Federated Learning Model for Auto Insurance Rate Setting Based on Tweedie Distribution

In the assessment of car insurance claims,the claim rate for car insurance presents a highly skewed probability distribution,which is typically modeled using Tweedie distribution.The traditional approach to obtaining the Tweedie regression model involves training on a centralized dataset,when the data is provided by multiple parties,training a privacy-preserving Tweedie regression model without exchanging raw data becomes a challenge.To address this issue,this study introduces a novel vertical federated learning-based Tweedie regression algorithm for multi-party auto insurance rate setting in data silos.The algorithm can keep sensitive data locally and uses privacy-preserving techniques to achieve intersection operations between the two parties holding the data.After determining which entities are shared,the participants train the model locally using the shared entity data to obtain the local generalized linear model intermediate parameters.The homomorphic encryption algorithms are introduced to interact with and update the model intermediate parameters to collaboratively complete the joint training of the car insurance rate-setting model.Performance tests on two publicly available datasets show that the proposed federated Tweedie regression algorithm can effectively generate Tweedie regression models that leverage the value of data fromboth partieswithout exchanging data.The assessment results of the scheme approach those of the Tweedie regressionmodel learned fromcentralized data,and outperformthe Tweedie regressionmodel learned independently by a single party.

Modeling the effect of stand and site characteristics on the probability of mistletoe infestation in Scots pine stands using remote sensing data

Over the past decade,the presence of mistletoe(Viscum album ssp.austriacum)in Scots pine stands has increased in many European countries.Understanding the factors that influence the occurrence of mistletoe in stands is key to making appropriate forest management decisions to limit damage and prevent the spread of mistletoe in the future.Therefore,the main objective of this study was to determine the probability of mistletoe occurrence in Scots pine stands in relation to stand-related endogenous factors such as age,top height,and stand density,as well as topographic and edaphic factors.We used unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)imagery from 2,247 stands to detect mistletoe in Scots pine stands,while majority stand and site characteristics were calculated from airborne laser scanning(ALS)data.Information on stand age and site type from the State Forest database were also used.We found that mistletoe infestation in Scots pine stands is influenced by stand and site characteristics.We documented that the densest,tallest,and oldest stands were more susceptible to mistletoe infestation.Site type and specific microsite conditions associated with topography were also important factors driving mistletoe occurrence.In addition,climatic water balance was a significant factor in increasing the probability of mistletoe occurrence,which is important in the context of predicted temperature increases associated with climate change.Our results are important for better understanding patterns of mistletoe infestation and ecosystem functioning under climate change.In an era of climate change and technological development,the use of remote sensing methods to determine the risk of mistletoe infestation can be a very useful tool for managing forest ecosystems to maintain forest sustainability and prevent forest disturbance.

Analysis of the inflection points of height-diameter models

The inflection point is an important feature of sigmoidal height-diameter(H-D)models.It is often cited as one of the properties favoring sigmoidal model forms.However,there are very few studies analyzing the inflection points of H-D models.The goals of this study were to theoretically and empirically examine the behaviors of inflection points of six common H-D models with a regional dataset.The six models were the Wykoff(WYK),Schumacher(SCH),Curtis(CUR),HossfeldⅣ(HOS),von Bertalanffy-Richards(VBR),and Gompertz(GPZ)models.The models were first fitted in their base forms with tree species as random effects and were then expanded to include functional traits and spatial distribution.The distributions of the estimated inflection points were similar between the two-parameter models WYK,SCH,and CUR,but were different between the threeparameter models HOS,VBR,and GPZ.GPZ produced some of the largest inflection points.HOS and VBR produced concave H-D curves without inflection points for 12.7%and 39.7%of the tree species.Evergreen species or decreasing shade tolerance resulted in larger inflection points.The trends in the estimated inflection points of HOS and VBR were entirely opposite across the landscape.Furthermore,HOS could produce concave H-D curves for portions of the landscape.Based on the studied behaviors,the choice between two-parameter models may not matter.We recommend comparing seve ral three-parameter model forms for consistency in estimated inflection points before deciding on one.Believing sigmoidal models to have inflection points does not necessarily mean that they will produce fitted curves with one.Our study highlights the need to integrate analysis of inflection points into modeling H-D relationships.

Diagnostics in generalized nonlinear models based on maximum L_q-likelihood estimation

In order to detect whether the data conforms to the given model, it is necessary to diagnose the data in the statistical way. The diagnostic problem in generalized nonlinear models based on the maximum Lq-likelihood estimation is considered. Three diagnostic statistics are used to detect whether the outliers exist in the data set. Simulation results show that when the sample size is small, the values of diagnostic statistics based on the maximum Lq-likelihood estimation are greater than the values based on the maximum likelihood estimation. As the sample size increases, the difference between the values of the diagnostic statistics based on two estimation methods diminishes gradually. It means that the outliers can be distinguished easier through the maximum Lq-likelihood method than those through the maximum likelihood estimation method.

Coverless Steganography for Digital Images Based on a Generative Model

In this paper,we propose a novel coverless image steganographic scheme based on a generative model.In our scheme,the secret image is first fed to the generative model database,to generate a meaning-normal and independent image different from the secret image.The generated image is then transmitted to the receiver and fed to the generative model database to generate another image visually the same as the secret image.Thus,we only need to transmit the meaning-normal image which is not related to the secret image,and we can achieve the same effect as the transmission of the secret image.This is the first time to propose the coverless image information steganographic scheme based on generative model,compared with the traditional image steganography.The transmitted image is not embedded with any information of the secret image in this method,therefore,can effectively resist steganalysis tools.Experimental results show that our scheme has high capacity,security and reliability.

A Generalized Layered Radiative Transfer Model in the Vegetation Canopy

In this paper, a generalized layered model for radiation transfer in canopy with high vertical resolution is developed. Differing from the two-stream approximate radiation transfer model commonly used in the land surface models, the generalized model takes into account the effect of complicated canopy morphology and inhomogeneous optical properties of leaves on radiation transfer within the canopy. In the model, the total leaf area index （LAI） of the canopy is divided into many layers. At a given layer, the influences of diffuse radiation angle distributions and leaf angle distributions on radiation transfer within the canopy are considered. The derivation of equations serving the model are described in detail, and these can deal with various diffuse radiation transfers in quite broad categories of canopy with quite inhomogeneons vertical structures and uneven leaves with substantially different optical properties of adaxial and abaxial faces of the leaves. The model is used to simulate the radiation transfer for canopies with horizontal leaves to validate the generalized model. Results from the model are compared with those from the two-stream scheme, and differences between these two models are discussed.

Optimization of environmental variables in habitat suitability modeling for mantis shrimp Oratosquilla oratoria in the Haizhou Bay and adjacent waters

Habitat suitability index(HSI)models have been widely used to analyze the relationship between species abundance and environmental factors,and ultimately inform management of marine species.The response of species abundance to each environmental variable is different and habitat requirements may change over life history stages and seasons.Therefore,it is necessary to determine the optimal combination of environmental variables in HSI modelling.In this study,generalized additive models(GAMs)were used to determine which environmental variables to be included in the HSI models.Significant variables were retained and weighted in the HSI model according to their relative contribution(%)to the total deviation explained by the boosted regression tree(BRT).The HSI models were applied to evaluate the habitat suitability of mantis shrimp Oratosquilla oratoria in the Haizhou Bay and adjacent areas in 2011 and 2013–2017.Ontogenetic and seasonal variations in HSI models of mantis shrimp were also examined.Among the four models(non-optimized model,BRT informed HSI model,GAM informed HSI model,and both BRT and GAM informed HSI model),both BRT and GAM informed HSI model showed the best performance.Four environmental variables(bottom temperature,depth,distance offshore and sediment type)were selected in the HSI models for four groups(spring-juvenile,spring-adult,falljuvenile and fall-adult)of mantis shrimp.The distribution of habitat suitability showed similar patterns between juveniles and adults,but obvious seasonal variations were observed.This study suggests that the process of optimizing environmental variables in HSI models improves the performance of HSI models,and this optimization strategy could be extended to other marine organisms to enhance the understanding of the habitat suitability of target species.

THEORETICAL MODEL OF EFFECTIVE STRESS COEFFICIENT FOR ROCK/SOIL-LIKE POROUS MATERIALS

Physical mechanisms and influencing factors on the effective stress coefficient for rock/soil-like porous materials are investigated, based on which equivalent connectivity index is proposed. The equivalent connectivity index, relying on the meso-scale structure of porous material and the property of liquid, denotes the connectivity of pores in Representative Element Area （REA）. If the conductivity of the porous material is anisotropic, the equivalent connectivity index is a second order tensor. Based on the basic theories of continuous mechanics and tensor analysis, relationship between area porosity and volumetric porosity of porous materials is deduced. Then a generalized expression, describing the relation between effective stress coefficient tensor and equivalent connectivity tensor of pores, is proposed, and the expression can be applied to isotropic media and also to anisotropic materials. Furthermore, evolution of porosity and equivalent connectivity index of the pore are studied in the strain space, and the method to determine the corresponding functions in expressions above is proposed using genetic algorithm and genetic programming. Two applications show that the results obtained by the method in this paper perfectly agree with the test data. This paper provides an important theoretical support to the coupled hydro-mechanical research.

Predictive Vegetation Mapping Approach Based on Spectral Data, DEM and Generalized Additive Models

This study aims to provide a predictive vegetation mapping approach based on the spectral data, DEM and Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). GAMs were used as a prediction tool to describe the relationship between vegetation and environmental variables, as well as spectral variables. Based on the fitted GAMs model, probability map of species occurrence was generated and then vegetation type of each grid was defined according to the probability of species occurrence. Deviance analysis was employed to test the goodness of curve fitting and drop contribution calculation was used to evaluate the contribution of each predictor in the fitted GAMs models. Area under curve (AUC) of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve was employed to assess the results maps of probability. The results showed that: 1) AUC values of the fitted GAMs models are very high which proves that integrating spectral data and environmental variables based on the GAMs is a feasible way to map the vegetation. 2) Prediction accuracy varies with plant community, and community with dense cover is better predicted than sparse plant community. 3) Both spectral variables and environmental variables play an important role in mapping the vegetation. However, the contribution of the same predictor in the GAMs models for different plant communities is different. 4) Insufficient resolution of spectral data, environmental data and confounding effects of land use and other variables which are not closely related to the environmental conditions are the major causes of imprecision.

Theoretical analysis of the spatio-temporal evolution of the bulk-strain field based on a rheologic inclusion model

Based on the theoretical expression of the three-dimension rheologic inclusion model, we analyze in detail the spatio-temporal changes on the ground of the bulk-strain produced by a spherical rheologic inclusion in a semi-infinite rheologic medium. The results show that the spatio-temporal change of bulk-strain produced by the hard inclusion has three stages of different characteristics, which are similar to most of those geodetic deformation curves, but those by a soft inclusion do not. The α-stage is a long stage in which the precursors in both the near source region and the far field develop from the focal region to the periphery. The β-stage indicates a very rapid propagation of the precursors, so that they almost appear everywhere. During the γ-stage, the precursors in the far-field converge from the periphery, and the precursors in the near source region develop outwards. The theoretical results have been used to explain tentatively the stage characteristics of the spatio-temporal change of earthquake precursors.

Multi-source information fused generative adversarial network model and data assimilation based history matching for reservoir with complex geologies

For reservoirs with complex non-Gaussian geological characteristics,such as carbonate reservoirs or reservoirs with sedimentary facies distribution,it is difficult to implement history matching directly,especially for the ensemble-based data assimilation methods.In this paper,we propose a multi-source information fused generative adversarial network(MSIGAN)model,which is used for parameterization of the complex geologies.In MSIGAN,various information such as facies distribution,microseismic,and inter-well connectivity,can be integrated to learn the geological features.And two major generative models in deep learning,variational autoencoder(VAE)and generative adversarial network(GAN)are combined in our model.Then the proposed MSIGAN model is integrated into the ensemble smoother with multiple data assimilation(ESMDA)method to conduct history matching.We tested the proposed method on two reservoir models with fluvial facies.The experimental results show that the proposed MSIGAN model can effectively learn the complex geological features,which can promote the accuracy of history matching.

Modeling hot strip rolling process under framework of generalized additive model

This research develops a new mathematical modeling method by combining industrial big data and process mechanism analysis under the framework of generalized additive models(GAM)to generate a practical model with generalization and precision.Specifically,the proposed modeling method includes the following steps.Firstly,the influence factors are screened using mechanism knowledge and data-mining methods.Secondly,the unary GAM without interactions including cleaning the data,building the sub-models,and verifying the sub-models.Subsequently,the interactions between the various factors are explored,and the binary GAM with interactions is constructed.The relationships among the sub-models are analyzed,and the integrated model is built.Finally,based on the proposed modeling method,two prediction models of mechanical property and deformation resistance for hot-rolled strips are established.Industrial actual data verification demonstrates that the new models have good prediction precision,and the mean absolute percentage errors of tensile strength,yield strength and deformation resistance are 2.54%,3.34%and 6.53%,respectively.And experimental results suggest that the proposed method offers a new approach to industrial process modeling.

GENERALIZED SIMULATION MODEL FOR MILLED SURFACE TOPOGRAPHY-APPLICATION TO PERIPHERAL MILLING

Based on analyzing various factors influencing milled surface topography, firstly, a generalized model for milled surface topography is proposed. Secondly, using the principles of transformation matrix and vector operation, the trajectory equation of cutting edge relative to workpiece is derived. Then, a three dimensional topography simulation algorithm is constructed through dividing the workpiece into regular grids. Finally, taking the peripheral milling process as an example, the generalized model is simplified, and the corresponding simulation examples are given. The results indicate that it is very efficient for the generalized model to be used to analyze and simulate the peripherally milled surface topography.

Baroclinic Instability in the Generalized Phillips' Model Part Ⅱ:Three-layer Model

The nonlinear stability of the three-layer generalized Phillips model, for which the velocity in each layeris constant and the top and bottom surfaces are either rigid or free, is studied by employing Arnol'd'svariational principle and a prior estimate method. The nonlinear stability criteria are established. For comparison, the linear instability criteria are also obtained by using normal mode method. and the influences ofthe free parameter, β parameter and curvature in vertical profile of the horizontal velocity on the linear instability are discussed by use of the growth rate curves. The comparison between the nonlinear stability criterion and the linear one is made. It is shown that insome cases the two criteria are exactly the same in form, but in other cases, they are different. This phenomenon, which reveals the nonlinear property of the linear instability features. is explained by the explosiveresonant interaction (ERI). When there exists the ERI, i.e., the nonlinear mechanisms play a leading role inthe dynamical system. the nonlinear stability criterion is different from the linear one, on the other hand.when there does not exist the ERI. the nonlinear stability criterion is the same as the linear one in form.

Benchmarking deep learning-based models on nanophotonic inverse design problems

Photonic inverse design concerns the problem of finding photonic structures with target optical properties.However,traditional methods based on optimization algorithms are time-consuming and computationally expensive.Recently,deep learning-based approaches have been developed to tackle the problem of inverse design efficiently.Although most of these neural network models have demonstrated high accuracy in different inverse design problems,no previous study has examined the potential effects under given constraints in nanomanufacturing.Additionally,the relative strength of different deep learning-based inverse design approaches has not been fully investigated.Here,we benchmark three commonly used deep learning models in inverse design:Tandem networks,Variational Auto-Encoders,and Generative Adversarial Networks.We provide detailed comparisons in terms of their accuracy,diversity,and robustness.We find that tandem networks and Variational Auto-Encoders give the best accuracy,while Generative Adversarial Networks lead to the most diverse predictions.Our findings could serve as a guideline for researchers to select the model that can best suit their design criteria and fabrication considerations.In addition,our code and data are publicly available,which could be used for future inverse design model development and benchmarking.

Blind source separation based on generalized gaussian model

Since in most blind source separation(BSS)algorithms the estimations of probability density function(pdf)of sources are fixed or can only switch between one sup-Gaussian and other sub-Gaussian model,they may not be efficient to separate sources with different distributions.So to solve the problem of pdf mismatch and the separation of hybrid mixture in BSS,the generalized Gaussian model(GGM)is introduced to model the pdf of the sources since it can provide a general structure of univariate distributions.Its great advantage is that only one parameter needs to be determined in modeling the pdf of different sources,so it is less complex than Gaussian mixture model.By using maximum likelihood(ML)approach,the convergence of the proposed algorithm is improved.The computer simulations show that it is more efficient and valid than conventional methods with fixed pdf estimation.

Generalized Internal Model Robust Control for Active Front Steering Intervention

Because of the tire nonlinearity and vehicle＇s parameters＇uncertainties,robust control methods based on the worst cases,such as H_∞,μsynthesis,have been widely used in active front steering control,however,in order to guarantee the stability of active front steering system（AFS）controller,the robust control is at the cost of performance so that the robust controller is a little conservative and has low performance for AFS control.In this paper,a generalized internal model robust control（GIMC）that can overcome the contradiction between performance and stability is used in the AFS control.In GIMC,the Youla parameterization is used in an improved way.And GIMC controller includes two sections：a high performance controller designed for the nominal vehicle model and a robust controller compensating the vehicle parameters＇uncertainties and some external disturbances.Simulations of double lane change（DLC）maneuver and that of braking on split-μroad are conducted to compare the performance and stability of the GIMC control,the nominal performance PID controller and the H_∞controller.Simulation results show that the high nominal performance PID controller will be unstable under some extreme situations because of large vehicle＇s parameters variations,H_∞controller is conservative so that the performance is a little low,and only the GIMC controller overcomes the contradiction between performance and robustness,which can both ensure the stability of the AFS controller and guarantee the high performance of the AFS controller.Therefore,the GIMC method proposed for AFS can overcome some disadvantages of control methods used by current AFS system,that is,can solve the instability of PID or LQP control methods and the low performance of the standard H_∞controller.

Examining spatiotemporal distribution and CPUE-environment relationships for the jumbo flying squid Dosidicus gigas offshore Peru based on spatial autoregressive model

The spatiotemporal distribution and relationship between nominal catch-per-unit-ef fort(CPUE) and environment for the jumbo flying squid( Dosidicus gigas) were examined in of fshore Peruvian waters during 2009–2013. Three typical oceanographic factors aff ecting the squid habitat were investigated in this research, including sea surface temperature(SST), sea surface salinity(SSS) and sea surface height(SSH). We studied the CPUE-environment relationships for D. gigas using a spatially-lagged version of spatial autoregressive(SAR) model and a generalized additive model(GAM), with the latter for auxiliary and comparative purposes. The annual fishery centroids were distributed broadly in an area bounded by 79.5°–82.7°W and 11.9°–17.1°S, while the monthly fishery centroids were spatially close and lay in a smaller area bounded by 81.0°–81.2°W and 14.3°–15.4°S. Our results show that the preferred environmental ranges for D. gigas offshore Peru were 20.9°–21.9°C for SST, 35.16–35.32 for SSS and 27.2–31.5 cm for SSH in the areas bounded by 78°–80°W/82–84°W and 15°–18°S. Monthly spatial distributions during October to December were predicted using the calibrated GAM and SAR models and general similarities were found between the observed and predicted patterns for the nominal CPUE of D. gigas. The overall accuracies for the hotspots generated by the SAR model were much higher than those produced by the GAM model for all three months. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the spatiotemporal distributions of D. gigas off shore Peru, and off er a new SAR modeling method for advancing fishery science.

Blind source separation of ship-radiated noise based on generalized Gaussian model

When the distribution of the sources cannot be estimated accurately, the ICA algorithms failed to separate the mixtures blindly. The generalized Gaussian model （GGM） is presented in ICA algorithm since it can model non- Ganssian statistical structure of different source signals easily. By inferring only one parameter, a wide class of statistical distributions can be characterized. By using maximum likelihood （ML） approach and natural gradient descent, the learning rules of blind source separation （BSS） based on GGM are presented. The experiment of the ship-radiated noise demonstrates that the GGM can model the distributions of the ship-radiated noise and sea noise efficiently, and the learning rules based on GGM gives more successful separation results after comparing it with several conventional methods such as high order cumnlants and Gaussian mixture density function.

Additions of landscape metrics improve predictions of occurrence of species distribution models

Species distribution models are used to aid our understanding of the processes driving the spatial patterns of species’ habitats. This approach has received criticism, however, largely because it neglects landscape metrics. We examined the relative impacts of landscape predictors on the accuracy of habitat models by constructing distribution models at regional scales incorporating environmental variables (climate, topography, vegetation, and soil types) and secondary species occurrence data, and using them to predict the occurrence of 36 species in 15 forest fragments where we conducted rapid surveys. We then selected six landscape predictors at the landscape scale and ran general linear models of species presence/absence with either a single scale predictor (the probabilities of occurrence of the distribution models or landscape variables) or multiple scale predictors (distribution models + one landscape variable). Our results indicated that distribution models alone had poor predictive abilities but were improved when landscape predictors were added; the species responses were not, however, similar to the multiple scale predictors. Our study thus highlights the importance of considering landscape metrics to generate more accurate habitat suitability models.