Influence of Summer Monsoon on Asymmetric Bimodal Pattern of Tropical Cyclogenesis Frequency over the Bay of Bengal

The influence of summer monsoon on tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) is explored using an empirical genesis potential (GP) index. The annual cycle of cyclogenesis frequency over the BoB shows an asymmetric bimodal pattern with the maximum genesis number appearing in late October and the second largest in early May. The two peaks correspond to the withdrawal and onset of the BoB summer monsoon, respectively. The semimonthly GP index calculated without TC days over the BoB is consistent with TC genesis frequency, indicating that the index captures the monsoon-induced changes in the environment that are responsible for the seasonal variation of TC genesis frequency. Of the four environmental variables (i.e., low-level vorticity, mid-level relative humidity, potential intensity, and vertical wind shear) that enter into the GP index, the potential intensity makes the largest contribution to the bimodal distribution, followed by vertical wind shear due to small wind speed during the summer monsoon onset and withdrawal. The difference in TC genesis frequency between autumn and late spring is mainly owing to the relative humid-ity difference because a divergence (convergence) of horizontal moisture flux associated with cold dry northerlies (warm wet wester-lies) dominates the BoB in late spring (autumn).

ANALYSIS OF “BIMODAL PATTERN” STORM ACTIVITY CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BAY OF BENGAL

Storms that occur at the Bay of Bengal(Bo B) are of a bimodal pattern, which is different from that of the other sea areas. By using the NCEP, SST and JTWC data, the causes of the bimodal pattern storm activity of the Bo B are diagnosed and analyzed in this paper. The result shows that the seasonal variation of general atmosphere circulation in East Asia has a regulating and controlling impact on the Bo B storm activity, and the "bimodal period" of the storm activity corresponds exactly to the seasonal conversion period of atmospheric circulation. The minor wind speed of shear spring and autumn contributed to the storm, which was a crucial factor for the generation and occurrence of the"bimodal pattern"storm activity in the Bo B. The analysis on sea surface temperature(SST) shows that the SSTs of all the year around in the Bo B area meet the conditions required for the generation of tropical cyclones(TCs). However,the SSTs in the central area of the bay are higher than that of the surrounding areas in spring and autumn, which facilitates the occurrence of a "two-peak"storm activity pattern. The genesis potential index(GPI) quantifies and reflects the environmental conditions for the generation of the Bo B storms. For GPI, the intense low-level vortex disturbance in the troposphere and high-humidity atmosphere are the sufficient conditions for storms, while large maximum wind velocity of the ground vortex radius and small vertical wind shear are the necessary conditions of storms.