宏观预测在政策研究、行业分析、金融投资之中作用重大,对宏观预测行为的分析具有重要意义。专业机构的宏观共识预测是否存在Tversky and Kahneman(1974)提出的"锚定偏差"?国外学术界对此问题的研究由来已久,但目前尚未见到...宏观预测在政策研究、行业分析、金融投资之中作用重大,对宏观预测行为的分析具有重要意义。专业机构的宏观共识预测是否存在Tversky and Kahneman(1974)提出的"锚定偏差"?国外学术界对此问题的研究由来已久,但目前尚未见到有文献探讨我国专业机构的共识预测是否也存在锚定偏差问题。本文借鉴Campbell and Sharpe(2007)的方法,采用北京大学中国经济研究中心历次"朗润预测"季度数据,研究发现:在一些主要宏观指标的共识预测中也存在"锚定偏差"。展开更多
AIM: To evaluate the feasibility, reproducibility and efficacy of a new tissue anchoring device in a porcine survival model. METHODS: Gastrotomies were performed using a needle-knife and balloon dilator in 10 female Y...AIM: To evaluate the feasibility, reproducibility and efficacy of a new tissue anchoring device in a porcine survival model. METHODS: Gastrotomies were performed using a needle-knife and balloon dilator in 10 female Yorkshire pigs weighing 30-35 kg. Gastric closure was attempted using a new tissue anchoring device. The tightness of the closure was confirmed by means of air insufflation and the ability to maintain gastric distension with stability in peritoneal pressure measured with a Veress needle. All animals were monitored daily for signs of peritonitis and sepsis over 14 d. During necropsy, the peritoneal cavity and the gastric access site were examined.RESULTS: Transgastric access, closure and 14 d survival was achieved in all pigs. The mean closure time was 18.1 ± 19.2 min and a mean of 2.1 ± 1 devices were used. Supplementary clips were necessary in 2 cases. The closure time was progressively reduced (24.8 ± 13.9 min in the first 5 pigs vs 11.4 ± 5.9 min in the last 5, P = NS). At necropsy, the gastric access site was correctly closed in all cases with all brace-bars present. One device was misplaced in the mesocolon. Minimal adhesions were observed in 3 pigs and signs of mild peritonitis and adhesions in one. CONCLUSIONS: The use of this new tissue anchoring device in porcine stomachs is feasible, reproducible and effective and requires a short learning curve.展开更多
文摘宏观预测在政策研究、行业分析、金融投资之中作用重大,对宏观预测行为的分析具有重要意义。专业机构的宏观共识预测是否存在Tversky and Kahneman(1974)提出的"锚定偏差"?国外学术界对此问题的研究由来已久,但目前尚未见到有文献探讨我国专业机构的共识预测是否也存在锚定偏差问题。本文借鉴Campbell and Sharpe(2007)的方法,采用北京大学中国经济研究中心历次"朗润预测"季度数据,研究发现:在一些主要宏观指标的共识预测中也存在"锚定偏差"。
基金Supported by A Grant from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III(PI08/90026)
文摘AIM: To evaluate the feasibility, reproducibility and efficacy of a new tissue anchoring device in a porcine survival model. METHODS: Gastrotomies were performed using a needle-knife and balloon dilator in 10 female Yorkshire pigs weighing 30-35 kg. Gastric closure was attempted using a new tissue anchoring device. The tightness of the closure was confirmed by means of air insufflation and the ability to maintain gastric distension with stability in peritoneal pressure measured with a Veress needle. All animals were monitored daily for signs of peritonitis and sepsis over 14 d. During necropsy, the peritoneal cavity and the gastric access site were examined.RESULTS: Transgastric access, closure and 14 d survival was achieved in all pigs. The mean closure time was 18.1 ± 19.2 min and a mean of 2.1 ± 1 devices were used. Supplementary clips were necessary in 2 cases. The closure time was progressively reduced (24.8 ± 13.9 min in the first 5 pigs vs 11.4 ± 5.9 min in the last 5, P = NS). At necropsy, the gastric access site was correctly closed in all cases with all brace-bars present. One device was misplaced in the mesocolon. Minimal adhesions were observed in 3 pigs and signs of mild peritonitis and adhesions in one. CONCLUSIONS: The use of this new tissue anchoring device in porcine stomachs is feasible, reproducible and effective and requires a short learning curve.
