecasting method,has been applied to the strong earthquake forecasting in Chinese mainland and results have shown the positive performance.The earthquake catalog with magnitude above M_(S)3.0 since 1970 provided by China Earthquake Networks Center was employed in this study and the Receiver Operating Characteristic(ROC)method was applied to test the forecasting efficiency of the PI method in each selected region related to the North-South Seismic Zone systematically.Based on this,we selected the area with the best ROC testing result and analyzed the evolution process of the PI hotspot map reflecting the small seismic activity pattern prior to the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes.A“forward”forecast for the area was carried out to assess seismic risk.The study shows the following.1)PI forecasting has higher forecasting efficiency in the selected study region where the difference of seismicity in any place of the region is smaller.2)In areas with smaller differences of seismicity,the activity pattern of small earthquakes prior to the Menyuan M_(S)6.9 and Luding M_(S)6.8 earthquakes can be obtained by analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution process of the PI hotspot map.3)The hotspot evolution in and around the southern Tazang fault in the study area is similar to that prior to the strong earthquakes,which suggests the possible seismic hazard in the future.This study could provide some ideas to the seismic hazard assessment in other regions with high seismicity,such as Japan,Californi,Turkey,and Indonesia.
文摘目的:探究单纯疱疹病毒(HSV)感染后脑脊液(CSF)中S100B、Cys-C、MMP-9水平对自身免疫性脑炎(AE)的预测价值。方法:选取2016年1月至2021年3月河北中石油中心医院收治的200例HSV感染患者为研究对象,根据是否继发AE分为研究组(继发AE,35例)和对照组(未继发AE,165例)。多因素Logistic回归分析HSV感染患者继发AE的独立影响因素。Spearman法分析脑脊液中Cys-C、MMP-9与S100B水平的相关性。受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析S100B、Cys-C、MMP-9对AE的预测价值。构建风险预测模型并进行评价。结果:多因素Logistic回归分析显示,MRI异常、脑脊液S100B、MMP-9升高、EEG异常是HSV感染患者继发AE的独立危险因素,脑脊液Cys-C是其保护因素(P<0.05)。Spearman分析显示,HSV感染患者Cys-C浓度与S100B水平呈负相关(r=-0.83,P<0.05),MMP-9浓度与S100B水平呈正相关(r=0.88,P<0.05)。构建的联合预测因子pre1诊断HSV患者继发AE的AUC明显大于S100B、Cys-C、MMP-9单独预测的AUC(0.876 vs 0.827、0.787、0.750)。构建的风险预测模型具有良好的区分度和一致性。结论:脑脊液中S100B、Cys-C、MMP-9水平均可对HSV感染患者诱发AE的可能性进行有效预测,且三项指标联合预测价值最大,其次是S100B蛋白、Cys-C、MMP-9。
