Identifying the sensitive area in adaptive observation for predicting the upstream Kuroshio transport variation in a 3-D ocean model

Using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) approach, sensitive areas of adaptive observation for predicting the seasonal reduction of the upstream Kuroshio transport(UKT) were investigated in the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS). The vertically integrated energy scheme was utilized to identify sensitive areas based on two factors: the specific energy scheme and sensitive area size. Totally 27 sensitive areas, characterized by three energy schemes and nine sensitive area sizes, were evaluated. The results show that the total energy(TE) scheme was the most effective because it includes both the kinetic and potential components of CNOP. Generally, larger sensitive areas led to better predictions. The size of 0.5% of the model domain was chosen after balancing the effectiveness and efficiency of adaptive observation. The optimal sensitive area OSen was determined accordingly. Sensitivity experiments on OSen were then conducted, and the following results were obtained:(1) In OSen, initial errors with CNOP or CNOP-like patterns were more likely to yield worse predictions, and the CNOP pattern was the most unstable.(2) Initial errors in OSen rather than in other regions tended to cause larger prediction errors. Therefore, adaptive observation in OSen can be more beneficial for predicting the seasonal reduction of UKT.

An analysis on possibility of intelligent speed adaptation in terms of drivers' consciousness

Intelligent speed adaptation （ISA） is considered as an effective measure to reduce number of traffic accidents in the field of intelligent transportation systems （ITS）. On the other hand, its effects for traffic safety are still doubted by many people. To make the possibility analysis, an experiment is conducted by using driving simulator. Regarding ISA ap- proaches, there are three modes： mandatory, voluntary and advisory. Among them, the advisory type seems to be the easiest one to introduce. Therefore, we focus on the advisory mode in this study by considering ISA just at the beginning stage in Japan. The experiment consists of four steps： without ISA, ISA using pictures, ISA using voices and again without ISA. The outputs obtained from the driving simulator are analyzed combined with the consciousness of the participants. The experiment shows that the ISA can improve recognition of speed limitation especially for people who have random rambling or looking aside tendency. Furthermore, the ISA especially when using voices can contribute in changing the consciousness of people who are aggressive in driving. Their driving speeds can reduce so that positive effects on traffic safety can be concluded.