Attribute-driven Fuzzy Fault Tree Model for Adaptive Lubricant Failure Diagnosis

Lubricant diagnosis serves as a crucial accordance for condition-based maintenance(CBM)involving oil changing and wear examination of critical parts in equipment.However,the accuracy of traditional end-to-end diagnosis models is often limited by the inconsistency and random fluctuations in multiple monitoring indicators.To address this,an attribute-driven adaptive diagnosis method is developed,involving three attributes:physicochemical,contamination,and wear.Correspondingly,a fuzzy fault tree(termed FFT)-based model is constructed containing the logic correlations from monitoring indicators to attributes and to lubricant failures.In particular,inference rules are integrated to mitigate conflicts arising from the reverse degradation of multiple indicators.With this model,the lubricant conditions can be accurately assessed through rule-based reasoning.Furthermore,to enhance its intelligence,the model is dynamically optimized with lubricant analysis knowledge and monitoring data.For verification,the developed model is tested with lubricant samples from both the fatigue experiment and actual aero-engines.Fatigue experiments reveal that the proposed model can improve the lubricant diagnosis accuracy from 73.4%to 92.6%compared with the existing methods.While for the engine lubricant test,a high accuracy of 90%was achieved.

Analytical Model and Algorithm of Fuzzy Fault Tree

In the past, the probabilities of basic events were described as triangular or trapezoidal fuzzy number that cannot characterize the common distribution of the primary events in engineering, and the fault tree analyzed by fuzzy set theory did not include repeated basic events. This paper presents a new method to analyze the fault tree by using normal fuzzy number to describe the fuzzy probability of each basic event which is more suitably used to analyze the reliability in safety systems, and then the formulae of computing the fuzzy probability of the top event of the fault tree which includes repeated events are derived. Finally, an example is given.

Fuzzy fault tree analysis of oil and gas leakage in subsea production systems

This paper presents a probabilistic failure analysis of leakage of the oil and gas in a subsea production system using fault tree analysis(FTA).A fault tree was constructed by considering four major areas where the leakages can be initiated.These are:gas and oil wells,pipelines,key facilities and third party damage.Conventional FTA requires precise values for the probability of failure of the basic events.However,since the failure data are uncertain,a fuzzy approach to these data is taken which leads to the so-called fuzzy fault tree analysis(FFTA),a method that employs expert elicitation and fuzzy set theories to calculate the failure probabilities of the intermediate events and the top event through identification of the minimal cut sets of the fault tree.A number of importance measures for minimal cut sets and the basic events have been obtained which helps to identify the nature of dependence of the top event on the basic events and thereby can identify the weakest links that may cause leakage in the subsea production system.

Risk Assessment of Deep-Water Horizontal X-Tree Installation

Due to the high potential risk and many influencing factors of subsea horizontal X-tree installation,to guarantee the successful completion of sea trials of domestic subsea horizontal X-trees,this paper established a modular risk evaluation model based on a fuzzy fault tree.First,through the analysis of the main process oftree down and combining the Offshore&Onshore Reliability Data(OREDA)failure statistics and the operation procedure and the data provided by the job,the fault tree model of risk analysis of the tree down installation was established.Then,by introducing the natural language of expert comprehensive evaluation and combining fuzzy principles,quantitative analysis was carried out,and the fuzzy number was used to calculate the failure probability of a basic event and the occurrence probability of a top event.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of basic events,the basic events of top events significantly affected were determined,and risk control and prevention measures for the corresponding high-risk factors were proposed for subsea horizontal X-tree down installation.