基于Z-Score动态压缩的高效联邦学习算法

联邦学习作为一种具有隐私保护的新兴分布式计算范式,在一定程度上保护了用户隐私和数据安全。然而,由于联邦学习系统中客户端与服务器需要频繁地交换模型参数,造成了较大的通信开销。在带宽有限的无线通信场景中,这成为了限制联邦学习发展的主要瓶颈。针对这一问题,提出了一种基于Z-Score的动态稀疏压缩算法。通过引入Z-Score,对局部模型更新进行离群点检测,将重要的更新值视为离群点,从而将其挑选出来。在不需要复杂的排序算法以及原始模型更新的先验知识的情况下,实现模型更新的稀疏化。同时随着通信轮次的增加,根据全局模型的损失值动态地调整稀疏率,从而在保证模型精度的前提下最大程度地减少总通信量。通过实验证明,在I.I.D.数据场景下,该算法与联邦平均(FedAvg)算法相比可以降低95%的通信量,精度损失仅仅为1.6%,与FTTQ算法相比可以降低40%~50%的通信量,精度损失仅为1.29%,证明了该方法在保证模型性能的同时显著降低了通信成本。

基于F-score和二进制灰狼优化的肿瘤基因选择方法

针对肿瘤基因数据维度高、噪声多、冗余性高的现状,结合Spearman相关系数改进F-score算法,在此基础上优化二进制灰狼算法,提出了一种基于改进F-score和二进制灰狼算法的肿瘤基因选择算法.首先,考虑特征之间的相关性,计算每个特征的F-score值和特征之间的Spearman相关系数的绝对值;然后,计算权重系数得出各个特征的权重值,依据重要性进行排序,选出初选特征子集;最后,通过收敛因子的衰减曲线和初始化方法优化二进制灰狼算法,调整全局搜索和局部搜索所占比例,增强全局搜索能力并提高局部搜索速度,有效节省时间开销,提升特征选择的分类性能和效率,得到最优特征子集.在9个肿瘤基因数据集上测试所提算法,在分类准确率和筛选特征数目两个指标上进行仿真实验,并与4种其他算法进行对比,实验结果证明所提算法表现良好,可有效降低基因数据维度,并具有较好的分类精度.

Gustave Roussy Immune Score——结直肠癌患者的新型预后评分

目的探讨Gustave Roussy Immune Score(GRIm评分)在结直肠癌(CRC)根治术后患者预后评估中的价值。方法本研究共纳入2004年6月至2019年8月271例CRC根治术后患者。分析GRIm评分与CRC临床病理特征的关系。采用Kaplan-Meier法绘制CRC患者无病生存时间(DFS)曲线,生存差异行Log-rank检验;Cox风险比例回归模型分析影响CRC患者预后的因素;校准曲线和受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线检验基于GRIm评分的列线图的预测效能。结果GRIm评分与性别、肿瘤部位、神经侵犯、N分期、美国癌症联合委员会(AJCC)分期、白蛋白(ALB)评分和乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)评分有关(P<0.05);GRIm简化评分与肿瘤部位、肿瘤直径、癌栓、ALB评分和LDH评分有关(P<0.05)。Cox风险比例回归模型显示,GRIm评分是影响CRC患者DFS的独立因素(HR=2.546,95%CI:1.644~3.943,P<0.05)。包括GRIm评分的列线图对CRC患者DFS的预测能力优于第8版AJCC分期系统。结论GRIm评分是影响CRC患者DFS的独立因素,基于GRIm评分的列线图可以帮助临床医师有效评估CRC患者的预后,制定个体化治疗方案。

基于中心偏移的Fisher score与直觉邻域模糊熵的多标记特征选择

现有多标记Fisher score模型中边缘样本会影响算法分类效果。鉴于邻域直觉模糊熵处理不确定信息时具有更强的表达能力与分辨能力的优势,文中提出了一种基于中心偏移的Fisher score与邻域直觉模糊熵的多标记特征选择方法。首先,根据标记将多标记论域划分为多个样本集,计算样本集的特征均值作为标记下样本的原始中心点,以最远样本的距离乘以距离系数,去除边缘样本集,定义了新的有效样本集,计算中心偏移处理后的标记下每个特征的得分以及标记集的特征得分,进而建立了基于中心偏移的多标记Fisher score模型,预处理多标记数据。然后,引入多标记分类间隔作为自适应模糊邻域半径参数,定义了模糊邻域相似关系和模糊邻域粒,由此构造了多标记模糊邻域粗糙集的上、下近似集;在此基础上提出了多标记邻域粗糙直觉隶属度函数和非隶属度函数,定义了多标记邻域直觉模糊熵。最后,给出了特征的外部和内部重要度的计算公式,设计了基于邻域直觉模糊熵的多标记特征选择算法,筛选出最优特征子集。在多标记K近邻分类器下、9个多标记数据集上的实验结果表明,所提算法选择的最优子集具有良好的分类性能。

Role of albumin-bilirubin score in non-malignant liver disease

The albumin-bilirubin(ALBI)score,which was proposed to assess the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma,has gradually been extended to other liver diseases in recent years,including primary biliary cholangitis,liver cirrhosis,hepatitis,liver transplantation,and liver injury.The ALBI score is often compared with classical scores such as the Child-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease scores or other noninvasive prediction models.It is widely employed because of its immunity to subjective evaluation indicators and ease of obtaining detection indicators.An increasing number of studies have confirmed that it is highly accurate for assessing the prognosis of patients with chronic liver disease;additionally,it has demonstrated good predictive performance for outcomes beyond survival in patients with liver diseases,such as decompensation events.This article presents a review of the application of ALBI scores in various non-malignant liver diseases.

Are we ready to use new endoscopic scores for ulcerative colitis?

For ulcerative colitis(UC),the variability in inflammatory activity along the colon poses a challenge in management.The focus on achieving endoscopic healing in UC is evident,where the UC Endoscopic Index of Severity and Mayo Endoscopic Subscore are commonly used for evaluation.However,these indices primarily consider the most severely affected region.Liu et al recent study validates the Toronto Inflammatory Bowel Disease Global Endoscopic Reporting(TIGER)score offering a comprehensive assessment of inflammatory activity across diverse segments of the colon and rectum and a reliable index correlating strongly with UC Endoscopic Index of Severity and moderately with Mayo Endoscopic Subscore(MES).Despite recommendation,certain aspects warrant further invest-igation.Fecal calprotectin,an intermediate target,correlates with TIGER and should be explored.Determining TIGER scores defining endoscopic remission and response,evaluating agreement with histological activity,and assessing inter-endoscopist agreement for TIGER require scrutiny.Exploring the correlation between TIGER and intestinal ultrasound,akin to MES,adds value.

Current status of magnetic resonance imaging radiomics in hepatocellular carcinoma:A quantitative review with Radiomics Quality Score

BACKGROUND Radiomics is a promising tool that may increase the value of magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)for different tasks related to the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC).However,its implementation in clinical practice is still far,with many issues related to the methodological quality of radiomic studies.AIM To systematically review the current status of MRI radiomic studies concerning HCC using the Radiomics Quality Score(RQS).METHODS A systematic literature search of PubMed,Google Scholar,and Web of Science databases was performed to identify original articles focusing on the use of MRI radiomics for HCC management published between 2017 and 2023.The methodological quality of radiomic studies was assessed using the RQS tool.Spearman’s correlation(ρ)analysis was performed to explore if RQS was correlated with journal metrics and characteristics of the studies.The level of statistical significance was set at P<0.05.RESULTS One hundred and twenty-seven articles were included,of which 43 focused on HCC prognosis,39 on prediction of pathological findings,16 on prediction of the expression of molecular markers outcomes,18 had a diagnostic purpose,and 11 had multiple purposes.The mean RQS was 8±6.22,and the corresponding percentage was 24.15%±15.25%(ranging from 0.0% to 58.33%).RQS was positively correlated with journal impact factor(IF;ρ=0.36,P=2.98×10^(-5)),5-years IF(ρ=0.33,P=1.56×10^(-4)),number of patients included in the study(ρ=0.51,P<9.37×10^(-10))and number of radiomics features extracted in the study(ρ=0.59,P<4.59×10^(-13)),and time of publication(ρ=-0.23,P<0.0072).CONCLUSION Although MRI radiomics in HCC represents a promising tool to develop adequate personalized treatment as a noninvasive approach in HCC patients,our study revealed that studies in this field still lack the quality required to allow its introduction into clinical practice.

Fecal calprotectin and endoscopic scores: The cornerstones in clinical practice for evaluating mucosal healing in inflammatory bowel disease

Managing inflammatory bowel disease(IBD)is becoming increasingly complex and personalized,considering the advent of new advanced therapies with distinct mechanisms of action.Achieving mucosal healing(MH)is a pivotal therapeutic goal in IBD management and can prevent IBD progression and reduce flares,hospitalization,surgery,intestinal damage,and colorectal cancer.Employing proactive disease and therapy assessment is essential to achieve better control of intestinal inflammation,even if subclinical,to alter the natural course of IBD.Periodic monitoring of fecal calprotectin(FC)levels and interval endoscopic evaluations are cornerstones for evaluating response/remission to advanced therapies targeting IBD,assessing MH,and detecting subclinical recurrence.Here,we comment on the article by Ishida et al Moreover,this editorial aimed to review the role of FC and endoscopic scores in predicting MH in patients with IBD.Furthermore,we intend to present some evidence on the role of these markers in future targets,such as histological and transmural healing.Additional prospective multicenter studies with a stricter MH criterion,standardized endoscopic and histopathological analyses,and virtual chromoscopy,potentially including artificial intelligence and other biomarkers,are desired.

Preoperative albumin-bilirubin score and liver resection percentage determine postoperative liver regeneration after partial hepatectomy

BACKGROUND The success of liver resection relies on the ability of the remnant liver to regenerate.Most of the knowledge regarding the pathophysiological basis of liver regeneration comes from rodent studies,and data on humans are scarce.Additionally,there is limited knowledge about the preoperative factors that influence postoperative regeneration.AIM To quantify postoperative remnant liver volume by the latest volumetric software and investigate perioperative factors that affect posthepatectomy liver regenera-tion.METHODS A total of 268 patients who received partial hepatectomy were enrolled.Patients were grouped into right hepatectomy/trisegmentectomy(RH/Tri),left hepa-tectomy(LH),segmentectomy(Seg),and subsegmentectomy/nonanatomical hepatectomy(Sub/Non)groups.The regeneration index(RI)and late rege-neration rate were defined as(postoperative liver volume)/[total functional liver volume(TFLV)]×100 and(RI at 6-months-RI at 3-months)/RI at 6-months,respectively.The lower 25th percentile of RI and the higher 25th percentile of late regeneration rate in each group were defined as“low regeneration”and“delayed regeneration”.“Restoration to the original size”was defined as regeneration of the liver volume by more than 90%of the TFLV at 12 months postsurgery.RESULTS The numbers of patients in the RH/Tri,LH,Seg,and Sub/Non groups were 41,53,99 and 75,respectively.The RI plateaued at 3 months in the LH,Seg,and Sub/Non groups,whereas the RI increased until 12 months in the RH/Tri group.According to our multivariate analysis,the preoperative albumin-bilirubin(ALBI)score was an independent factor for low regeneration at 3 months[odds ratio(OR)95%CI=2.80(1.17-6.69),P=0.02;per 1.0 up]and 12 months[OR=2.27(1.01-5.09),P=0.04;per 1.0 up].Multivariate analysis revealed that only liver resection percentage[OR=1.03(1.00-1.05),P=0.04]was associated with delayed regeneration.Furthermore,multivariate analysis demonstrated that the preoperative ALBI score[OR=2.63(1.00-1.05),P=0.02;per 1.0 up]and liver resection percentage[OR=1.02(1.00-1.05),P=0.04;per 1.0 up]were found to be independent risk factors associated with volume restoration failure.CONCLUSION Liver regeneration posthepatectomy was determined by the resection percentage and preoperative ALBI score.This knowledge helps surgeons decide the timing and type of rehepatectomy for recurrent cases.

基于SCORE-TCM的中医药团体标准抽样评价方案设计

目前,各社会团体积极参与中医药标准的制定和发布,特别是“十四五”以来,中医药团体标准化工作更是迎来了提质增效的关键阶段。深入评估社会团体发布的中医药标准质量,是推进中医药团体标准工作的关键环节和重点任务。前期已研制并形成了中医药团体标准评价体系(System of Consortium Standards Rating and Evaluation of Traditional Chinese Medicine, SCORETCM)。在上述背景下,本研究通过专家共识法,设计了一套基于SCORE-TCM的中医药团体标准抽样评价方案,应用场景为对于特定社会团体发布的标准,或各团体发布的特定技术类别的标准进行快速评估。该方案涵盖了标准抽样、材料收集、标准评价、结果解读的完整流程,为中医药团体标准的抽样评价工作提供了参考方案。

中医药团体标准评价体系(SCORE-TCM)解读

本文全面解读了中医药团体标准评价体系(System of Consortium Standards Rating and Evaluation of Traditional Chinese Medicine,SCORE-TCM)。SCORE-TCM是结合定性与定量评价,全面评估中医药团体标准在制定主体、文本编写、技术内容、推广应用和实施效益等几方面特征的综合评价工具。文中详述了SCORE-TCM的构建目的、定义和构建过程,解释了评价指标体系中的各项指标,并对每项指标的评价材料进行介绍。本文旨在帮助中医药团体标准的制定者、第三方评价机构和其他相关方更好地理解SCORE-TCM各评价条目的含义,更有效地运用于中医药团体标准的自评价或第三方评价,SCORE-TCM将为《中医药团体标准管理办法》的贯彻实施,以及中医药团体标准的高质量发展提供技术支持。

Lottery Numbers and Ordered Statistics

The lottery has long captivated the imagination of players worldwide, offering the tantalizing possibility of life-changing wins. While winning the lottery is largely a matter of chance, as lottery drawings are typically random and unpredictable. Some people use the lottery terminal randomly generates numbers for them, some players choose numbers that hold personal significance to them, such as birthdays, anniversaries, or other important dates, some enthusiasts have turned to statistical analysis as a means to analyze past winning numbers identify patterns or frequencies. In this paper, we use order statistics to estimate the probability of specific order of numbers or number combinations being drawn in future drawings.

Garg incontinence scores: New scoring system on the horizon to evaluate fecal incontinence. Will it make a difference?

The main aim of this opinion review is to comment on the recent article published by Garg et al in the World Journal of Gastroenterology 2023;29:4593–4603.The authors in the published article developed a new scoring system,Garg incon-tinence scores(GIS),for fecal incontinence(FI).FI is a chronic debilitating disease that has a severe negative impact on the quality of life of the patients.Rome IV criteria define FI as multiple episodes of solid or liquid stool passed into the clothes at least twice a month.The associated social stigmatization often leads to significant under-reporting of the condition,which further impairs management.An important point is that the complexity and vagueness of the disease make it difficult for the patients to properly define and report the magnitude of the problem to their physicians.Due to this,the management becomes even more difficult.This issue is resolved up to a considerable extent by a scoring ques-tionnaire.There were several scoring systems in use for the last three decades.The prominent of them were the Cleveland Clinic scoring system or the Wexner scoring system,St.Marks Hospital or Vaizey’s scores,and the FI severity index.However,there were several shortcomings in these scoring systems.In the opinion review,we tried to analyze the strength of GIS and compare it to the existing scoring systems.The main pitfalls in the existing scoring systems were that most of them gave equal weightage to different types of FI(solid,liquid,flatus,etc.),were not comprehensive,and took only the surgeon’s perception of FI into view.In GIS,almost all shortcomings of previous scoring systems had been addressed:different weights were assigned to different types of FI by a robust statistical methodology;the scoring system was made comprehensive by including all types of FI that were previously omitted(urge,stress and mucus FI)and gave priority to patients’rather than the physicians’perceptions while developing the scoring system.Due to this,GIS indeed looked like a paradigm shift in the evaluation of FI.However,it is too early to conclude this,as GIS needs to be validated for accuracy and simplicity in future studies.

Relationship between neonatal respiratory distress syndrome pulmonary ultrasonography and respiratory distress score,oxygenation index,and chest radiography grading

BACKGROUND Accurate condition assessment is critical for improving the prognosis of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome(RDS),but current assessment methods for RDS pose a cumulative risk of harm to neonates.Thus,a less harmful method for assessing the health of neonates with RDS is needed.AIM To analyze the relationships between pulmonary ultrasonography and respiratory distress scores,oxygenation index,and chest X-ray grade of neonatal RDS to identify predictors of neonatal RDS severity.METHODS This retrospective study analyzed the medical information of 73 neonates with RDS admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit of Liupanshui Maternal and Child Care Service Center between April and December 2022.The pulmonary ultrasonography score,respiratory distress score,oxygenation index,and chest Xray grade of each newborn before and after treatment were collected.Spearman correlation analysis was performed to determine the relationships among these values and neonatal RDS severity.RESULTS The pulmonary ultrasonography score,respiratory distress score,oxygenation index,and chest X-ray RDS grade of the neonates were significantly lower after treatment than before treatment(P<0.05).Spearman correlation analysis showed that before and after treatment,the pulmonary ultrasonography score of neonates with RDS was positively correlated with the respiratory distress score,oxygenation index,and chest X-ray grade(ρ=0.429–0.859,P<0.05).Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis indicated that pulmonary ultrasonography screening effectively predicted the severity of neonatal RDS(area under the curve=0.805–1.000,P<0.05).CONCLUSION The pulmonary ultrasonography score was significantly associated with the neonatal RDS score,oxygenation index,and chest X-ray grade.The pulmonary ultrasonography score was an effective predictor of neonatal RDS severity.

Analysis of the urethral stricture score and patient-related factors as predictors of outcomes following oral mucosal graft urethroplasty

Objective:The complexity of urethral strictures can predict outcomes following urethroplasty.The previously described urethral stricture score(U score)considered only stricture-related factors to grade the complexity of urethral strictures and to predict recurrence post urethroplasty,but not considered patient-related factors for the same.We aimed to study the correlation of both of these factors to the outcomes of oral mucosal graft urethroplasty.Methods:We retrospectively reviewed data of 101 patients who underwent oral mucosal graft urethroplasty in our institute with a minimum follow-up of 6 months.Baseline patient characteristics and stricture-related parameters were noted.The U score was calculated for all patients which consisted of the length,location,number,and etiology of stricture.Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to determine significant risk factors of recurrence.Results:The mean follow-up of patients was 15 months.Recurrence was seen in 28 patients and the mean time for detection of recurrence was 8 months of follow-up.The Charlson Comorbidity Index,history of previous intervention,length of strictures,location of strictures,number of strictures,history of smoking,and etiology were independent predictors of recurrence following urethroplasty.Based on these parameters,we formulated the modified U score(MU score).The scores ranged from 0 to 6 and a score of>2 was found to be predictive of recurrence.On comparing receiver operating characteristic curves for both scores by the DeLong test,the MU score had larger area under the curve than the U score.Conclusion:The MU scoring system is the first of its kind attempt taking into consideration both patient-and stricture-related factors to predict recurrence following oral mucosal graft urethroplasty.

Heparin-binding protein as a predictor of mortality in patients with diabetes mellitus and community-acquired pneumonia in intensive care unit:a propensity score matched study

BACKGROUND:Patients with diabetes mellitus(DM)are vulnerable to community-acquired pneumonia(CAP),which have a high mortality rate.We aimed to investigate the value of heparin-binding protein(HBP)as a prognostic marker of mortality in patients with DM and CAP.METHODS:This retrospective study included CAP patients who were tested for HBP at intensive care unit(ICU)admission from January 2019 to April 2020.Patients were allocated to the DM or non-DM group and paired with propensity score matching.Baseline characteristics and clinical outcomes up to 90 days were evaluated.The primary outcome was the 10-day mortality.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves,Kaplan-Meier analysis,and Cox regression were used for statistical analysis.RESULTS:Among 152 enrolled patients,60 pairs were successfully matched.There was no significant difference in 10-day mortality,while more patients in the DM group died within 28 d(P=0.024)and 90 d(P=0.008).In the DM group,HBP levels at ICU admission were higher in 10-day non-survivors than in 10-day survivors(median 182.21[IQR:55.43-300]ng/ml vs.median 66.40[IQR:34.13-107.85]ng/mL,P=0.019),and HBP levels could predict the 10-day mortality with an area under the ROC curve of 0.747.The cut-off value,sensitivity,and specificity were 160.6 ng/mL,66.7%,and 90.2%,respectively.Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that HBP was an independent prognostic factor for 10-day(HR 7.196,95%CI:1.596-32.455,P=0.01),28-day(HR 4.381,95%CI:1.449-13.245,P=0.009),and 90-day mortality(HR 4.581,95%CI:1.637-12.819,P=0.004)in patients with DM.CONCLUSION:Plasma HBP at ICU admission was associated with the 10-day,28-day,and 90-day mortality,and might be a prognostic factor in patients with DM and CAP.

Enhancing Network Design through Statistical Evaluation of MANET Routing Protocols

This paper contributes a sophisticated statistical method for the assessment of performance in routing protocols salient Mobile Ad Hoc Network(MANET)routing protocols:Destination Sequenced Distance Vector(DSDV),Ad hoc On-Demand Distance Vector(AODV),Dynamic Source Routing(DSR),and Zone Routing Protocol(ZRP).In this paper,the evaluation will be carried out using complete sets of statistical tests such as Kruskal-Wallis,Mann-Whitney,and Friedman.It articulates a systematic evaluation of how the performance of the previous protocols varies with the number of nodes and the mobility patterns.The study is premised upon the Quality of Service(QoS)metrics of throughput,packet delivery ratio,and end-to-end delay to gain an adequate understanding of the operational efficiency of each protocol under different network scenarios.The findings explained significant differences in the performance of different routing protocols;as a result,decisions for the selection and optimization of routing protocols can be taken effectively according to different network requirements.This paper is a step forward in the general understanding of the routing dynamics of MANETs and contributes significantly to the strategic deployment of robust and efficient network infrastructures.

Unraveling the Impact of Direct-Acting Antivirals on Hepatitis-Linked Cirrhosis: A Comprehensive Analysis of Fibrosis, Child Score, and Disease Progression

The treatment of hepatitis C has undergone a significant boom since the advent of direct acting antivirals (DAA). Indeed, the interferon-ribavirin combination that has been used to treat hepatitis C has a virological response in only 45% of cases with significant side effects. The advent of direct-acting antivirals has changed the prognosis of cirrhotic patients with hepatitis C. DAAs have ensured a sustained viral response in the majority of patients. Our work aims to see the evolution of hepatitis C patients at the cirrhosis stage under DAA. We conducted a retrospective study over 15 years (January 2009, January 2024) including all patients with post-viral cirrhosis C, whom we divided into two groups: group A, cirrhotic patients who received ribavirin and interferon, and group B, patients on DAA. From January 2009 to January 2024, we conducted a study of 182 patients with viral hepatitis C, including 102 cirrhotic patients. The mean age was 55 years. 66% of patients were initially treated with the ribavirin interferon combination, while 34% received direct-acting antivirals (DAAs). Since the introduction of DAAs, the most commonly used regimens have been sofosbuvir/daclatasvir with or without ribavirin and sofosbuvir/ledipasvir with or without ribavirin. Group A achieved sustained virological response (SVR) in 60% of cases, with notable side effects. In Group B, SVR was 98.18%, with improved tolerability and fewer side effects than previous treatments. Fifteen patients developed hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), with a significantly lower mortality rate in those treated with DAAs compared with pegylated dual therapy (p: 0.001).

Albumin-bilirubin score in non-malignant liver and other diseases

The albumin-bilirubin(ALBI)score is derived from albumin and bilirubin levels.Currently,the ALBI score is widely used in various clinical settings.A recent article in the World Journal of Gastroenterology summarized the application of the ALBI score in various non-malignant liver diseases.The ALBI score has a predictive power that is superior or non-inferior to established numerous measures.This may be related to its contiguity,sensitivity,and inclusion of albumin.While we recognize the good results of the ALBI score in a number of diseases,the ALBI score also has limitations.Variation studies for population characteristics and other factors should be performed to validate the performance of ALBI.Further modifications or optimization of ALBI scores should be taken into account.

Comparing 11 early warning scores and three shock indices in early sepsis prediction in the emergency department

BACKGROUND:This study aimed to evaluate the discriminatory performance of 11 vital sign-based early warning scores(EWSs)and three shock indices in early sepsis prediction in the emergency department(ED).METHODS:We performed a retrospective study on consecutive adult patients with an infection over 3 months in a public ED in Hong Kong.The primary outcome was sepsis(Sepsis-3 definition)within 48 h of ED presentation.Using c-statistics and the DeLong test,we compared 11 EWSs,including the National Early Warning Score 2(NEWS2),Modified Early Warning Score,and Worthing Physiological Scoring System(WPS),etc.,and three shock indices(the shock index[SI],modified shock index[MSI],and diastolic shock index[DSI]),with Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome(SIRS)and quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment(qSOFA)in predicting the primary outcome,intensive care unit admission,and mortality at different time points.RESULTS:We analyzed 601 patients,of whom 166(27.6%)developed sepsis.NEWS2 had the highest point estimate(area under the receiver operating characteristic curve[AUROC]0.75,95%CI 0.70-0.79)and was significantly better than SIRS,qSOFA,other EWSs and shock indices,except WPS,at predicting the primary outcome.However,the pooled sensitivity and specificity of NEWS2≥5 for the prediction of sepsis were 0.45(95%CI 0.37-0.52)and 0.88(95%CI 0.85-0.91),respectively.The discriminatory performance of all EWSs and shock indices declined when used to predict mortality at a more remote time point.CONCLUSION:NEWS2 compared favorably with other EWSs and shock indices in early sepsis prediction but its low sensitivity at the usual cut-off point requires further modification for sepsis screening.