This article discusses China＇s economic growth path and the potential challenges to becoming a high-income country by utilizing simulation to provide potential policy responses. The authors believe it is necessary to...This article discusses China＇s economic growth path and the potential challenges to becoming a high-income country by utilizing simulation to provide potential policy responses. The authors believe it is necessary to optimize spatial allocation and promote urbanization, but distorted urbanization must be avoided as it will only perpetuate the current problems. The core strategy is to change government behavior to allow the market to allocate resources. It is important to maintain stable growth in the short term and balance the economic structure in the medium- and long-term. In particular, optimizing spatial allocation must constitute a critical part of the policy adjustment. Only with a viable urbanization model can the country shift from the catch-up pursuit via industrialization to a balanced approach of sustainable growth. This can be done through gradual guidance and policy corrections. China should continue to uphold the ＂scientific concept of development＂ as the overarching principle governing socioeconomic development, and create a unique approach to sustainability where the economy grows steadily, sharing is universal and people live in harmony with nature.展开更多
This paper aims to estimate the effects of changing life style and consumption demands driven by income growth and urbanization on increase of energy requirements in China, and es-timate the impacts of improvement in ...This paper aims to estimate the effects of changing life style and consumption demands driven by income growth and urbanization on increase of energy requirements in China, and es-timate the impacts of improvement in household consumption on mitigating energy requirements towards 2020, based on input-out-put analysis and scenarios simulation approach. The result shows that energy requirement per capita has increased by 159% for urban residents and 147% for rural residents from 1995 to 2004. Growth in household consumption driven by income growth and urbanization may induce a successive increase in energy require-ments in future. Per capita energy requirements of urban residents will increase by 240% during 2002-2015 and 330% during 2002-2020. Urbanization might lead to 0.75 billion ton of increment of energy requirements in 2020. About 45%-48% of total energy requirements in China might be a consequence of residents' life styles and the economic activities to support consumption demands in 2020. Under low-carbon life style scenario, per capita energy requirements of urban residents may decline to 97% in 2015 and 92% in 2020 in contrast with baseline scenario. That implies that China needs to pay a great attention to developing green low-carbon life style in order to realize mitigation target towards 2020.展开更多
文摘This article discusses China＇s economic growth path and the potential challenges to becoming a high-income country by utilizing simulation to provide potential policy responses. The authors believe it is necessary to optimize spatial allocation and promote urbanization, but distorted urbanization must be avoided as it will only perpetuate the current problems. The core strategy is to change government behavior to allow the market to allocate resources. It is important to maintain stable growth in the short term and balance the economic structure in the medium- and long-term. In particular, optimizing spatial allocation must constitute a critical part of the policy adjustment. Only with a viable urbanization model can the country shift from the catch-up pursuit via industrialization to a balanced approach of sustainable growth. This can be done through gradual guidance and policy corrections. China should continue to uphold the ＂scientific concept of development＂ as the overarching principle governing socioeconomic development, and create a unique approach to sustainability where the economy grows steadily, sharing is universal and people live in harmony with nature.
基金supported by Young Science Foundation of Communications University of China (Grant No. XNL1107)
文摘This paper aims to estimate the effects of changing life style and consumption demands driven by income growth and urbanization on increase of energy requirements in China, and es-timate the impacts of improvement in household consumption on mitigating energy requirements towards 2020, based on input-out-put analysis and scenarios simulation approach. The result shows that energy requirement per capita has increased by 159% for urban residents and 147% for rural residents from 1995 to 2004. Growth in household consumption driven by income growth and urbanization may induce a successive increase in energy require-ments in future. Per capita energy requirements of urban residents will increase by 240% during 2002-2015 and 330% during 2002-2020. Urbanization might lead to 0.75 billion ton of increment of energy requirements in 2020. About 45%-48% of total energy requirements in China might be a consequence of residents' life styles and the economic activities to support consumption demands in 2020. Under low-carbon life style scenario, per capita energy requirements of urban residents may decline to 97% in 2015 and 92% in 2020 in contrast with baseline scenario. That implies that China needs to pay a great attention to developing green low-carbon life style in order to realize mitigation target towards 2020.
