Marginal Conceptual Predictive Statistic for Mixed Model Selection

We focus on the development of model selection criteria in linear mixed models. In particular, we propose the model selection criteria following the Mallows’ Conceptual Predictive Statistic (Cp) [1] [2] in linear mixed models. When correlation exists between the observations in data, the normal Gauss discrepancy in univariate case is not appropriate to measure the distance between the true model and a candidate model. Instead, we define a marginal Gauss discrepancy which takes the correlation into account in the mixed models. The model selection criterion, marginal Cp, called MCp, serves as an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the expected marginal Gauss discrepancy. An improvement of MCp, called IMCp, is then derived and proved to be a more accurate estimator of the expected marginal Gauss discrepancy than MCp. The performance of the proposed criteria is investigated in a simulation study. The simulation results show that in small samples, the proposed criteria outperform the Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) [3] [4] and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) [5] in selecting the correct model;in large samples, their performance is competitive. Further, the proposed criteria perform significantly better for highly correlated response data than for weakly correlated data.

WOMBAT—A tool for mixed model analyses in quantitative genetics by restricted maximum likelihood (REML)

WOMBAT is a software package for quantitative genetic analyses of continuous traits, fitting a linear, mixed model; estimates of covariance components and the resulting genetic parameters are obtained by restricted maximum likelihood. A wide range of models, comprising numerous traits, multiple fixed and random effects, selected genetic covariance structures, random regression models and reduced rank estimation are accommodated. WOMBAT employs up-to-date numerical and computational methods. Together with the use of efficient compilers, this generates fast executable programs, suitable for large scale analyses. Use of WOMBAT is illustrated for a bivariate analysis. The package consists of the executable program, available for LINUX and WINDOWS environments, manual and a set of worked example, and can be downloaded free of charge from http：//agbu. une.edu.au/-kmeyer/wombat.html

Analysis of Mixed Model in Gear Transmission Based on ADAMS

The traditional method of mechanical gear driving simulation includes gear pair method and solid to solid contact method. The former has higher solving efficiency but lower results accuracy; the latter usually obtains higher precision of results while the calculation process is complex, also it is not easy to converge. Currently, most of the researches are focused on the description of geometric models and the definition of boundary conditions. However, none of them can solve the problems fundamentally. To improve the simulation efficiency while ensure the results with high accuracy, a mixed model method which uses gear tooth profiles to take the place of the solid gear to simulate gear movement is presented under these circumstances. In the process of modeling, build the solid models of the mechanism in the SolidWorks firstly; Then collect the point coordinates of outline curves of the gear using SolidWorks API and create fit curves in Adams based on the point coordinates; Next, adjust the position of those fitting curves according to the position of the contact area; Finally, define the loading conditions, boundary conditions and simulation parameters. The method provides gear shape information by tooth profile curves; simulates the mesh process through tooth profile curve to curve contact and offer mass as well as inertia data via solid gear models. This simulation process combines the two models to complete the gear driving analysis. In order to verify the validity of the method presented, both theoretical derivation and numerical simulation on a runaway escapement are conducted. The results show that the computational efficiency of the mixed model method is 1.4 times over the traditional method which contains solid to solid contact. Meanwhile, the simulation results are more closely to theoretical calculations. Consequently, mixed model method has a high application value regarding to the study of the dynamics of gear mechanism.

IMPROVED ESTIMATES OF THE COVARIANCE MATRIX IN GENERAL LINEAR MIXED MODELS

In this article, the problem of estimating the covariance matrix in general linear mixed models is considered. Two new classes of estimators obtained by shrinking the eigenvalues towards the origin and the arithmetic mean, respectively, are proposed. It is shown that these new estimators dominate the unbiased estimator under the squared error loss function. Finally, some simulation results to compare the performance of the proposed estimators with that of the unbiased estimator are reported. The simulation results indicate that these new shrinkage estimators provide a substantial improvement in risk under most situations.

Software applications for providing comprehensive computing capabilities to problems related to mixed models in animal breeding

Several computer packages have been developed to accomplish improved programs for animal breeding and genetic selection. This paper described most of the currant software and provided suggestions for improved software. Khon Kaen University, Thailand, will provide free of charge the new software developed at Khon Kaen University by the author of this paper. The contact for requesting the software is listed: monchai@kku.ac.th.

A Mixed Model Analysis of a Fertilizer Experiment on Oil Palm in Nigeria

Mixed model analysis procedure was used to analyze the effect of fertilizer application on the Fresh Fruit Bunch (FFB) yield of oil palm. This was with a view to achieve the most appropriate and a robust model for analyzing yield response for fertilizer application in oil palm. In this study, a mixed model analysis procedure was used to analyze yield data obtained from a fertilizer trial conducted between 1997 and 2005. In mixed effect model, replicates and years were used as block. In contrast the fixed effect ANOVA model usually lumped up replicates and years as a random error. In the model replicates were used as block with no block interaction, replicates as block with allowance for block-fertilizer interaction, years as block with allowance for block-fertilizer interaction, and years and replicates as block with allowance for year fertilizer and replicate-fertilizer interaction. Mixed model theory was also used to provide the explicit description of the design matrices in the models. Also, hypotheses relevant to each model were formulated and used to test for specific effects in the models such as, fixed part, random part and interacting parts using appropriate error terms as determined by the derived Expected Mean Squares (EMS). The results revealed that at 5% significant level (p

Nonparametric Estimation in Linear Mixed Models with Uncorrelated Homoscedastic Errors

Today, Linear Mixed Models (LMMs) are fitted, mostly, by assuming that random effects and errors have Gaussian distributions, therefore using Maximum Likelihood (ML) or REML estimation. However, for many data sets, that double assumption is unlikely to hold, particularly for the random effects, a crucial component in which assessment of magnitude is key in such modeling. Alternative fitting methods not relying on that assumption (as ANOVA ones and Rao’s MINQUE) apply, quite often, only to the very constrained class of variance components models. In this paper, a new computationally feasible estimation methodology is designed, first for the widely used class of 2-level (or longitudinal) LMMs with only assumption (beyond the usual basic ones) that residual errors are uncorrelated and homoscedastic, with no distributional assumption imposed on the random effects. A major asset of this new approach is that it yields nonnegative variance estimates and covariance matrices estimates which are symmetric and, at least, positive semi-definite. Furthermore, it is shown that when the LMM is, indeed, Gaussian, this new methodology differs from ML just through a slight variation in the denominator of the residual variance estimate. The new methodology actually generalizes to LMMs a well known nonparametric fitting procedure for standard Linear Models. Finally, the methodology is also extended to ANOVA LMMs, generalizing an old method by Henderson for ML estimation in such models under normality.

Linear Mixed Model Analysis of Worldwide Longitudinal Infant Mortality Rate Data and Association with Human Development Index

A linear mixed model is used to determine the explaining infant mortality rate data of United Nations countries. The HDI （human development index） has a significant negative linear relationship with infant mortality rate. United Nations data shows that the infant mortality rate has a descending trend over the period 1990-2010. This study aims to assess the value of the HDI as a predictor of infant mortality rate. Findings in the paper suggest that significant percentage reductions in infant mortality might be possible for countries for controlling the HDI.

Combined Selection in Backcross Population of Papaya(Carica papaya L.)by the Mixed Model Methodology

The selection of superior genotypes based on the simultaneous response to several characteristics of agronomic importance is a key strategy to overcome the scarcity of available varieties of papaya. This study aimed to apply the combined selection by using distinct selection indexes based on both the genetic values obtained by the REML/BLUP methodology and the real measured values to select agronomically superior genotypes of papaya within backcross progenies. The combined selection was carried out based on genetic and phenotypic values, original and standardized, multiplied by the agronomic weights. The results of the analysis of genetic parameters indicate that the evaluated progenies have expressive genetic variability for the considered traits, and that there are real possibilities of genetic progress with the selection. Among the analyzed indexes, the one based on standardized genetic value presented greater consistency in the ranking of genetic material, demonstrating the advantage of data standardization. Five progenies belonging to the BC1 generation, and five to the BC3 generation were selected using this index. A total of 27 plants ag-ronomically superior were selected within the top five progenies and recommended for generation advance, 23 being selected by combined selection and 4 using the direct selection for the four mainly characters in papaya breeding program: production, pulp and fruit firmness and soluble solids. Beyond the selection of superior genotypes for the development of future inbred lines, this study also allowed defining the best strategy to apply the combined selection in papaya using pre-dicted breeding values obtained by BLUP. This strategy may allow higher accuracy in the selection process, thus increasing the chances of success of the breeding programs.

Solving Level Scheduling in Mixed Model Assembly Line by Simulated Annealing Method

This paper presents an application of the simulated annealing algorithm to solve level schedules in mixed model assembly line. Solving production sequences with both number of setups and material usage rates to the minimum rate will optimize the level schedule. Miltenburg algorithm (1989) is first used to get seed sequence to optimize further. For this the utility time of the line and setup time requirement on each station is considered. This seed sequence is optimized by simulated annealing. This investigation helps to understand the importance of utility in the assembly line. Up to 15 product sequences are taken and constructed by using randomizing method and find the objective function value for this. For a sequence optimization, a meta-heuristic seems much more promising to guide the search into feasible regions of the solution space. Simulated annealing is a stochastic local search meta-heuristic, which bases the acceptance of a modified neighboring solution on a probabilistic scheme inspired by thermal processes for obtaining low-energy states in heat baths. Experimental results show that the simulated annealing approach is favorable and competitive compared to Miltenburg’s constructive algorithm for the problems set considered. It is proposed to found 16,985 solutions, the time taken for computation is 23.47 to 130.35, and the simulated annealing improves 49.33% than Miltenberg.

STUDY ON MIXED MODEL OF NEURAL NETWORK FOR FARMLAND FLOOD/DROUGHT PREDICTION

The paper concerns a flood/drought prediction model involving the continuation of time series of a predictand and the physical factors influencing the change of predictand.Attempt is made to construct the model by the neural network scheme for the nonlinear mapping relation based on multi-input and single output.The model is found of steadily higher predictive accuracy by testing the output from one and multiple stepwise predictions against observations and comparing the results to those from a traditional statistical model.

A compressed variance component mixed model for detecting QTNs and QTN-by-environment and QTN-by-QTN interactions in genome-wide association studies

Although genome-wide association studies are widely used to mine genes for quantitative traits,the effects to be estimated are confounded,and the methodologies for detecting interactions are imperfect.To address these issues,the mixed model proposed here first estimates the genotypic effects for AA,Aa,and aa,and the genotypic polygenic background replaces additive and dominance polygenic backgrounds.Then,the estimated genotypic effects are partitioned into additive and dominance effects using a one-way analysis of variance model.This strategy was further expanded to cover QTN-by-environment interactions(QEIs)and QTN-by-QTN interactions(QQIs)using the same mixed-model framework.Thus,a three-variance-component mixed model was integrated with our multi-locus random-SNP-effect mixed linear model(mrMLM)method to establish a new methodological framework,3VmrMLM,that detects all types of loci and estimates their effects.In Monte Carlo studies,3VmrMLM correctly detected all types of loci and almost unbiasedly estimated their effects,with high powers and accuracies and a low false positive rate.In re-analyses of 10 traits in 1439 rice hybrids,detection of 269 known genes,45 known gene-by-environment interactions,and 20 known gene-by-gene interactions strongly validated 3VmrMLM.Further analyses of known genes showed more small(67.49%),minor-allele-frequency(35.52%),and pleiotropic(30.54%)genes,with higher repeatability across datasets(54.36%)and more dominance loci.In addition,a heteroscedasticity mixed model in multiple environments and dimension reduction methods in quite a number of environments were developed to detect QEIs,and variable selection under a polygenic background was proposed for QQI detection.This study provides a new approach for revealing the genetic architecture of quantitative traits.

Inferences in Linear Mixed Models with Skew-normal Random Effects

For the linear mixed model with skew-normal random effects, this paper gives the density function, moment generating function and independence conditions. The noncentral skew chi-square distribution is defined and its density function is shown. The necessary and sufficient conditions under which a quadratic form is distributed as noncentral skew chi-square distribution are obtained. Also, a version of Cochran＇s theorem is given~ which modifies the result of Wang et al. （2009） and is used to set up exact tests for fixed effects and variance components of the proposed model. For illustration, our main results are applied to a real data problem.

Local and generalized height-diameter models with random parameters for mixed,uneven-aged forests in Northwestern Durango,Mexico

Background:We used mixed models with random components to develop height-diameter(h-d) functions for mixed,uneven-aged stands in northwestern Durango(Mexico),considering the breast height diameter(d) and stand variables as predictors.Methods:The data were obtained from 44 permanent plots used to monitor stand growth under forest management in the study area.Results:The generalized Bertalanffy-Richards model performed better than the other generalized models in predicting the total height of the species under study.For the genera Pinus and Quercus,the models were successfully calibrated by measuring the height of a subsample of three randomly selected trees close to the mean d,whereas for species of the genera Cupressus,Arbutus and Alnus,three trees were also selected,but they are specifically the maximum,minimum and mean d trees.Conclusions:The presented equations represent a new tool for the evaluation and management of natural forest in the region.

Reliability Analysis of a Mixed Redundant Model in C 3I System

Aim To define a mixed redundant model(MRM), improving the reliability of C 3I system. Methods The model combined the technology characters of two? unit system with one warm stand by unit and function substitute system. The reliability and availability equations of MRM were deduced. Results and Conclusion Compared with several other reliability models, it has obvious effect upon improving the system reliability. The effect? cost rate is very high among these models. The model can be used in reliability design, evaluation and check of C 3I system. Only a little attached cost is needed to improve C 3I system reliability effectively.

THEORETICAL BASIS AND GENERAL OPTIMAL FORMULATIONS OF ISOPARAMETRIC GENERALIZED HYBRID/MIXED ELEMENT MODEL FOR IMPROVED STRESS ANALYSIS

By the modified three-field Hu-Washizu principle, this paper establishes a theoretical founda- tion and general convenient formulations to generate convergent stable generalized hybrid/mixed cle- ment (GH/ME) model which is invariant with respect to coordinate, insensitive to geometric distortion and suitable for improved stress computation. In the two proposed formulations, the stress equilibrium and orthogonality constraints are imposed through incompatible displacement and internal strain modes respectively. The proposed model by the general formulations in this paper is characterized by including as- sumed stress/strain, assumed stress, variable-node, singular, compatible and incompatible GH/ME models. When using regular meshes or the constant values of the isoparametric Jacobian Det in the assumed strain in- terpolation, the incompatible GH/ME model degenerates to the hybrid/mixed element model. Both general and concrete guidelines for the optimal selection of element shape functions are suggested. By means of the GH/ME theory in this paper, a family of new GH/ME can be and have been easily constructed. The software can also be developed conveniently because all the standard subroutines for the corresponding isoparametric displacement elements can be utilized directly.

Strategic Robust Mixed Model Assembly Line Balancing Based on Scenario Planning

Assembly line balancing involves assigning a series of task elements to uniform sequential stations with certain restrictions. Decision makers often discover that a task assignment which is optimal with respect to a deterministic or stochastic/fuzzy model yields quite poor performance in reality. In real environments, assembly line balancing robustness is a more appropriate decision selection guide. A robust model based on the α worst case scenario is developed to compensate for the drawbacks of traditional robust criteria. A robust genetic algorithm is used to solve the problem. Comprehensive computational experiments to study the effect of the solution procedure show that the model generates more flexible robust solutions. Careful tuning the value of α allows the decision maker to balance robustness and conservativeness of as- sembly line task element assignments.

Effect of climate factors on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Malaysia: A generalized additive mixed model

Climate change is one of the critical determinants affecting life cycles and transmission of most infectious agents,including malaria,cholera,dengue fever,hand,foot,and mouth disease(HFMD),and the recent Corona-virus pandemic.HFMD has been associated with a growing number of outbreaks resulting in fatal complications since the late 1990s.The outbreaks may result from a combination of rapid population growth,climate change,socioeconomic changes,and other lifestyle changes.However,the modeling of climate variability and HFMD remains unclear,particularly in statistical theory development.The statistical relationship between HFMD and climate factors has been widely studied using generalized linear and additive modeling.When dealing with time-series data with clustered variables such as HFMD with clustered states,the independence principle of both modeling approaches may be violated.Thus,a Generalized Additive Mixed Model(GAMM)is used to investigate the relationship between HFMD and climate factors in Malaysia.The model is improved by using a first-order autoregressive term and treating all Malaysian states as a random effect.This method is preferred as it allows states to be modeled as random effects and accounts for time series data autocorrelation.The findings indicate that climate variables such as rainfall and wind speed affect HFMD cases in Malaysia.The risk of HFMD increased in the subsequent two weeks with rainfall below 60 mm and decreased with rainfall exceeding 60 mm.Besides,a two-week lag in wind speeds between 2 and 5 m/s reduced HFMD's chances.The results also show that HFMD cases rose in Malaysia during the inter-monsoon and southwest monsoon seasons but fell during the northeast monsoon.The study's outcomes can be used by public health officials and the general public to raise awareness,and thus,implement effective preventive measures.

IMPROVED ANOVAE OF THE COVARIANCE MATRIX IN GENERAL LINEAR MIXED MODELS

In this paper, the problem of estimating the covariance matrix in general linear mixed models is considered. A new class of estimators is proposed. It is shown that this new estimator dominates the analysis of variance estimate under two squared loss functions. Finally, some simulation results to compare the performance of the proposed estimator with that of the analysis of variance estimate are reported. The simulation results indicate that this new estimator provides a substantial improvement in risk under most situations.

Mixed Model for Silt-Laden Solid-Liquid Two-Phase Flows

The kinetic theory of molecular gases was used to derive the governing equations for dense solid-liquid two-phase flows from a microscopic flow characteristics viewpoint by multiplying the Boltzmann equation for each phase by property parameters and integrating over the velocity space. The particle collision term was derived from microscopic terms by comparison with dilute two-phase flow but with consideration of the collisions between particles for dense two-phase flow conditions and by assuming that the particle-phase velocity distribution obeys the Maxwell equations. Appropriate terms from the dilute two-phase governing equations were combined with the dense particle collision term to develop the governing equations for dense solid-liquid turbulent flows. The SIMPLEC algorithm and a staggered grid system were used to solve the discretized two-phase governing equations with a Reynolds averaged turbulence model. Dense solid-liquid turbulent two-phase flows were simulated for flow in a duct. The simulation results agree well with experimental data.