Geo-information Tupu Analysis of Land Use Change in Haihe River Basin

[Objective] This study was to provide basis for the scientific management of land use in Haihe River Basin （HRB） through the quantitative exploration of the land use conversion, changes of intensity and spatial distribution in this region. [Method] With the support of remote sensing technology and geographic information technology, the land use maps of the study area in 40 years （1970-2010） were in- terpreted and plotted. Four kinds of tupu, namely, land use change tupu, process tupu, arising tupu and evolution mode tupu were built through the spatial overlay of the land use maps to analyze the change rules of land use patterns. [Result] The conversion of arable land to construction land was the main characteristics of land use changes in HRB for the 40 years; the area of non-stable region accounted for 35% of the total, indicating that the land use changed remarkably, thus, it was nec- essary to strengthen the scientific land management in HRB; the new conversions to all land use patterns were all the lowest in 1980-1990, indicating that land use changed slowly during this period. [Conclusion] The results indicate that, compared with conventional transfer matrix method, geo-information tupu has obvious advantage in analyzing land use changes that it can demonstrate the spatial distribution of interest region, display the multi-dimensional spatial information.

Using factor analysis on the comprehensive evaluation of oil pollution in the Haihe river basin

Selecting six indexs of pH, DO, COD, BOD5, ammonia nitrogen and petroleum hydrocarbons in Haihe River Basin of four seasons in 2012 - 2013 for factor analysis, appling Water Quality Pollution Index （API） to evaluate DO, COD, BOD5 and ammonia nitrogen, aims for systematic evluation to water quality of Haihe River Basin The results showed that two stations of B J1 and HB2 were the 1V type of water, others were the V type; Water Quality Pollution Index （API） was 1.44, which illustrated Haihe River Basin in the state of contamination that the degree of pollution exceeded the standard of functional areas. Factor Analysis explained that between COD, DO and NH3-N were significant difference （P〈0.05）; principal component analysis showed that, in addition to pH and BOD5, the other indicators were above 0.70; the contribution rate of COD, DO, NH3-N and TPH were higher, petroleum hydrocarbons was 100%, it can be considered that the waters type of pollution was organic pollution, and petroleum hydrocarbon contamination was more prominent.

Quantitative Evaluation of Sustainable Development and Eco-Environmental Carrying Capacity in Water-Deficient Regions:A Case Study in the Haihe River Basin,China

Quantitative assessment of development sustainability could be a challenge to regional management and planning, especially for areas facing great risks of water shortage. Surface-water decline and groundwater over-pumping have caused serious environmental problems and limited economic development in many regions all around the world. In this paper, a framework for quantitatively evaluating development sustainability was established with water-related eco-environmental carrying capacity （EECC） as the core measure. As a case study, the developed approach was applied to data of the Haihe River Basin, China, during 1998 through 2007. The overall sustainable development degree （SDD） is determined to be 0.39, suggesting that this rate of development is not sustainable. Results of scenario analysis revealed that overshoot, or resource over- exploitation, of the Basin＇s EECC is about 20% for both population and economy. Based on conditions in the study area in 2007, in order to achieve sustainable development, i.e., SDD〉0.70 in this study, the EECC could support a population of 108 million and gross domestic product （GDP） of 2.72 trillion CNY. The newly developed approach in quantifying ecoenvironmental carrying capacity is anticipated to facilitate sustainable development oriented resource management in waterdeficient areas.

Spatial and temporal variability of daily precipitation in Haihe River basin, 1958-2007

The seasonal variability and spatial distribution of precipitation are the main cause of flood and drought events. The study of spatial distribution and temporal trend of precipitation in river basins has been paid more and more attention. However, in China, the precipitation data are measured by weather stations （WS） of China Meteorological Administration and hydrological rain gauges （RG） of national and local hydrology bureau. The WS data usually have long record with fewer stations, while the RG data usually have short record with more stations. The consistency and correlation of these two data sets have not been well understood. In this paper, the precipitation data from 30 weather stations for 1958-2007 and 248 rain gauges for 1995-2004 in the Haihe River basin are examined and compared using linear regression, 5-year moving average, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Z test and F test methods. The results show that the annual precipitation from both WS and RG records are normally distributed with minor difference in the mean value and variance. It is statistically feasible to extend the precipitation of RG by WS data sets. Using the extended precipitation data, the detailed spatial distribution of the annual and seasonal precipitation amounts as well as their temporal trends are calculated and mapped. The various distribution maps produced in the study show that for the whole basin the precipitation of 1958-2007 has been decreasing except for spring season. The decline trend is significant in summer, and this trend is stronger after the 1980s. The annual and seasonal precipitation amounts and changing trends are different in different regions and seasons. The precipitation is decreasing from south to north, from coastal zone to inland area.

Interannual and Interdecadal Variability of Atmospheric Water Vapor Transport in the Haihe River Basin

The seasonal mean atmospheric precipitable water and water vapor transport over the Haihe River Basin （HRB） in North China with a focus on their interannual to interdecadal variability, and then the relationships of the interannual and interdecadal variability of the water cycle over the HRB to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） phenomena were investigated using the observational and National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） reanalysis data. There was a strong interdecadal variability for the water cycle （such as precipitation and water vapor transport） over the region, with an abrupt change occurring mostly in the mid 1970s. The intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon largely affected the atmospheric water vapor transport. Generally, the net meridional convergence of the water vapor flux over the region was relatively large before 1965, and it declined gradually from then on with a further notable decrease since mid 1970s. Zonal water vapor transport was similar to meridional, but with a much smaller magnitude and no noteworthy turning in the mid 1970s. Results also suggested that the wind field played an important role in the water vapor transport over the HRB before the mid 1960s, and the interdecadal variability of the water cycle （precipitation, water vapor transport, etc.） in the summer was related to the PDO; however, interannual variation of the water vapor transport could also be related to the ENSO phenomena.

Vulnerability of Water Resources and Its Spatial Heterogeneity in Haihe River Basin, China

To manage water resources effectively, a multiscale assessment of the vulnerability of water resources on the basis of political boundaries and watersheds is necessary. This study addressed issues on the vulnerability of water resources and provided a multiscale comparison of spatial heterogeneity under a climate change background. Using improved quantitative evaluation methods of vulnerabil- ity, the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index, we evaluated the vulnerability of water resources and its spatial heterogeneity in the Haihe River Basin in four scales, namely, second-class water resource regions （Class II WRRs）, third-class water resource regions （Class III WRRs）, Province-Class II WRRs, and Province-Class III WRRs. Results show that vulnerability enhances from the north to south in the different scales, and shows obvious spatial heterogeneity instead of moving toward convergence in multiscale assessment results. Among the Class II WRRs, the Tuhai-Majia River is the most vulnerable area, and the vulnerability of the Luanhe River is lower than that of the north of the Haihe River Basin, which in turn is lower than that of the south of the Haihe River Basin. In the scales of Class III WRRs and Province-Class III WRRs, the vulnerability shows obvious spatial heterogeneity and diversity measured by the Theil index and the Shannon-Weaver index. Multiscale vulnerability assessment results based on political boundaries and the watersheds of the Haihe River Basin innovatively provided in this paper are important and useful to characterize the real spatial pattern of the vulnerability of water resources and improve water resource management.

Risk assessment of water security in Haihe River Basin during drought periods based on D-S evidence theory

The weights of the drought risk index （DRI）, which linearly combines the reliability, resiliency, and vulnerability, are difficult to obtain due to complexities in water security during drought periods. Therefore, drought entropy was used to determine the weights of the three critical indices. Conventional simulation results regarding the risk load of water security during drought periods were often regarded as precise. However, neither the simulation process nor the DRI gives any consideration to uncertainties in drought events. Therefore, the Dempster-Shafer （D-S） evidence theory and the evidential reasoning algorithm were introduced, and the DRI values were calculated with consideration of uncertainties of the three indices. The drought entropy and evidential reasoning algorithm were used in a case study of the Haihe River Basin to assess water security risks during drought periods. The results of the new DRI values in two scenarios were compared and analyzed. It is shown that the values of the DRI in the D-S evidence algorithm increase slightly from the original results of Zhang et al. （2005）, and the results of risk assessment of water security during drought periods are reasonable according to the situation in the study area. This study can serve as a reference for further practical application and planning in the Haihe River Basin, and other relevant or similar studies.

Determination of a Reasonable Percentage for Ecological Water-Use in the Haihe River Basin, China

An investigation was conducted to study problems of determining a reasonable percentage for ecological water-use in the Haihe River Basin of China. Three key aspects for the ecological water requirement （EWR） were analyzed, involving i） the EWR for river system, ii） the EWR for wetlands and lakes, and iii） the EWR for discharge into the sea to maintain the estuary ecological balance of the Haihe River. The Montana method and related water level-flow relationships, and the statistic approach based on hydrological records were applied to estimate different components of EWR. The results showed that the total ecological water demand in the region, was about 3.47-14.56 billion m^3. Considering flow regime change and uncertainty, the ecological water demand could be estimated by the hydrological frequency approach. Preliminary analysis showed that for different annual runoff under the frequencies of 20%, 50%, 75% and 95%, the ecological water demand approached 12%-50%, 18%-74%, 24%-103%, 35%-148% and 16%-66%, respectively. By further analysis to balance ecological water-use and socioeconomic water-use, the rational percentage of ecological water-use was estimated as 35%-74%, that provides useful information to judge whether the allocation of water resources is reasonable, and was proved to be satisfactory by comparing with the practical condition.

Change of the solar radiation and its causes in the Haihe River Basin and surrounding areas

Solar radiation is an important driving force for the formation and evolution of climate system. Analysis of change in solar radiation is helpful in understanding mechanism of climate change. In this study, the temporal and spatial variations of solar radiation and the cause of the change in solar radiation have been analyzed based on meteorological data from 46 national meteorological stations and aerosol index data from TOMS over the Haihe River Basin and surrounding areas. The results have shown that solar radiation and direct radiation significantly decreased, while scattered radiation increased during the period 1957-2008. Spatially, the decreasing trend of solar radiation was more and more significant from low population density areas to high population density areas. The spatial distribution of increase in aerosol index is consistent with that of decrease in solar radiation. The increase in aerosols resulting from human activities was an important reason for the decrease in solar radiation.

Subdaily to Seasonal Change of Surface Energy and Water Flux of the Haihe River Basin in China: Noah and Noah-MP Assessment

The land surface processes of the Noah-MP and Noah models are evaluated over four typical landscapes in the Haihe River Basin(HRB) using in-situ observations. The simulated soil temperature and moisture in the two land surface models(LSMs) is consistent with the observation, especially in the rainy season. The models reproduce the mean values and seasonality of the energy fluxes of the croplands, despite the obvious underestimated total evaporation. Noah shows the lower deep soil temperature. The net radiation is well simulated for the diurnal time scale. The daytime latent heat fluxes are always underestimated, while the sensible heat fluxes are overestimated to some degree. Compared with Noah, Noah-MP has improved daily average soil heat flux with diurnal variations. Generally, Noah-MP performs fairly well for different landscapes of the HRB. The simulated cold bias in soil temperature is possibly linked with the parameterized partition of the energy into surface fluxes. Thus, further improvement of these LSMs remains a major challenge.

Estimation and Characteristic Analysis of Biomass within the Haihe River Basin Based on CASA Model

Using CASA model, biomass within the Haihe River basin during 2002 -2007 was estimated based on remote sensing images, corresponding data of temperature, precipitation and solar radiation, and 1：400 000 0 maps of vegetation coverage in China. Variations in the biomass with vegetation type and vegetation coverage in 2007 were analyzed. Meanwhile, its temporal and spatial changes were discussed. The results validate the applicability of CASA model in the estimation of biomass within the Haihe River basin. During the past 6 years, annual average biomass within the basin was 405.5 Tg in total; annual average biomass in the basin was high in the southeast but low in the northwest, namely plains 〉 mountains 〉 plateaus.

Water Security Situation in Haihe River Basin after South-to-North Water Transfer Project

The over-exploitation of water resources in the Haihe River Basin （HRB） has now become a serious problem. This is clearly evidenced by the fact that many local rivers and lakes are drying up and the total amount of over-exploited groundwater has reached over 1000×10^8m^3. It is important to note that the exploitation of water resources in HRB was reasonable before 1979. After 1980, however, over-exploitation happened with an annual average amount of 40×10^8m^3. Both the dry season and rapid economic growth in HRB took place at the same time. Therefore, the over-exploitation of water in HRB was actually the negative result of the conjunction of a continuous dry season and rapid economic growth. So the over-exploitation would not be as serious as it is today if either of the above two stopped. After the first stage of south-to-north water transfer project, the water shortage problem in HRB could be eased for the following reasons： firstly, water transfer project will bring to the Basin 60x108m3 water resources; secondly, a wet season will come back eventually according to natural law of climate variability; finally, its agricultural and industrial use and total water consumption all have decreased from the peak value, so that the groundwater table will raise certainly and ecological water in rivers and lakes that were dried-up will be partly restored. In the future, the main problem of water resources security in HRB will include water pollution, operation risk of the south-to-north water transfer project, groundwater pollution and engineering geological hazards that may be brought by groundwater rise. The proposed countermeasures are as follows： keeping strengthening water demand management, raising water price as well as subsidies for the low- income family and improving other water related policies, preventing and dealing with water pollution seriously and getting fully prepared for the operation of south-to-north water transfer project.

Inter-decadal Variability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon and Its Impact on Hydrologic Variables in the Haihe River Basin, China

Wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall tests are employed to evaluate the variation in the East Asian summer monsoon（EASM） and hydrological variables in the Haihe River basin calculated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity model. The relationships between those variables and the EASM are also examined. The results indicate consistent 40 a periodic variation in both the hydrological variables and the EASM. The hydrologic variables show downward trends in the Haihe River basin over the past 60 years, especially in piedmont regions of the Taihang-Yan Mountains. The variables are closely related to the EASM, whose continuous weakening since the 1970 s has resulted in prolonged drought and severe water shortages in the basin. The periodicity of the EASM index was analyzed using continuous wavelet transform methods. We found the most significant periodic signal of the EASM is ~80 years; therefore, the EASM may reinforce and reach a maximum in the 2040 s, resulting in more precipitation and other impacts on basin water resources. Hydrologic variables in the basin in the 2040 s are predicted, and their spatial distributions in the Haihe River basin are also discussed. These results allow for the estimation of water resources under forecasted EASM, which will be useful for water resources management in the Haihe River basin.

Water Shortage Risk Assessment in the Haihe River Basin, China

This paper studies water balance in the Haihe River Basin, China and assesses water shortage risk for the period 1994–2007. The authors identify that there is a water shortage problem in this area and propose that the non-intake water consumption （NIWC） is a very important water balance element. The NIWC in the Haihe River Basin flow is 5.91×109m3 in normal years. It was concluded from our evaluation that the water shortage risk during 1994–2007 was very high. Using international water risk assessment theory, multiyear risk indicators in Haihe River Basin can be calculated. Water risk rate, resiliency, stability, and vulnerability for the Haihe River Basin for the period 1994–2007 were 0.786, 0.000, 0.154 and 0.173 respectively. With the use of counter-force factors and adoption of different priorities to different water consumers, the water shortage risk can be decreased. The integrated water shortage risk indicators of the Haihe River Basin are 0.095–0.328. In this study, water availability from the South-North Water Diversion Project is also considered. By the year 2014, about 5×109m3 of water will be diverted from the Yangtse River, and the water shortage risk in the Haihe River Basin will drop from 0.229–0.297 to 0.152–0.234 under an inflow water frequency of 50%–75%. However, a risk of water shortage in this area will persist.

Long-term precipitation change by hourly data in Haihe River Basin during 1961–2004

Hourly summer precipitation data recorded at 21 stations during 1961-2004 in the Haihe River Basin in North China were an alyzed. The results show that the precipitation frequency and amount and the morning peak mainly relating to longduratiol rainfall events decreased during this period, whereas the normalized afternoon peak mainly relating to short-duration event： increased, which may suggest that the proportion of short-duration rainfall has increased as the total summer rainfall has de creased. For short-duration events, the mean intensity and peak intensity increased at most stations and the time to peak inten sity decreased, which may be attributable to the higher thermal contrast between the warmer lower surface and cooler uppe level. In the case of long-duration events, the total amount was significantly correlated with the East Asian summer monsool index for the period 1961-2001 （correlation coefficient of 0.63）. Although the total amount of rainfall in long-duration event： decreased in the basin, the mean intensity and peak intensity, as well as the extreme hourly precipitation, increased in the western basin and decreased in the eastern basin.

Climate Simulation and Future Projection of Precipitation and the Water Vapor Budget in the Haihe River Basin

The climatological characteristics of precipitation （HRB） are analyzed using daily observations at 740 and the water vapor budget in the Haihe River basin stations in China in 1951 2007 and the 4-time daily ERA40 reanalysis data in 1958 2001. The results show that precipitation and surface air temperature present significant interannual and interdecadal variability, with cold and wet conditions before the 1970s but warm and dry conditions after the 1980s. Precipitation has reduced substantially since the 1990s, with a continued increase of surface air temperature. The total column water vapor has also reduced remarkably since the late 1970s. The multi-model ensemble from the Fourth Assessment Report （AR4） of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） has capably simulated the 20th century climate features and successfully reproduced the spatial patterns of precipitation and temperature. Unfortunately, the models do not reproduce the interdecadal changes. Based on these results, future projections of the climate in the HRB are discussed under the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios （SRES） B1, A1B, and A2. The results show that precipitation is expected to increase in the 21st century, with substantial interannual fluctuations relative to the models＇ baseline climatology. A weak increasing trend in precipitation is projected before the 2040s, followed by an abrupt increase after the 2040s, especially in winter. Precipitation is projected to increase by 10% 18% by the end of the 21st century. Due to the persistent warming of surface air temperature, water vapor content in the lower troposphere is projected to increase. Relative humidity will decrease in the mid-lower troposphere but increase in the upper troposphere. On the other hand, precipitation minus evaporation remains positive results, the HRB region is expected to get wetter throughout the 21st century. Based on these projection in the 21st century due to global warming.

Distribution and potential ecological risk of heavy metals in the typical eco-units of Haihe River Basin

The distribution and characteristics of seven heavy metals in sediments located in the typical ecological units （eco-units） （e.g., rivers, lakes, and estuaries） of Haihe River Basin were analyzed. The Hakanson potential ecological risk index was used for ecological risk assessment. The results indicated that the concentration scales of As, Hg, Cr, Cd, Pb, Cu, and Zn in the eco-units were 2.08 to 24.80 mg·g-1, 0.01 to 1135.50 mg·g-1, 28.70 to 152.73mg·g-1, 0.03 to 195765.83mg·g-1, 8.65 to 157.82mg·g-1, 6.47 to 178.61mg·g-1, and 21.09 to 1076.25 mg·g-1, respectively. The maximum concentra- tions of Hg, Cd, and Zn showed higher levels than other water bodies around the world. Hg and Cd have high concentrations in Zhangweinanhe River （1135.50 and 195765.83mg·g-1, respectively） and Haihe Estuary （790.50 and 548.47 mg·g-1, respectively）. According to the ecological factor, Cd and Hg showed very strong ecological risks. The seven heavy metals, namely, Cd, Hg, As, Cr, Pb, Cu, and Zn, exhibited ecological risk levels in descending order. Based on the potential ecological risk index, Luanhe River and Baiyangdian Lake had moderate ecological risks, whereas every site in Zhangweinanhe River and Haihe Estuary had substantial risk levels. The risk order of the typical eco-units are as follows： Zhangweinan River （2278345.68） 〉 Estuary （161914.74） 〉 Luanhe River （191.54）〉Baiyangdian Lake （120.95）. These results provided a scientific basis for water environment improve- ment and risk management of the Haihe River Basin.

The Influence of Large-Scale Circulation on the Summer Hydrological Cycle in the Haihe River Basin of China

In this study, we focus on changes in three important components of the hydrological-cycle in the Haihe River basin （HRB） during 1957-2005： precipitation （Prep）, actual evaportranspiration （ETa）, and pan evaporation （PE）-a measure of potential evaporation. The changes in these components have been evaluated in relation to changes in the East Asian summer monsoon. Summer Prep for the whole basin has decreased significantly during 1957-2005. Recent weakening of the convergence of the integrated water vapor flux, in combination with a change from cyclonic-like large-scale circulation conditions to anti-cyclonic-like conditions, led to the decrease in the summer Prep in the HRB. ETa is positively correlated with Prep on the interannual timescale. On longer timescales, however, ETa is less dependent on Prep or the large-scale circulation. We found negative trends in ETa when the ERA40 reanalysis data were used, but positive trends in ETa when the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data were used. PE declined during the period 1957-2001. The declining of PE could be explained by a combination of declining solar radiation and declining surface wind. However, the declining solar radiation may itself be related to the weakening winds, due to weaker dispersion of pollution. If so, the downward trend of PE may be mainly caused by weakening winds.

Remote sensing monitoring on regional crop water productivity in the Haihe River Basin

Crop water productivity （CWP） agricultural development in water scarcity is one of the important indicators for sustainable area. There is serious conflict between water sup- ply and requirement in the Haihe River Basin. CWP of winter wheat and summer maize from 2003 to 2007 in the Haihe River Basin is estimated based on large-scale evapotranspiration （ET） and crop yield obtained by remote sensing technology. Spatial and temporal distribution of CWP of winter wheat and summer maize is investigated in this study. Results show that CWP of winter wheat in most parts of the study area varies from 1.02 kg/m3 to 1.53 kg/m3, and CWP of summer maize varies from 1.31 kg/m3 to 2.03 kg/m3. Multi-year averaged CWP of winter wheat and summer maize in the study area is about 1.19 kg/m3 and 1.59 kg/m3. CWP results show certain promotion potential to alleviate the water shortage in the Haihe River Basin. Correlation analysis of CWP, crop yield and ET shows that there is great potential for crop yield promotion without the growth in irrigation water. Large-scale CWP estimated by remote sensing technology in this study shows spatial distribution features, which could be used to real-time agricultural water resource management combined with crop yield and ET.

Effects of climate and land use changes on runoff,sediment,nitrogen and phosphorus losses in the Haihe River Basin

Investigating the impacts of climate and land use changes on the hydrological cycle and water environment at the basin scale is important for providing scientific evidence to manage the trade-offs and synergies among water resources,agricultural production and environmental protection.We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)with various spatiotemporal data to quantify the contributions of climate and land use changes to runoff,sediment,nitrogen(N)and phosphorus(P)losses in the Haihe River Basin since the 1980s.The results showed that 1)climate and land use changes significantly increased evapotranspiration(ET),transport loss,sediment input and output,and organic N and P production,with ET,sediment input and organic N affected the most;2)runoff,sediment and ammonia N were most affected by climate and land use changes in the Daqing River Basin(217.3 mm),Nanyun River Basin(3917.3 tons)and Chaobai River Basin(87.6 kg/ha),respectively;3)the impacts of climate and land use changes showed explicit spatiotemporal patterns.In the Daqing,Yongding and Nanyun River Basins,the contribution of climate change to runoff and sediment kept increasing,reaching 88.6%-98.2%and 63%-77.2%,respectively.In the Ziya and Chaobai River Basins,the contribution of land use was larger,reaching 88.6%-92.8%and 59.8%-92.7%,respectively.In the Yongding,Chaobai,Ziya and Daqing River Basins,the contribution of land use to N and P losses showed an increasing trend over the past 40 years(maximum 89.7%).By contrast,in Nanyun and Luanhe River Basins,the contribution of climate change to N and P losses increased more(maximum 92.1%).Our evaluation of the impacts of climate and land use changes on runoff,sediment,and N and P losses will help to support the optimization of land and water resources in the Haihe River Basin.