巴西橡胶树乙烯利刺激增产效应早期预测方法的研究

为选择高效的巴西橡胶树乙烯利刺激增产效应早期预测方法，对“蓬距刺激法”、“茎干针刺法”和“刺激试割法”３ 种预测方法进行比较研究。结果表明：１ 龄苗用“茎干针刺法”预测的准确度最高，选对率达７６－７ ％ ，误选率１６－７ ％ ，漏选率６－６％ 。

气井动态储量早期预测方法

气井动态储量预测通常需要获取两个以上的地层压力或者进入产量递减阶段以后才能进行。充分利用油气生产数据，在没有目前地层压力的情况下进行动态储量早期预测，解决了储量评价与生产的矛盾。通过在XC沙溪庙等气井的应用，收到了很好的效果。

苹果和梨品种收获果实大小分布的早期预测

对苹果果实大小的预测在历史上是根椐正常季节的果实测量数据和平均作物负载来进行的；在环境条件发生变化时，这些预测模式在几年间都不准确。本文在局部地区调查研究了平均分布的早期预测方法取代只根据收获时平均果实大小的预测方法。评价了盛花后42天和收获时的作物负载及果实大小间的关系。气候和品种的影响导致开发出了对每个品种和每个地区所特有的预测公式。

Discussion on Earthquake Forecasting and Early Warning

Through analysis of natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting,the relationship between the natural and social attributes of earthquake forecasting(early warning)has been discussed.Regarding the natural attributes of earthquake forecasting,it only attempts to forecast the magnitude,location and occurrence time of future earthquake based on the analysis of observational data and relevant theories and taking into consideration the present understanding of seismogeny and earthquake generation.It need not consider the consequences an earthquake forecast involves,and its purpose is to check out the level of scientific understanding of earthquakes.In respect of the social aspect of earthquake forecasting,people also focus on the consequence that the forecasting involves,in addition to its natural aspect,such as the uncertainty of earthquake prediction itself,the impact of earthquake prediction,and the earthquake resistant capability of structures(buildings),lifeline works,etc.In a word,it highlights the risk of earthquake forecasting and tries to mitigate the earthquake hazard as much as possible.In this paper,the authors also discuss the scientific and social challenges faced in earthquake prediction and analyze preliminarily the meanings and content of earthquake early warning.