Theory and Application of Loss of Life Risk Analysis for Dam Break

The loss of life risk evaluation model for dam break is built in this paper.By using an improved Monte Carlo method,the overtopping probability induced by concurrent flood and wind is calculated,and the Latin Hypercube Sampling is used to generate random numbers.The Graham method is used to calculate the loss of life resulting from dam failure.With Dongwushi reservoir located at Hebei Province taken as an example,the overtopping probability induced by concurrent flood and wind is calculated as 4.77×10-6.Los...

Impact of cancer diagnosis on life expectancy by area-level socioeconomic groups in New South Wales, Australia: a population-based study

Objective: Improvement in cancer survival over recent decades has not been accompanied by a narrowing of socioeconomic disparities. This study aimed to quantify the loss of life expectancy(LOLE) resulting from a cancer diagnosis and examine disparities in LOLE based on area-level socioeconomic status(SES).Methods: Data were collected for all people between 50 and 89 years of age who were diagnosed with cancer, registered in the NSW Cancer Registry between 2001 and 2019, and underwent mortality follow-up evaluations until December 2020. Flexible parametric survival models were fitted to estimate the LOLE by gender and area-level SES for 12 common cancers.Results: Of 422,680 people with cancer, 24% and 18% lived in the most and least disadvantaged areas, respectively. Patients from the most disadvantaged areas had a significantly greater average LOLE than patients from the least disadvantaged areas for cancers with high survival rates, including prostate [2.9 years(95% CI: 2.5±3.2 years) vs. 1.6 years(95% CI: 1.3±1.9 years)] and breast cancer [1.6 years(95% CI: 1.4±1.8 years) vs. 1.2 years(95% CI: 1.0±1.4 years)]. The highest average LOLE occurred in males residing in the most disadvantaged areas with pancreatic [16.5 years(95% CI: 16.1±16.8 years) vs. 16.2 years(95% CI: 15.7±16.7 years)] and liver cancer [15.5 years(95% CI: 15.0±16.0 years) vs. 14.7 years(95% CI: 14.0±15.5 years)]. Females residing in the least disadvantaged areas with thyroid cancer [0.9 years(95% CI: 0.4±1.4 years) vs. 0.6 years(95% CI: 0.2±1.0 years)] or melanoma [0.9 years(95% CI: 0.8±1.1 years) vs. 0.7 years(95% CI: 0.5±0.8 years)] had the lowest average LOLE.Conclusions: Patients from the most disadvantaged areas had the highest LOLE with SES-based differences greatest for patients diagnosed with cancer at an early stage or cancers with higher survival rates, suggesting the need to prioritise early detection and reduce treatment-related barriers and survivorship challenges to improve life expectancy.

Impact of Cerebrovascular Disease Mortality on Life Expectancy in China

Objective To evaluate the impact of cerebrovascular disease mortality on life expectancy （LE） in China in 2010 compared with 2005, and to identify the high-risk population （age, sex, and region） where cerebrovascular disease mortality has had a major impact on LE. Methods LE and cause-eliminated LE were calculated by using standard life tables which used adjusted mortality data from the Death Surveillance Data Sets in 2005 and 2010 from the National Disease Surveillance System. Decomposition was used to quantitate the impact of cerebrovascular disease in different age groups. Results LE in China was 73.24 years in 2010, which was higher in women and urban residents compared with men and rural residents. The loss of LE caused by cerebrovascular disease mortality was 2.26 years, which was higher in men and rural residents compared with women and urban residents. More than 30% of the loss of LE were attributed to premature death from cerebrovascular disease in people aged 〈65 years. Compared with 2005, LE in 2010 increased by 0.92 years. The reduction of cerebrovascular disease mortality in urban residents contributed 0.45 years to the increase of LE, but the increase of cerebrovascular disease mortality caused a 0.12-year loss of LE in rural residents. Conclusion Cerebrovascular disease mortality had a major impact on LE in China, with a significant difference between urban and rural residents. LE is likely to be further increased by reducing cerebrovascular disease mortality, and special attention should be paid to reducing premature deaths in people aged 〈65 years.

Global Effect of Climate Change on Seasonal Cycles,Vector Population and Rising Challenges of Communicable Diseases:A Review

This article explains ongoing changes in global climate and their effect on the resurgence of vector and pathogen populations in various parts of the world.Today,major prevailing changes are the elevation of global temperature and accidental torrent rains,floods,droughts,and loss of productivity and food commodities.Due to the increase in water surface area and the longer presence of flood water,the breeding of insect vectors becomes very high;it is responsible for the emergence and re-emergence of so many communicable diseases.Due to the development of resistance to chemicals in insect pests,and pathogens and lack of control measures,communicable zoonotic diseases are remerging with high infectivity and mortality.This condition is becoming more alarming as the climate is favoring pathogen-host interactions and vector populations.Rapid changes seen in meteorology are promoting an unmanageable array of vector-borne infectious diseases,such as malaria,Japanese encephalitis,filarial,dengue,and leishmaniasis.Similarly,due to unhygienic conditions,poor sanitation,and infected ground and surface water outbreak of enteric infections such as cholera,vibriosis,and rotavirus is seen on the rise.In addition,parasitic infection ascariasis,fasciolosis,schistosomiasis,and dysentery cases are increasing.Today climate change is a major issue and challenge that needs timely quick solutions.Climate change is imposing non-adaptive forced human migration territorial conflicts,decreasing ecosystem productivity,disease outbreaks,and impelling unequal resource utilization.Rapid climate changes,parasites,pathogens,and vector populations are on the rise,which is making great threats to global health and the environment.This article highlighted the necessity to develop new strategies and control measures to cut down rising vector and pathogen populations in endemic areas.For finding quick solutions educational awareness,technology up-gradation,new vaccines,and safety measures have to be adopted to break the cycle of dreadful communicable diseases shortly.

Extension of Distribution Transformer Life in the Presence of Smart Inverter-based Distributed Solar Photovoltaic Systems

A transformer is an essential but expensive power delivery equipment for a distribution utility.In many distribution utilities worldwide,a sizable percentage of transformers are near the end of their designed life.At the same time,distribution utilities are adopting smart inverter-based distributed solar photovoltaic(SPV)systems to maximize renewable generation.The central objective of this paper is to propose a methodology to quantify the effect of smart inverter-based distributed SPV systems on the aging of distribution transformers.The proposed method is first tested on a modified IEEE-123 node distribution feeder.After that,the procedure is applied to a practical distribution system,i.e.,the Indian Institute of Technology(IIT)Roorkee campus,India.The transformer aging models,alongside advanced control functionalities of grid-tied smart inverter-based SPV systems,are implemented in MATLAB.The open-source simulation tool(OpenDSS)is used to model distribution networks.To analyze effectiveness of various inverter functionalities,time-series simulations are performed using exponential load models,considering daily load curves from multiple seasons,load types,current harmonics,etc.Findings show replacing a traditional inverter with a smart inverter-based SPV system can enable local reactive power generation and may extend the life of a distribution transformer.Simulation results demonstrate,simply by incorporating smart inverter-based SPV systems,transformer aging is reduced by 15%to 22%in comparison to SPV systems operating with traditional inverters.

Analysis of Road Traffic Accident Costs in Sudan Using the Human Capital Method

In this study, we used the Human Capital (HC) accident analysis method, to determine the road traffic accident costs in Sudan in two successive years (2010 and 2011) with slight modifications to the recommended and known framework in the way it handles currently and future accident cost components. We evaluated and compared the significance and impact of the economic loss caused by road traffic accidents in Sudan using detailed information on road traffic accident casualties, classified by severity level, vehicle type, and other key parameters such as discount rates and medical and insurance information for Sudan in its entirety. The total cost of road traffic accidents in Sudan in 2010 was estimated at US $391 million, which represents 0.57% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), while in 2011 the cost was calculated to reach US $413 million, representing 0.62% of GDP. Findings show that the amount of accident costs is estimated to a certain extent at less than 1% of the total GDP of the country in the two estimation years, but we believe that the evaluation process used fulfilled the eligibility criteria of HC studies and that the produced values for Sudan are valid and reliable. Unit costs for each crash severity level were also estimated in the two years such as death, disability, serious injury, slight injury, and vehicle damage. Death or fatality was equal to US $38,932 and 39,508;disability was equal to US $43,113 and US $45,165;serious injury was equal to US $6963 and US $7596;slight injury was equal to US $2570 and US $3198 and vehicle damage only was equal to US $2268 and US $2579 in the assessment years 2010 and 2011, respectively.

Markers for Global Climate Change and Its Impact on Social, Biological and Ecological Systems: A Review

Present article sketches out major climate induced changes in marine, aquatic and terrestrial life. Few important biomarkers such as ecological, meteorological, socioeconomic, thermal, biophysical and biological, behavioral markers of climate change and global environmental stress have been highlighted to predict the future challenges and finding appropriate solutions. Though, so many climate change induced effects are visible but few unpredictable effects may be seen in future. Therefore, all such effects have been acknowledged, and tried to find appropriate solutions. Most visible effect is collection of high amounts of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which is responsible for green house effect and causing natural calamities round the globe. It is not only jeopardized the survival of terrestrial, fresh water animals mainly planktons, bottom dwellers;coral reefs, algae, fish fauna in marine environment belong to different taxon but also responsible for disruption of ocean’s food web due to non-assimilation of extra carbon dioxide by the ocean water. There is a sharp decline in fresh water and sea shore micro-flora and micro-fauna. Other major visible effects are loss of biodiversity, depletion of forests, land degradation, severe floods and draughts. On other hand sudden changes in weather conditions causing irreparable devastations due to hurricanes and typhoons, storms, lightening, earthquakes and tsunamis are normally on rise. Both economic and ecological breakdowns are occurring more frequently which are more impactful and persistent. Climate change is major human health stressor;it is making fragmentation of socio-cultural bonds and reducing fertility of soil finally crop production. Climate change is imposing non-adaptive forced human migration, territorial conflicts, decreasing ecosystem productivity, disease out breaks, and impelling unequal resource utilization.