Dynamic evaluation of traffic flows on city roads

This paper presents an analysis of the random fluctuations, deferred conduction effect and periodicity of road traffic based on the basic features of road networks. It also discusses the limitations of road network evaluation theories based on road "V/C". In addition, it proposes a set of theoretical and technical methods for the real-time evaluation of traffic flows for entire road networks, and for solving key technical issues, such as real-time data collection and processing in areas with no blind zones, the spatial-temporal dynamic analysis of road network traffic, and the calibration of key performance index thresholds. It also provides new technical tools for the strategic transportation planning and real-time diagnosis of road traffic. The new tools and methodology presented in this paper are validated using a case study in Beijing.

Traffic organization during urban road constructions

This research presented a bi-level programming approach to optimize the schedule of ur- ban road construction activities based on a hypothetical transport network, with an objective of mini- mizing the overall traffic delays. A heuristic algorithm was utilized to identify a set of road construction schedules, while PARAMICS was adopted to estimate the total travel time in the network under each road construction scenario. To test the performance of proposed heuristics-simulation methodology, a numerical test was implemented. The overall results suggested that the proposed methodol- ogy could quickly find the optimum solution with good convergence.

Perspective of Adaptive CN System for Forecasting Congestion of Road Traffic Flow

Basing upon the Weber-Fechner Law with respect to the stimulus (distance-headway) to the vehicle driver and the driver’s sensation (speed), the characteristic speed Vβ is defined, which is the critical vehicles flow speed just before going to congestion in road traffic flow. From the information of real time measurement of traffic flow speed (V) and time-headway (T) at the specific positions along the road, the value of Vβ is calculated and used for forecasting the flow. Discussed is how to use each Vβ to forecast the congestion. The CN system devoted to the management of road traffic flow is proposed. The idea may contribute not only to easing the traffic flow but also to optimizing it to get high efficient traffic flow.

A Novel Network Screening Methodology for Rural Low-Volume Roads

Low-volume roads (LVRs) are an integral part of the rural transportation network providing access to remote rural areas and facilitating the movement of goods from farms to markets. These roads pose unique challenges for highway agencies including those related to safety management on the highway network. Specifically, traditional network screening methods using crash history can be effective in screening rural highways with higher traffic volumes and more frequent crashes. However, these traditional methods are often ineffective in screening LVR networks due to low traffic volumes and the sporadic nature of crash occurrence. Further, many of the LVRs are owned and operated by local agencies that may lack access to detailed crash, traffic and roadway data and the technical expertise within their staff. Therefore, there is a need for more efficient and practical network screening approaches to facilitate safety management programs on these roads. This study proposes one such approach which utilizes a heuristic scoring scheme in assessing the level of risk/safety for the purpose of network screening. The proposed scheme is developed based on the principles of US Highway Safety Manual (HSM) analysis procedures for rural highways and the fundamentals in safety science. The primary application of the proposed scheme is for ranking sites in network screening applications or for comparing multiple improvement alternatives at a specific site. The proposed approach does not require access to detailed databases, technical expertise, or exact information, making it an invaluable tool for small agencies and local governments (e.g. counties, townships, tribal governments, etc.).

Effect of Residential Quarters Opening on Urban Traffic from the View of Mathematical Modeling

With the great prosperity of national economy, there has been a dramatic rise of vehicles on city road, which makes increasing pressure of road transportation. Currently, many countries are confronting the severe situation of traffic jam in different degrees. Nevertheless, there are many triggers contributing to this congestion, one of which is the blocking of residential quarters towards vital traffic line. Therefore, it is extremely necessary to study whether the opening of residential quarters can improve the road capacity of the entire city and remit the traffic pressure. Our paper is based on graph theory, density theory and random utility theory. First of all, we demonstrate a mathematical model of road traffic. Secondly, we explore the influence of residential quarters opening on urban traffic, taking three factors into account listed as road traffic capacity, road network density and network average running time. On the basis of above contents, the impact analysis of vehicle traffic caused by pedestrians is added afterwards. Finally, our paper takes three different types of residential areas into account as an example to empirically analyze the tangible impact of the opening, and finally come to the benefit of the traffic system after the opening.

Characterizing Peak-Time Traffic Jam Incidents in Kampala Using Exploratory Data Analysis

Traffic congestion is associated with increased environmental pollutions, as well as reduced socio-economic productivity due to significant delays in travel times. The consequences are worse in least developed countries where motorized road transport networks are often inefficiently managed in addition to being largely underdeveloped. Recent research on traffic congestion has mostly focused on infrastructural aspects of road networks, with little or no emphasis at all on motorists’ on-the-road behavior (MB). The current study thus aimed to bridge this knowledge gap by characterizing traffic jam incidents (TJI) observed over a period of 80 days in Uganda’s Capital City, Kampala. MB as well as road network infrastructural factors such as road blockage (RB), were captured for each of the observed TJI. A total of 483 peak-time TJI were recorded, and exploratory data analysis (EDA) subsequently performed on the TJI dataset. EDA involved Hierarchical clustering analysis (HCA) and K-means clustering of the TJI dataset, as well as a detailed descriptive statistical analysis of both the entire dataset and the emerging TJI clusters. A highlight finding of this study is that 48.2% of the observed TJIs were as a result of on-the-road motorist behavior. Furthermore, the intervention of traffic police officers in a bid to regulate traffic flow was equally responsible for 25.9% of the TJIs observed in this study. Overall, these results indicate that whereas road infrastructural improvement is warranted in order to improve traffic flow, introducing interventions to address inappropriate on-the-road motorists’ behavior could alone improve traffic flow in Kampala, by over 48%. Additionally, in-order to effectively regulate traffic flow in Kampala and other least developed cities with similar traffic congestion management practices, motorists’ on-the-road behavior ought to be factored into any data-driven mechanisms deployed to regulate traffic flow and thus potentially significantly curbing traffic congestion.

Research on Traffic Accessibility and Transportation Integration Level of Chang-Zhu-Tan City Group in China

Aiming at the problem of lack of data model to analyze the level of transportation integration, the paper taking Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan City Group of China as the research object, based on the Gravity measurement model, transportation comprehensive distance model, weighted road density model, analysis of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan City Group accessibility and transportation integration level. A new method to measure the level of traffic integration is proposed and verified by the road network data and socio-economic data of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan City Group. The results show that: Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan City Group traffic accessibility was “point to surface” shape distribution, taking the core region of Changsha as the optimal, Xiangtan, Zhuzhou, Changsha County next, in remote Yanling County, Chaling county has the lowest accessibility;the correlation between traffic network connection degree and economic connection degree reached 0.871, indicating that the transportation integration level of urban agglomerations has a high degree of fit with the level of economic integration. The research results on the one hand for the Chang-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration traffic present situation to make an annotation;on the other hand, that provide a reference for further optimization of Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration traffic planning.

基于SA-Apriori的道路事故风险评估研究

道路事故风险评估是提高道路安全水平的有效方式。为实现在道路网络特征视角下的道路事故风险评估,融合线段分析与频繁集算法,提出SA-Apriori的特征提取算法,进而构建SA-Apriori道路事故风险评估模型,以重庆市大渡口区作为分析对象,建立以道路网络特征变量为指标的道路事故风险等级划分体系,评估其道路事故风险水平,结合商业点位分布情况对该评估方法的有效性进行验证。并针对大渡口区道路事故风险情况,提出道路事故风险的管理对策与建议。结果表明:该道路事故风险评估方法具有较高的可靠性,可为基于路网特征的道路事故风险评估提供参考。

基于ICAE算法的城市群高速公路网布局优化研究

为提升城市群高速公路网通达程度和可达性水平,建立了体现城市群特征的优化模型,并改进了帝国竞争算法,以哈长城市群为案例,探究布局优化效果。采用高速公路出行时间确定城市群可达性等级,通过考虑可达性、距离等参数建立优化模型;引入进化算子改进算法,构建进化帝国竞争算法;根据哈长城市群特征确定约束条件并求解,利用求解节点和周边道路网确定优化方案。研究表明:改进的算法收敛精度提高16.4%,时间缩短42.4%,共求解出6个节点,规划新建高速公路6条,改建高速公路14条,优化后的城市群高速公路2 h交通圈覆盖范围达到65.3%,14个县域交通圈等级上升,优化方案扩大了城市群2 h交通圈范围。

基于双层规划模型的“才”字形交叉口禁流向交通组织方法研究

为解决城市多路交叉口车流复杂导致的交通拥堵和交通安全问题,针对多路交叉口中的“才”字形交叉口,明确其特点,对交叉口部分交通流向禁行的必要性进行分析。基于双层规划构建交叉口禁流向交通组织模型,以局部路网中车均行驶时间最小为目标,判别交叉口各流向车流是否禁行,并确定禁流向后交通组织方案,减少交叉口内车流及冲突点数量。以哈尔滨市学府路—西大直街交叉口为例,比较禁流向交通组织方案和单向交通组织方案,发现此交叉口禁流向交通组织更优,冲突点个数减少52%,路网车均行驶时间下降0.98%。考虑交通量变化分析禁流向交通组织模型的适用性,发现OD量变化超过26%时模型适用性较差,潮汐现象明显的交叉口,应设置单向交通组织。

暴雨内涝下城市路网抗涝韧性评估

极端降雨给城市路网的正常运行带来了极大挑战,为了评估在应对极端降雨时路网的抗涝韧性,本文采用场景模拟方法分析暴雨内涝灾害对路网的影响;以道路水深是否超过水深阈值为标准,判断道路的连通性,构建以节点强度和不同水深下道路速度的衰减函数为计算指标的综合评价框架;基于降雨—积水过程下道路系统的性能变化曲线和4R特征理论,分析4种暴雨重现期下路网的抗涝韧性;提出通过改造易涝交通枢纽提高路网抗涝韧性的提升策略。结果表明:降雨对路网服务性能的影响要大于对路网结构性能的影响,路网的抗涝韧性随着降雨重现期的增大而减小,道路的淹没程度与道路等级和降雨强度两个方面有关;易涝交通枢纽对路网抗涝韧性有较大影响,降雨重现期越小,影响越大。在实施提升策略后,可以显著提升路网的鲁棒性和快速性,增强路网的抗涝韧性。

分形视角下城市非规则道路网近百年演化过程研究

城市道路网在不同时期具有独特的网络结构,然而在近百年历程中如何演变,其过程并不清晰。研究以城市非规则道路网为例,通过历史资料整理提取了南京市鼓楼片区1900年来4个时期道路网,运用分形理论量化表达道路网覆盖均匀度和发育复杂度。结果表明:鼓楼片区非规则路网是由贯通性主干路牵引形成的;其路网相对稀疏,依然有更新和改进的空间;路网覆盖度和连通度近年来趋于平缓,城市应重视干道的功能拓展和“大院制”支路的打通。通过文献史料分析,解释了不同阶段规划思想、社会变革等因素对道路网演变起到的作用,认为历史古城道路网的更新保护应重视起牵引作用的骨架干道,同时重视非机动车和行人的需求,提升其可达性。

考虑抵达时间成本的道路交通事故风险评估方法

道路交通事故频发,给生命财产造成重大损失,给社会生活带来重大影响。现有针对道路交通事故风险的研究未建立有效的道路网络模型,难以准确描述交通事故风险在道路上的传播特点,评估准确度不高。基于此,提出了一种基于抵达时间成本的网络地理加权回归方法,并利用某县级市2018—2020年的道路、交通违法、交通事故、城市POI等数据开展实验,结果表明,基于抵达时间成本的网络地理加权回归方法融合了交通事故风险在道路上的传播性质,显著降低了评估误差,能够有效评估道路交通事故风险及其影响因素;市中心区域道路交通事故高风险区域主要集中在车流量较大的道路交会处与部分交通设施尚不完备的道路;各类交通违法数量、城市POI对道路交通事故风险的影响程度不同,且具有很强的空间异质性。

不确定环境下收费与信息对路径选择行为影响的实验研究

在不确定环境下考虑信息发布与拥挤收费两种措施,基于交通网络均衡,推导了两路径简单路网的最优收费模型,并推广至一般路网。基于两路径路网设计逐日路径选择行为实验,分析了两种措施对路径选择行为的影响。结果表明:完美信息与收费的实施均能减少流量波动,单独实施收费的效果最佳,但只有两种措施相结合时,路网流量趋于用户均衡的趋势最稳定;完美信息会增加路径切换行为,而收费可有效抑制大幅的路径切换;无收费时路径切换往往会造成出行成本增加,而收费时则相反;收费与信息结合时的出行时间比两种措施单独实施时小。

基于宏观基本图的交通控制有效性与路网稳定性研究

区域城市路网在不同控制方法下呈现的网络交通流输出水平与维持能力不尽相同,要评价控制效果的优劣,需要分析区域控制方式下路网交通流与路网耦合时所体现出来的特征值。作为一种路网的基本属性,选择宏观基本图作为研究区域交通控制有效性与路网稳定性的评价载体,解析了相对于路段、交叉口等单点评价具有的优势。基于MFD的区域交通控制评价不受路网交通需求变化的影响。研究建立了路网最大加权流量、最佳累计车辆数、路网负载能力、交通流分布均衡度以及时序均衡度5评价指标,以对区域交通信号控制方法的有效性与路网运行的稳定性进行评价,解读路网高峰时段的交通流维持能力。以成都青羊区太升南路附近37个信号交叉口为路网,利用VISSIM二次开发技术,获得了该路网在定时控制、感应控制、自适应控制以及自适应协调控制下的路网宏观基本图形态。通过对比各控制方法的宏观基本图形态特征与评价指标,从多个维度比较了各控制方法的特征与适用性,分析了相应的控制有效性,解读了其从平峰至过饱和各阶段的交通流维持能力,进而可以了解特定控制方法下路网的运行效率。同时,根据相应控制方法的稳定性表现,指出了各自的局限性,有助于在实际应用中根据区域路网面临的环境,分析应采取的交通控制策略。

基于空间句法的城市立体道路网研究——以南京市鼓楼地区为例

南京鼓楼地区经历了近百年的演变,形成了独特的网络特征。文章旨在通过整理2021年的鼓楼地区道路网数据,并运用空间句法分析方法,选取全局整合度、局部整合度和可理解度作为主要指标,来量化分析鼓楼地区道路网的拓扑结构。同时,对2021年的平面道路网和立体道路网进行空间句法对比分析,以更准确地揭示城市道路网的特征。此外,还分析了鼓楼地区公共事业单位与道路网之间的空间关系和作用机制,采用集成核方法进行耦合分析。文章构建了鼓楼地区道路网分析模型,为历史古城片区道路网的发展提供了参考依据。

基于24Model的重特大道路交通事故致因网络分析

为探究导致重特大道路交通事故的致因因素及其演化关系,运用24Model分析收集的62起重特大道路交通事故调查报告,从不安全动作因素、不安全物态因素、个体安全能力、管理体系因素、安全文化因素以及外部环境因素6类因素展开分析,确定了53个致因因素,进一步构建重特大道路交通事故致因网络,并分析该网络模型的相关拓扑特征指标,结果表明:安全知识不足,安全意识淡薄,安全习惯不佳,心理状态不佳等10项致因因素中心性较高,处于社会网络核心位置,易于诱发其他致因因素,网络的平均路径长度以及网络直径较小,这表明该致因网络具有小世界性,进一步分析社会网络边权占比,得到了1条致因因素关键影响路径,针对关键致因因素及路径进行协同控制对预防重特大道路交通事故发生具有重要意义。

考虑路径特性的道路交通网络冗余性分析

为探究路段特性对路径冗余的影响以及突发事件下道路交通网络的冗余能力,在传统道路网络路径冗余数量方法的基础上,考虑有效路径之间的效率差异和重叠程度,构建基于路径多样性以及突发事件下冗余能力的冗余性评估模型;分析不同成本对路径多样性的影响和突发事件对冗余能力的影响,并对冗余能力进行敏感性分析。结果表明:道路交通网络中路径多样性取决于出行路径成本的类别以及路段出行成本之间的差异,路段出行成本越接近,有效路径的数量越多,路径多样性越高;突发事件场景下道路网络冗余性取决于失效路段的重要程度,失效路段越重要,网络冗余性越低;出行成本容忍度在一定范围内的增加有助于提高突发事件下道路网络的冗余能力,过高或过低的出行成本容忍度都不会对网络的冗余能力有较为明显的提高。

道路网络多阶段抗灾能力优化模型构建与应用

为了降低路网抗灾成本并保障路网快速连通,研究道路交通网络多阶段灾害应对能力优化的问题.建立综合灾前应急工作站点选址和灾后路网恢复决策的3层规划模型,其中特别考虑了应急救援设施和后勤保障资源在耗尽性、运输方式和恢复作用上的差异,定量建模了两者间的相互协作关系.通过综合双层遗传算法和FrankWolfe算法,获得模型的近似最优解.研究结果表明,与未考虑灾后恢复过程的灾前布设决策和未考虑后勤保障资源的灾前布设决策相比,最优决策可以分别降低10.96%的后勤保障资源运输成本和11.51%的加权恢复成本.后勤保障资源和应急救援设施布设数量共同影响路网的恢复效果,忽略两者间的协作关系,将会高估应急救援设施布设数量增加对恢复效果的影响.

考虑路段恢复差异的道路网络恢复决策优化

现有路网恢复决策研究忽略了不同路段恢复速度和恢复程度差异对于路网恢复效果的影响.针对该问题,首先构建基于路段阻抗容忍度的路网连通性指标,以开展路段通行能力部分恢复情况下的路网性能评价;然后,以加权路网性能韧性和恢复速度韧性为优化目标,构建应急恢复决策双层优化模型,在确定待恢复路段的最优集合及恢复时序的同时,通过路段层面的资源分配与预算分配获得待恢复路段的恢复程度和恢复速度;最后,基于传统并行机调度问题遗传算法,构建新型编译码方法求解上层模型,基于Frank-Wolfe算法求解下层模型.基于贵州省区域高速公路网数据,对上述模型和算法进行了验证和分析.结果表明:在一定的资源和预算约束下,考虑路段恢复程度差异可提高32.62%的路网性能韧性,考虑路段恢复速度差异可提高10.17%的路网性能韧性.敏感性分析表明:考虑路段恢复速度差异可以提高增加恢复资源数量对于路网性能韧性、恢复速度韧性和加权韧性提升的边际效益,分别为12.69%、5.47%和22.93%.考虑路段恢复程度差异有助于平衡恢复预算增加导致的路网性能韧性的提高和恢复速度韧性的降低,保障路网恢复效果.因此考虑不同路段恢复差异对于路网恢复决策制定有重要意义.