在系统分析方面,设于维也纳的国际应用系统分析研究所(International Institute for Applied System Analysis,简称IIASA)是个很有名的机构。在1979年我国《世界农业》第三期上,我曾经撰文介绍了匈牙利的农业系统模型,那就是IIASA的成...在系统分析方面,设于维也纳的国际应用系统分析研究所(International Institute for Applied System Analysis,简称IIASA)是个很有名的机构。在1979年我国《世界农业》第三期上,我曾经撰文介绍了匈牙利的农业系统模型,那就是IIASA的成果之一。1981年冬天我们去联合国工业发展组织参加制作世界经济模型。展开更多
Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalizatio...Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.展开更多
Almost a decade has elapsed since the outbreak of the international financial crisis, during which the West was trapped in a dilemma unprecedented since the end of the Second World War. The problems facing the West, p...Almost a decade has elapsed since the outbreak of the international financial crisis, during which the West was trapped in a dilemma unprecedented since the end of the Second World War. The problems facing the West, particularly those of Europe and the US, are fundamental and institutional, including reduced economic superiority, political systems and development models seriously questioned, and increasing terrorist attacks bringing up security chaUenges, to mention just a few. Western obsession with multiple crises is another new factor of change with structural impacts on both the international structure and order over the past nearly thirty years following the disintegration of the Soviet Union and collective rise of emerging economies. The aftermath： the power and influence of the West is declining, with the grand trend of rising East and declining West persisting in the international structure; both Europe and the US have made major adjustments on their foreign strategies, while their value diplomacy offensive has been frustrated, and while trade protectionism is on the rise; and the major power relationship has seen a new round of adjustment. A comprehensive and in-depth understanding of the drastic changes in the West may help China stick to its own development path and promote global governance with more self-confidence so as to make more contributions to world peace, stability and development.展开更多
文摘在系统分析方面,设于维也纳的国际应用系统分析研究所(International Institute for Applied System Analysis,简称IIASA)是个很有名的机构。在1979年我国《世界农业》第三期上,我曾经撰文介绍了匈牙利的农业系统模型,那就是IIASA的成果之一。1981年冬天我们去联合国工业发展组织参加制作世界经济模型。
文摘Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.
文摘Almost a decade has elapsed since the outbreak of the international financial crisis, during which the West was trapped in a dilemma unprecedented since the end of the Second World War. The problems facing the West, particularly those of Europe and the US, are fundamental and institutional, including reduced economic superiority, political systems and development models seriously questioned, and increasing terrorist attacks bringing up security chaUenges, to mention just a few. Western obsession with multiple crises is another new factor of change with structural impacts on both the international structure and order over the past nearly thirty years following the disintegration of the Soviet Union and collective rise of emerging economies. The aftermath： the power and influence of the West is declining, with the grand trend of rising East and declining West persisting in the international structure; both Europe and the US have made major adjustments on their foreign strategies, while their value diplomacy offensive has been frustrated, and while trade protectionism is on the rise; and the major power relationship has seen a new round of adjustment. A comprehensive and in-depth understanding of the drastic changes in the West may help China stick to its own development path and promote global governance with more self-confidence so as to make more contributions to world peace, stability and development.
