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对增长趋势季节数列测定季节变动方法的一点看法
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作者 徐浪 《统计教育》 2001年第2期16-16,共1页
文章通过对移动平均法和趋势方程拟合法测定增长趋势季节数列的季节变动进行比较,肯定了移动平均法测定季节变动是更好的方法。
关键词 增长趋势季节数列 趋势方程拟合法 移动平均法 季节变动 测定方法
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豆粕需求呈季节性增长
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《北方牧业》 2004年第17期9-9,共1页
国内豆粕需求继续呈现季节性恢复增长,近期国内豆粕现货市场价格继续趋于上扬。9月初.全国豆粕平均价格较前期上涨50元/吨.而个别地区价格涨幅甚至超过百元,其中大连地区豆粕价格整体在2750-2800元/吨之间,华北山东地区油厂报价... 国内豆粕需求继续呈现季节性恢复增长,近期国内豆粕现货市场价格继续趋于上扬。9月初.全国豆粕平均价格较前期上涨50元/吨.而个别地区价格涨幅甚至超过百元,其中大连地区豆粕价格整体在2750-2800元/吨之间,华北山东地区油厂报价基本都在2850元/吨以上,华东地区豆粕报价最高也达到2850元/吨,华南地区油厂报价也均在2850-2880元/吨之间。价格的上扬一定程度上刺激了市场需求的增长,我们认为国内豆粕需求将呈现季节性的恢复增长,具体分析如下。 展开更多
关键词 中国 豆粕市场 市场供求 市场价格 季节增长
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季节型增长趋势电力消费预测研究:基于中国的实证分析 被引量:6
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作者 牛东晓 孟明 《中国管理科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2010年第2期108-112,共5页
以我国月电力消费量为例,研究了季节型增长趋势中长期电力指标的预测问题。提出采用离散小波变换对季节型增长趋势历史数据进行分解并对各频率分解系数分别进行重构,在剔除随机性波动后,将长期增长趋势及各规律性波动趋势通过RBF网络进... 以我国月电力消费量为例,研究了季节型增长趋势中长期电力指标的预测问题。提出采用离散小波变换对季节型增长趋势历史数据进行分解并对各频率分解系数分别进行重构,在剔除随机性波动后,将长期增长趋势及各规律性波动趋势通过RBF网络进行趋势外推预测,进而通过对不同趋势预测结果进行组合得到电力消费量的预测值。实证分析表明,经过离散小波分解处理后,RBF网络样本的规律性得到增强,其在有效模拟非线性变化规律的同时,泛化能力得以提高,因而具有较好的预测精度。 展开更多
关键词 季节增长趋势 离散小波变换 RBF网络 泛化能力
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Estimate of CH_4 Emissions from Year-Round Flooded Rice Fields During Rice Growing Season in China 被引量:99
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作者 CAIZu-Cong KANGGuo-Ding +1 位作者 H.TSURUTA A.MOSIER 《Pedosphere》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2005年第1期66-71,共6页
A special kind of rice field exists in China that is flooded year-round. These rice fields have substantially large CH4 emissions during the rice-growing season and emit CH4 continuously in the non-rice growing season... A special kind of rice field exists in China that is flooded year-round. These rice fields have substantially large CH4 emissions during the rice-growing season and emit CH4 continuously in the non-rice growing season. CH4 emission factors were used to estimate the CH4 emissions from year-round flooded rice fields during the rice-growing season in China. The CH4 emissions for the year-round flooded rice fields in China for the rice growing season over a total area of 2.66 Mha were estimated to be 2.44 Tg CH… 展开更多
关键词 IPCC methodology methane emission rice fields year-round flooded
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Trends in Annual and Seasonal Pan Evaporation in the Lower Yellow River Basin from 1961 to 2010 被引量:7
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作者 JI Xing-Jie WANG Ji-Jun +2 位作者 GU Wan-Long ZHU Ye-Yu LI Feng-Xiu 《Advances in Climate Change Research》 SCIE 2012年第4期195-204,共10页
The annual and seasonal trends in pan evaporation in the lower Yellow River Basin based on quality-controlled data from 10 meteorological stations in 1961-2010 are analyzed. The causes for the changes in annual and se... The annual and seasonal trends in pan evaporation in the lower Yellow River Basin based on quality-controlled data from 10 meteorological stations in 1961-2010 are analyzed. The causes for the changes in annual and seasonal pan evaporation are also discussed. The results suggest that, despite the 1.15~C increasing in annual mean surface air temperature over the past 50 years (0.23°C per decade), the annual pan evaporation has steadily declined by an average rate of-7.65 mm per year. By comparison, this change is greater than those previously reported in China. Significant decreasing trends in annual pan evaporation have been observed at almost all stations. As a whole, seasonal pan evaporation decreased significantly, especially in summer, whereas seasonal temperature increased significantly, except in summer. Thus, the pan evaporation paradox exists in the lower Yellow River Basin. The trend analysis of other meteorological factors indicates significant decrease in sunshine duration and wind speed, but no significant variations in precipitation and relative humidity at annual and seasonal time scales. By examining the relationship between precipitation and pan evaporation, it did not show a concurrent decrease in pan evaporation and increase in precipitation. The partial correlation analysis discovered that the primary cause of decrease in annual and seasonal pan evaporation is the decrease in wind speed. A further examination using a stepwise regression shows that decrease in wind speed and sunshine duration, and increase in mean temperature axe likely to be the main meteorological factors affecting the annual and seasonal pan evaporation in the lower Yellow River Basin over the past 50 years. 展开更多
关键词 lower Yellow River Basin pan evaporation TREND meteorological factors
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Seasonal variation and principle of cyanobacterial biomass and forms in the water source area of Chaohu City, China
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作者 徐宪根 柯凡 +4 位作者 李文朝 冯慕华 尚丽霞 范帆 何延召 《Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2016年第1期34-43,共10页
We investigated seasonal variations in cyanobacterial biomass and the forms of its dominant population (M. aeruginosa) and their correlation with environmental factors in the water source area of Chaohu City, China ... We investigated seasonal variations in cyanobacterial biomass and the forms of its dominant population (M. aeruginosa) and their correlation with environmental factors in the water source area of Chaohu City, China from December 2011 to October 2012. The results show that species belonging to the phylum Cyanophyta occupied the maximum proportion of phytoplankton biomass, and that the dominant population in the water source area of Chaohu City was M. aeruginosa. The variation in cyanobacterial biomass from March to August 2012 was well fitted to the logistic growth model. The growth rate of cyanobacteria was the highest in June, and the biomass of cyanobacteria reached a maximum in August. From February to March 2012, the main form of M. aeruginosa was the single-cell form; M. aeruginosa colonies began to appear from April, and blooms appeared on the water surface in May. The maximum diameter of the colonies was recorded in July, and then gradually decreased from August. The diameter range ofM. aeruginosa colonies was 18.37-237.77μm, and most of the colonies were distributed in the range 20-200μm, comprising 95.5% of the total number of samples. Temperature and photosynthetically active radiation may be the most important factors that influenced the annual variation in M. aeruginosa biomass and forms. The suitable temperature for cyanobaeterial growth was in the range of 15-30℃. In natural water bodies, photosynthetically active radiation had a significant positive influence on the colonial diameter of M. aeruginosa (P〈0.01). 展开更多
关键词 cyanobacterial blooms M. aeruginosa water source area colony diameter seasonal variation
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