Research about the auto commuter＇s pre-trip route choice behavior ignores the combined influence of the real-time information and all respondents＇ historical information in the existing documents.To overcome this sh...Research about the auto commuter＇s pre-trip route choice behavior ignores the combined influence of the real-time information and all respondents＇ historical information in the existing documents.To overcome this shortcoming,an approach to describing the pre-trip route choice behavior with the incorporation of the real-time and historical information is proposed.Two types of real-time information are investigated,which are quantitative information and prescriptive information.By using the bounded rationality theory,the influence of historical information on the real-time information reference process is examined first.Estimation results show that the historical information has a significant influence on the quantitative information reference process,but not on the prescriptive information reference process.Then the route choice behavior is modeled.A comparison is also made among three route choice models,one of which does not incorporate the real-time information reference process,while the others do.Estimation results show that the route choice behavior is better described with the consideration of the reference process of both quantitative and prescriptive information.展开更多
This paper presented a game theoretic model to study the competition for a single investment oppertunity under uncertainty. It models the hazard rate of investment as a function of competitors' trigger level. Unde...This paper presented a game theoretic model to study the competition for a single investment oppertunity under uncertainty. It models the hazard rate of investment as a function of competitors' trigger level. Under uncertainty and different information structure, the option and game theory was applied to researching the optimal Nash equilibrium strategies of one or more firm. By means of Matlab software, the paper simulates a real estate developing project example and illustrates how parameter affects investment strategies. The paper's work will contribute to the present investment practice in China.展开更多
There are many kinds of real options,which are valuable,in each phase of the lifetime of an information technology(IT)project.However,in the current IT investment decision theory,real options that embedded in IT proje...There are many kinds of real options,which are valuable,in each phase of the lifetime of an information technology(IT)project.However,in the current IT investment decision theory,real options that embedded in IT projects are not considered. In this paper, the process of IT project decision and implementation is fully analyzed, the real options that may be embedded in an IT project are identified, and a real option analysis (ROA) method is proposed for evaluation of an IT project under uncertain business environment. ROA employs Black-Scholes expansion model and cancels the assumption that the cost of project is certain. The numerical example manifests that the ROA can better evaluate IT project and select the IT investment alternative. Finally, a road map is provided to help selecting the suitable evaluation method to make IT investment decision.展开更多
基金The Scientific Research Innovation Project for College Graduates in Jiangsu Province(No.CX10B_071Z)the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)(No.2011AA110304)
文摘Research about the auto commuter＇s pre-trip route choice behavior ignores the combined influence of the real-time information and all respondents＇ historical information in the existing documents.To overcome this shortcoming,an approach to describing the pre-trip route choice behavior with the incorporation of the real-time and historical information is proposed.Two types of real-time information are investigated,which are quantitative information and prescriptive information.By using the bounded rationality theory,the influence of historical information on the real-time information reference process is examined first.Estimation results show that the historical information has a significant influence on the quantitative information reference process,but not on the prescriptive information reference process.Then the route choice behavior is modeled.A comparison is also made among three route choice models,one of which does not incorporate the real-time information reference process,while the others do.Estimation results show that the route choice behavior is better described with the consideration of the reference process of both quantitative and prescriptive information.
文摘This paper presented a game theoretic model to study the competition for a single investment oppertunity under uncertainty. It models the hazard rate of investment as a function of competitors' trigger level. Under uncertainty and different information structure, the option and game theory was applied to researching the optimal Nash equilibrium strategies of one or more firm. By means of Matlab software, the paper simulates a real estate developing project example and illustrates how parameter affects investment strategies. The paper's work will contribute to the present investment practice in China.
文摘There are many kinds of real options,which are valuable,in each phase of the lifetime of an information technology(IT)project.However,in the current IT investment decision theory,real options that embedded in IT projects are not considered. In this paper, the process of IT project decision and implementation is fully analyzed, the real options that may be embedded in an IT project are identified, and a real option analysis (ROA) method is proposed for evaluation of an IT project under uncertain business environment. ROA employs Black-Scholes expansion model and cancels the assumption that the cost of project is certain. The numerical example manifests that the ROA can better evaluate IT project and select the IT investment alternative. Finally, a road map is provided to help selecting the suitable evaluation method to make IT investment decision.
