基于Stacking多模型融合的极端天气短期风电功率预测方法

为了解决极端天气下样本稀缺和单一模型预测精度不高的问题,提出一种基于Stacking多模型融合的极端天气短期风电功率预测方法。首先,提取极端事件的原始数据,通过考虑格兰杰因果的最大相关-最小冗余(maximal relevance minimal redundancy, mRMR)特征选择策略降低数据特征冗余和复杂性;其次,针对极端天气数据稀缺的问题,采用捕捉数据时间动态特性的时间序列生成对抗网络(time-seriesgenerativeadversarialnetwork,TimeGAN)算法进行扩充;最后,考虑到各单一模型的差异性及优势性,构建以卷积神经网络、长短期记忆网络、极端梯度提升树、K最近邻算法、支持向量机为基学习器,以轻量梯度提升机为元学习器的Stacking集成模型对未来3d的风电功率进行预测。实验结果表明,所提方法能够有效提升极端天气下的短期风电功率预测精度,与其他预测模型相比,其归一化平均绝对误差和均方根误差分别改善了2.48%和3.47%。

Lenzing Decides on Capacity Expansion Program

The Lenzing Group, world market leader in cellulose fibers, will continue to expand production capacity in 2010 by investing a scheduled EUR 120 million in its European and Asian sites.The projects will be realized over the next two years. The key elements are the

A CAPACITY EXPANSION PROBLEM WITH BUDGET CONSTRAINT AND BOTTLENECK LIMITATION

This paper considers a capacity expansion problem with budget constraint. Suppose each edge in the network has two attributes: capacity and the degree of difficulty. The difficulty degree of a tree T is the maximum. degree of difficulty of all edges in the tree and the cost for coping with the difficulty in a tree is a nondecreasing function about the difficulty degree of the tree. The authors need to increase capacities of some edges so that there is a spanning tree whose capacity can be increased to the maximum extent, meanwhile the total cost for increasing capacity as well as overcoming the difficulty in the spanning tree does not exceed a given budget D*. Suppose the cost for increasing capacity on each edge is a linear function about the increment of capacity, they transform this problem into solving some hybrid parametric spanning tree problems([1]) and propose a strongly polynomial algorithm.

基于分时数据与优化Stacking模型的光伏电站辐照度预测

为提高复杂天气条件下地表太阳辐射的预报能力,提出了一种基于分时预测与模型融合的预测方法。首先,通过补充天文辐射特征以反映太阳辐射强度的周期性,并结合天气分类方法引入辐照度衰减系数,对天文辐射进行修正,从而增强了相关性。其次,对数据进行了相关性分析,结果显示地表辐照度主要与天文辐射高度密切相关,而其他气象因素的相关性较低。因此,将数据集按时间节点划分为若干子集,以改变数据分布,从而提升其他关键特征之间的相关性。鉴于不同的数据集使用单一模型进行预测可能导致结果差异,为此采用Stacking算法来提高模型的泛化能力。同时,通过引入交叉验证和叠加高斯噪声的数据增广技术,实现对Stacking模型的优化。实验结果表明,优化后的Stacking模型能够有效提升泛化能力并降低过拟合风险;所提方法能有效识别复杂天气下地表辐照度的随机性,其准确率和合格率分别达到了95.8%和96.7%,相比传统预测方法提高了4%~19%。

Decision Making for Capacity Expansion of Water Supply Systems

This study developed a systematic decision-making process for water supply capacity expansion using the analytic hierarchy process. The decision-making criteria were categorized into environmental, economic, technical and socio-cultural aspects. Capacity expansion of three water resources (Kpong, Weija and Teshie plants) of Accra-Tema Metropolitan Area (Ghana) was studied as a test case. The research resulted in the environmental criterion with the highest priority weight (52.4%), followed by the economic (30.6%), technical (11.3%) and socio-cultural criteria (5.8%). The overall analysis ranked the Kpong plant with a score of 36.1% followed by the Weija and Teshie plants with scores 33.8% and 30.2%, respectively.

Studies on Capacity Expansion of Fuel Plants for Nuclear Research Reactors

The demand for nuclear fuel for research reactors is rising worldwide. Thus, the production facilities of this kind of fuel need reliable guidance on how to augment their production in order to meet the increasing demand efficiently and safely. We proposed a specific procedure for increasing production capacity. That procedure was tested with data from a real plant, which produces plate-type fuel elements loaded with LEU U3Si2-Al fuel. The test was made by means of discrete event simulation, and the results indicated the proposed procedure is efficient in raising production capacity.

Minimum Cost of Capacity Expansion for Time-Limited Transportation Problem On-Demand

The minimum cost of capacity expansion for time-limited transportation problem on-demand (MCCETLTPD) is to find such a practicable capacity expansion transportation scheme satisfying the time-limited T along with all origins’ supply and all destinations’ demands as well as the expanding cost is minimum. Actually, MCCETLTPD is a balance transportation problem and a variant problem of minimum cost maximum flow problem. In this paper, by creating a mathematical model and constructing a network with lower and upper arc capacities, MCCETLTPD is transformed into searching feasible flow in the constructed network, and consequently, an algorithm MCCETLTPD-A is developed as MCCETLTPD’s solution method basing minimum cost maximum flow algorithm. Computational study validates that the MCCETLTPD-A algorithm is an efficient approach to solving the MCCETLTPD.

Empowerment Mechanisms and Empirical Evidence of Payment Technology in Capacity Expansion and Quality Improvement of Residents’Consumption

The time-varying difference-in-difference model is used to identify the impact of payment technology on residents’consumption,and the moderation effect analysis method is used to identify its mechanism.It is found that payment technology promotes consumption capacity expansion and quality improvement(CEQI)through three pathways of alleviating liquidity constraints,reducing transaction costs and weakening the payment of pain.The parallel and serial mechanisms of the three are further explored.The effect of payment technology on the CEQI of residents’consumption shows obvious heterogeneity due to differences in urban and rural household registration and financial literacy.Based on the empirical research results and the national conditions of China,targeted policy recommendations are proposed from the demand side,the supply side and the technological side.

High-pressure capacity expansion and water injection mechanism and indicator curve model for fractured-vuggy carbonate reservoirs

Water injection for oil displacement is one of the most effective ways to develop fractured-vuggy carbonate reservoirs.With the increase in the number of rounds of water injection,the development effect gradually fails.The emergence of high-pressure capacity expansion and water injection technology allows increased production from old wells.Although high-pressure capacity expansion and water injection technology has been implemented in practice for nearly 10 years in fractured-vuggy reservoirs,its mechanism remains unclear,and the water injection curve is not apparent.In the past,evaluating its effect could only be done by measuring the injection-production volume.In this study,we analyze the mechanism of high-pressure capacity expansion and water injection.We propose a fluid exchange index for high-pressure capacity expansion and water injection and establish a discrete model suitable for high-pressure capacity expansion and water injection curves in fractured-vuggy reservoirs.We propose the following mechanisms:replenishing energy,increasing energy,replacing energy,and releasing energy.The above mechanisms can be identified by the high-pressure capacity expansion and water injection curve of the well HA6X in the Halahatang Oilfield in the Tarim Basin.By solving the basic model,the relative errors of Reservoirs I and II are found to be 1.9%and 1.5%,respectively,and the application of field examples demonstrates that our proposed high-pressure capacity expansion and water injection indicator curve is reasonable and reliable.This research can provide theoretical support for high-pressure capacity expansion and water injection technology in fracture-vuggy carbonate reservoirs.

Zero-Thermal Expansion and Heat Capacity of Zirconium Pyrovanadate Doped with Zirconia and Vanadium (V) Oxide

The dominant phase ZrV2O7 material, doped with zirconia and vanadium (V) oxide, was synthesized by solid state reaction and sol-gel methods. X-ray power diffraction patterns show that it is cubic structure. Thermal mechanic analysis measurements exhibit a zero-thermal expansion of this material above 150 degreesC. Meanwhile, the heat capacity dependent on temperature, determined by differential scanning calorimetry, keeps in constant almost in the same temperature range. The relationship between unusual thermal expansion and abnormal heat capacity is discussed with Gruneisen parameter.

Multicriteria Analysis of a Capacity Expansion Problem:Damaturu, Northeastern Nigeria as Case Study

Damaturu, the Yobe State Capital is one of the major towns in the semi-arid areas OfNortheastern Nigeria. It lacks adequate water supply. Being a State Capital, rapid improvements in itsinfrastructures including water supply to cope with increased demands are required. Three options forthe expansion of the present water supply system are been considered. These are Groundwater resourceswithin and around the existing system, and surface water schemes from two Dam sites identitied andappraised for this purpose. The Management of the Yobe State Water Board and the State Governmentare faced with the problem of which of these three options to choose. This is a typical capacity expansionproblem within a multicriterion setting in which the choice is to be bassed on economic, environmental,social as well as political considerstions. This paper presents a multicriterion analysis whose result willbe used in forming the basis of an informed decision to be made on why a particular option is to bechosen.

Experimental Investigation of the Cooling Capacity of Gaseous Carbon Dioxide in Free Jet Expansion for Use in Portable Air-Cooling Systems

This paper investigates the possibility of using the free expansion of gaseous CO2 in portable air-cooling systems. The cooling capacity of the gaseous CO2 free jet expansion was calculated using three different approaches and the results showed that the simplified calculations would give approximated cooling values with an 11.6% maximum error. The mass flow rate, upstream pressure and cooling capacity of the gaseous CO2 decreased with time. A maximum 48.5 watts of cooling was recorded at minute 4 and a minimum value of 10.4 watts at the end of the test. The drop in cooling capacity is due to the evaporation of the liquid CO2 inside the small cylinder which cools the two-phase CO2 mixture and causes a pressure drop (from 6 MPa to 2.97 MPa), which also affects the mass flow rate of gaseous CO2 exiting the orifice (from 0.56 g/s to 0.24 g/s). If this cooling technique is to be considered in portable compact-cooling systems, the mass, pressure and cooling capacity drop with time must be solved. One of the solutions could be to cover the cylinder with a heating coat to compensate for the heat absorbed by the evaporation of the liquid CO2.

Characterizing Property of States: Effect of Defects on the Coefficient of Thermal Expansion and the Specific Heat Capacity of ZrB₂

Thermal storage potential and thermal expansion are characteristic properties for extreme applications. ZrB2 is a candidate for advanced applications in aircraft and fusion reactors. This article presents density functional theory calculations of its states, microstructure and quasi-harmonic levels calculations of thermophysical properties. Band structure highlighted dynamical instability with metallic impurities in ZrB2 structure based on frequency modes. The observed projected density of states (PDOS) appropriate 4d orbital of Zr dominated at low frequency both in perfect crystal in the presence or absence of covalent impurities while B 2s and 2p orbitals dominate higher frequency states. Temperature dependency and anisotropy of coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) were evaluated with various impurities. Various thermodynamic properties like entropy and free energy were explored for degrees of freedom resulting from internal energy changes in the material. Computed results for heat capacity and CTE were compared to available numerical and experimental data.

The Capacity Expansion Plan of Yulong Copper Approved

Yulong Copper Co.,Ltd.,affiliated to West Mining Group,received the Mining License of the P.R.C.issued by Ministry of Land and Resources on July 17,2018,which approved a new capacity of 19.89 million t/a.According to report。

Large-Capacity and High-Speed Instruction Cache Based on Divide-by-2 Memory Banks

An increase in the cache capacity is usually accompanied by a decrease in access speed.To balance the capacity and performance of caches,this paper proposes an instruction cache(ICache)architecture based on divide-by-2 memory banks(D2MB-ICache).The control circuit and memory banks of D2MB-ICache work at the central processing unit(CPU)frequency and the divide-by-2 CPU frequency,respectively,so that the capacity of D2MB-ICache can be expanded without lowering its frequency.For sequential access,D2MB-ICache can output the required instruction from memory banks per CPU cycle by dividing the memory banks with a partition mechanism and employing an inversed clock technique.For non-sequential access,D2MB-ICache will fetch certain jump instructions one or two more times,so that it can catch the jump of the request address in time and send the correct instruction to the pipeline.Experimental results show that,compared with conventional ICache,D2MB-ICaches with the same and double capacities show a maximum frequency increase by an average of 14.6%and 6.8%,and a performance improvement by an average of 10.3%and 3.8%,respectively.Moreover,energy efficiency of 64-kB D2MB-ICache is improved by 24.3%.

保温叠合剪力墙FRP连接件力学性能

以夹心保温叠合剪力墙为研究对象,研究螺纹型、矩形和六芒星状3种纤维增强复合材料连接件(FRP)在施工阶段和使用阶段下的抗剪力学性能,并且对三种FRP连接件在两个阶段下的破坏形态、抗拔承载力和荷载-位移曲线进行分析,结果表明:试件的破坏形态主要有混凝土锚固破坏,层间剪切破坏和断裂破坏。施工阶段下单根FRP连接件最终抗剪承载力在1.41~3.91 kN之间,使用阶段下单根FRP连接件最终的抗剪承载力在3.19~6.02 kN之间,根据理论公式得到的计算值与试验值对比可知,在两个阶段情况下3种连接件的安全系数均大于1,均有较大的安全储备,可以应用到实际工程中。

Capacity and outage probability analysis of downlink MRT-SC in distributed antenna system

This paper investigates the downlink capacity distribution and the outage probability of the interested area of maximum ratio transmission-selection combining(MRT-SC) scheme in the distributed antenna system(DAS).Composite fading channels are assumed,which include path loss,lognormal shadowing and multi-path Rayleigh fading.Analytical approximations of the capacity's cumulative distribution function(CDF),the outage capacity,the mean capacity,and the outage probability of the interested area are derived by means of moment generation function(MGF) and Gauss-Hermite series expansion based approaches.The influence of antenna number,path loss exponent,and shadowing standard deviation on the capacity distribution are investigated.The simulation results agree with the analytical approximations well,and thus the analytical approximations are able to substitute the time-intensive Monte Carlo simulation for further investigation.

Numerical Simulation Investigation on Split Sleeve Cold Expansion of Ti-Al Stacked Structure

Split sleeve cold expansion(SSCX)can efiectively enhance fatigue life of holes by improving the field of residual stress.Numerical simulations were conducted to investigate the parameter influence mechanism and obtain higher compressive residual stress(CRS).Expansion method,degree of cold expansion(DCE),friction coefficient between laminations and depth-diameter ratio were analyzed.For Ti-Al stacked joint holes,two expansion methods are proposed,namely aluminum alloy first followed titanium alloy(Al first)and titanium alloy first followed aluminum alloy(Ti first).The results show that expansion method and DCE have significant efiects on the field of circumferential residual stress,and the friction has a negligible influence.A higher value of CRS and a wider layer of plastic deformation are induced with Ti first.Optimal DCE of TiAl stacked structure is 5.2%-5.6%.As the depth-diameter ratio is in the range of 0.5-1.25,a positive linear correlation between the maximum compressive residual stress(CRS_(max))and depth-diameter ratio is shown.

The revision on heat capacity of Einstein’s solid model

This paper is based on Einstein’s supposition about crystal lattice vibration, which states that when Einstein’s temperature ΘE is not less than the crystal temperature T but less than 2T, the expression of crystal molar heat capacity changes to the Dulong-Petit equation Cv=3R. Thereby this equation can explain why crystal molar heat capacity equals about 3R not only at low temperatures but also at normal temperatures for many kinds of metals. It can be calculated that the nonlinear interaction among atoms contributes to the molar heat capacity using the coefficient of expansion β and the Grüneisen constant γ. The result is that the relative error between the theoretical and the experimental value of the molar heat capacity is reduced greatly for many kinds of metals, especially for metals of IA. The relative error can be cut by about 17%.

Anomalous low-temperature heat capacity in antiperovskite compounds

The low-temperature heat capacities are studied for antiperovskite compounds AX M_3（A = Al, Ga, Cu, Ag, Sn, X = C,N, M = Mn, Fe, Co）. A large peak in（C- γ T）/T^3 versus T is observed for each of a total of 18 compounds investigated,indicating an existence of low-energy phonon mode unexpected by Debye T^3 law. Such a peak is insensitive to the external magnetic field up to 80 k Oe（1 Oe = 79.5775 A·m-1）. For compounds with smaller lattice constant, the peak shifts towards higher temperatures with a reduction of peak height. This abnormal peak in（C- γ T）/T^3 versus T of antiperovskite compound may result from the strongly dispersive acoustic branch due to the heavier A atoms and the optical-like mode from the dynamic rotation of X M_6 octahedron. Such a low-energy phonon mode may not contribute negatively to the normal thermal expansion in AX M_3 compounds, while it is usually concomitant with negative thermal expansion in open-structure material（e.g., ZrW_2O_8, Sc F_3）.