Machine learning for carbonate formation drilling: Mud loss prediction using seismic attributes and mud loss records

Due to the complexity and variability of carbonate formation leakage zones, lost circulation prediction and control is one of the major challenges of carbonate drilling. It raises well-control risks and production expenses. This research utilizes the H oilfield as an example, employs seismic features to analyze mud loss prediction, and produces a complete set of pre-drilling mud loss prediction solutions. Firstly, 16seismic attributes are calculated based on the post-stack seismic data, and the mud loss rate per unit footage is specified. The sample set is constructed by extracting each attribute from the seismic trace surrounding 15 typical wells, with a ratio of 8:2 between the training set and the test set. With the calibration results for mud loss rate per unit footage, the nonlinear mapping relationship between seismic attributes and mud loss rate per unit size is established using the mixed density network model.Then, the influence of the number of sub-Gausses and the uncertainty coefficient on the model's prediction is evaluated. Finally, the model is used in conjunction with downhole drilling conditions to assess the risk of mud loss in various layers and along the wellbore trajectory. The study demonstrates that the mean relative errors of the model for training data and test data are 6.9% and 7.5%, respectively, and that R2is 90% and 88%, respectively, for training data and test data. The accuracy and efficacy of mud loss prediction may be greatly enhanced by combining 16 seismic attributes with the mud loss rate per unit footage and applying machine learning methods. The mud loss prediction model based on the MDN model can not only predict the mud loss rate but also objectively evaluate the prediction based on the quality of the data and the model.

Tectonic Taphrogenesis and Paleoseismic Records from the Yishu Fault Zone in the Initial Stage of the Caledonian Movement

The Yishu fault zone （mid-segment of the Tanlu fault zone） was formed in the Presinian. Periodic tectonic activities and strong seismic events have occurred along the fault zone. During the initial stage of the Caledonian Movement, with the proceeding of the marine transgression from the Yishu paleo-channel to the western Shandong, uneven thick sediments, composed mainly of sand, mud and carbonates of littoral, lagoon, and neritic facies, were deposited in the Yishu fault zone and western Shandong, and constructed the bottom part of the Lower Cambrian consisting of the Liguan and Zhushadong formations. Through field observations and the lab-examinations, various paleoseismic records have been discovered in the Liguan Formation and the Zhushadong Formations of the Yishu fault zone and its vicinity, including some layers with syn-sedimentary deformation structures that were triggered by strong earthquakes （i.e. seismite, seismo-olistostrome, and seismo-turbidite）. Paleoseismic records developed in the Zhushadong Formation are mainly seismites with soft-sediment deformation structures, such as liquefied diapir, small liquefied-carbonate lime-mud volcano, liquefied vein, liquefied breccia, convolute deformation （seismic fold）, graded fault, soft siliceous vein, and deformation stromatolite, as well as seismites with brittle deformation structures of semiconsolidated sediments. Paleoseismic records preserved in the Liguan Formation are not only seismo-olistostrome with a slump fold, load structure, and ball-and-pillows, but also seismo-turbidite with convolution bedding, graded bedding and wavy-bedding. However, in the western Shandong area, the closer to the Yishu fault zone, the greater the thickness of the Liguan Formation and the Zhushadong Formation, the greater the number and type of layers with paleoseismic records, and the higher the earthquake intensity reflected by associations of seismic records. This evidence indicates that tectonic taphrogenesis accompanied by strong earthquake events occurred in the Yishu fault zone during the initial stage of the Caledonian Movement, which embodied the break-up of the Sino-Korean Plate along the Paleo-Tanlu fault zone at that time.

Introduction to a recently released dataset entitled CSNCD:A Comprehensive Dataset of Chinese Seismic Network

China and its adjacent regions are heavily affected by earthquake disasters,which has led to strong demand and vigorous development of the Chinese Seismic Network(CSN).Since 2004,China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC)has been authorized by China Earthquake Administration(CEA)to take charge of CSN management,mainly observing product output and quality control.

Response spectrum of seismic design code for zones lack of near-fault strong earthquake records

It was shown from the study on the recently near-fault earthquake ground motions that the near-fault effects were seldom considered in the existing Chinese seismic code. Referring to the UBC97 design concept for near-fault factors, based on the collected world-widely free-site records of near-fault earthquakes ground motions classified by earthquake magnitude and site condition, the attenuation relationship expressions of the acceleration spectrum demand at the key points within the long period and moderate period were established in term of the earthquake magnitude and the site condition. Furthermore, the near-fault factors＇ expressions about the earthquake magnitude and the fault distance were deduced for the area lack of near-fault strong earthquake records. Based on the current Chinese Building Seismic Design Code, the near-fault effect factors and the modified design spectral curves, which were valuable for the seismic design, were proposed to analyze the seismic response of structures.

Probabilistic analysis of tunnel face seismic stability in layered rock masses using Polynomial Chaos Kriging metamodel

Face stability is an essential issue in tunnel design and construction.Layered rock masses are typical and ubiquitous;uncertainties in rock properties always exist.In view of this,a comprehensive method,which combines the Upper bound Limit analysis of Tunnel face stability,the Polynomial Chaos Kriging,the Monte-Carlo Simulation and Analysis of Covariance method(ULT-PCK-MA),is proposed to investigate the seismic stability of tunnel faces.A two-dimensional analytical model of ULT is developed to evaluate the virtual support force based on the upper bound limit analysis.An efficient probabilistic analysis method PCK-MA based on the adaptive Polynomial Chaos Kriging metamodel is then implemented to investigate the parameter uncertainty effects.Ten input parameters,including geological strength indices,uniaxial compressive strengths and constants for three rock formations,and the horizontal seismic coefficients,are treated as random variables.The effects of these parameter uncertainties on the failure probability and sensitivity indices are discussed.In addition,the effects of weak layer position,the middle layer thickness and quality,the tunnel diameter,the parameters correlation,and the seismic loadings are investigated,respectively.The results show that the layer distributions significantly influence the tunnel face probabilistic stability,particularly when the weak rock is present in the bottom layer.The efficiency of the proposed ULT-PCK-MA is validated,which is expected to facilitate the engineering design and construction.

Seismic Performance Assessment of Reinforced Concrete Box Culverts under Near and Far Fault Seismic Ground Motion Records

Studying the critical response characteristics of reinforced concrete box culverts with diverse geometrical configurations under seismic excitations is a necessary step to develop a reasonable design method. In this work, numerical analysis and assessment of reinforced concrete box culverts for seismic loading in addition to standard static loading from dead and live loads is conducted, aiming to highlight the critical difference in the seismic performances between two and three cell box culverts under near and far-fault ground motion. The results show how and where the seismic loading alters the responses of seismic loading of the models including the effect on safety and failure. The geometrical configurations of the culvert combined with the loading scenarios also significantly influence the magnitude and distribution of the seismic responses. The findings of this work shed light on the critical role of the geometrical configurations and shaking event in the seismic responses of reinforced concrete box culverts and this procedure can be applied as seismic assessment method to any culvert shape, size, and material.

An adaptive physics-informed deep learning method for pore pressure prediction using seismic data

Accurate prediction of formation pore pressure is essential to predict fluid flow and manage hydrocarbon production in petroleum engineering.Recent deep learning technique has been receiving more interest due to the great potential to deal with pore pressure prediction.However,most of the traditional deep learning models are less efficient to address generalization problems.To fill this technical gap,in this work,we developed a new adaptive physics-informed deep learning model with high generalization capability to predict pore pressure values directly from seismic data.Specifically,the new model,named CGP-NN,consists of a novel parametric features extraction approach(1DCPP),a stacked multilayer gated recurrent model(multilayer GRU),and an adaptive physics-informed loss function.Through machine training,the developed model can automatically select the optimal physical model to constrain the results for each pore pressure prediction.The CGP-NN model has the best generalization when the physicsrelated metricλ=0.5.A hybrid approach combining Eaton and Bowers methods is also proposed to build machine-learnable labels for solving the problem of few labels.To validate the developed model and methodology,a case study on a complex reservoir in Tarim Basin was further performed to demonstrate the high accuracy on the pore pressure prediction of new wells along with the strong generalization ability.The adaptive physics-informed deep learning approach presented here has potential application in the prediction of pore pressures coupled with multiple genesis mechanisms using seismic data.

Seismic performance evaluation of water supply pipes installed in a full-scale RC frame structure based on a shaking table test

As an important part of nonstructural components,the seismic response of indoor water supply pipes deserves much attention.This paper presents shaking table test research on water supply pipes installed in a full-scale reinforced concrete(RC)frame structure.Different material pipes and different methods for penetrating the reinforced concrete floors are combined to evaluate the difference in seismic performance.Floor response spectra and pipe acceleration amplification factors based on test data are discussed and compared with code provisions.A seismic fragility study of displacement demand is conducted based on numerical simulation.The acceleration response and displacement response of different combinations are compared.The results show that the combination of different pipe materials and different passing-through methods can cause obvious differences in the seismic response of indoor riser pipes.

Time-domain dynamic constitutive model suitable for mucky soil site seismic response

Soil nonlinear behavior displays noticeable effects on the site seismic response.This study proposes a new functional expression of the skeleton curve to replace the hyperbolic skeleton curve.By integrating shear modulus and combining the dynamic skeleton curve and the damping degradation coefficient,the constitutive equation of the logarithmic dynamic skeleton can be obtained,which considers the damping effect in a soil dynamics problem.Based on the finite difference method and the multi-transmitting boundary condition,a 1D site seismic response analysis program called Soilresp1D has been developed herein and used to analyze the time-domain seismic response in three types of sites.At the same time,this study also provides numerical simulation results based on the hyperbolic constitutive model and the equivalent linear method.The results verify the rationality of the new soil dynamic constitutive model.It can analyze the mucky soil site nonlinear seismic response,reflecting the deformation characteristics and damping effect of the silty soil.The hysteresis loop area is more extensive,and the residual strain is evident.

Monitoring seismicity in the southern Sichuan Basin using a machine learning workflow

Monitoring seismicity in real time provides significant benefits for timely earthquake warning and analyses.In this study,we propose an automatic workflow based on machine learning(ML)to monitor seismicity in the southern Sichuan Basin of China.This workflow includes coherent event detection,phase picking,and earthquake location using three-component data from a seismic network.By combining Phase Net,we develop an ML-based earthquake location model called Phase Loc,to conduct real-time monitoring of the local seismicity.The approach allows us to use synthetic samples covering the entire study area to train Phase Loc,addressing the problems of insufficient data samples,imbalanced data distribution,and unreliable labels when training with observed data.We apply the trained model to observed data recorded in the southern Sichuan Basin,China,between September 2018 and March 2019.The results show that the average differences in latitude,longitude,and depth are 5.7 km,6.1 km,and 2 km,respectively,compared to the reference catalog.Phase Loc combines all available phase information to make fast and reliable predictions,even if only a few phases are detected and picked.The proposed workflow may help real-time seismic monitoring in other regions as well.

Multiple phases analysis of deep seismic sounding records in North China Craton

The North China Craton(NCC)is a key region to study the destruction of the ancient craton.Two groups of phases(denoted as"Pw1"and"Pw2"),which are parallel to the PmP phase reflected from the Moho discontinuity and the PLP phase reflected from the Lithosphere and Asthenosphere Boundary(LAB)respectively,are found on the record section of the Rongcheng-XinzhouAlxa long-range deep seismic sounding profile.The nature of the two phases is still unclear,although they are clearly observable and reverberant.In this paper,we use travel time inversion and amplitude forward modelling to fit the reflected and refracted phases in the lithosphere.The results show:(1)the Pw1 is a multiple reflected phase which is successively reflected by the crystalline basement,the surface,the Moho and then finally received on the surface;(2)the Pw2 phase is also a multiple reflected phase successively reflected by the crystalline basement,the surface,the LAB interface and then received on the surface.We conclude that the significant velocity difference between the thick sedimentary cover and the crystalline basement in the North China rifted basin may be the main reason for generating the multiple reflections.Furthermore,the two multiple reflections provide potent constraints on the lithospheric velocity model,and constitute seismological evidence for the lithospheric thinning in the eastern NCC.

Geological inferences about the upper crustal configuration of the Medellin-Aburra Valley(Colombia)using strong motion seismic records

In regions of complex geology and tectonic assembly, strong motion seismic arrival time records can be used to test the plausibility of existing hypothesis about the origin of lithological and tectonic features and how they are related in space and time. In this study we use differential travel time residuals at some strong motion accelerographic stations in the Medellin-Aburra Valley, in the northern Central Cordillera of the Colombian Andes, to discuss some aspects of the geological configuration. We based our work on the hypothesis that the differences between seismic travel time residuals among pairs of stations are a function of the differences in the surface geology and the near-surface upper crustal configuration. Our results are consistent with the volcanic rocks of the Quebradagrande Complex being less mafic, more weathered or more tectonically affected than previously thought, with the presence of a relatively thin dunite body on top of the metamorphic basement, and with a large lateral heterogeneity in the mainly mafic San Diego Stock.

Dynamically triggered seismicity on a tectonic scale:A review

Earthquakes triggered by dynamic disturbances have been confirmed by numerous observations and experiments.In the past several decades,earthquake triggering has attracted increasing attention of scholars in relation to exploring the mechanism of earthquake triggering,earthquake prediction,and the desire to use the mechanism of earthquake triggering to reduce,prevent,or trigger earthquakes.Natural earthquakes and large‐scale explosions are the most common sources of dynamic disturbances that trigger earthquakes.In the past several decades,some models have been developed,including static,dynamic,quasi‐static,and other models.Some reviews have been published,but explosiontriggered seismicity was not included.In recent years,some new results on earthquake triggering have emerged.Therefore,this paper presents a new review to reflect the new results and include the content of explosion‐triggered earthquakes for the reference of scholars in this area.Instead of a complete review of the relevant literature,this paper primarily focuses on the main aspects of dynamic earthquake triggering on a tectonic scale and makes some suggestions on issues that need to be resolved in this area in the future.

Potential of the Arkhangelsk seismic network for European Arctic monitoring

The Arkhangelsk Seismic Network(ASN)of the N.Laverov Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences,founded in 2003,includes 10 permanent seismic stations located on the coasts of the White,Barents,and Kara Seas and on the Arctic archipelagos of Novaya Zemlya,Franz Josef Land,and Severnaya Zemlya.The network is registered with the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks and the International Seismological Center.We used not only ASN data to process earthquakes but also the waveforms of various international seismic stations.The 13,000 seismic events were registered using ASN data for 2012-2022,and for 5,500 of them,we determined the parameters of the earthquake epicenters from the European Arctic.The spatial distribution of epicenters shows that the ASN monitors not only the main seismically active zones but also weak seismicity on the shelf of the Barents and Kara Seas.The representative magnitude of ASN was ML,rep=3.5.The level of microseismic noise has seasonal variations that affect the registration capabilities of each station included in the ASN and the overall sensitivity of the network as a whole.In summer,the sensitivity of the ASN decreased owing to the increasing microseismic and ambient noises,whereas in winter,the sensitivity of the ASN increased significantly because of the decrease.

Resilience-incorporated seismic risk assessment of precast concrete frames with“dry”connections

A resilience-incorporated risk assessment framework is proposed and demonstrated in this study to manifest the advantageous seismic resilience of precast concrete frame(PCF)structures with“dry”connections in terms of their low damage and rapid recovery.The framework integrates various uncertainties in the seismic hazard,fragility,capacity,demand,loss functions,and post-earthquake recovery.In this study,the PCF structures are distinguished from ordinary reinforced concrete frame(RCF)structures by characterizing multiple limit states for the PCF based on its unique damage mechanisms.Accordingly,probabilistic story-wise pushover analyses are performed to yield story-wise capacities for the predefined limit states.In the seismic resilience analysis,a step-wise recovery model is proposed to idealize the functionality recovery process,with separate considerations of the repair and non-repair events.The recovery model leverages the economic loss and downtime to delineate the stochastic post-earthquake recovery curves for the resilience loss estimation.As such,contingencies in the probabilistic post-earthquake repairs are incorporated and the empirical judgments on the recovery parameters are largely circumvented.The proposed framework is demonstrated through a comparative study between two“dry”connected PCFs and one RCF designed as alternative structural systems for a prototype building.The results from the risk quantification indicate that the PCFs show reduced loss hazards and lower expected losses relative to the RCF.Particularly,the PCF equipped with energy dissipation devices at the“dry”connections largely reduces the expected economic loss,downtime,and resilience loss by 29%,56%,and 60%,respectively,compared to the RCF.

The 2023 Turkey earthquake doublet: Earthquake relocation, seismic tomography, and stress field inversion

On February 6,2023,two earthquakes with magnitudes of M_(W) 7.8 and M_(W) 7.5 struck southeastern Turkey,causing significant casualties and economic losses.These seismic events occurred along the East Anatolian Fault Zone,a convergent boundary between the Arabian Plate and the Anatolian Subplate.In this study,we analyze the M_(W) 7.8 and M_(W) 7.5 earthquakes by comparing their aftershock relocations,tomographic images,and stress field inversions.The earthquakes were localized in the upper crust and exhibited steep dip angles.Furthermore,the aftershocks occurred either close to the boundaries of low and high P-wave velocity anomaly zones or within the low P-wave velocity anomaly zones.The East Anatolia Fault,associated with the M_(W) 7.8 earthquake,and the SürgüFault,related to the M_(W) 7.5 earthquake,predominantly experienced shear stress.However,their western sections experienced a combination of strike-slip and tensile stresses in addition to shear stress.The ruptures of the M_(W) 7.8 and M_(W) 7.5 earthquakes appear to have bridged a seismic gap that had seen sparse seismicity over the past 200 years prior to the 2023 Turkey earthquake sequence.

A reweighted damped singular spectrum analysis method for robust seismic noise suppression

(Multichannel)Singular spectrum analysis is considered as one of the most effective methods for seismic incoherent noise suppression.It utilizes the low-rank feature of seismic signal and regards the noise suppression as a low-rank reconstruction problem.However,in some cases the seismic geophones receive some erratic disturbances and the amplitudes are dramatically larger than other receivers.The presence of this kind of noise,called erratic noise,makes singular spectrum analysis(SSA)reconstruction unstable and has undesirable effects on the final results.We robustify the low-rank reconstruction of seismic data by a reweighted damped SSA(RD-SSA)method.It incorporates the damped SSA,an improved version of SSA,into a reweighted framework.The damping operator is used to weaken the artificial disturbance introduced by the low-rank projection of both erratic and random noise.The central idea of the RD-SSA method is to iteratively approximate the observed data with the quadratic norm for the first iteration and the Tukeys bisquare norm for the rest iterations.The RD-SSA method can suppress seismic incoherent noise and keep the reconstruction process robust to the erratic disturbance.The feasibility of RD-SSA is validated via both synthetic and field data examples.

Detailed seismic zoning of the East Kazakhstan region in the Republic of Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is currently drafting new construction regulations that comply with the major provisions of the Eurocodes.Such regulations are created on the basis of seismic zoning maps of various degrees of detail,developed by our Institute of Seismology using a new methodological approach for Kazakhstan.The article is about creating the first normative map of the Detailed Seismic Zoning on a probabilistic foundation for the Republic of Kazakhstan’s East Kazakhstan region.We carried out the probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard using a methodology consistent with the main provisions of Eurocode 8and updated compared with that used in developing maps of Kazakhstan’s General Seismic Zoning and seismic microzoning of Almaty.The most thorough and current data accessible for the area under consideration were combined with contemporary analytical techniques.Updates have been done to not only the databases being used but also the way seismic sources were shown,including active faults now.On a scale of 1:1000000,precise seismic zoning maps of the East Kazakhstan region were created for two probabilities of exceedance:10%and 2%in 50 years in terms of peak ground accelerations and macroseismic intensities.The obtained seismic hazard distribution is generally consistent with the General Seismic Zoning of Kazakhstan’s previous findings.However,because active faults were included and a thoroughly revised catalog was used,there are more pronounced zones of increased danger along the fault in the western part of the region.In the west of the territory,acceleration values also increased due to a more accurate consideration of seismotectonic conditions.Zoning maps are the basis for developing new state building regulations of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

Hcable for Time-Lapse Seismic Monitoring of Marine Carbon Capture and Storage

To ensure project safety and secure public support, an integrated and comprehensive monitoring program is needed within a carbon capture and storage(CCS) project. Monitoring can be done using many well-established techniques from various fields, and the seismic method proves to be the crucial one. This method is widely used to determine the CO_(2) distribution, image the plume development, and quantitatively estimate the concentration. Because both the CO_(2) distribution and the potential migration pathway can be spatially small scale, high resolution for seismic imaging is demanded. However, obtaining a high-resolution image of a subsurface structure in marine settings is difficult. Herein, we introduce the novel Hcable(Harrow-like cable system) technique, which may be applied to offshore CCS monitoring. This technique uses a highfrequency source(the dominant frequency>100 Hz) to generate seismic waves and a combination of a long cable and several short streamers to receive seismic waves. Ultrahigh-frequency seismic images are achieved through the processing of Hcable seismic data. Hcable is then applied in a case study to demonstrate its detailed characterization for small-scale structures. This work reveals that Hcable is a promising tool for timelapse seismic monitoring of oceanic CCS.

On electro-acoustic characteristics of a marine broadband sparker for seismic exploration

The construction of major marine infrastructure projects and the exploration and development of deep-sea mineral resources require fine imaging of seabed strata and structures.The highresolution marine seismic exploration based on a high broadband sparker source is an important approach to reveal seabed stratum and reservoir structure,and identify geohazard.To optimize the performance of sparker seismic source,we investigated the electro-acoustic characteristics of spark discharge under conditions of different charging voltages and electrode numbers.Results show that the sound source level increased with the increase of the charging voltage,whereas the main frequency decreased when the charging voltage increases.In addition,it was found that the charging capacitance had more obvious influence on the main frequency than the sound source level did.Although the load energy decreased with increasing electrode number,the sound source level still increased but the main frequency decreased.Meanwhile,the primary to bubble(P/B)ratio increased with the increase of the electrode number.To gain a deeper insight into the electro-acoustic characteristics,we investigate the relationship between sound source level and power peak,from which a good correlation was observed.A more practical statistical analysis on the rise rate of current was processed,and a perfect logarithmic function was derived.Furthermore,we found that the main frequency was most possibly subjected to the electrical energy,especially the charging energy per electrode.The results indicate that the charging energy per electrode less than 10 J could increase the main frequency to above 300 Hz.At last,the main frequency could be reduced to 20 Hz when the charging energy of a single-electrode discharge was enhanced to over 4 kJ.This study shall be helpful in developing a sparker seismic source and improving the performance for marine engineering exploration and geohazard assessment.