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急性弛缓性麻痹(Acute Flaccid Paralysis,AFP)病例监测系统的运转情况及脊髓灰质炎(脊灰)病例数 被引量:1
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作者 褚尧竹 《中国疫苗和免疫》 CAS 2014年第5期424-424,共1页
关键词 急性弛缓性麻痹 病例监测 acute flaccid paralysis AFP 脊灰 脊髓灰质炎 小儿麻痹 肠道病毒感染 运转情况
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Corrigendum to“Silent circulation of poliovirus in small populations”[Infectious Disease Modeling 2(2017)431e440]
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作者 Celeste Vallejo James Keesling +1 位作者 James Koopman Burton Singer 《Infectious Disease Modelling》 2018年第1期136-138,共3页
An error in a previous publication in the calculation of the average age at first infection for the model is corrected here.The average age at first infection for the effective contact rates used to generate the data ... An error in a previous publication in the calculation of the average age at first infection for the model is corrected here.The average age at first infection for the effective contact rates used to generate the data ranges from 1.2 to 3.3 years of age instead of 3e5 years of age as advertised in the previous version of the paper.This change has an effect on the force of infection generated by this model.In this corrigendum,we demonstrate the correct method to calculate the average age at first infection for the model.We compare the forces of infection that correspond to these ages in our model with the forces of infection in other endemic populations.We show that the modified age range corresponds to forces of infection which are higher than those that are known to exist in historical studies of polioendemic regions.Thus,the results in the paper have limited applicability to real-world endemic situations. 展开更多
关键词 POLIOVIRUS Silent circulation acute flaccid paralysis surveillance Microsimulation model Gillespie algorithm
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Silent circulation of poliovirus in small populations
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作者 Celeste Vallejo James Keesling +1 位作者 James Koopman Burton Singer 《Infectious Disease Modelling》 2017年第4期431-440,共10页
Background:Small populations that have been isolated by conflict make vaccination and surveillance difficult,threatening polio eradication.Silent circulation is caused by asymptomatic infections.It is currently not cl... Background:Small populations that have been isolated by conflict make vaccination and surveillance difficult,threatening polio eradication.Silent circulation is caused by asymptomatic infections.It is currently not clear whether the dynamics of waning immunity also influence the risk of silent circulation in the absence of vaccination.Such circulation can,nevertheless,be present following a declaration of elimination as a result of inadequate acute flaccid paralysis surveillance(AFPS)or environmental surveillance(ES).Methods:We have constructed a stochastic model to understand how stochastic effects alter the ability of small populations to sustain virus circulation in the absence of vaccination.We analyzed how the stochastic process determinants of the duration of silent circulation that could have been detected by ES were affected by R0,waning dynamics,population size,and AFPS sensitivity in a discrete individual stochastic model with homogeneous contagiousness and random mixing.We measured the duration of silent circulation both by the interval between detected acute flaccid paralysis(AFP)cases and the duration of circulation until elimination.Results:As R0 increased and population size increased,the interval between detected AFP cases and the duration of circulation until elimination increased.As AFPS detection rates decreased,the interval between detected AFP cases increased.There was up to a 22%chance of silent circulation lasting for more than 3 years with 100%AFP detection.The duration of silent circulation was not affected by the waning immunity dynamics.Conclusion:We demonstrated that small populations have the potential to sustain prolonged silent circulation.Surveillance in these areas should be intensified before declaring elimination.To further validate these conclusions,it is necessary to realistically relax the simplifying assumptions about mixing and waning. 展开更多
关键词 POLIOVIRUS Silent circulation acute flaccid paralysis surveillance Microsimulation model Gillespie algorithm
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