区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法

根据多年丰富的区域地质灾害考察和综合研究实践,作者架构了区域地质灾害评价预警研究的理论体系和工作方法,主要包括:(1)开展区域地质灾害综合调查;(2)建立地质灾害信息系统,包括基于GIS的区域地质灾害空间数据库和分层图形库(GGIS);(3)研究区域地质灾害分布与地形(高程、高差、坡度)、水系、植被、工程地质岩组、地质构造形迹、斜坡类型、降雨量分布和地震活动等的统计关系,为评价因子选取、分级和权重确定提供依据;(4)筛选提取评价预警研究因子体系,建立地质灾害发育因子、基础因子、诱发因子和易损因子体系;(5)创建研究区域地质灾害"发育度"、"潜势度"、"危险度"和"危害度"(简称"四度")的概念模型和数学模型;(6)在满足一定精度比例尺数字化图上划分计算单元,分别计算研究区域地质灾害"发育度"、"潜势度"、"危险度"和"危害度";(7)根据计算结果和应用目的,把相同或相近级别的图斑合并,分别编制区域地质灾害"四度"区划图;(8)根据"四度"区划结果提出研究区的地质灾害防治规划、分级监测预警目标区和地质环境可持续开发利用对策;(9)对重点地段或地点专门编制地质灾害防治预案和政府-社会联动的应急反应机制。上述9个步骤构成区域地质灾害评价预警的时空递进分析理论与方法,简称"四度"递进分析法(AM FP)。

三峡库区地质灾害空间评价预警研究

通过全面野外调查(比例尺1∶100,000),填表登录了三峡库区(19县(区),54175km2)地质灾害点5706处,其中,滑坡3830处、不稳定斜坡1107处、崩塌549处、泥石流90处、地面塌陷85处、地裂缝45处。采用1∶250,000数字化地形底图,通过编制三峡库区工程地质图层,建立了基于MapGIS的三峡库区地质灾害空间数据库和分层图形库。在研究了三峡库区地质灾害分布与地形(高程、坡度)、水系、植被、工程地质岩组、地质构造形迹、斜坡类型、降雨量分布和地震活动等的统计关系基础上,筛选提取了地质灾害空间评价预警研究的发育因子(响应因子)、基础因子、诱发因子和易损因子体系。划分了三峡库区干、支流库岸的斜坡结构类型,预测建立了未来三峡水库在145～175m水位变动期水库库岸斜坡可能出现冲刷—坍塌、整体滑移、溶蚀垮塌和侵蚀—剥蚀等4种类型变形失稳模式。采用2 5km×2 5km(图面1cm×1cm)的网格剖分整个区域,共形成9309个网格。基于区域地质灾害评价预警的递进分析理论与方法(AMFP),分别计算了三峡库区地质灾害"发育度"、"潜势度"、"危险度"和"危害度"(简称"四度")。采用图斑合并方法分别编制了相应的"四度"区划图。根据"四度"区划结果,分别提出了三峡库区地质灾害监测预警与防治区划和地质环境开发利用的对策。

Debris Flow Hazard Assessment Using Set Pair Analysis Models:Take Beichuan County as an Example

Assessment of debris flow hazards is important for developing measures to mitigate the loss of life and property and to minimize environmental damage. Two modified uncertainty models, Set Pair Analysis （SPA） and modified Set Pair Analysis （mSPA）, were suggested to assess the regional debris flow hazard. A ease study was conducted in seven towns of the Beichuan county, Sichuan Province, China, to test and compare the application of these two models in debris flow hazard assessment. The results showed that mSPA only can fit for value-variables, but not for non value-variable assessment indexes, Furthermore, as for a given assessment index xi, mSPA only considers two cases, namely, when grade value increases with xi and when grade value decreases with xi. Thus, mSPA can not be used for debris flow hazard assessment but SPA is credible for the assessment because there are no limitations when using SPA model to assess the debris flow hazard. Therefore, in this study SPA is proposed for assessing debris flow hazard.

Analysis of conflict factors between pedestrians and right-turning vehicles at signalized intersections

Due to the fact that there is no protected signal phase for right turns at most signalized intersections, the conflict between pedestrians and right-turning vehicles is one of the most common conflict types for pedestrians. A pedestrian safety analysis of the common right-turn mode at four-phase signalized intersections is presented. Relative risk is used as a measure of the effect of behaviors. The analysis mainly includes five pedestrian factors that affect the conflict process between pedestrians and right-turning vehicles. Pedestrians tend to have a higher risk of being involved in conflicts in the following six situations: crossing with others, running over the crossing, entering the intersection, being near the exit lane, crossing in the middle or at the end of a green light when the right-turn lane is shared, crossing at the beginning of a green light or red period when the right-turn lane is exclusive. It is easier for pedestrians to get priority when crossing the street in the following situations: running over a crossing, entering the intersection, being near the entrance lane, and not using the crosswalk. However, pedestrians are more inclined to yield to right-turning vehicles when pedestrians are crossing in the middle of the green light time. Some measures to alleviate the conflict are put forward according to the conclusion. Video observations also indicate that a clear pedestrian waiting area must be marked for both pedestrian safety and right-turning vehicle efficiency at major flat intersections, particularly when the arms cover the lateral dividing strips.

Coffee drinking and pancreatic cancer risk:A meta-analysis of cohort studies

AIM:To quantitatively assess the relationship between coffee consumption and incidence of pancreatic cancer in a meta-analysis of cohort studies. METHODS:We searched MEDLINE,EMBASE,Science Citation Index Expanded and bibliographies of retrieved articles.Studies were included if they reported relative risks(RRs)and corresponding 95%CIs of pancreatic cancer with respect to frequency of coffee intake.We performed random-effects meta-analyses and metaregressions of study-specific incremental estimates to determine the risk of pancreatic cancer associated with a 1 cup/d increment in coffee consumption. RESULTS:Fourteen studies met the inclusion criteria, which included 671 080 individuals(1496 cancer events) with an average follow-up of 14.9 years.Compared with individuals who did not drink or seldom drank coffee per day,the pooled RR of pancreatic cancer was 0.82 (95%CI:0.69-0.95)for regular coffee drinkers,0.86 (0.76-0.96)for low to moderate coffee drinkers,and 0.68(0.51-0.84)for high drinkers.In subgroup analyses,we noted that,coffee drinking was associated witha reduced risk of pancreatic cancer in men,while this association was not seen in women.These associations were also similar in studies from North America,Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region. CONCLUSION:Findings from this meta-analysis suggest that there is an inverse relationship between coffee drinking and risk of pancreatic cancer.

Assessment of pot-hole subsidence risk for Indian coal mines

Ground subsidence induced by extraction of coal seam belowground brings about changes in surface environment leading to trough and pot-hole subsidence.Pot-hole subsidence is extremely hazardous and does not give any prior indication before its occurrence.In India,several pot-holes have occurred in the coal mines of South Eastern Coalfields Limited triggering the need for in-depth studies.In line with the requirement,literature review and field investigations were conducted to develop an in-depth understanding of various parameters influencing the occurrence of pot-holes.The critical parameters identified were rock to soil ratio,depth to height of extraction ratio,brittleness index of rock and rock density.Risk assessment of pot-hole subsidence has been done by developing an empirical rating approach named as pot-hole subsidence rating(PHSR),involving the critical parameters with suitable corrections for certain structural and mining conditions to obtain corrected PHSR(CPHSR).CPHSR was then applied for all the 34pot-holes studied and it was found that all the pot-holes fall under Class I and Class II category of risk representing a very high to high risk class.An effort was made for the estimation of pot-hole depth utilizing the developed CPHSR in both the development and depillaring cases.The developed approach was found to yield consistent results in pot-hole depth prediction.

Assessment of grid inherent vulnerability considering open circuit fault under potential energy framework

A potential energy framework for assessment of grid vulnerability was presented.In the framework,the branch potential energy function model was constructed.Two indexes,current vulnerability and forecasting vulnerability,were calculated.The current vulnerability was used to identify the current vulnerable area through calculating the distance between the current transmitted power and initial transmitted power;and the forecast vulnerability under variation of power injection was used to predict the vulnerable area of next step and verify the current vulnerable area.Numerical simulation was performed under variant operating conditions with IEEE-30 bus system,which shows that almost area of 90% overlaps between current vulnerable area and forecasting vulnerable area,the overlapped area is termed as inherent vulnerable area of grid.When considering N-1 contingency,the assessment results of this method proposed agree with those of optimal power flow.When considering N-2 contingency,optimal power flow fails to obtain correct results,while the method based on energy framework gives reliable results.

STUDY ON THE METHOD FOR FORECASTING DANGEROUSNESS OF COAL FACE AND HEADING FACE OUTBURST BY TWO TEMPERATURE INDEXES

In line with the sensitivity of coal drillings temperature and coalbed temperature to the dangerous zone of coal and gas outburst, two temperature sensitive indexes (△Tm, △tm) for forecasting dangerousness of coal face and heading face outburst are defined, and deal with the foundation on drillings and coalbed temperatures used as sensitive indexes and the principle and method of determining drillings and coalbed temperatures. On the basis of this, we put forward the method for forecasting dangerousness of coal face and heading face outburst by two temperature sensitive indexes and determine the critical values of two temperature sensitive indexes (△Tm= 5.5℃, △tm = 4.5℃) by in-situ observation and requirement for determining sensitive index.

Active velocity tomography for assessing rock burst hazards in a kilometer deep mine

Active velocity tomography was used to determine the stress state and rock burst hazards in a deep coal mine. The deepest longwall face, number 3207 in the Xingcun colliery, was the location of the field trials. The positive correlation between stress and seismic velocity was used to link the velocity data with stratum stresses. A GeoPen SE2404NT data acquisition system was used to collect seismic data from 300 g explosive charges fired by instantaneous electric detonator and located in the tail entry. The geophones were installed on the rock bolts in the head entry of LW3207. Velocity inversion shows an inhomogeneous distribution of stress in the longvvall face that could not be obtained from theory or numerical simulations. Three abnormally high P-wave velocity regions were identified that were located on the corners of the two roadways and at the face end near the rail entry side. The maximum velocity gradient is located at the open cut off near the rail entry and is the area most dangerous for rock burst. Mining-induced tremors recorded by a micro-seismic monitoring system demonstrated that the position of energy release during mining coincides with the high velocity gradient area. This technology aids technicians in the coal mine as they design measures to weaken or eliminate potential danger during subsequent mining.

Temperature Effects of Parabolic Linear Bound Potential and Coulomb Bound Potential Quantum Dot Qubit

On the condition of electric-LO phonon strong coupling in a parabolic quantum dot,we obtain theeigenenergy and the eigenfunctions of the ground state and the first-excited state using the variational method ofPekar type.This system in a quantum dot may be employed as a two-level quantum system-qubit.When the electronis in the superposition state of the ground state and the first-excited state,we obtain the time evolution of the electrondensity.The relations of the probability density of electron on the temperature and the electron-LO-phonon couplingconstant and the relations of the period of oscillation on the temperature,the electron-LO-phonon coupling constant,the Coulomb binding parameter and the confinement length are derived.The results show that the probability densityof electron oscillates with a period when the electron is in the superposition state of the ground and the first-excitedstate,and show that there are different laws that the probability density of electron and the period of oscillation changewith the temperature and the electron-LO-phonon coupling constant when the temperature is lower or higher.Andit is obtained that the period of oscillation decreases with increasing the Coulomb bound potential and increases withincreasing the confinement length not only at lower temperatures but also at higher temperatures.

Decision Support Scheme for Lishan Landslide Prewarning System

This study combines the analytical model to build a landside monitoring decision support system of the Web GIS. The landslide area of Lishan is a case study for the research. The analysis of the risk degree for the landslide area in Lishan is based on the three-layer architecture of Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchical Process （FAHP）. There are four fuzzy model structures used in monitoring devices： rainfall, groundwater level, Time Domain Reflectometry （TDR） monitored the subsurface deformation, and Global Positioning System （GPS） monitored ground displacement. These structures are relative to four membership functions that are used to classify four states, including safety, attention, warning, and danger. The risk degree of the landslide area can be obtained through the fuzzy rules by determining management criteria. Calculating the total scores of historical monitoring record of the rainfall, groundwater level, TDR, and GPS through the fuzzy theory can determine the analytical results of risk degrees in Lishan landslide area. In this whole area, management criterion is in the state of attention when the total score is larger than 72, in the state of warning when total score is larger than 95, and in the state of danger when total score is larger than 113. The system provides real-time monitoring data, and prewarning decision support in order to announce and prevent the disaster at the earliest time.

Crohn's disease and risk of fracture: does thyroid disease play a role?

AIM: To assess the role of thyroid disease as a risk for fractures in Crohn's patients.METHODS: A cross-sectional study was conducted from 1998 to 2000. The study group consisted of 210 patients with Crohn's disease. A group of 206 patients without inflammatory bowel disease served as controls. Primary outcome was thyroid disorder. Secondary outcomes included use of steroids, immunosuppressive medications, surgery and incidence of fracture.RESULTS: The prevalence of hyperthyroidism was similar in both groups. However, the prevalence of hypothyroidism was lower in Crohn's patients (3.8 % vs 8.2 %, P=0.05).Within the Crohn's group, the use of immunosuppressive agents (0 % vs11 %), steroid usage (12.5 % vs37 %), small bowel surgery (12.5 % vs 28 %) and large bowel surgery (12.5 % vs27 %) were lower in the hypothyroid subset as compared to the euthyroid subset. Seven (3.4 %) Crohn'spatients suffered fracture, all of whom were euthyroid.CONCLUSION: Thyroid disorder was not found to be associated with Crohn's disease and was not found to increase the risk for fractures. Therefore, screening for thyroid disease is not a necessary component in the management of Crohn's disease.

Surgical treatment of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a retrospective study of 104 cases

Objective: To explore the clinicopathological features, surgical treatment techniques, and prognostic risk factors of intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC).Methods: A total of 104 ICC cases were collected from January 2008 to December 2013 at Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital and divided into the hepatic hilum lymphadenectomy(HLL, 21 cases), extended hepatic hilum lymphadenectomy(EHLL, 12 cases), and non-lymphadenectomy(NL, 71 cases) groups. The clinical data of the patients were retrospectively analyzed, and the prognostic differences were compared among different groups.Results: The 1-, 2-, and 3-year overall survival(OS) rates of all cases were 72.1%, 56.1%, and 43.7%, respectively. The median survival duration was 34 months. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS rates of the HLL group(42.9%, 28.6%, and 28.6%, respectively) were significantly lower than those of the NL group(78.9%, 62.5%, and 47.8%, respectively). Meanwhile, the 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS rates of the EHLL group(75.0%, 56.1%, and 33.3%, respectively) were not significantly different from those of the other two groups.Univariate analysis showed that age, gender, American Joint Committee on Cancer(AJCC) stage, differentiation, ferritin(Fer),carbohydrate antigen19-9(CA19-9) and carcinoembryonicantigen(CEA) levels, lymph node metastasis(LNM), and lymph node dissection(LND) were prognostic factors for the long-term survival of ICC. Meanwhile, multivariate analysis revealed that age,AJCC stage, differentiation, Fer levels, and LNM were independent risk factors for survival.Conclusions: ICC patients will not benefit from lymphadenectomy in the absence of LNM. However, systematic lymphadenectomy may improve ICC outcomes if the location of lymphatic metastasis is known. Age, AJCC stage, differentiation,Fer level, and LNM are independent risk factors for survival in ICC.

Self-organized Criticality in Hierarchical Brain Network

It is shown that the cortical brain network of the macaque displays a hierarchically clustered organizationand the neuron network shows small-world properties.Now the two factors will be considered in our model and thedynamical behavior of the model will be studied.We study the characters of the model and find that the distribution ofavalanche size of the model follows power-law behavior.

Self-Organized Criticality in a Simple Neuron Model Based on Scale-Free Networks

A simple model for a set of interacting idealized neurons in scale-free networks is introduced. The basic elements of the model are endowed with the main features of a neuron function. We find that our model displays powerlaw behavior of avalanche sizes and generates long-range temporal correlation. More importantly, we find different dynamical behavior for nodes with different connectivity in the scale-free networks.

Universality Class in Abelian Sandpile Models with Stochastic Toppling Rules

We present a stochastic critical slope sandpile model, where the amount of grains that fall in an overturning event is stochastic variable. The model is local, conservative, and Abelian. We apply the moment analysis to evaluate critical exponents and finite size scaling method to consistently test the obtained results. Numerical results show that this model, Oslo model, and one-dimensional Abelian Manna model have the same critical behavior although the three models have different stochastic toppling rules, which provides evidences suggesting that Abelian sandpile models with different stochastic toppling rules are in the same universality class.

A Modified Earthquake Model Based on Generalized Barabási-Albert Scale-Free Networks

A modified Olami-Feder-Christenaen model of self-organized criticality on generalized Barabási-Albert （GBA） scale-flee networks is investigated. We find that our mode/ displays power-law behavior and the avalanche dynamical behavior is sensitive to the topological structure of networks. Furthermore, the exponent ~ of the model depends on b, which weights the distance in comparison with the degree in the GBA network evolution.

Non-Specific Factors Involved in the Treatment： Its Influence on Treatment Adherence

Introduction： The effectiveness of treatment depends on the efficacy of the therapy and the level of compliance of the patient. NF （non-specific factors） involved in treatment are all those effects that do not depend on the pharmacological properties of the drug. Materials and Methods： The job lasted a year. The sample consisted of patients with mental health disorders and was divided into two groups. Treatment compliance was measured with the Morisky-Green Test. Results were compared using the chi square test and relative risk. Results and Discussion： Group A had 23 patients ending 91.3% of them and group B of 22 patients, ending the 77.27%. At the beginning of the study, we found in the group A 0.86 NF/patients while in the group B 0.82 NF/patient. At the end of the study there was a 54.65% decrease in group A while in group B the proportion remained. At the beginning of the study both groups had approximately 40% of compliant patients. Data that remained in the control group rose to 80.95% in group A at the end of the study. Conclusions： The work demonstrates the negative influence of these factors on adherence to treatment.

Effect of protective coal seam mining and gas extraction on gas transport in a coal seam

A gas–solid coupling model involving coal seam deformation,gas diffusion and seepage,gas adsorption and desorption was built to study the gas transport rule under the effect of protective coal seam mining.The research results indicate:(1) The depressurization effect changes the stress state of an overlying coal seam and causes its permeability to increase,thus gas in the protected coal seam will be desorbed and transported under the effect of a gas pressure gradient,which will cause a decrease in gas pressure.(2) Gas pressure can be further decreased by setting out gas extraction boreholes in the overlying coal seam,which can effectively reduce the coal and gas outburst risk.The research is of important engineering significance for studying the gas transport rule in protected coal seam and providing important reference for controlling coal and gas outbursts in deep mining in China.

Changes in blood alcohol concentration and driving ability after alcohol intake

Objective: To study the relationship between the amount of consumed alcohol, blood alcohol concentration (BAC), and driving ability among a part of the population in Southwest China and to provide reference for the formulation of the legal limits for safe driving. Methods: Seventy-six randomly selected volunteer drivers each had three times of alcohol intake (100 ml each time). After each drank, BAC was measured with gas chromatograph and driving ability was evaluated. The drivers were grouped according to age, weight, alcohol tolerance and driving experience respectively and changes in BAC and driving ability were analyzed. Results: Average BAC and the percentage of drivers showing impaired driving ability in the groups increased after each intake of 100 ml alcohol. BAC in Group≤60 kg was more susceptible to alcohol than that in Group>60 kg. When each drank, alcohol had greater influence on drivers who had comparatively shorter driving experience. Conclusion: Volume of consumed alcohol, BAC and driving ability have direct associations among one another and are all under the influence of various factors including individual conditions. To set an appropriate legal BAC limit for safe driving should take an overall consideration of all factors.