The Ternary Marginal Extension of China's Free Trade Zone Development

This paper attempts to establish a framework of upgrading mechanism in China's foreign economic opening strate莒y in order to conclude the new connotation of upgrade for China's foreign economic opening,with the basic starting point of ternary marginal extension on extensive growth,in the perspective of corporate heterogeneity theory.It also involves the new path of the transformation from"quantity1'to"quality"regarding the amounts,models and locations of China's foreign trade and investment.At last,this theoretical frame is complemented upon a case study of free trade zone and regional cooperation of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao.

The trade margins of Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN and their determinants

How do Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN（Association of Southeast Asian Nations） evolve？ And what factors affected the evolution pattern？ This study measures the trade margins of Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN by utilizing the 2000-2015 Harmonized System＇s six-digit agricultural trade data, and further analyzes their determinants by developing an augmented gravity model of international trade. The results indicate that, the main growth source of Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN has shifted from the extensive margin before the formal establishment of CAFTA（China-ASEAN Free Trade Area） in 2010 to the intensive margin since the formal establishment of CAFTA, but changes in Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN have always mainly depended on the intensive margin. Since the formal establishment of CAFTA, the evolution pattern of Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN has shifted from ＂more varieties, low price, and small quantity＂ to ＂less varieties, high price, and large quantity＂. Relative economic scale, relative population scale, capacity of agricultural export, trade integration, global financial crisis, and common border significantly affect the trade margins of Chinese agricultural exports to ASEAN.

Analysis on the Level of Intra-industry Trade for ASEAN＇s Economy

This paper aims to examine and analyse the level of intra-industry trade on economy of ASEAN. These data obtained from the accurate and reliable source of ASEAN Trade Statistics databases. The importance of intra-industry and measurement is also described. Moreover, the linkage of intra-industry trade and investment liberalization under the ASEAN Economic Community （AEC） is also explained. The effective enhancement schemed to increase the competitiveness of specific industries had been proposed to enhance ASEAN to be efficient production hub and network of region that lead to the ultimate goal of single market. The further studies can be applied to construct and estimate the econometric model and forecasting technique to confirm the empirical results.

Country-level Determinants of Intra-industry Trade （liT） between China and Sri Lanka

This study is based on country level determinants of liT between China and Sri Lanka. Multiple regression analysis was used to analyze the data in this study. Determinants of IIT from Sri Lanka to China do not depend upon economic growth rate, per capita income and size of GDP. However, variables like index of openness, size of the economy, per capita income, size of GDP, factor endowment, foreign direct investments have positive impact on IIT from Sri Lanka to China. Economic growth rate, index of openness, size of the economy, factor endowment, foreign direct investments were found to be positively related with intensity of IIT from China to Sri Lanka.

Does Margin Trading Enhance Information Efficiency of the Capital Market?——Evidence from China

On March 31,2010,China formally introduced a margin trading system,which announced that China's capital market has completed the transformation from a unilateral transaction model to a bilateral transaction model with a short-selling mechanism.However,the current development of China's margin trading and securities lending businesses is seriously unbalanced,and the scale of financing far exceeds the scale of securities lending.The short selling effect of securities lending exchanges is extremely limited,which to some extent violates the original intention of introducing the system.In order to help margin trading and securities lending to correct a healthy and sustainable development path,this article uses stock price synchronicity as a proxy indicator to measure the information efficiency of the capital market,explores the impact of the margin trading system on the information efficiency of the capital market,and study the detailed characteristics and economic consequences of the margin trading system.Aiming at this topic,this article analyzes the relationship between margin financing and securities lending and stock price synchronicity.Finally,it analyzes the influence of margin financing and securities lending system on stock price synchronicity from three dimensions of corporate governance,external supervision,and institutional environment mechanism.In terms of empirical research,this article takes advantage of the“quasi-natural experiment”provided by the gradual opening of margin trading and securities lending in China’s securities market,and selects listed companies on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2007 to 2019 as the research objects,starting from the perspective of stock price synchronicity,and passing The DID-FE model studies the impact of the margin trading and securities lending system on the information efficiency of the capital market.It uses three methods:parallel trend and dynamic testing,PSM-DID analysis,and placebo testing for robustness testing to solve the endogeneity problem of the experiment.This article also conducts deeper research on the subject based on the two dimensions of the impact mechanism of margin financing and securities lending and the size of the company,and finally discusses the economic impact of margin financing and securities lending on the level of company innovation.

贸易便利化对黄河流域农产品出口二元边际影响的空间效应

随着经济全球化和国际贸易的发展,贸易便利化逐渐成为全球经贸新规则的核心要素。本文基于经济双循环和黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展的内在要求,通过构建指标体系综合评估沿黄九省区的贸易便利化水平,利用二元边际效应,对贸易便利化的构成要素在不同贸易增长维度上的作用进行了细化分解,并对影响的空间效应进行分析。研究发现,以基础设施质量、商务信息技术效率、海关与贸易环境、政府管理水平、金融服务质量表征的贸易便利化水平,均对黄河流域贸易的集约边际表现出正向的促进作用,且影响显著。

贸易便利化、三元边际效应与中国农产品贸易出口的关系——基于上合组织成员国的实证分析

贸易便利化对于中国农产品贸易出口、深化与其他国家的贸易合作有着深刻的战略意义。文章在三元边际分解框架下,借助多重中介模型研究上合组织成员国贸易便利化对中国农产品出口的影响机制。实证结果表明:(1)上合组织成员国贸易便利化水平提高会促进中国农产品出口数量增长和种类多元化,进而扩大农产品出口规模;(2)基础设施、海关环境、规制环境、电子商务4个指标对中国农产品出口均有积极影响,其中电子商务的促进作用最强,同时四者对中国农产品出口三元边际的影响呈现差异性;(3)农产品异质性检验表明,上合组织成员国贸易便利化水平的提升对中国动物类产品的出口促进作用最大,其次是食品类产品,对植物类产品和油类产品出口无显著影响。鉴于此,提出了相应的建议。

融资融券与上证50ETF期权收益

基于我国融资融券交易不平衡的实际情况,本文利用2015—2021年我国上证50ETF期权市场数据,实证检验了融资融券交易活动对期权收益的影响。研究发现:由于市场上看多交易方式丰富,融资交易对看涨期权收益的影响不大;而受卖空限制影响,融券交易活动越活跃,未来一个月看跌期权的收益越低。此外,融券交易活动对看跌期权收益的影响在经济不景气、投资者情绪低迷以及标的市场收益率为负的子样本中更明显,但该影响并不是长期持续的。进一步分析表明,融券交易活动增加会显著提高看跌期权的持仓量,但对看涨期权收益并不会产生显著影响。研究结论为中国融资融券市场和期权市场之间的可能联系提供了证据,为后续的跨市场研究以及监管措施的制定提供了一定的参考价值。

加入世贸组织以来中国丝绸出口的变动特征分析

利用贸易增长的三元分析方法,基于2001—2020年中国对主要丝绸出口国的面板数据,对加入世贸组织(WTO)后中国丝绸出口的变动特征,从总体、双边和出口品类3个维度进行实证分析。结果表明,中国对主要丝绸出口市场的出口份额受集约边际的影响大于拓展边际,数量效应大于价格效应,丝绸出口存在数量优势大、出口品类完整但价格优势小的特点,中国对主要出口市场的丝绸出口仍“以量取胜”,亟待提高产品定价话语权。就出口品类而言,中国对主要出口市场丝类商品出口贸易的边际结构比较稳定,中国丝类商品在主要出口市场渗透率的影响,市场拓展效应大于出口数量效应大于出口价格效应。

市场激励型环境规制与企业风险承担——以碳排放权交易试点政策为例

提升企业的风险承担水平是市场激励型环境规制促使企业实现绿色转型的重要保障。以中国碳排放权交易试点政策为对象进行研究,构建了一个反映企业碳排放权交易行为的理论模型,探讨碳排放权交易如何影响轻(重)污染企业的风险承担水平。理论研究表明,碳排放权交易有助于引导企业研发创新、降低生产成本和提高利润,最终提升企业风险承担水平。实证结果显示,市场激励型环境规制显著提高了碳排放权交易试点地区企业的风险承担水平,且主要提高轻污染、非国有和东部地区等样本组企业的风险承担水平。机制检验表明,市场激励型环境规制通过提高企业研发创新、生产率和利润率提升企业风险承担水平,并且市场激励型环境规制对轻污染企业研发创新、生产率和利润率的促进作用大于重污染企业。因此,面对环境治理压力,企业应当主动承担碳排放权交易带来的机会和挑战,通过研发创新提升自身的风险承担能力。

基于中美战略博弈视角的资本市场做空机制比较研究

中美关系是当今世界上最为重要的国家间关系,值此百年未有之大变局,金融作为现代经济的制高点,近年来加剧竞争的大国博弈日益转向非传统的经济金融领域。自2021年以来,在美中概股不断遭遇市场做空,已严重影响我国的海外金融利益。本文通过分析中美博弈发展历程及演化机制,尤其是拜登政府执政以来的对华政策,比较研究了中美资本市场做空机制的做空主体、做空模式、监管制度、引发风险及其对我国的影响。本文研究为我国面对复杂多变的国际环境如何始终保持定力,有效应对美国对我国实施资本市场做空的持续打压提供理论支撑。

中国式融资融券制度能够抑制研发操纵吗?——基于“准自然实验”的经验证据

资本市场交易制度与公司治理有机联动对于助推经济高质量发展具有重要意义。基于2008—2021年中国沪深A股上市公司数据,利用中国融资融券标的分步扩容的准自然实验,实证检验融资融券外部监管对公司内部研发操纵的治理效应。研究发现,融资融券这一资本市场交易制度的完善举措显著抑制了公司研发操纵,且该抑制效应在非国有、融资约束更高、内部控制质量更低及分析师关注度更低的公司中更为明显。机制检验表明,融资融券制度通过信息传递效应与注意力集聚效应对研发操纵产生影响。

融资融券扩容的风险溢出效应与治理研究

本文以我国融资融券的制度改革为背景,考察了渐进式扩容的金融风险溢出效应及治理机制。研究发现,随着行业中融资融券标的股票比例上升,同行业股票价格崩盘风险显著增加,表明融资融券不仅直接影响标的股票的价格波动,还可能将风险溢出到同行业其他股票中。机制分析发现,风险溢出效应主要由融资交易造成。进一步的分析表明,较高的会计信息质量,或较好的信息环境,或投资者较强的信息搜集与处理能力,均有助于缓解风险溢出效应。本文的研究结论为今后制定与实施金融监管政策、防范系统性金融风险提供了一定的启示。

技术性贸易壁垒与出口边际扩张——基于三元边际的研究视角

本文基于2000-2018年全球技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)通报信息和HS6分位贸易数据,在HS4分位上计算了68个国家发布的TBT通报的进口覆盖率,并运用Hummels和Klenow方法,对133个出口国的贸易份额进行三元边际分解。在此基础上,采用扩展引力模型分析框架和Ⅳ-2SLS估计方法,从全球多元视角对TBT影响出口三元边际的作用方式和异质性效应进行深入研究。结果表明,TBT对留存出口国的广延边际和数量边际具有显著的正向影响。这种扩张效应抵消了价格边际受到的抑制效应,从而促进了出口份额的整体增长。进一步分析表明,上述由TBT实施带来的边际调整并非仅限于影响被通报产品本身,其关联产品也会因外溢效应而受到类似影响;在不同行业与国别类型之间也存在明显差异。此外,TBT对出口的扩张效应会随出口国政府效能水平的提高而减弱;这种扩张效应主要存在于2008年之前。本文的研究为“新时代”中国健全和完善TBT应对体系和科学评估TBT政策效果,为推进高水平对外开放和促进经济高质量发展,提供了重要的实证支持和政策参考。

数字基础设施对出口二元边际的影响研究——基于长三角省际数据

本文基于2015—2019年长三角地区四个省份与全球159个国家的出口数据,通过构建数字基础设施发展水平指标,深入探讨了数字基础设施与出口二元边际之间的关系。本文引入了两个替换变量来验证结果的稳健性。研究表明,数字基础设施的完善不仅对出口扩展边际的增长具有显著促进作用,还推动了出口集约边际的扩张。进一步的异质性分析显示,长三角地区的数字基础设施完善在促进与发展中国家的出口贸易增长方面成效显著,然而,与发达国家的出口贸易合作深度却在一定程度上受到了抑制。基于此,本文提出应加快数字基础设施建设步伐,积极营造数字贸易发展空间。同时,应努力消除与发达国家之间的贸易壁垒,缩小“数字鸿沟”,以推动出口贸易向更高质量的方向发展。

Impact of Trade Promotion Agencies on China's Export Binary Marginal Growth

On the basis of the new-new trade theory, this paper makes use of the micro-level export data of China's international trade with sixteen major trading partners from CEPII BACI international trade database of1996-2011 and decomposes the total export growth into the intensive margin and expansion margin, so as to conduct an empirical analysis of the impact of trade promotion agency on China's export binary marginal growth with the GMM dynamic panel data model estimation method. The results show that trade promotion agency has a significant positive impact on the intensive margin and expansion margin of export growth,the promoting effect on the export growth expansion margin is greater than that on the intensive margin.The trade promotion committees can play more significant role in promoting export than embassies and consulates stationed abroad. The promoting effect of trade promotion agencies on export growth binary margin of medium and high-tech industry products is larger than that on the medium and lower technology industry products. Therefore, China should increase the number of trade promotion agencies, in particular,have more Trade Promotion Committees.

进口国知识产权保护对中国ICT出口的影响研究——基于三元边际视角

随着国际贸易环境日趋复杂化和动态化,知识产权保护已成为影响产品出口的重要因素,尤其是专利密集型产品;而深入研究出口的边际效应实质上是在分析贸易流动的深层次成因。基于此,本文选取2008—2022年中国ICT产品和16个国家之间的出口贸易数据,以三元边际为视角,运用引力模型实证考察进口国知识产权保护对中国ICT产品出口的影响。结果显示,进口国知识产权保护水平的提升有利于中国ICT产品出口,对出口的扩展边际、数量边际和价格边际均有一定影响,进一步对实证结果研究发现,我国ICT产品出口主要通过数量边际效应拉动增长。

环境规制距离对中国农产品出口的影响研究——基于三元边际的视角

在农产品贸易领域,与环境规制紧密相关的绿色贸易壁垒已成为进口国保护本国利益的一个重要工具,而出口国亦将环境规制水平的提升视为融入全球价值链的重要抓手。因此,环境规制对农产品贸易的影响不仅仅和进出口国各自的规制水平有关,更关乎两国环境规制水平的差距。本文基于CEPII-BACI数据库2002—2022年中国对45个主要出口目的国的农产品贸易数据,定量评估双边环境规制距离对农产品贸易三元边际的影响。结果表明:缩小双边环境规制距离能显著促进中国农产品出口扩展边际、价格边际、数量边际的增长,进一步地,环境规制距离的三元边际贸易效应在我国对发达国家农产品出口中表现更为明显,强于对发展中国家出口的影响。基于此,本文提出促进我国农产品国际贸易高质量发展的相关政策建议,以供参考。

融资融券交易的市场冲击效应研究——基于中国台湾证券市场的经验与启示

融资融券交易是证券市场的重要组成部分,它的推出会对整个市场产生何种影响是非常值得研究的问题。文章利用中国台湾证券市场的融资融券交易数据,从市场流动性与波动性角度研究融资融券交易对整个市场的冲击效应。研究结果表明,融资买空交易有助于提升整个市场的流动性水平,在一定程度上可以改善市场流动性水平相对不足的状况,但融券卖空交易对市场流动性水平没有显著影响;融资买空与融券卖空交易并未显著影响整个市场的波动性水平。文章建议证券监管部门可以将融资融券交易保证金率作为市场调控工具,通过适时调整保证金率调控整个市场,避免市场出现大幅震荡。

融资融券交易与市场价格发现——基于盈余公告漂移的实证分析

融资融券的推出是中国证券市场交易制度的一次结构性的变革,本文以第一批可以融资融券的90只股票为样本,选取盈余公告漂移异象作为研究标的,从理论和实践角度检验融资融券推出对市场价格发现的影响作用。我们发现,融资融券的推出使得投资者有更多的选择和手段对市场信息做出及时反应,A股市场的一个市场异象盈余公告漂移在融资融券后有显著减弱。最后本文利用融资融券制度的可卖空和杠杆交易特征构造了基于盈余漂移的交易策略。