Segmentations of active normal dip-slip faults around Ordos block according to their surface ruptures in historical strong earthquakes

From the results of researches of active faults in resent years, a correlation analysis between segments of the faults according to surface ruptures in nine historical strong earthquakes occurring in downfaulted system and active structures around Ordos block is conducted in paper. The result shows that there is a good correlation between them, except few individual data that have more uncertain parameters. It shows that intensity and segments of surface ruptures in these strong earthquakes are intrinsically related with the active structures. These strong earthquakes produced stable and unstable rupture boundaries of characteristic-earthquake type and successive occurrence of strong earthquakes on the different boundary faults in the same tectonic unit.

An Inhomogeneous Distribution Model of Strong Earthquakes along Strike-Slip Act ive Fault Segments on the Chinese Continent and Its Implication in Engineering Seismology

Through the statistical analysis of earthquake distribution along 51 strike-sli p active fault segments on the Chinese continent, we found that strong earthquak e distribution along the seismogenic fault segments is inhomogeneous and the dis tribution probability density p(K) can be stated as p(K)=1.1206e -3.947K in which K=S/(L/2), S refers to the distance from earthquake epicenter to the center of a fault segment, L is the length of the fault segment. The above model can be utilized to modify the probability density of earthquake occurrence of t he maximum magnitude interval in a potential earthquake source. Nevertheless, it is only suitable for those potential earthquake sources delineated along a sing le seismogenic fault. This inhomogeneous model has certain effects on seismic risk assessment, especia ll y for those potential earthquake sources with higher earthquake reoccurrence rat es of the maximum magnitude interval. In general, higher reoccurrence rate of th e maximum magnitude interval and lower exceeding probability level may bring lar ger difference of the results in seismic risk analysis by adopting the inhomogen eous model, the PGA values increase inner the potential earthquake source, but r educe near the vicinity and out of the potential earthquake source. Taking the T angyin potential earthquake source as an example, with exceeding probability of 10% and 2% in 50 years, the difference of the PGA values between inhomogeneous m odel and homogenous models can reach 12%.

Anomalies of Precursory Group and Grouped Strong Earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region

Three methods of extracting the information of anomalies of a precursory group are put forward, i.e., the mathematical analyses of the synthetic information of earthquake precursors (S), the inhomogeneous degree of precursory groups (ID) and the values of short-term and impending anomaly in near-source area (NS). Using these methods, we calculate the observational data of deformation, underground fluid and hydrochemical constituents obtained from different seismic stations in the Sichuan-Yunnan region and conclude that the synthetic precursory anomalies of a single strong earthquake with M S6.0 differ greatly from those of the grouped strong earthquakes, for the anomalous information of precursory groups are more abundant. The three methods of extracting the synthetic precursory anomaly and the related numerical results can be applied into the practice of prediction to the grouped strong earthquakes in the Sichuan-Yunnan region. Inhomogeneous degree (ID) of synthetic precursory anomaly can be identified automatically because it takes the threshold of distributive characteristics of the anomalies of precursory group as its criterion for anomaly.

The Statistical Analysis of Migration of Strong Earthquakes─Taking the North China Region as an Example

The migration of strong earthquakes is an important research topic because the migration phenomena reflect partly the seismic mechanism and involve the prediction of tendency of seismic activity. Research on migration of strong earthquakes has mostly focused on finding the phenomena. Some attempts on getting regularity were comparatively subjective. This paper suggests that there should be indices of migration in earthquake dataset and the indexes should have statistical meaning if there is regularity in the migration of strong earthquakes. In this study, three derivative attributes of migration, i.e., migration orientation, migration distance and migration time interval, were statistically analyzed. Results in the North China region show that the migration of strong earthquakes has statistical meaning. There is a dominant migration orientation (W by S to E by N), a dominant distance (≤100km and on the confines of 300～700km), and a dominant time interval (≤1a and on the confines of 3～4a). The results also show that the migration will differ slightly with different magnitude range or earthquake activity phase.

Dynamic variation of ambient shear stress field before and after three strong earthquakes in Yunnan

A method calculating relative shear stress values in seismic source areas using data of seismic wave is used in thispaper which is introduced by PEI-SHAN CHEN, based on a rupture model studying seismic rupture process fromtheory of fracture mechanics. The shear stress values τ0 in mid-small earthquakes occurred in 1986~June of 1997in Yunnan and its adjacent areas are used to trace the variation process of ambient shear stress field before andafter three strong earthquakes in Yunnan and China-Myanmar border areas. The results show that there exists abackground of high values in ambient shear stress field. In the development process of a strong earthquake, theambient shear stress field in and nearby its potential source area increases obviously, for a long time, experiences aprocess of multiple down - up - down - up. The pattern of dynamic variation of ambient shear stress field hasreflected the multi-source fields of seismogenesis in and nearby Yunnan. There exist multi-increased areas of ambient shear slress fields synchronously in southwest, northwest. west and east of Yunnan, and three strong eathquakes of magnitude about 7 occurred in the most obviously increased areas of ambient shear stress fields.

Response of vertical deformation on faults to remote strong earthquakes

Vertical coseismic deformation on non-causative fault caused by remote strong earthquakes （epicentral distance ≥1 500 km, Ms≥7.0） are observed by fault-monitoring instruments of new type during recent two years. The monitoring result shows, delay time, maximum amplitude and duration of vertical deformation on the non-causative fault have remarkable close relationship with earthquakes magnitude and epicentral distance. The delay time of vertical coseismic deformation have positive linear relationship with epicentral distance. The velocity of coseismic deformation is 5.5 km/s, close to the velocity of surface wave in granite. The logarithms of maximum amplitude of coseismic deformation and epicentral distance have remarkable linear relationship with magnitude. The greater the magnitude and the closer the epicentral distance are, the bigger the maximum amplitude of coseismic deformation on non-causative fault will be. Relative to the epicentral distance, the magnitude is the most important factor to the duration of coseismic vertical deformation on the non-causative fault. Stronger earthquake causes longer vibration duration of coseismic deformation. The experiential equation of co-seismic deformation faults obtained by this work is significant on the coseismic deformation research.

A Study on the Early Warning Time of Strong Earthquakes in Taiwan

The paper collects the records by the Fujian Digital Seismic Network of 40 shallow earthquakes in Taiwan with M_S≥5.0 from 1999 to 2013,analyzes the seismic phase(Pn,Sn phase)characteristics and travel-time rules,determines travel-time models and develops a seismic phase travel-time equation based on the two-step fitting algorithm.With the deduction of processing time and network delay time,this method can provide an accurate estimation of early warning time of Taiwan earthquakes for the Fujian region,and has been officially employed in the earthquake early warning system of Fujian Province.

Cluster of Strong Earthquakes and Aftershocks in Ahar-Varzeghan Area on August 11, 2012

Seismic events are very complex spatial-temporal phenomena. Seismic catalogues, reporting information about spatial-temporal distribution of the main shocks, are nowadays available for many seismic areas in the world, very often major events mark the beginning of a series of earthquakes （aflershocks） whose frequency and energy are meanly decreasing in time down to the background level of activity. Azerbaijan is one of the most active segments of the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt and marks the junction between the African-Arabian and Indian plate to the south, and Eurasian plate to the north. The cluster of earthquakes that struck near Varzeghan-Ahar was centered near the Gosha-Dagh fault, but preliminary data suggested that the fault was not responsible for the temblor. On the late afternoon of Saturday, August 11, 2012, the northwest of Iran was shaken by two of the strong earthquakes in Iranian history. First was hit by Mw （moment magnitude scale） = 6.4 Richter at local time 16：54 （12：23 GMT （Greenwich Mean Time））, and about 11 min later, an Mw = 6.3 struck 10 km to the west. The spatial-temporal clustering of micro earthquakes （aftershocks） near Varzeghan, is parameterized by means of a generalized passion model. The region has known faults but numerous smaller or deeply buried faults remain undated, according to the Geological Survey of Iran.

Analysis on the Characteristics of the Coseismic Response of Water Levels Recorded in Three Wells in Hainan,China to the Two Sumatra-Andaman Strong Earthquakes

The characteristics of seismic water level fluctuations of the two Sumatra-Andaman strong earthquakes with magnitude 8.7 and 8.5 on December 26,2004 and March 29,2005 recorded at Jiaji well,Qionghai,Hainan were analyzed,the features of the infrequent "step" changes of well water level after the two earthquakes were also analyzed and the mechanism of the "step change" of well water level was discussed.Then the high-sample-rate digital observation data of seismically-induced water level fluctuations of the Sumatra-Andaman strong earthquakes with magnitude 8.7 and 8.5 recorded at Nanbin well,Sanya and Tanniu well,Wenchang were analyzed.The results suggest that the dominant period of the seismic well water level fluctuation in all three wells was comparatively accordant,the amplitudes of seismic water level fluctuation of the same earthquake in different wells were clearly different,the time duration of seismic water level fluctuations of different earthquakes at the same well was also clearly different.

Relationship between the earthquake sequences of Tangshan and Xingtai and the three dimensional velocity structure──Discussion on predicting strong earthquakes of swarm-type

In this paper, based on the results of tomographic image of Tangshan and Xingtai areas, the relations between thecharacteristics of the two strong earthquake sequences and their three-dimensional velocity structures are studied.The research results indicate that:① Mosaic distribution of low-velocity bodies and high-velocity bodies, especially the existence of high-velocity bodies with large size in crust are the common basis of development of thetwo earthquake sequences. ② Scale, depth, and heterogeneity of high-velocity and low-velocity bodies are theimportant factors to effect the characteristic of earthquake sequences. ③ The depth of the high-velocity body inTangshan area is less than that in Xingtai area, which is the principal reason why the dominant focal depth and thebiggest focal depth of Tangshan earthquake sequence are less than Xingtai's. ④ The depth of the high-velocitybodies in Ninghe area is more than that in Tangshan-Luanxian area, which lead to the biggest magnitude and epicentral intensity are lower. These results could be helpful for predicting the main shock of strong swarm-typeearthquakes and later strong aftershocks.

3-D finite element modeling for evolution of stress field and interaction among strong earthquakes in Sichuan-Yunnan region

Based on the latest achievement about activities of geological structure, a 3-D finite-element model containing four layers of upper crust, lower crust (two layers) and upper mantle is established in the paper. By repeated tests and revisions, the boundary conditions of the model are determined. And then the background stress field, the stress field caused by fault creep and the stress field triggered by strong earthquake in Sichuan-Yunnan region, as well as their dynamic variations are calculated. The results indicate that the latter earthquake often occurs in the area with positive Coulomb rupture stress change associated with the former one, the former earthquake has a triggering effect on the latter one to a certain extent, and strong earthquake often occur in groups under the background of high stress, which is of great significance for distinguishing seismic anomalies, as well as for improving the level of earthquake prediction.

Statistical analysis on temporal-spatial correlativity within temporal doublets of strong earthquakes in North China and its vicinity

In order to unify the time and the space attributes into temporal-spatial distance, the temporal-spatial proportional coefficient fTS is proposed in this paper. In accordance with the new distance concept, the temporal-spatial correlativity within temporal doublets of strong earthquakes in North China and its vicinity since AD 1500 has been analyzed. The computation results indicate that doublets of strong earthquake can be divided into two groups when fTS is endowed with 10 km/a in the new distance formula. The temporal-spatial distance between two points of doublet generally cannot exceed 140 km when two strong quakes in doublet have some causative relation. And those doublets with temporal-spatial distance exceeding 280 km are probably independent seismic events in doublets. This character can be the reference to the migration law summarization and trend prediction.

Relationship between Earth’s Rotation and Several Strong Earthquakes and Moderate-small Earthquakes Occurring around the Epicenter Regions Prior to Strong Earthquakes

The relationships between Earth＇s rotation and the 1975 Haicheng, Liaoning Ms7.3 earthquake, 2008 Wenchuan, Sichuan Ms8.0 earthquake and the 2004 Sumatra Msg. 0 earthquake, as well as moderate-small earthquakes occurring around the epicenter regions prior to them are investigated in this study. The obtained results could benefit the further understanding of the relationship between the Earth＇s rotation and earthquakes.

The characteristics of variation in inhomo geneity of temporalspatial distribution of short to imminent precursors before strong earthquakes

C_v is used in this paper to describe the variation in inhomogeneity of spatial and temporal distribution of precur sors. The inhomogeneous variation in the spatial and temporal distribution of the anomalies in water radon and electromagnetic waves before M_s≈6 earthquakes in northern North China is analyzed in detail. Results show that before a moderate to strong earthquake, the distribution of anomalies in water radon and electromagnetic waves changes inhomogeneously, i.e., C_v increases significantly. The inhomogeneity in spatial distribution of short-to- imminent precursors increases before a strong earthquake, which may relates to the enhancement of crustal strain field. The research will not only help us to know more about the process of seismogeny and to improve practical earthquake prediction, but also blaze a new way to do earthquake prediction with present precursor data.

The Characteristics of Time Series of Strong Earthquakes in the World and the Chinese Mainland

Based on the strong earthquake catalogue, this paper discusses the characteristics of the time series of strong earthquake activities in the world, western Chinese mainland and its peripheral ＂big triangle seismic region＂, as well as the Chinese mainland. According to the analysis of the periodic features of global seismicity of M I〉 8. 0 strong events, it is found that there is significant difference in global seismicity before and after the 1960s. Statistical analysis with the Fisher method has revealed that the ＂big triangular seismic region＂ has experienced a process of M8.0 earthquake activity with a duration of over a hundred years since 1800. Further analysis shows that the global seismicity and the ＂big triangular seismic region＂ possibly has a period of a hundred-year scale, and has quasi- synchronicity to a certain extent. The shallow earthquake activity of Ms I〉 7. 0 in the Chinese mainland is obviously controlled by the seismicity in the big triangular seismic region and by global seismicity in a larger spatial-scale. In terms of the time series of these earthquakes, the seismicity shows a decadal and century-scale activity patterns.

Study of the Seismicity of Strong Earthquakes in the Yunnan Area

Yunnan is located in the east margin of the collision zone between the India Plate and the Eurasian Plate on the Chinese Continent, where crustal movement is violent and moderatestrong earthquakes are frequent. In addition, the area features marked active block movement. Therefore, Yunnan is a perfect place for research on strong earthquake activity. Through the study on the temporal and spatial distribution of the M ≥ 6.7 earthquakes and the related earthquake dynamics in Yunnan in the last century, we conclude that the four seismically active periods, which are characterized by alternative activity in the east and the west part of Yunnan, possibly result from a combination of active and quiescent periods in each of the east and west part. And for every 100 years, there may be a period in which strong earthquakes occur in the east and west parts simultaneously. In addition, the seismicity of strong earthquakes in Yunnan corresponds well to that in the peripheral region. The seismicity of the great earthquakes in the Andaman-Myanmar Tectonic Arc belt indicates, to some extent, the beginning of a seismically active period in Yunnan. The seismicity of strong earthquakes in east Yunnan is closely related to that in Sichuan. Strong earthquakes in Sichuan often occur later than those in Yunnan. Furthermore, in the east part of Ynnnan, the three procedures including continuous occurrence of moderate-strong earthquake, quiescent period, and the occurrence of the first strong earthquake may be the style of the beginning of the earthquake active period. The above cognition is helpful to the study of earthquake prediction, seismogenic mechanism, and the dynamics of the plate margin in Yunnan.

Parameter estimation of the stochastic AMR model and its application to the study of several strong earthquakes

Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaikes AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.

Recurrence anomaly of ground water behavior before strong earthquakes in North China

By analyzing the relationship between ground water behavior and strong seismic activity during the past more than 20 years in North China, we have found similar water level descending variation of a part of wells in the short-term stage before several strong earthquakes. The characteristics of anomaly are: at the beginning, water level dropped abruptly or accelerated to drop; then it turned to slow rising with a smaller amplitude than that of descending; earthquakes occurred during the slow-rising process of water level, and at that time or before earthquake occurrence, water level rose with a large amplitude. Among more than 100 wells in North China, the descending anomalies were not recorded for many times, but similar variation processes of water level were noted at different wells before several strong earthquakes, which proves that seismic precursory anomalies of ground water are of certain recurrence features, occurring repeatedly before different strong earthquakes. Therefore, it is necessary to study the genesis of this type of anomaly and its relationship with strong seismic activity.

On correlation between seismic activities and focal mechanisms of subsequent strong earthquakes

On the basis of the results from spatial-temporal scanning of moderate seismic activities prior to 63 strong earth- quakes occurred since 1966, we investigate in this paper the characteristics of anomalous evolution of moderate seismic activities prior to strong earthquakes with different focal mechanisms in different tectonic blocks, as well as the correlation between principal seismic activities and nodal planes of focal mechanisms. The research results indicate that the moderate seismic activities prior to strong earthquakes display two significant stages of stress concentration and stress weakening, which are consistent to the evolvement of local tectonic stress field. The first stage, defined as medium-term stage, is characterized by seismic belts, seismic gaps and centralized activities; The second stage, defined as short-term stage, is predominated by continuous quiescence. For the earthquakes occurred on the strike-slip and normal faults, the two stages are relatively evident; while for the earthquakes occurred on the thrust faults, there are not characteristic images and seismic quiescence in both stages. The spatial distribution of moderate shock belts before strong earthquakes show a good coherence with that of the two nodal planes of focal mechanisms, while the spatial distribution of seismic gaps enclosed by moderate shocks display a poor coherence with the nodal planes.

Geomagnetic diurnal-variation anomalies and their relation to strong earthquakes

The diurnal-variation anomalies of the vertical-component in geomagnetic field are mainly the changes of phase and amplitude before strong earthquakes. On the basis of data recorded by the network of geomagnetic observato- ries in China for many years, the anomalous features of appearance time of the minima of diurnal variations (i.e, low-point time) of the geomagnetic vertical components and the variation of their spatial distribution (i.e, phe- nomena of low-point displacement) have been studied before over 30 strong earthquakes with MS≥6.6 such as Kunlunshan MS=8.1 earthquake on November 14, 2001; Bachu-Jashi MS=6.8 earthquake on February 24, 2003; Xiaojin MS=6.6 earthquake on September 22, 1989, etc. There are good relations between such rare phenomena of geomagnetic anomalies and the occurrence of earthquakes. It has been found that most earthquakes occur in the vicinity of the boundary line of sudden change of the low-point displacement and generally within four days before and after the 27th or 41st day counting from the day of appearance of the anomaly. In addition, the anomalies of diurnal-variation amplitude near the epicentral area have been also studied before Kunlunshan MS=8.1 earthquake and Bachu-Jiashi MS=6.8 earthquake.