Progress in the Development and Application of Climate Ocean Models and Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Models in China

A review is presented about the development and application of climate ocean models and oceanatmosphere coupled models developed in China as well as a review of climate variability and climate change studies performed with these models. While the history of model development is briefly reviewed, emphasis has been put on the achievements made in the last five years. Advances in model development are described along with a summary on scientific issues addressed by using these models. The focus of the review is the climate ocean models and the associated coupled models, including both global and regional models, developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The progress of either coupled model development made by other institutions or climate modeling using internationally developed models also is reviewed.

A review of progress in coupled ocean-atmosphere model developments for ENSO studies in China

El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) is the strongest interannual signal that is producedby basinscale processes in the tropical Pacific,with significant effects on weather and climate worldwide.In the past,extensive and intensive international efforts have been devoted to coupled model developments for ENSO studies.A hierarchy of coupled ocean-atmo sphere models has been formulated;in terms of their complexity,they can be categorized into intermediate coupled models(ICMs),hybrid coupled models(HCMs),and fully coupled general circulation models(CGCMs).ENSO modeling has made significant progress over the past decades,reaching a stage where coupled models can now be used to successfully predict ENSO events 6 months to one year in advance.Meanwhile,ENSO exhibits great diversity and complexity as observed in nature,which still cannot be adequately captured by current state-of-the-art coupled models,presenting a challenge to ENSO modeling.We primarily reviewed the long-term efforts in ENSO modeling continually and steadily made at different institutions in China;some selected representative examples are presented here to review the current status of ENSO model developments and applications,which have been actively pursued with noticeable progress being made recently.As ENSO simulations are very sensitive to model formulations and process representations etc.,dedicated efforts have been devoted to ENSO model developments and improvements.Now,different ocean-atmosphere coupled models have been available in China,which exhibit good model performances and have already had a variety of applications to climate modeling,including the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Nevertheless,large biases and uncertainties still exist in ENSO simulations and predictions,and there are clear rooms for their improvements,which are still an active area of researches and applications.Here,model performances of ENSO simulations are assessed in terms of advantages and disadvantages with these differently formulated coupled models,pinpointing to the areas where they need to be further improved for ENSO studies.These analyses provide valuable guidance for future improvements in ENSO simulations and predictions.

Primary Reasoning behind the Double ITCZ Phenomenon in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model

This paper investigates the processes behind the double ITCZ phenomenon, a common problem in Coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Models (CGCMs), using a CGCM—FGCM-0 (Flexible General Circulation Model, version 0). The double ITCZ mode develops rapidly during the ?rst two years of the integration and becomes a perennial phenomenon afterwards in the model. By way of Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) for SST, sea surface pressure, and sea surface wind, some air-sea interactions are analyzed. These interactions prompt the anomalous signals that appear at the beginning of the coupling to develop rapidly. There are two possible reasons, proved by sensitivity experiments: (1) the overestimated east-west gradient of SST in the equatorial Paci?c in the ocean spin-up process, and (2) the underestimated amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast in CCM3 (the Community Climate Model, Version Three). The overestimated east-west gradient of SST brings the anomalous equatorial easterly. The anomalous easterly, a?ected by the Coriolis force in the Southern Hemisphere, turns into an anomalous westerly in a broad area south of the equator and is enhanced by atmospheric anomalous circulation due to the underestimated amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast simulated by CCM3. The anomalous westerly leads to anomalous warm advection that makes the SST warm in the southeast Paci?c. The double ITCZ phenomenon in the CGCM is a result of a series of nonlocal and nonlinear adjustment processes in the coupled system, which can be traced to the uncoupled models, oceanic component, and atmospheric component. The zonal gradient of the equatorial SST is too large in the ocean component and the amount of low-level stratus over the Peruvian coast is too low in the atmosphere component.

THE EFFECTS OF TIBETAN PLATEAU ON THE ANOMALOUS VARIATION OF ASIAN MONSOON IN A COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM

Experimental predictions with a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model(L9R15 AGCM-ZC ocean model)were performed for the 1986/87 El Nino event and the 1988/89 La Nina event with and without the Tibetan Plateau respectively(called TP FORC and NTP FORC hereinafter). Comparison shows that,to some extent,the existence of the Tibetan Plateau orography weakens or restrains(strengthens or facilitates)the formation of the anomalous circulation of Asian monsoon during El Nino(La Nina)period.Opposite results are found in the uncoupled AGCM simulation.

Vector radiative transfer numerical model of coupled ocean-atmosphere system using matrix-operator method

A vector radiative transfer numerical model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is developed based on the matrix-operator method, which is named PCOART. Using the Fourier analysis, the vector radiative transfer equation (VRTE) is separated into a set of equations depending only on the observa-tion zenith angle. Using the Gaussian-Quadrature method, VRTE is finally transferred into the matrix equation solved by the adding-doubling method. According to the reflective and refractive properties of the ocean-atmosphere interface, the vector radiative transfer numerical model of the ocean and at-mosphere is coupled in PCOART. Compared with the exact Rayleigh scattering look-up tables of MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), it is shown that PCOART is an exactly numerical model, and the processing methods of the multi-scattering and polarization are correct. Also, validated with the standard problems of the radiative transfer in water, it is shown that PCOART can be used to calculate the underwater radiative transfer problems. Therefore, PCOART is a useful tool for exactly calculating the vector radiative transfer of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, which can be used to study the polarization properties of the radiance in the whole ocean-atmosphere system and the remote sensing of the atmosphere and ocean.

Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models in LASG/IAP

Coupled ocean-atmospheric general circulation models are the only tools to quantitatively simulate the climate system. Since the end of the 1980s, a group of scientists in the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), have been working to develop a global OGCM and a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modei (CGCM). Prom the original flux anomaly-coupling modei developed in the beginning of the 1990s to the latest directly-coupling modei, LASG scientists have developed four global coupled GCMs. This study summarizes the development history of these models and describes the third and fourth coupled GCMs and selected applications. Strengths and weaknesses of these models are highlighted.

The Interannual Variability of Climate in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

In this paper, the interannual variability simulated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modelof the institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP CGCM) in 40 year integrations is analyzed, and compared with that bythe corresponding IAP AGCM which uses the climatic sea surface temperature as the boundary condition in 25 yearintegrations.The mean climatic states of January and July simulated by IAP CGCM are in good agreement with that by IAPAGCM, i.e., no serious 'climate drift' occurs in the CGCM simulation. A comparison of the results from AGCM andCGCM indicates that the standard deviation of the monthly averaged sea level pressure simulated by IAP CGCM ismuch greater than that by IAP AGCM in tropical region. In addition, both Southern Oscillation (SO) and NorthAtlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be found in the CGCM simulation for January, but these two oscillations do not existin the AGCM simulation.The interannual variability of climate may be classified into two typest one is the variation of the annual mean,another is the variation of the annual amplitude. The ocean-atmosphere interaction mainly increases the first type ofvariability. By means of the rotated EOF, the most important patterns corresponding to the two types of interannualvariability are found to have different spatial and temporal characteristics.

The Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Regimes and East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) Activity

In this paper, ocean-atmosphere coupled regimes are identified on the basis of SVD analysis, cluster analysis and composite analysis. The coupled regimes in cold seasons are identified as the clusters of the ocean-atmosphere coupled states in a low dimensional phase space spanned by the first four SVD modes. Three coupled regimes are found. The first two coupled regimes reflect the ENSO episodes and the accompanying PNA patterns. The third regime, i.e., EAWM regime, is characterized by the strong EAWM activity and the specific SST anomaly. The composite analysis gives further evidences to the identification of EAWM regime and also demonstrates the dynamical process of its formation. The anomaly pattern of the tropical Pacific SSTA in the strong EAWM year differs significantly from that of the La Nina year.

THE IMPACT OF INITIAL FORCED WIND ON THE PREDICTABILITY OF THE ZEBIAK-CANE COUPLED OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE MODEL

With simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA）, the difference between NCEP/NCAR 925hPa reanalysis wind stress anomaly （NCEPWSA） and FSU wind stress anomaly （FSUWSA） is analyzed, and the prediction abilities of Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model （ZC coupled model） with NCEPWSA and FSUWSA serving respectively as initialization wind are compared. The results are as follows. The distribution feature of NCEPWSA matches better with that of the observed SSTA than counterpart of FSUWSA both in 1980s and in 1990s; The ZC ocean model has a better skill under the forcing of NCEPWSA than that of FSUWSA, especially in 1990s. Meanwhile, the forecast abilities of the ZC coupled model in 1990s as well as in 1980s have been improved employing NCEPWSA as initialization wind instead of FSUWSA. Particularly, it succeeded in predicting 1997/1998 E1 Nino 6 to 8 months ahead, further analysis shows that on the antecedent and onset stages of the 1997/1998 E1 Nino event, the horizontal cold and warm distribution characteristics of the simulated SSTA from ZC ocean model, with NCEPWSA forcing compared to FSUWSA forcing, match better with counterparts of the corresponding observed SSTA, whereby providing better predication initialization conditions for ZC coupled model, which, in turn, is favorable to improve the forecast ability of the coupled model.

A Flexible Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model

Based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model version 1 (CSM-1), a Flexible coupled General Circulation Model version 0 (FGCM-0) is developed in this study through replacing CSM-1’s oceanic component model with IAP L30T63 global oceanic general circulation model and some necessary modifications of the other component models. After the coupled model FGCM-0 is spun up for dozens of years, it has been run for 60 years without flux correction. The model does not only show the reasonable long-term mean climatology, but also reproduce a lot of features of the interannual variability of climate, e.g. the ENSO-like events in the tropical Pacific Ocean and the dipole mode pattern in the tropical Indian Ocean. Comparing FGCM-0 with the NCAR CSM-1, some common features are found, e.g. the overestimation of sea ice in the North Pacific and the simulated double ITCZ etc. The further analyses suggest that they may be attributed to errors in the atmospheric model.

A STUDY ON THE IMPACTS OF LATENT HEAT PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME ON PREDICTION SKILL OF ENSO WITH A SIMPLE OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE COUPLED MODEL

This study revises Weare＇s latent heat parameterization scheme and conducts an associated theoretic analysis. The revised Weare＇s scheme is found to present potentially better results than Zebiak＇s scheme. The Zebiak-Cane coupled ocean-atmosphere model, initialized by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research （NCEP/NCAR） reanalysis of wind stress anomaly at 925 hPa, is referred to as the ZCW coupled model. The atmosphere models of the ZCW coupled model that use Zebiak＇s scheme and the revised Weare＇s scheme are referred to as the ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, respectively. The coupled ocean-atmosphere models that use Zebiak＇s scheme and the revised Weare＇s scheme are referred to as the ZCWoand ZCWN coupled models, respectively. The simulations between the ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models and between the ZCW0 and ZCWN coupled models are analyzed. The results include： （1） The evolution of heat, meridional wind and divergence anomalies simulated by similar ZCW0 and ZCWN atmosphere models, although the magnitudes of the former are larger than those of the latter; （2） The prediction skill of the Nino3 index from 1982 to 1999 by the ZCWN coupled model shows improvement compared with those by the ZCW0 coupled model; （3） The analysis of E1 Nino events in 1982/1983, 1986/1987, and 1997/1998 and La Nifia events in 1984/1985, 1988/1989, and 1998/2000 suggests that the ZCWN coupled model is better than the ZCW0 coupled model in predicting warm event evolution and cold event generation. The results also show the disadvantage of the ZCWN coupled model for predicting E1 Nino.

The Role of the Kuroshio in the Winter North Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction: Comparison of a Coupled Model and Observations

A comparative study between the output of the Flexible Global Climate Model Version 1.0 （FGCM- 1.0） and the observations is performed. At 500 hPa, the geopotential height of FGCM is similar to the observations, but in the North Pacific the model gives lower values, and the differences are most significant over the northern boundary of the Pacific. In a net heat flux comparison, the spatial patterns of the two are similar in winter, but more heat loss appears to the east of Japan in FGCM than in COADS. On the interannual timescale, strong （weak） Kuroshio transports to the east of Taiwan lead the increasing （decreasing） net heat flux, which is centered over the Kuroshio Extension region, by 1-2 months, with low （high） pressure anomaly responses appearing at 500 hPa over the North Pacific （north of 25°N） in winter. The northward heat transport of the Kuroshio is one of the important heat sources to support the warming of the atmosphere by the ocean and the formation of the low pressure anomaly at 500 hPa over the North Pacific in winter.

ENSO Phase-Locking in an Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model FGCM-1.0

The mean climatology and the basic characteristics of the ENSO cycle simulated by a coupled model FGCM-1.0 are investigated in this study. Although with some common model biases as in other directly coupled models, FGCM-1.0 is capable of producing the interannual variability of the tropical Pacific, such as the ENSO phenomenon. The mechanism of the ENSO events in the coupled model can be explained by “delayed oscillator” and “recharge-discharge” hypotheses. Compared to the observations, the simulated ENSO events show larger amplitude with two distinctive types of phase-locking： one with its peak phase-locked to boreal winter and the other to boreal summer. These two types of events have a similar frequency of occurrence, but since the second type of event is seldom observed, it may be related to the biases of the coupled model. Analysis show that the heat content anomalies originate from the central south Pacific in the type of events peaking in boreal summer, which can be attributed to a different background climatology from the normal events. The mechanisms of their evolutions are also discussed.

Potential Predictability of Sea Surface Temperature in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM

Using the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model （FGOALS） version g1.11, a group of seasonal hindcasting experiments were carried out. In order to investigate the potential predictability of sea surface temperature （SST）, singular value decomposition （SVD） analyses were applied to extract dominant coupled modes between observed and predicated SST from the hindcasting experiments in this study. The fields discussed are sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Pacific basin （20~0S-20~0N, 120~0E- 80~0W）, respectively starting in four seasons from 1982 to 2005. On the basis of SVD analysis, the simulated pattern was replaced with the corresponding observed pattern to reconstruct SST anomaly fields to improve the ability of the simulation. The predictive skill, anomaly correlation coefficients （ACC）, after systematic error correction using the first five modes was regarded as potential predictability. Results showed that： 1） the statistical postprocessing approach was effective for systematic error correction; 2） model error sources mainly arose from mode 2 extracted from the SVD analysis-that is, during the transition phase of ENSO, the model encountered the spring predictability barrier; and 3） potential predictability （upper limits of predictability） could be high over most of the tropical Pacific basin, including the tropical western Pacific and an extra 10-degrees region of the mid and eastern Pacific.

A Hybrid Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model and ENSO Prediction Study

A hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere model is designed, which consists of a global AGCM and a simple anomaly ocean model in the tropical Pacific. Retroactive experimental predictions initiated in each season from 1979 to 1994 are performed. Analyses indicate that: (1) The overall predictive capability of this model for SSTA over the central-eastern tropical Pacific can reach one year, and the error is not larger than 0.8 degrees C. (2) The prediction skill depends greatly on the season when forecasts start. However, the phenomenon of SPB (spring prediction barrier) is not found in the model. (3) The ensemble forecast method can effectively improve prediction results. A new initialization scheme is discussed.

Influence of the North American Dipole on ENSO onset as simulated by a coupled ocean-Atmosphere model

The North American Dipole(NAD)is a north-south seesaw pattern of sea level pressure anomalies over the western tropical North Atlantic and northeastern North America.Previous observational studies have demonstrated that the NAD can affect the outbreak of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events.The present study analyzed the NAD-ENSO relationship as simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere model-namely,the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model,gridpoint version 2(FGOALS-g2).Results indicated that the model can replicate a distinct dipole comprised of a low over northeastern North America and a high over the western tropical North Atlantic,which is the signature feature of the NAD.Further analysis verified that the winter NAD can initiate the central equatorial Pacific warming in the subsequent winter by effectively forcing an anticyclonic flow and sea surface temperature(SST)warming over the northeastern subtropical Pacific(NESP)during late winter or early spring.In addition,the probability of an El Niño event was increased by a factor of 1.8 in the assimilation experiment with the NAD.By comparison,the winter Northern Atlantic Oscillation had no significant impact on the occurrence of ENSO a year later owing to its failure to induce the SST and surface wind anomalies over the NESP.

A Simple Quasi-Geostrophic Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

The quasi-geostrophic atmospheric and oceanic equations of momentum and thermodynamics with dissipation factors are used to create a simple coupled ocean-atmosphere model describing the large-scale shallow-water motion. We discuss the ocean-atmosphere coupling effect in mid-high and low latitudes separately and analyze characteristics of which the oscillatory periods of coupled low-frequency modes (ocean mode) vary with the coupling frequency and latitudinal number. This can interpret the correlation between low-frequency oscillation and ocean-atmosphere interaction. Then from the dispersion curves of atmosphere and ocean, we reveal effect of the coupling strength on the propagation of Rossby waves. The convection mechanism between the two modes is also discussed in view of the slowly varying wave train.The results show that Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh friction play a stable rule in oceanic Rossby waves, the period of coupled low-frequency mode grows with the increment of the coupling frequency. The larger the latitudinal number is, the more rapidly it grows. When the coupling frequency tends to critical value, the oceanic Rossby waves become static. When the ocean-atmosphere coupling strength grows to some degree, the propagation of oceanic Rossby waves will become opposite to its original direction. One part of the oceanic Rossby waves is converted into atmospheric Rossby waves, the energy conversion coefficient is also solved out.

A Further Study on an Extended Nonlinear Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Hydrodynamic Characteristic System and the Abrupt Feature of ENSO Events

An extended ocean-atmosphere coupled characteristic system including thermodynamic physical processes in ocean mixed layer is formulated in order to describe SST explicitly and remove possible limitation of ocean-atmosphere coupling assumption in hydrodynamic ENSO models. It is revealed that there is a kind of abrupt nonlinear characteristic behaviour, which relates to rapid onset and intermittency of El Nino events, on the second order slow time scale due to the nonlinear interaction between a linear unstable low-frequency primary eigen component of ocean-atmosphere coupled Kelvin wave and its higher order harmonic components under a strong ocean-atmosphere coupling background. And, on the other hand, there is a kind of finite amplitude nonlinear characteristic behaviour on the second order slow time scale due to the nonlinear interaction between the linear unstable primary eigen component and its higher order harmonic components under a weak ocean-atmosphere coupling background in this model system.

Ensemble Data Assimilation in a Simple Coupled Climate Model: The Role of Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction

A conceptual coupled ocean-atmosphere model was used to study coupled ensemble data assimilation schemes with a focus on the role of ocean-atmosphere interaction in the assimilation. The optimal scheme was the fully coupled data assimilation scheme that employs the coupled covariance matrix and assimilates observations in both the atmosphere and ocean. The assimilation of synoptic atmospheric variability that captures the temporal fluctuation of the weather noise was found to be critical for the estimation of not only the atmospheric, but also oceanic states. The synoptic atmosphere observation was especially important in the mid-latitude system, where oceanic variability is driven by weather noise. The assimilation of synoptic atmospheric variability in the coupled model improved the atmospheric variability in the analysis and the subsequent forecasts, reducing error in the surface forcing and, in turn, in the ocean state. Atmospheric observation was able to further improve the oceanic state estimation directly through the coupled covariance between the atmosphere and ocean states. Relative to the mid-latitude system, the tropical system was influenced more by ocean atmosphere interaction and, thus, the assimilation of oceanic observation becomes more important for the estimation of the ocean and atmosphere.

Impacts of Surface Exchange Coefficients on Simulations of Super Typhoon Megi(2010)Using a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave Model

In this study,the effects of surface exchange coefficients on simulations of Super Typhoon Megi(2010)are investigated using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model.Several experiments are conducted using different parameterization schemes for the drag(C_(D))and enthalpy exchange(C_(K))coefficients.For the selected case,considering only the leveling-off of C_(D)at high wind speeds does not effectively improve the simulated typhoon track,intensity,or size.We found that increasing C_(K)monotonically with wind speed(Komori et al.,2018)yields stronger winds and deeper pressures by enhancing latent and sensible heat fluxes,but typhoon intensity remains underestimated.We propose a new higher C_(K)than that from Komori et al.(2018)based on the theory of Emanuel(1995).This approach produces a greater modeled typhoon intensity that is in good agreement with the best track data and effectively improves the track error for the simulation.Improved accuracy for modeled typhoon intensity is achieved with the new coefficient because C_(K)/C_(D)reaches the threshold of about 0.75 predicted by Emanuel(1995).The new proposed C_(K)also results in a reasonably accurate modeled sea surface temperature.However,typhoon size and surface wave height are overestimated.This finding implies that more numerical tests for tropical cyclones of different nature(such as strong,weak,dissipating,rapidly intensifying,or weakening tropical cyclones)should be studied,and more physical processes should be explored in future coupled models.