13 earthquakes with M 〉 5.0 have been recorded in the northeast region of China since 1970, among which eight medium-strong earthquakes are independent in space and time. Studies of seismicity before these eight medi...13 earthquakes with M 〉 5.0 have been recorded in the northeast region of China since 1970, among which eight medium-strong earthquakes are independent in space and time. Studies of seismicity before these eight medium-strong earthquakes show that small earthquake activity was enhanced before the occurrences. Though seismicity increase is a common phenomenon in the northeast China region, we have difficulty in predicting the medium-strong earthquakes by this phenomenon alone. In order to predict medium-strong earthquakes through se｜smicity increase, this paper tries to propose a new method that calculates small earthquake frequency through the changing pattern of small earthquake activities based on the characteristics of small earthquake activity in the northeast China region. The results show that we can get the obvious anomaly frequency of small earthquakes before medium-strong earthquakes through the new method, and can obtain a medium to short term anomaly index for the northeast China region.展开更多
Seismic gap method is one of the effective earthquake prediction methods using seismicity patterns. However, this method has some limitations and uncertainty when using it singly in predicting earthquakes. This paper ...Seismic gap method is one of the effective earthquake prediction methods using seismicity patterns. However, this method has some limitations and uncertainty when using it singly in predicting earthquakes. This paper puts forward the prediction method using the dynamic seismicity pattern with dynamic implications. This method considers the formation and evolution of the seismic gap on the basis of plate movement and structural characteristics. Through analysis of 26 cases of earthquakes of MS≥5.0 occurring in East China and South China, this paper obtains the relationship between the main shock with seismic gap and active fault's location, as well as the relationship between the seismic gap and location and strike of active faults. Meanwhile, this paper provides a dynamic explanation of the differences in the formation and evolution patterns of the seismic gap between the two regions, thus providing the physical basis for and reducing the uncertainty of predicting earthquakes using the seismic gap method.展开更多
基金sponsored by the 2013 Annual Earthquake Monitory,Forecasting and Research in Seismic Stations Fund,CEA
文摘13 earthquakes with M 〉 5.0 have been recorded in the northeast region of China since 1970, among which eight medium-strong earthquakes are independent in space and time. Studies of seismicity before these eight medium-strong earthquakes show that small earthquake activity was enhanced before the occurrences. Though seismicity increase is a common phenomenon in the northeast China region, we have difficulty in predicting the medium-strong earthquakes by this phenomenon alone. In order to predict medium-strong earthquakes through se｜smicity increase, this paper tries to propose a new method that calculates small earthquake frequency through the changing pattern of small earthquake activities based on the characteristics of small earthquake activity in the northeast China region. The results show that we can get the obvious anomaly frequency of small earthquakes before medium-strong earthquakes through the new method, and can obtain a medium to short term anomaly index for the northeast China region.
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Program of China Earthquake Administration (No. 2006BAC01B02-01-05)Anhui Provincial Science and Technique Foundation (No. 08010302204)Joint Earthquake Science Fundation (A08077)
文摘Seismic gap method is one of the effective earthquake prediction methods using seismicity patterns. However, this method has some limitations and uncertainty when using it singly in predicting earthquakes. This paper puts forward the prediction method using the dynamic seismicity pattern with dynamic implications. This method considers the formation and evolution of the seismic gap on the basis of plate movement and structural characteristics. Through analysis of 26 cases of earthquakes of MS≥5.0 occurring in East China and South China, this paper obtains the relationship between the main shock with seismic gap and active fault's location, as well as the relationship between the seismic gap and location and strike of active faults. Meanwhile, this paper provides a dynamic explanation of the differences in the formation and evolution patterns of the seismic gap between the two regions, thus providing the physical basis for and reducing the uncertainty of predicting earthquakes using the seismic gap method.
