Remaining useful life prediction based on nonlinear random coefficient regression model with fusing failure time data

Remaining useful life(RUL) prediction is one of the most crucial elements in prognostics and health management(PHM). Aiming at the imperfect prior information, this paper proposes an RUL prediction method based on a nonlinear random coefficient regression(RCR) model with fusing failure time data.Firstly, some interesting natures of parameters estimation based on the nonlinear RCR model are given. Based on these natures,the failure time data can be fused as the prior information reasonably. Specifically, the fixed parameters are calculated by the field degradation data of the evaluated equipment and the prior information of random coefficient is estimated with fusing the failure time data of congeneric equipment. Then, the prior information of the random coefficient is updated online under the Bayesian framework, the probability density function(PDF) of the RUL with considering the limitation of the failure threshold is performed. Finally, two case studies are used for experimental verification. Compared with the traditional Bayesian method, the proposed method can effectively reduce the influence of imperfect prior information and improve the accuracy of RUL prediction.

Experimental investigation on synergetic prediction of granite rockburst using rock failure time and acoustic emission energy

The frequent occurrence of rockburst and the difficulty in predicting were considered in deep engineering and underground engineering.In this work,laboratory experiments on rockburst under true triaxial conditions were carried out with granite samples.Combined with the deformation characteristics of granite,acoustic emission(AE)technology was well applied in revealing the evolution law of micro-cracks in the process of rockburst.Based on the comprehensive analysis of acoustic emission parameters such as impact,ringing and energy,the phased characteristics of crack propagation and damage evolution in granite were obtained,which were consistent with the stages of rock deformation and failure.Subsequently,based on the critical point theory,the accelerated release characteristics of acoustic emission energy during rockburst were analyzed.Based on the damage theory,the damage evolution model of rock under different loading conditions was proposed,and the prediction interval of rock failure time was ascertained concurrently.Finally,regarding damage as an intermediate variable,the synergetic prediction model of rock failure time was constructed.The feasibility and validity of model were verified.

Bayesian machine learning-based method for prediction of slope failure time

The data-driven phenomenological models based on deformation measurements have been widely utilized to predict the slope failure time(SFT).The observational and model uncertainties could lead the predicted SFT calculated from the phenomenological models to deviate from the actual SFT.Currently,very limited study has been conducted on how to evaluate the effect of such uncertainties on SFT prediction.In this paper,a comprehensive slope failure database was compiled.A Bayesian machine learning(BML)-based method was developed to learn the model and observational uncertainties involved in SFT prediction,through which the probabilistic distribution of the SFT can be obtained.This method was illustrated in detail with an example.Verification studies show that the BML-based method is superior to the traditional inverse velocity method(INVM)and the maximum likelihood method for predicting SFT.The proposed method in this study provides an effective tool for SFT prediction.

Comparison of Cox proportional hazards model,Cox proportional hazards with time-varying coefficients model,and lognormal accelerated failure time model:Application in time to event analysis of melioidosis patients

Objective:To compare the prognostic factors of mortality among melioidosis patients between lognormal accelerated failure time(AFT),Cox proportional hazards(PH),and Cox PH with time-varying coefficient(TVC)models.Methods:A retrospective study was conducted from 2014 to 2019 among 453 patients who were admitted to Hospital Sultanah Bahiyah,Kedah and Hospital Tuanku Fauziah,Perlis in Northern Malaysia due to confirmed-cultured melioidosis.The prognostic factors of mortality from melioidosis were obtained from AFT survival analysis,and Cox’s models and the findings were compared by using the goodness of fit methods.The analyses were done by using Stata SE version 14.0.Results:A total of 242 patients(53.4%)survived.In this study,the median survival time of melioidosis patients was 30.0 days(95%CI 0.0-60.9).Six significant prognostic factors were identified in the Cox PH model and Cox PH-TVC model.In AFT survival analysis,a total of seven significant prognostic factors were identified.The results were found to be only a slight difference between the identified prognostic factors among the models.AFT survival showed better results compared to Cox's models,with the lowest Akaike information criteria and best fitted Cox-snell residuals.Conclusions:AFT survival analysis provides more reliable results and can be used as an alternative statistical analysis for determining the prognostic factors of mortality in melioidosis patients in certain situations.

Structural first failure times under non-Gaussian stochastic behavior

An analytical moment-based method for calculating structuralfirst failure times under non-Gaussian stochastic behavior is proposed. In the method, a power series that constants can be obtained from response moments （skewness, kurtosis, etc.） is used firstly to map a non-Gaussian structural response into a standard Gaussian process, then mean up-crossing rates, mean clump size and the initial passage probability of a critical barrier level by the original structural response are estimated, and finally, the formula for calculating first failure times is established on the assur^ption that corrected up-crossing rates are independent. An analysis of a nonlinear single-degree-of-freedom dynamical system excited by a Gaussian model of load not only demonstrates the usage of the proposed method but also shows the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method by comparisons between the present method and other methods such as Monte Carlo simulation and the traditional Gaussian model.

Concave Group Selection of Nonparameter Additive Accelerated Failure Time Model

In this paper, we have studied the nonparameter accelerated failure time (AFT) additive regression model, whose covariates have a nonparametric effect on high-dimensional censored data. We give the asymptotic property of the penalty estimator based on GMCP in the nonparameter AFT model.

A Generalized Accelerated Failure Time Model to Predict Restoration Time from Power Outages

Major disasters such as wildfire, tornado, hurricane, tropical storm, and flooding cause disruptions in infrastructure systems such as power and water supply, wastewater management, telecommunication, and transportation facilities. Disruptions in electricity infrastructure have negative impacts on sectors throughout a region, including education, medical services,financial services, and recreation. In this study, we introduced a novel approach to investigate the factors that can be associated with longer restoration time of power service after a hurricane. Considering restoration time as the dependent variable and using a comprehensive set of county-level data, we estimated a generalized accelerated failure time(GAFT) model that accounts for spatial dependence among observations for time to event data. The model fit improved by 12% after considering the effects of spatial correlation in time to event data. Using the GAFT model and Hurricane Irma's impact on Florida as a case study, we examined:(1) differences in electric power outages and restoration rates among different types of power companies—investor-owned power companies, rural and municipal cooperatives;(2) the relationship between the duration of power outage and power system variables;and(3) the relationship between the duration of power outage and socioeconomic attributes. The findings of this study indicate that counties with a higher percentage of customers served by investor-owned electric companies and lower median household income faced power outage for a longer time. This study identified the key factors to predict restoration time of hurricane-induced power outages, allowing disaster management agencies to adopt strategies required for restoration process.

Semiparametric Bayesian Inference for Accelerated Failure Time Models with Errors-in-Covariates and Doubly Censored Data

This paper proposes a Bayesian semiparametric accelerated failure time model for doubly censored data with errors-in-covariates. The authors model the distributions of the unobserved covariates and the regression errors via the Dirichlet processes. Moreover, the authors extend the Bayesian Lasso approach to our semiparametric model for variable selection. The authors develop the Markov chain Monte Carlo strategies for posterior calculation. Simulation studies are conducted to show the performance of the proposed method. The authors also demonstrate the implementation of the method using analysis of PBC data and ACTG 175 data.

Marginal Accelerated Hazard Model with Multivariate Failure Time Data

Multivariate failure time data are frequently encountered in biomedical research.In this article,we model marginal hazards with accelerated hazards model to analyze multivariate failure time data.Estimating equations are derived analogous to generalized estimating equation method.Under certain regular conditions,the resultant estimators for the regression parameters are shown to be asymptotically normal.Furthermore,we also establish the weak convergence of estimators for the baseline cumulative hazard functions.

Discussion of Fan et al.’s paper “Gaining effciency via weighted estimators for multivariate failure time data”

In the analysis of correlated data, it is ideal to capture the true dependence structure to increase effciency of the estimation. However, for multivariate survival data, this is extremely

Inverse-square-root-acceleration method for predicting the failure time of landslides

Predicting the failure time of unstable slopes is one of the most pivotal issues. In this paper, the inverse square root acceleration(INSRA) method was proposed to estimate the time-of-failure(TOF) of landslides. Four collapsed slopes were presented in the three open-pit mines, two of them were probed by ground-based radar, and two of them were obtained from previous scientific papers. The inverse velocity(INV) method and INSRA method were adopted to analyze these four landslides and one slope which had great deformation but did not reach failure. Compared with the traditional INV method, the INSRA method can promote the forecasting effectiveness and has the advantage of higher accuracy.

Asymptotics on Semiparametric Analysis of Multivariate Failure Time Data Under the Additive Hazards Model

Many survival studies record the times to two or more distinct failures oneach subject. The failures may be events of different natures or may be repetitions of the same kindof event. In this article, we consider the regression analysis of such multivariate failure timedata under the additive hazards model. Simple weighted estimating functions for the regressionparameters are proposed, and asymptotic distribution theory of the resulting estimators are derived.In addition, a class of generalized Wald and generalized score statistics for hypothesis testingand model selection are presented, and the asymptotic properties of these statistics are examined.

Regression Analysis of Interval-Censored Data with Informative Observation Times Under the Accelerated Failure Time Model

This paper discusses regression analysis of interval-censored failure time data arising from the accelerated failure time model in the presence of informative censoring.For the problem,a sieve maximum likelihood estimation approach is proposed and in the method,the copula model is employed to describe the relationship between the failure time of interest and the censoring or observation process.Also I-spline functions are used to approximate the unknown functions in the model,and a simulation study is carried out to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed approach and suggests that it works well in practical situations.In addition,an illustrative example is provided.

Additive Hazards Regression with Random Effects for Clustered Failure Times

Additive hazards model with random effects is proposed for modelling the correlated failure time data when focus is on comparing the failure times within clusters and on estimating the correlation between failure times from the same cluster, as well as the marginal regression parameters. Our model features that, when marginalized over the random effect variable, it still enjoys the structure of the additive hazards model. We develop the estimating equations for inferring the regression parameters. The proposed estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal under appropriate regularity conditions. Furthermore, the estimator of the baseline hazards function is proposed and its asymptotic properties are also established. We propose a class of diagnostic methods to assess the overall fitting adequacy of the additive hazards model with random effects. We conduct simulation studies to evaluate the finite sample behaviors of the proposed estimators in various scenarios. Analysis of the Diabetic Retinopathy Study is provided as an illustration for the proposed method.

Discussion on “Gaining Effciency via Weight Estimators for Multivariate Failure Time Data” by Fan, Zhou and Chen

The survival analysis literature has always lagged behind the categorical data literature in developing methods to analyze clustered or multivariate data. While estimators based on

Rejoinder for Gaining effciency via weighted estimators for multivariate failure time data

We thank all the discussants for their interesting and stimulating contributions. They have touched various aspects that have not been considered by the original articles.

Automatic prediction of time to failure of open pit mine slopes based on radar monitoring and inverse velocity method

Radar slope monitoring is now widely used across the world, for example, the slope stability radar(SSR)and the movement and surveying radar(MSR) are currently in use in many mines around the world.However, to fully realize the effectiveness of this radar in notifying mine personnel of an impending slope failure, a method that can confidently predict the time of failure is necessary. The model developed in this study is based on the inverse velocity method pioneered by Fukuzono in 1985. The model named the slope failure prediction model(SFPM) was validated with the displacement data from two slope failures monitored with the MSR. The model was found to be very effective in predicting the time to failure while providing adequate evacuation time once the progressive displacement stage is reached.

Comparison of Semi-Parametric Shared Frailty Models for Bees’Survival

Survival analysis is a fundamental tool in medical science for time-to-event data. However, its application to colony organisms like bees poses challenges due to their social nature. Traditional survival models may not accurately capture the interdependence among individuals within a colony. Frailty models, accounting for shared risks within groups, offer a promising alternative. This study evaluates the performance of semi-parametric shared frailty models (gamma, inverse normal, and positive stable-in comparison to the traditional Cox model using bees’ survival data). We examined the effect of misspecification of the frailty distribution on regression and heterogeneity parameters using simulation and concluded that the heterogeneity parameter was more sensitive to misspecification of the frailty distribution and choice of initial parameters (cluster size and true heterogeneity parameter) compared to the regression parameter. From the data, parameter estimates for covariates were close for the four models but slightly higher for the Cox model. The shared gamma frailty model provided a better fit to the data in comparison with the other models. Therefore, when focusing on regression parameters, the gamma frailty model is recommended. This research underscores the importance of tailored survival methodologies for accurately analyzing time-to-event data in social organisms.

A Universal Reduced Rupture Creep Approach for Failure Behavior of Aged Glass Polymers from the Rupture Creep Compliance by the Unified Master Prediction of Long Term Short Term Test of Curved Extrapolation

The prediction of long term failure behaviors and lifetime of aged glass polymers from the short term tests of reduced rupture creep compliance （or strain） is one of difficult problems in polymer science and engineering. A new ＂universal reduced rupture creep approach＂ with exact theoretical analysis and computations is proposed in this work. Failure by creep for polymeric material is an important problem to be addressed in the engineering. A universal equation on reduced extensional failure creep compliance for PMMA has been derived. It is successful in relating the reduced extensional failure creep compliance with aging time, temperature, levels of stress, the average growth dimensional number and the parameter in K-W-W function. Based on the universal equation, a method for the prediction of failure behavior, failure strain criterion, failure time of PMMA has been developed which is named as a universal ＂reduced rupture creep approach＂. The results show that the predicted failure strain and failure time of PMMA at different aging times for different levels of stress are all in agreement with those obtained directly from experiments, and the proposed method is reliable and practical. The dependences of reduced extensional failure creep compliance on the conditions of aging time, failure creep stress, the structure of fluidized-domain constituent chains are discussed. The shifting factor, exponent for time-stress superposition at different levels of stress and the shifting factor, exponent for time-time aging superposition at different aging time are theoretically defined respectively.

A framework for identifying the onset of landslide acceleration based on the exponential moving average(EMA)

Predicting the failure time of a landslide is considered as challenging work in the field of landslide research,and inverse velocity is proved to be an effective and convenient method.The onset of acceleration(OOA)has a crucial effect on the prediction failure time from the inverse velocity method.However,a simple method to identify OOA points is lacked,and most of the identifications rely on expert experience.Therefore,this study presents an application of a simple framework developed to identify the OOA by analyzing monitoring velocity data in three steps,including selection of the absolute value of velocity,reliable area identification and OOA identification.A new parameter based on exponential moving average(EMA)is developed to identify the landslide OOA.The framework is applied to three historical case studies to test its practicability and effectiveness.The forecasting results show a good correspondence between the accuracy rate and the coefficient of determination(R2).The predicted failure time according to the linear extrapolation starting from the identified OOA points is acceptable with a high R2 and high accuracy.