Basement interface structural characteristics beneath Jiashi strong earthquake swarm area in Xinjiang, China

The seismic data obtained from high resolution seismic refraction profile in Jiashi strong earthquake swarm area in Xinjiang, China were further processed with ray hit analysis method and more complete basement interface structural characteristics beneath Jiashi strong earthquake swarm area were determined. The results show that there are two clear basement interfaces at the upper crust in Jiashi strong earthquake swarm area. The first one with buried depth ranging from 2.6 km to 3.3 km presents integral and continuous structure, and it appears an inclined plane interface and smoothly rises up toward Tianshan Mountain. The second basement interface with buried depth from 8.5 km to 11.8 km, is the antiquated crystalline basement of Tarim basin. Near the post number of 37 km, the buried depth of the crystalline basement changed abruptly by 2.5 km, which maybe result from an ultra crystalline basement fault. If taking this fault as a boundary, the crystalline basement could be divided into two parts, i.e. the southwestern segment with buried depth about 11.5 km, and the northeastern segment with buried depth approxi-mately from 8.5 km to 9.0 km. That is to say, in each segment, the buried depth changes not too much. The northeast segment rises up as a whole and upheaves slightly from southwest to northeast, which reflects the upper crustal deformation characteristics under the special tectonic background at the northwestern edge of Tarim basin.

Study of Finite Element Modeling of Strong Earthquake Activities and Its Preliminary Application—Taking Southwest China as an Example

Based on research result concerning the preparation and activity of strong earthquakes in groups and using the finite element method, a finite element dynamic model for Southwest China is established in this paper. Using this model, the stress adjustment in the whole of the Southwest China region in response to the stress change due to strong earthquake occurrence is studied. The preliminary result shows that many strong earthquakes occurred in areas where the stress heightened after the last strong earthquake. So, the finite element model set up in this paper is useful for judging the regions where strong earthquakes are likely to occur in future.

An analysis of anomalous weather and climate around the M_S=6.2 earthquake of Zhangbei region

Through analysis we found that some mesoscale anomalous regions (10 1～10 2 km) of meteorological parameters such as the special drought areas, unusual warm areas, the largest snowfall center, low pressure area together with the epicenter area of M S=6.2 Zhangbei earthquake on January 10, 1998 are located at the same area, i.e. there appears the ″Five areas corresponding″ phenomenon. Meanwhile, three times of low pressure evolution are generated and develop in the earthquake area in five days after the occurrence of the earthquake. The abnormal variation of the lower limit of frozen soil layer shows indirectly that unusual warm in earthquake areas are related to the upward thermal conduction from the deeper layer of earth surface.

Retrospection on the Conclusions of Earthquake Tendency Forecast before the Wenchuan M_S8.0 Earthquake

The reason for the failure to forecast the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake is under study, based on the systematically collection of the seismicity anomalies and their analysis results from annual earthquake tendency forecasts between the 2001 Western Kunlun Mountains Pass Ms8. 1 earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake. The results show that the earthquake tendency estimation of Chinese Mainland is for strong earthquakes to occur in the active stage, and that there is still potential for the occurrence of a Ms8.0 large earthquake in Chinese Mainland after the 2001 Western Kuulun Mountains Pass earthquake. However the phenomena that many large earthquakes occurred around Chinese Mainland, and the 6-year long quietude of Ms7.0 earthquake and an obvious quietude of Ms5.0 and Ms6.0 earthquakes during 2002- 2007 led to the distinctly lower forecast estimation of earthquake tendency in Chinese Mainland after 2006. The middle part in the north-south seismic belt has been designated a seismic risk area of strong earthquake in recent years, but, the estimation of the risk degree in Southwestern China is insufficient after the Ning＇er Ms6.4 earthquake in Yunnan in 2007. There are no records of earthquakes with Ms ≥ 7.0 in the Longmenshan fault, which is one of reasons that this fault was not considered a seismic risk area of strong earthquakes in recent years.